GE 2019 - seat gains competition

[manchesterman]

I, the returning officer, in the seat gains competition, do hereby give notice that the number of points for each contestant in the said competition is as follows:

37 Tony Otim

36 manchesterman

35 Pete Whitehead

32 jacoblamsden

29 Richard Cromwell

28  Robert Waller

27 carlton43

22 akmd

18 mondialito

17 Lifeless

15 pepperminttea

11 lancastrian

4 edgbaston

3 greenhert

3 robbienicoll

2 LDCaerdydd

-8 peterl

[manchesterman]

So glad I didnt win. Organisers winning competitions is never a good look!

Right I'm off - may do a short commentary on the more interesting bits & pieces when I get back but will be awol most of the day now.

Of course, warmest congrats to Tony Otim

[peterl]

Wow, last place. Oh well, this was a Brexit election and that explains everything. Well that line seems to be working for Labour anyway.

I'd like to thank the returning officer for organising this competition and to everyone who didn't win at this election for making this all possible.

[Robert Waller]

Thanks, those figures roughly approximate to mine, but I would suggest each 'candidate' checks in a 're-count' as they do not agree exactly ... maybe I applied the rules wrongly.

(I made my score 28)

[Lifeless]

Wow not the disaster minus points I was expecting, suppose all those Tory seats I listed helped outweigh the rest

[greenhert]

I was too optimistic about this election....

I at least correctly predicted that Plaid Cymru would hold Ceredigion and that the only SNP loss would be in North East Fife (which incidentally had the lowest Labour vote this year, 3.7%).

[Tony Otim]

I underestimated the scale of the Conservative advance in England and Wales, but scraped ahead by getting 55/59 Scottish seats and 17/18 Northern Irish ones right.

[johnloony]

I was far too busy before the election, and I gave only just noticed this thread.
If I had made a prediction, I would probably have predicted about 10 Lib Dem gains from Conservative, about 10 SNP gains, and almost no Conservative gains.

[mondialito]

In 2015 I predicted a Hung Parliament and the Tories won a majority.

In 2017, I predicted a Tory Majority and the result was a Hung Parliament.

In 2019, I predict a Hung Parliament and the Tories win a majority not far off what I thought they would get in 2017.

Huh.

[Tony Otim]

Dec 15, 2019 13:05:11 GMT mondialito said:

In 2015 I predicted a Hung Parliament and the Tories won a majority.

In 2017, I predicted a Tory Majority and the result was a Hung Parliament.

In 2019, I predict a Hung Parliament and the Tories win a majority not far off what I thought they would get in 2017.

Huh.

So what you're saying is it's basically all your fault 😉

[Deleted]

Just as well I didn't get my predictions in on time 

[manchesterman]

Dec 15, 2019 13:05:11 GMT mondialito said:

In 2015 I predicted a Hung Parliament and the Tories won a majority.

In 2017, I predicted a Tory Majority and the result was a Hung Parliament.

In 2019, I predict a Hung Parliament and the Tories win a majority not far off what I thought they would get in 2017.

Huh.

Please predict  a  Tory landslide next time

[manchesterman]

Dec 14, 2019 13:28:25 GMT Robert Waller said:

Thanks, those figures roughly approximate to mine, but I would suggest each 'candidate' checks in a 're-count' as they do not agree exactly ... maybe I applied the rules wrongly.

(I made my score 28)

Is this an official request for a recount? 

I recorded 51 predictions for you.

38 were correct = 38

13 were incorrect = -13

All gains were 1pt gains.

[manchesterman]

The only 3pt+ prediction that came off was the APNI gain in North Down made by Tony Otim and mondialito

Some stellar punts included:

Blyth Valley DurhamNW Heywood/Middleton, Burnley Leigh W Brom E Redcar - Richard Cromwell [although he did predict a total of 97 gains so he was casting his net quite wide!!]

pepperminttea and carlton43 also picked up Sedgefield

Also I managed to predict 11/11 gains successfully in Scotland (Tony got 10/10) and I was also pleased yet frustrated at correctly predicting just one Labour gain all night and nailing it.

[Robert Waller]

Dec 12, 2019 14:10:29 GMT Robert Waller said:

Con Gain from Lab

Ashfield - right 1
Barrow and Furness - right 2
Bassetlaw - right 3
Bedford - wrong 1
Bishop Auckland - right 4
Blackpool South - right 5
Crewe & Nantwich - right 6
Darlington - right 7
Derby North - right 8
Don Valley - right 9
Dudley North - right 10
Great Grimsby - right 11
Keighley - right 12
Kensington - right 13
Lincoln - right 14
Newcastle under Lyme - right 15
Penistone & Stocksbridge - right 16
Peterborough - right 17
Rother Valley - right 18
Scunthorpe - right 19
Stockton South - right 20
Stoke North - right 21
Vale of Clwyd - right 22
Wakefield - right 23
West Bromwich West - right 24
Wrexham - right 25

Con Gain from LD

Eastbourne - right 26
North Norfolk - right 27

LD Gain from Con

Cheadle - wrong 2
Cheltenham - wrong 3
Richmond Park - right 28
St Albans - right 29
South Cambridgeshire -wrong 4
Wimbledon - wrong 5
Winchester - wrong 6

