GE 2019 - seat gains competition

[manchesterman]

I though the thread Harry Hayfield had recently created was going to be for this - but his is about forum candidates - so I was wondering if there would be interest in a competition to predict GAINS in the GE?

My initial thoughts would be that it would work as follows:

Correct prediction that party that finished 2nd in 2017 wins the seat =  +2 pts

Correct prediction that party that finished 3rd in 2017 wins the seat =  +4 pts  etc etc

Incorrect prediction of a GAIN (where either the incumbent holds or another party, that you didnt predict, wins the seat) =  - 1pt

[definition of a GAIN is based on 2017 GE result, so for example, Brecon & Radnor is currently treated as a CON seat for game purposes]

Example:

If you predict a Labour win in Uxbridge you get +2, but if you predict that and Labour dont win = - 1pt

If you predict a Lib Dem gain in Finchley and Luciana Berger pulls it off = +4, but if you predict her to win and she fails =  -1pt

*Incumbent MPs who are now standing as Independent (Soubry, Grieve etc) will count as a +3pt gain if they win and -1 if they lose  [should help in splitting up any tiebreak situations]

the points system encourages you to take a punt on more gains than you may normally expect, but if you go too far and predict a lot of gains that fail, you will be picking up a lot of negative points!

That's the basic idea - if anyone can think of any embellishments, by all means comment.  Or if there is a similar thread that I just havent found please point me to it

EDIT: Please see below these rules have been tweaked a little

[mondialito]

I'm up for something like that, players to submit their predictions by 23.59 on the 11th?

[carlton43]

Why not predictions up until 22.00 on 12/12?

How many points for a winner that did not stans in 2017 (eg. the BP)?

How are the entries made and who monitors it?

[manchesterman]

Well i would be happy to "run" it.

BP gain scenario? Hmmm maybe+5 but open to suggestions/amendments

[greenhert]

I would certainly be interested, especially since this election is widely regarded as the most unpredictable in modern British political history.

[manchesterman]

Any more thoughts about this , or tweaks to the embryonic rules I drew up?

Also any else interested in taking part? Wouldnt want to set up a spreadsheet etc for 3 or 4 players!

[curiousliberal]

I'd like to join.

[pepperminttea]

Nov 20, 2019 20:24:53 GMT manchesterman said:

Any more thoughts about this , or tweaks to the embryonic rules I drew up?

Also any else interested in taking part? Wouldnt want to set up a spreadsheet etc for 3 or 4 players!

I'll join though my record of predicting elections is... patchy, to say the least!

[manchesterman]

You havent seen mine

[peterl]

I'll give it a go.

[Richard Cromwell]

I'm in.

[manchesterman]

A lot of Greens on board - is this significant in any way?!

I will write up some rules of the game over the weekend

[curiousliberal]

Nov 19, 2019 20:26:01 GMT manchesterman said:

Well i would be happy to "run" it.

BP gain scenario? Hmmm maybe+5 but open to suggestions/amendments

One way could be to go off the UKIP baseline where it exists (and where UKIP isn't still standing), and where it doesn't (or where UKIP is standing), opt for a position-based scoring system. The score could be determined by an average of recent national polls taken at the time of the announcement of the rules and posted here, which would be applied to the 2017 results. Which position that result (say, 3%) would put them would define the points scored.

[manchesterman]

Thanks for the idea but then that would involve extra work for me

I will confirm final scoring system etc later tonight

[yellowperil]

Nov 24, 2019 17:30:26 GMT manchesterman said:

Thanks for the idea but then that would involve extra work for me

I will confirm final scoring system etc later tonight

Probably interested depending on the final rules - hopefully keeping it reasonably simple.

[manchesterman]

It will be v simple - in fact after a re-think, simpler than the OP

[manchesterman]

GE2019 predict the seat gains competition

[Please note these rules are slightly different from those expounded in the opening post of this thread!]

The premise of the game is that you simply have to name the party which you think will GAIN a seat from the incumbent in any constituency of your choice.  You dont have to guess a majority or add any other information.

The format of submitting your predictions is as simple as posting them in this thread, however it would help me if you did them like this: (and in alphabetical order per section, but I wont exclude any entries that dont do this!)

LAB to CON

Dudley N

Ipswich

Kensington etc

LAB to LIB DEM

Cambridge

Sheffield Hallam etc

CON to SNP

Angus

Gordon

Stirling etc

It may be helfpul for clarity, if you're picking a seat where an incumbent is now fighting as an Indy that you show it as follows, for avoidance of doubt:

CON to IND

Beaconsfield (Grieve) - just in case there are other "independents" standing in that seat too.

SCORING

Correct prediction that party that finished 2nd in 2017 wins the seat = +1pt

Correct prediction that party that finished 3rd in 2017 wins the seat = +3 pts

Incorrect prediction of a GAIN (where either the incumbent holds or another party, that you didnt predict, wins the seat) = - 1pt

[definition of a GAIN is based on 2017 GE result, so for example, Brecon & Radnor is currently treated as a CON seat for game purposes, Barrow is Labour etc.]

Example:

If you predict a Labour win in Uxbridge you get +1pt, but if you predict that result and Labour dont win = - 1pt
If you predict a Lib Dem gain in Finchley and Luciana Berger pulls it off = +3, but if you predict her to win and she fails = -1pt

Incumbent MPs who are now standing as Independent (Soubry, Grieve etc) will count as a +4pt gain if they win and -1 if they lose

If the Brexit Party (or any other party who didnt field candidates in 2017) pick up a seat = +5pts, and -1 pt if they fail to win that seat

If you predict any other party to win a seat, who stood but finished lower than 3rd (e.g. 4th/5th etc) in 2017 = +5pts, and -1pt if they fail to win that seat

Edit: Sorry I forgot about The Speaker's seats.  I think Buckingham really has to be treated as a CON seat [Bercow was elected as a Con MP] and similarly Chorley is regarded as a LAB seat [same reason re hoyle] - Sorry greenhert but you cant predict Buckingham as a CON gain and Chorley as a SPEAKER gain, however you can predict in those seats for another party to win, again using the points rules based on 2017 GE results as above.

Addendum:  In the event of a tie when all the scores are calculated, there will be a tiebreaker which will be whoever is the closest to the total number of GAINS predicted.  So if A submits a total  of 75 gains, B submits 82 gains and there are in fact 77 total gains, then A wins.

[manchesterman]

Any questions - post here

Deadline I think I will set at 7pm on GE night so it gives me a couple of hours before the Exit Poll to sort it all out

Thanks

[Tony Otim]

I think there should be a bonus point if you correctly predict a gain in a constituency that doesn't have a poll on the relevant thread on the forum 😉

[manchesterman]

Nov 24, 2019 20:03:31 GMT Tony Otim said:

I think there should be a bonus point if you correctly predict a gain in a constituency that doesn't have a poll on the relevant thread on the forum 😉

You just want to ruin my life Tony