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Post by manchesterman on Nov 24, 2019 22:49:10 GMT
btw I've just added a "tie-breaker" to the end of the rules above
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Post by edgbaston on Nov 24, 2019 23:24:34 GMT
This is all I am fairly certain of
CON gain from LAB
Barrow & Furness
Crewe & Nantwich
Newcastle-under-Lyme
Ashfield
Dudley North
Kensington
LD gain from LAB
Sheffield Hallam
LD gain from CON
Richmond Park
St. Ives
LD gain from PC
Ceredigion
LD gain from SNP
North East Fife
CON gain from SNP
Perth & North Perthshire
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Post by greenhert on Nov 24, 2019 23:54:54 GMT
This is my list of predictions, which I posted on my blog last week:
LAB gain from CON: Broxtowe, Chingford & Woodford Green, Chipping Barnet, Harrow East, Southport, Watford.
LD gain from CON: Cheadle, Cheltenham, Guildford, Hazel Grove, Richmond Park, St Albans, St Ives, South Cambridgeshire, Wells, Wimbledon, Winchester.
GREEN gain from CON: Bury St Edmunds, Isle of Wight.
SNP gain from CON: Aberdeen South, Angus, Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock, Banff & Buchan, East Renfrewshire, Gordon, Moray, Ochil & South Perthshire, Stirling.
LD gain from LAB: Bermondsey & Old Southwark, Cambridge, Leeds North West, Portsmouth South, Sheffield Hallam.
GREEN gain from LAB: Bristol West.
SNP gain from LAB: Coatbridge, Chryston & Belshill, East Lothian, Glasgow North East, Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath, Midlothian, Rutherglen & Hamilton West.
PC gain from LAB: Ynys Mon.
CON gain from LAB: Barrow & Furness, Bassetlaw, Bishop Auckland, Canterbury, Crewe & Nantwich, Derby North, Dudley North, Great Grimsby, Kensington, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Penistone & Stocksbridge, Rother Valley, Warwick & Leamington, Wrexham.
ASHFIELD IND gain from LAB: Ashfield.
LD gain from SNP: North East Fife.
SF gain from DUP: Belfast North.
SDLP gain from DUP: Belfast South.
SDLP gain from SF: Foyle.
UUP gain from IND: North Down.
Conservative 304, Labour 239, SNP 49, Liberal Democrats 29, DUP 8, Sinn Fein 7, Plaid Cymru 5, Green 4, SDLP 2, UUP 1, Ashfield Independent 1, Speaker 1.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 25, 2019 10:21:51 GMT
This is my list of predictions, which I posted on my blog last week: LAB gain from CON: Broxtowe, Chingford & Woodford Green, Chipping Barnet, Harrow East, Southport, Watford. LD gain from CON: Cheadle, Cheltenham, Guildford, Hazel Grove, Portsmouth South, Richmond Park, St Albans, St Ives, South Cambridgeshire, Wells, Wimbledon, Winchester. GREEN gain from CON: Bury St Edmunds, Isle of Wight. SNP gain from CON: Aberdeen South, Angus, Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock, Banff & Buchan, East Renfrewshire, Gordon, Moray, Ochil & South Perthshire, Stirling. LD gain from LAB: Bermondsey & Old Southwark, Cambridge, Leeds North West, Sheffield Hallam. GREEN gain from LAB: Bristol West. SNP gain from LAB: Coatbridge, Chryston & Belshill, East Lothian, Glasgow North East, Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath, Midlothian, Rutherglen & Hamilton West. PC gain from LAB: Ynys Mon. CON gain from LAB: Barrow & Furness, Bassetlaw, Bishop Auckland, Canterbury, Crewe & Nantwich, Derby North, Dudley North, Great Grimsby, Kensington, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Penistone & Stocksbridge, Rother Valley, Warwick & Leamington, Wrexham. ASHFIELD IND gain from LAB: Ashfield. Speaker gain from LAB: Chorley. CON gain from Speaker: Buckingham. LD gain from SNP: North East Fife. SF gain from DUP: Belfast North. SDLP gain from DUP: Belfast South. SDLP gain from SF: Foyle. UUP gain from IND: North Down. Apart from your absurd predictions of Green gains which are clearly a case of what you want to happen rather than what you genuinely believe will happen, I'd question whether in a scenario in which the net Conservative and Labour balance is more or less the same as in 2017 (ie gaining a few from each other) the Conservatives will gain Canterbury. This strikes me as one of the likeliest 'against the trend' Labour holds - reminiscent in some ways of Dorset South in 2005 (though there were issues with the Conservative candidate there). ON your scenario, such a result would not even be much against the trend |
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wallington
Green
The Pride of Croydon 2022 award winner
Posts: 1,322 
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Post by wallington on Nov 25, 2019 11:12:02 GMT