LD Gain from Lab

Sheffield Hallam - wrong 7

Lab Gain from Con

Chipping Barnet - wrong 8
Hastings & Rye - wrong 9
Putney - right 30

SNP Gain from Con

Gordon - right 31
Ochil & South Perthshire - right 32
Renfrewshire East - right 33
Stirling - right 34

SNP Gain from Lab

East Lothian - right 35
Glasgow NE - right 36
Midlothian - right 37
Rutherglen - right 38

Plaid Cymru Gain from Lab

Ynys Mon - wrong 10

DUP Gain from Ind

North Down - wrong 11

SDLP Gain from DUP

Belfast South -right 39

Not in competition
C gain Buckingham from Speaker
Speaker gain Chorley from Lab

= Right 39, wrong 11, total 28
Do correct me ...

[manchesterman]

Sincere apologies Robert.

My database had you as predicting gains in Cardiff N & Canterbury, and I didnt have Don Valley down. I will correct the table

[Robert Waller]

That's fine, manchesterman.
I run a non-league football prediction competition ever week so I know the adding up can be difficult, I make mistakes myself and always ask the competitors to check their own scores.
Thank you very much for going to the trouble of organising this interesting exercise!

[Pete Whitehead]

Dec 11, 2019 18:53:48 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Con Gain from Lab (38)

Ashfield
Barrow and Furness
Bassetlaw
Bedford
Bishop Auckland
Blackpool South
Bury South
Clwyd South
Colne Valley
Coventry South
Crew & Nantwich
Darlington
Derby North
Dewsbury
Don Valey
Dudley North
Gower
Great Grimsby
High Peak
Ipswich
Keighley
Kensington
Lincoln
Newcastle under Lyme
Penistone & Stocksbridge
Peterborough
Rother Valley
Scunthorpe
Stockton South
Stoke North
Stroud
Vale of Clwyd
Wakefield
Warrington South
Warwick & Leamington
Weaver Vale
Wolverhampton South West
Wrexham

Con Gain from LD (2)

Eastbourne
North Norfolk

LD Gain from Con (6)

Cheltenham
Richmond Park
St Albans
St Ives
Wimbledeon
Winchester

LD Gain from Lab (1)

Sheffield Hallam

LD Gain from SNP (1)

North East Fife

Lab Gain from Con (2)

Hastings & Rye
Putney

SNP Gain from Con (2)

Ochil & South Perthshire
Stirling

SNP Gain from Lab (4)

East Lothian
Glasgow NE
Midlothian
Rutherglen

Plaid Cymru Gain from Lab (1)

Yns Mon

DUP Gain from Ind (1)

North Down

SDLP Gain from DUP (1)

Belfast South

SDLP Gain from SF (1)

Foyle





Con 348
Lab  219
SNP   40
LD     18
DUP  10
SF       6
PC      5
SDLP  2

Grn    1

Speaker 1 (If that should be down as a gain then obviously I'm predicting that as gain from Labour and Buckingham as a Conservative 'gain' from Speaker)


Edit @ 11:15 - I've added Warwick & Leamington. This does not change the totals listed above which would have included that seat as I had predicted it as a gain per my spreadhseet but had neglected to include it in the list of gains. Feel free to disallow its inclusion if this is past the deadline (especially if Labour hold it!)

I'm pretty happy with this set of predictions as I feel I caught the fundamental shape of the results. I predicted only very modest Conservative gains from Labour in the South of England - Bedford, Kensington, Ipswich, Peterborough and Stroud and all of these transpired except for Bedford which was by the smallest of margins. I also correctly predicted Labour's solitary gain in Putney (though incorrectly predicted a similar result in Hastings (for which I principally blame rivers10 for making such a strong argument for that outcome).
I did less well in the Lib Dem Conservative battleground here but still correctly predicted two of the Conservative gains and two of the Lib Dem gains. I predicted four Lib Dem gains which didn't happen but three of these (Cheltenham, Wimbledon and Winchester) were lost by three-figure margins - likewise the loss of Carshalton which I failed to predict.

In the North, Midlands and (principally North) Wales I correctly predicted large scale Conservative gains from Labour though I underestimated these in the North East, Lancashire and the Black Country in particular. Meanwhile I called four incorrectly but again three of these were with three-figure margins (Coventry South, Warwick & Leamington and Weaver Vale). Similarly some of those I failed to predict such as Bury North and Bolton NE I had regarded as 'too close to call' but came down on the wrong side of the fence and were also missed by very small margins. I correctly predicted all the Conservative gains in Yorkshire & The Humber and made no incorrect predictions of gains there except for the dreaded Sheffield Hallam.

In Scotland my predictions were not too great. I got that the SNP were advancing against both Conservatives and Labour but was well out on the scale of this. My predictions a month out from the election envisaged far greater SNP gains from the Conservatives, pretty much along the lines of what occurred but I was persuaded by the Scottish Conservative contingent here that the situation was looking much better. They had a very good record in 2017 and indeed I remain grateful to them for the very good return I had from the bookies then so I was bound to take their views seriously. What happened in the event was anti-Tory tactical voting rather than pro-Unionist tactical voting and that should have been foreseeable.