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Post by Lifeless on Dec 11, 2019 21:55:52 GMT
Ashford is indeed what I predicted to go Con to Ind. The chance of it is near none, but I wanted to go for an out-there prediction to round up. Thanks for checking though!
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Post by pepperminttea on Dec 11, 2019 23:12:18 GMT
Here's my prediction. I don't expect that it'll be anywhere near correct though, in fact it'll probably be hilariously wrong but I decided to go with gut instinct as opposed to just following the polls like I've done in the past.
Conservative gain from Labour (34):
Ipswich
Peterborough
Derby North
Bolsover
Ashfield
Bassetlaw
Dudley North
Wolverhampton South West
Wolverhampton North East
West Bromwich West
Stoke-on-Trent Central
Stoke-on-Trent North
Newcastle under Lyme
Crewe and Nantwich
Bolton North East
Blackpool South
Barrow and Furness
Workington
Rother Valley
Penistone and Stocksbridge
Great Grimsby
Scunthorpe
Wakefield
Stockton South
Darlington
Bishop Auckland
Sedgefield
Wrexham
Vale of Clwyd
Clwyd South
Delyn
Gower
Bridgend
East Lothian
Lib Dem gain from Conservative (11):
Cheltenham
Esher and Walton
Guildford
Wokingham
Winchester
Richmond Park
Wimbledon
St Albans
South Cambridgeshire
Cheadle
Hazel Grove
Labour gain from Conservative (9):
Hastings and Rye
Milton Keynes North
Milton Keynes South
Chipping Barnet
Putney
Chingford and Woodford Green
Norwich North
Watford
Calder Valley
Conservative gain from SNP (4):
Lanark and Hamilton East
Central Ayrshire
Argyll and Bute
Perth and North Perthshire
Conservative gain from Lib Dem (3):
Eastbourne
Carshalton and Wallington
North Norfolk
SNP gain from Labour (2):
Glasgow North East
Rutherglen and Hamilton West
Lib Dem gain from Labour (1):
Sheffield Hallam
Plaid Cymru gain from Labour (1):
Ynys Mon
SNP gain from Conservative (1):
Stirling
Lib Dem gain from SNP (1):
North East Fife
Labour gain from SNP (1):
Edinburgh North and Leith
DUP gain from Independent (1):
North Down
SDLP gain from Sinn Fein (2):
Foyle
South Down
SDLP gain from DUP (1):
Belfast South
Alliance gain from DUP (1):
Belfast East
Conservative: 338 (+20)
Labour: 234 (-28)
SNP: 32 (-3)
Lib Dem: 22 (+10)
DUP: 9 (-1)
Plaid Cymru: 5 (+1)
Sinn Fein: 5 (-2)
SDLP: 3 (+3)
Green: 1 (=)
Alliance: 1 (+1)
Independent: 0 (-1)
I've decided to go with a bit of a different projection, basically a full scale map realignment with the Tories gaining in the North (Skinner losing) and Labour in the South (IDS losing) albeit one with a pro-Tory swing. Despite their poor campaign I reckon the Lib Dems will save face with some excellent results in the Home Counties netting 10 extra seats even as the do poorly down in the West Country (missing St Ives) and get abysmal vote shares in most of the Midlands and North. In an upset Tom Brake loses his seat though. Wales is good for the Tories despite the projections to the contrary. The real loser in my prediction though is old Jimmy Krankie who does achieve some strong results in Glasgow and other 'Yes' parts of the Central Belt (though narrowly failing to take back Coatbridge) but does poorly elsewhere with the Tories performing very strongly.
Note: I'm counting Buckingham as a Tory hold and Chorley as a Labour hold.
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mondialito
Labour
Everything is horribly, brutally possible.
Posts: 4,961 
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Post by mondialito on Dec 12, 2019 0:26:43 GMT
Squeaky Bum Time. I anticipate a much closer result than the polls suggest. My predicted seat gains add up to a Hung Parliament, but I have thrown in a couple of wildcards.
