“The most dangerous man to any government is the man who is able to think things out for himself, without regard to the prevailing superstitions and taboos. Almost inevitably he comes to the conclusion that the government he lives under is dishonest, insane, and intolerable.” H. L. Mencken
I was far too busy before the election, and I gave only just noticed this thread. If I had made a prediction, I would probably have predicted about 10 Lib Dem gains from Conservative, about 10 SNP gains, and almost no Conservative gains.
Ashfield - right 1 Barrow and Furness - right 2 Bassetlaw - right 3 Bedford - wrong 1 Bishop Auckland - right 4 Blackpool South - right 5 Crewe & Nantwich - right 6 Darlington - right 7 Derby North - right 8 Don Valley - right 9 Dudley North - right 10 Great Grimsby - right 11 Keighley - right 12 Kensington - right 13 Lincoln - right 14 Newcastle under Lyme - right 15 Penistone & Stocksbridge - right 16 Peterborough - right 17 Rother Valley - right 18 Scunthorpe - right 19 Stockton South - right 20 Stoke North - right 21 Vale of Clwyd - right 22 Wakefield - right 23 West Bromwich West - right 24 Wrexham - right 25
Con Gain from LD
Eastbourne - right 26 North Norfolk - right 27
LD Gain from Con
Cheadle - wrong 2 Cheltenham - wrong 3 Richmond Park - right 28 St Albans - right 29 South Cambridgeshire -wrong 4 Wimbledon - wrong 5 Winchester - wrong 6
Post by Robert Waller on Dec 17, 2019 13:59:31 GMT
That's fine, manchesterman. I run a non-league football prediction competition ever week so I know the adding up can be difficult, I make mistakes myself and always ask the competitors to check their own scores. Thank you very much for going to the trouble of organising this interesting exercise!
Ashfield Barrow and Furness Bassetlaw Bedford Bishop Auckland Blackpool South Bury South Clwyd South Colne Valley Coventry South Crew & Nantwich Darlington Derby North Dewsbury Don Valey Dudley North Gower Great Grimsby High Peak Ipswich Keighley Kensington Lincoln Newcastle under Lyme Penistone & Stocksbridge Peterborough Rother Valley Scunthorpe Stockton South Stoke North Stroud Vale of Clwyd Wakefield Warrington South Warwick & Leamington Weaver Vale Wolverhampton South West Wrexham Con Gain from LD (2)
Eastbourne North Norfolk
LD Gain from Con (6)
Cheltenham Richmond Park St Albans St Ives Wimbledeon Winchester
LD Gain from Lab (1)
Sheffield Hallam LD Gain from SNP (1)
North East Fife
Lab Gain from Con (2)
Hastings & Rye Putney SNP Gain from Con (2)
Ochil & South Perthshire Stirling
SNP Gain from Lab (4)
East Lothian Glasgow NE Midlothian Rutherglen
Plaid Cymru Gain from Lab (1)
Yns Mon DUP Gain from Ind (1)
North Down SDLP Gain from DUP (1)
Belfast South SDLP Gain from SF (1)
Con 348 Lab 219 SNP 40 LD 18 DUP 10 SF 6 PC 5 SDLP 2
Speaker 1 (If that should be down as a gain then obviously I'm predicting that as gain from Labour and Buckingham as a Conservative 'gain' from Speaker)
Edit @ 11:15 - I've added Warwick & Leamington. This does not change the totals listed above which would have included that seat as I had predicted it as a gain per my spreadhseet but had neglected to include it in the list of gains. Feel free to disallow its inclusion if this is past the deadline (especially if Labour hold it!)
I'm pretty happy with this set of predictions as I feel I caught the fundamental shape of the results. I predicted only very modest Conservative gains from Labour in the South of England - Bedford, Kensington, Ipswich, Peterborough and Stroud and all of these transpired except for Bedford which was by the smallest of margins. I also correctly predicted Labour's solitary gain in Putney (though incorrectly predicted a similar result in Hastings (for which I principally blame rivers10 for making such a strong argument for that outcome). I did less well in the Lib Dem Conservative battleground here but still correctly predicted two of the Conservative gains and two of the Lib Dem gains. I predicted four Lib Dem gains which didn't happen but three of these (Cheltenham, Wimbledon and Winchester) were lost by three-figure margins - likewise the loss of Carshalton which I failed to predict.
In the North, Midlands and (principally North) Wales I correctly predicted large scale Conservative gains from Labour though I underestimated these in the North East, Lancashire and the Black Country in particular. Meanwhile I called four incorrectly but again three of these were with three-figure margins (Coventry South, Warwick & Leamington and Weaver Vale). Similarly some of those I failed to predict such as Bury North and Bolton NE I had regarded as 'too close to call' but came down on the wrong side of the fence and were also missed by very small margins. I correctly predicted all the Conservative gains in Yorkshire & The Humber and made no incorrect predictions of gains there except for the dreaded Sheffield Hallam.
In Scotland my predictions were not too great. I got that the SNP were advancing against both Conservatives and Labour but was well out on the scale of this. My predictions a month out from the election envisaged far greater SNP gains from the Conservatives, pretty much along the lines of what occurred but I was persuaded by the Scottish Conservative contingent here that the situation was looking much better. They had a very good record in 2017 and indeed I remain grateful to them for the very good return I had from the bookies then so I was bound to take their views seriously. What happened in the event was anti-Tory tactical voting rather than pro-Unionist tactical voting and that should have been foreseeable.