Con Gains from Lab (19)Barrow and Furness Bassetlaw Bishop Auckland Blackpool South Bolton North East Crewe and Nantwich Derby North Dudley North Great Grimsby Ipswich Keighley Newcastle-under-Lyme
Penistone and Stocksbridge Peterborough Stockton South Stoke-on-Trent North Vale of Clwyd Warwick and Leamington Wrexham
Con Gain from LD (1)
North Norfolk
Lab Gains from Con (7)
Calder Valley
Chingford and Woodford Green
Chipping Barnet
Hastings and Rye
Milton Keynes South
Norwich North
Putney
SNP Gains from Con (3)
Aberdeen South
Angus
Stirling
SNP Gains from Lab (3)
Glasgow North East
Midlothian
Rutherglen and Hamilton West
LD Gains from Con (7+1)
Brecon and Radnorshire*
Cheadle
Cheltenham
Hazel Gorve
Richmond Park
St. Albans
St. Ives
Winchester
LD Gain from SNP (1)
North East Fife
LD Gain from Lab (1)
Sheffield Hallam
PC Gain from Lab (1)
Ynys Môn
Ind Gain from Lab (1)
Ashfield
SDLP Gain from DUP (1)
Belfast South
SDLP Gain from SF (1)
Foyle
APNI Gain from Ind (1)
North Down
Speaker
Chorley
This leads to top line figures of: CON 320 (+3) LAB 243 (-19) SNP 40 (+5) LD 21 (+9) DUP 9 (-1) SF 6 (-1) PC 5 (+1) SDLP 2 (+2) Green 1 (NC) Independent 1
APNI 1 (+1) Speaker 1
Depending on who sits on the Labour benches, that could mean a more remainer Parliament than the last one and another round of fun and games before yet another early election.
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
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Post by timmullen1 on Dec 12, 2019 0:39:15 GMT
Don't know enough to enter this competition, best of luck to the all knowledgeable ones who do enter. 👽 Me too, and I also have a propensity to be the kiss of death (sometimes literally) for anyone (or anything) I choose, including having my Grand National pick put to sleep three consecutive years 😢 All I’ll say is my totally unreliable instinct tells me we’ll be looking at a substantial Conservative majority in roughly 26 hours, so I hope my streak for being totally and utterly wrong continues for at least one more time. |
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Post by manchesterman on Dec 12, 2019 0:46:01 GMT
Some interesting predictions in the last 48 hours!
I just realised I havent posted mine yet and Im goign to bed now so I will do it when I get back from work tomorrow..anyone else fancy a bash?
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carlton43
Reform Party
Posts: 50,886
Member is Online
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Post by carlton43 on Dec 12, 2019 11:23:13 GMT
I am ignoring the Old and the New Speaker seats and regarding the former as Conservative Hold and the latter as Speaker.
I am basing on 2017 with no regard to an intervening by-elections so Peterborough is a Conservative Gain and Brecon and Radnor is a Conservative Hold.
I am forecasting no gains for
UKIP
BP
PC
Greens
Sundry Independents
I make no forecasts for NI and regard is as 18 Opposition seats.
LD Gains from Conservative (2)
Richmond Park
Hazel Grove
SNP Gain from Conservative (1)
Stirling
SNP Gains from LDs (2)
Caithness Sutherland & Easter Ross
Dumbartonshire East
SNP Gains from Labour (7)
Rutherglen and Hamilton West
Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath
Glasgow North East
Midlothian
Coatbridge Chryston and Bellshill
East Lothian
Edinburgh South
Labour Gain from SNP (1)
East Kilbride Strathaven and Lesmahagow
Labour Gains from Conservatives (3)
Hastings and Rye
Chipping Barnet
Putney
Conservative Gains from SNP (4)
Perth and North Perthshire
Lanark and Hamilton East
Argyll and Bute
Ayrshire North and Arran
Conservative Gains from LDs (5)
Oxford West and Abingdon
Westmorland and Lonsdale
Carshalton and Wallington
Eastbourne
Norfolk North
Conservative Gains from Labour (38)
Kensington
Dudley North
Newcastle-under-Lyme
Crewe and Nantwich
Canterbury
Barrow and Furness
Keighley
Ashfield
Bishop Auckland
Peterborough
Colne Valley
Ipswich
Stockton South
Warwick and Leamington
Penistone and Stocksbridge
Lincoln
Derby North
High Peak
Wakefield
Wolverhampton South West
Wrexham
Stoke-on-Trent North
Dewsbury
Reading East
Gower
Great Grimsby
Darlington
Rother Valley
Scunthorpe
Bassetlaw
Workington
Dagenham and Rainham
Birmingham Northfield
Bridgend
Halifax
Don Valley
Bolsover
Sedgefield
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Dec 12, 2019 11:28:38 GMT
I am ignoring the Old and the New Speaker seats and regarding the former as Conservative Hold and the latter as Speaker. I am basing on 2017 with no regard to an intervening by-elections so Peterborough is a Conservative Gain and Brecon and Radnor is a Conservative Hold. I am forecasting no gains for UKIP BP PC Greens Sundry Independents I make no forecasts for NI and regard is as 18 Opposition seats. LD Gains from Conservative Richmond Park Hazel Grove SNP Gain from Conservative Stirling SNP Gains from LDs Caithness Sutherland & Easter Ross Dumbartonshire Rast SNP Gains from Labour Rutherglen and Hamilton West Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath Glasgow North East Midlothian Coatbridge Chryston and Bellshill East lothian Edinburgh South Labour Gain from SNP East Kilbride Strathaven and Lesmahagow Labour Gains from Conservatives Hastings and Rye Chipping Barnet Putney Conservative Gains from SNP Perth and East Perthshire Lanark and Hamilton East Argyll and Bute Ayrshire North and Arran Conservative Gains from LDs Oxford West and Abingdon Westmorland and Lonsdale Carshalton and Wallington Eastbourne Norfolk North Conservative Gains from Labour Kensington Dudley North Newcastle-under-Lyme Crewe and Nantwich Canterbury Barrow and Furness Keithley Ashfield Bishop Auckland Peterborough Colne Valley Ipswich Stockton South Warwick and Leamington Penistone and Stocksbridge Lincoln Derby North High peak Wakefield Wolverhampton South West Wrexham Stoke-on-Trent North Dewsbury Reading East Gower Great Grimsby Darlington Rother Valley Scunthorpe Bassetlaw Workington Dagenham and Rainham Birmingham Northfield Bridgend Halifax Don Valley Bolsover Sedgefield A few interesting ones there 😉. On a pedantic note, there's not been a Perth and East Perthshire seat since 1983. |
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Post by robbienicoll on Dec 12, 2019 11:35:26 GMT
Lab to Con
Ashfield, Barrow and Furness, Bassetlaw, Bishop Auckland, Bolsover, Dagenham and Rainham, Derby North, Dudley North, Great Grimsby, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Penistone and Stocksbridge, Stoke-on-Trent North, Wrexham
Con to Lab
Altrincham and Sale West, Chingford and Woodford Green, Chipping Barnet, Hastings and Rye, Milton Keynes South, Norwich North, Putney
Con to LD
Cheltenham, Richmond Park, St Albans, St Ives, Winchester
LD to Con
North Norfolk
Lab to LD
Sheffield Hallam
Con to SNP
Stirling
SNP to Con
Argyll and Bute, Lanark and Hamilton East
Lab to SNP
Midlothian
SNP to LD
North East Fife
PC to Lab
Arfon
Ind to DUP
North Down
DUP to SDLP
Belfast South
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Post by Robert Waller on Dec 12, 2019 14:10:29 GMT
Con Gain from Lab
Ashfield
Barrow and Furness
Bassetlaw
Bedford
Bishop Auckland
Blackpool South
Crewe & Nantwich
Darlington
Derby North
Don Valley
Dudley North
Great Grimsby
Keighley
Kensington
Lincoln
Newcastle under Lyme
Penistone & Stocksbridge
Peterborough
Rother Valley
Scunthorpe
Stockton South
Stoke North
Vale of Clwyd
Wakefield
West Bromwich West
Wrexham
Con Gain from LD
Eastbourne
North Norfolk
LD Gain from Con
Cheadle
Cheltenham
Richmond Park
St Albans
South Cambridgeshire
Wimbledon
Winchester
LD Gain from Lab
Sheffield Hallam
Lab Gain from Con
Chipping Barnet
Hastings & Rye
Putney
SNP Gain from Con
Gordon
Ochil & South Perthshire
Renfrewshire East
Stirling
SNP Gain from Lab
East Lothian
Glasgow NE
Midlothian
Rutherglen
Plaid Cymru Gain from Lab
Ynys Mon
DUP Gain from Ind
North Down
SDLP Gain from DUP
Belfast South
Not in competition
C gain Buckingham from Speaker
Speaker gain Chorley from Lab
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carlton43
Reform Party
Posts: 50,886
Member is Online
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Post by carlton43 on Dec 12, 2019 14:31:17 GMT
Con Gain from Lab Ashfield Barrow and Furness Bassetlaw Bedford Bishop Auckland Blackpool South Crewe & Nantwich Darlington Derby North Don Valley Dudley North Great Grimsby Keighley Kensington Lincoln Newcastle under Lyme Penistone & Stocksbridge Peterborough Rother Valley Scunthorpe Stockton South Stoke North Vale of Clwyd Wakefield West Bromwich West Wrexham Con Gain from LD Eastbourne North Norfolk LD Gain from Con Cheadle Cheltenham Richmond Park St Albans South Cambridgeshire Wimbledon Winchester LD Gain from Lab Sheffield Hallam Lab Gain from Con Chipping Barnet Hastings & Rye Putney SNP Gain from Con Gordon Ochil & South Perthshire Renfrewshire East Stirling SNP Gain from Lab East Lothian Glasgow NE Midlothian Rutherglen Plaid Cymru Gain from Lab Ynys Mon DUP Gain from Ind North Down SDLP Gain from DUP Belfast South Not in competitionC gain Buckingham from Speaker Speaker gain Chorley from Lab We have quite a lot of cross-over but some noteable differences. Hope we are correct on the core long list. |
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,473
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Post by peterl on Dec 12, 2019 18:11:40 GMT
I'm sure there will be many other seats that change hands, but I'm only sufficiently confident in my prediction for the following:
Lab Gain from Con
Hastings and Rye
Southampton Itchen
Putney
Lib Dem Gain from Lab
Birmingham Yardley
Sheffield Hallam
Lib Dem Gain from Con
Eastleigh
Kensington
Wimbledon
Winchester
DUP Gain from Ind
North Down
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Post by manchesterman on Dec 12, 2019 19:23:39 GMT
Here's mine:
CON GAINS
Kensington
Dudley N
Newcastle under Lyme
Crewe & Nantwich
Canterbury
Barrow & Furness
Keighley
Ashfield
Stroud
Bishop Auckland
Peterborough
Colne Valley
Ipswich
Bedford
Stockton S
Warwick/Leamington
Penistone/Stocksbridge
Lincoln
Portsmouth S
Warrington S
Derby N
Wakefield
Wolves SW
Wrexham
Stoke on Trent N
Dewsbury
Vale of Clwyd
Gower
Blackpool S
Great Grimsby
Darlington
Rother Valley
Scunthorpe
Bassetlaw
Workington
Halifax
Don Valley
Bolsover
Clwyd S
Bury S
Stoke on Trent Cen
West Bromwich W
Norfolk N
LAB GAIN
Putney
LD GAINS
Fife NE
Ceredigion
Sheff Hallam
Richmond Park
St Ives
Cheltenham
Cheadle
Guildford
St Albans
Wells
Winchester
Cambs S
Esher & Walton
SNP GAINS
Stirling
Gordon
Ayr Carrick & Cumnock
Ochil & S Perthshire
Angus
Rutherglen/Hamilton W
Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath
Glasgow NE
Midlothian
Coatbridge,Chryston,Bellshill
E Lothian
SINN FEIN GAIN
Belfast N
SDLP GAIN
Belfast S
DUP GAIN
Down North
UUP GAIN
Antrim S
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Post by manchesterman on Dec 12, 2019 19:30:05 GMT
And that's that. I'm taking no more entries now.
Off for a bit of a nap and then will be up all night from 10pm!
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Post by manchesterman on Dec 12, 2019 23:39:07 GMT
I think no one's going to get very big scores after that exit poll!
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Post by manchesterman on Dec 12, 2019 23:56:49 GMT
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Post by Lifeless on Dec 13, 2019 12:12:25 GMT
Well, I managed to get Ceredigion right in not turning to the Lib Dems for what its worth (shame it doesnt get any points though!). As for everything else?
Looks like my minus score prediction was correct!
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 14, 2019 9:25:20 GMT
Are you planning to add up the scores for this competition manchesterman? |
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Post by Robert Waller on Dec 14, 2019 10:12:46 GMT
Are you planning to add up the scores for this competition manchesterman? I did a quick estimate and I thought Tony Otim was in front, with Pete, Manchesterman and Jacob close behind. But I didn't really apply the detailed rules e.g. more points when a party cm from third such as Alliance in North Down, though Tony would benefit from that. So I too would welcome an 'official' pronouncement. Or anyone ... (By the way, I only thought there was one negative score, it is wasn't Lifeless! |
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Post by manchesterman on Dec 14, 2019 11:55:50 GMT
Are you planning to add up the scores for this competition manchesterman ? Yes but I have a lot to do today, probably Sunday. |
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Post by manchesterman on Dec 14, 2019 12:39:26 GMT
Ive been given half an hour's grace by my wife as we're running late - so I've just had time to tot up the headline scores...
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