This is my list of predictions, which I posted on my blog last week: LAB gain from CON: Broxtowe, Chingford & Woodford Green, Chipping Barnet, Harrow East, Southport, Watford. LD gain from CON: Cheadle, Cheltenham, Guildford, Hazel Grove, Portsmouth South, Richmond Park, St Albans, St Ives, South Cambridgeshire, Wells, Wimbledon, Winchester. GREEN gain from CON: Bury St Edmunds, Isle of Wight. SNP gain from CON: Aberdeen South, Angus, Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock, Banff & Buchan, East Renfrewshire, Gordon, Moray, Ochil & South Perthshire, Stirling. LD gain from LAB: Bermondsey & Old Southwark, Cambridge, Leeds North West, Sheffield Hallam. GREEN gain from LAB: Bristol West. SNP gain from LAB: Coatbridge, Chryston & Belshill, East Lothian, Glasgow North East, Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath, Midlothian, Rutherglen & Hamilton West. PC gain from LAB: Ynys Mon. CON gain from LAB: Barrow & Furness, Bassetlaw, Bishop Auckland, Canterbury, Crewe & Nantwich, Derby North, Dudley North, Great Grimsby, Kensington, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Penistone & Stocksbridge, Rother Valley, Warwick & Leamington, Wrexham. ASHFIELD IND gain from LAB: Ashfield. Speaker gain from LAB: Chorley. CON gain from Speaker: Buckingham. LD gain from SNP: North East Fife. SF gain from DUP: Belfast North. SDLP gain from DUP: Belfast South. SDLP gain from SF: Foyle. UUP gain from IND: North Down. C'mon.... I mean, Maybe a slim outside chance of Bristol West or IoW coming in for the Greens (They won't)... But Bury St Edmunds is just wishful thinking, the Conservatives will probably poll over 60% here. |
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Post by jacoblamsden on Nov 25, 2019 13:40:09 GMT
LD GAIN FROM CON – Cities of London and Westminster, Cheltenham, Richmond Park, St Albans, St Ives, Wimbledon
SNP GAIN FROM CON – Stirling
SDLP GAIN FROM DUP – Belfast South
DUP GAIN FROM IND – North Down
CON GAIN FROM LAB – Ashfield, Barrow and Furness, Bassetlaw, Bedford, Birmingham Northfield, Bishop Auckland, Blackpool South, Bolton North East, Bridgend, Bury North, Bury South, Canterbury, Clwyd South, Colne Valley, Crewe and Nantwich, Croydon Central, Darlington, Derby North, Dewsbury, Dudley North, Gower, Great Grimsby, Hartlepool, High Peak, Hyndburn, Ipswich, Keighley, Lincoln, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Penistone and Stockbridge, Peterborough, Portsmouth South, Reading East, Rother Valley, Scunthorpe, Stockton South, Stoke-on-Trent Central, Stoke-on-Trent North, Stroud, Vale of Clwyd, Wakefield, Warrington South, Warwick and Leamington, Weaver Vale, Wirral West, Wolverhampton South West, Workington, Wrexham
LD GAIN FROM LAB – Cambridge, Kensington, Sheffield Hallam
SNP GAIN FROM LAB – Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill, East Lothian, Glasgow North East, Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, Midlothian, Rutherglen and Hamilton West
CON GAIN FROM LD – Carshalton and Wallington, Eastbourne, North Norfolk
LD GAIN FROM PC - Ceredigion
SDLP GAIN FROM SF – Foyle
CON GAIN FROM SNP – Argyll and Bute, Perth and North Perthshire
LD GAIN FROM SNP – North East Fife
Done this very quickly so figures may not be 100% right but I think that makes it CON 363, LAB 202, LD 20, SNP 40, PC 2, GRN 1, DUP 10, SF 6, SDLP 2
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Post by Andrew_S on Nov 26, 2019 4:58:05 GMT
Interesting predictions on this thread: Cons gaining Argyll & Bute and Greens gaining Bury St Edmunds stick out.
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Post by manchesterman on Nov 29, 2019 20:25:48 GMT
The Green gains surprised me most, and possibly Labour winning Harrow E & Chipping Barnet.
Any more for anymore?
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Post by akmd on Nov 29, 2019 21:25:56 GMT
I'll have a go.
Conservative gain from Labour: Ashfield, Barrow and Furness, Bassetlaw, Bedford, Bishop Auckland, Blackpool South, Bridgend, Bury North, Colne Valley, Crewe and Nantwich, Darlington, Derby North, Dudley North, Gower, Great Grimsby, Ipswich, Keighley, Lincoln, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Penistone and Stockbridge, Peterborough, Portsmouth South, Scunthorpe, Stockton South, Vale of Clwyd, Warrington South, Warwick and Leamington, Weaver Vale, Wrexham
Conservative gain from Liberal Democrat: Carshalton & Wellington, Eastbourne, Norfolk North
Labour gain from Conservative: Chingford & Woodford Green, Chipping Barnet, Hastings & Rye, Telford
Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative: Cheltenham, Richmond Park, St Ives, Winchester
Liberal Democrat gain from Labour: Sheffield Hallam
Liberal Democrat gain from SNP: North East Fife
SNP gain from Conservative: Aberdeen South, Angus, Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock, Banff & Buchan, East Renfrewshire, Gordon, Moray, Ochil & South Perthshire
SNP gain from Labour: Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill, Glasgow North East, Midlothian, Rutherglen and Hamilton West
Plaid Cymru gain from Labour: Ynys Mon
DUP gain from Independent: North Down
SDLP gain from DUP: Belfast South
SDLP gain from SF: Foyle
Alliance gain from DUP: Belfast East
UUP gain from DUP: South Antrim
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Post by lancastrian on Dec 4, 2019 1:08:10 GMT
This is my list of predictions, which I posted on my blog last week: LD gain from CON: Cheadle, Cheltenham, Guildford, Hazel Grove, Portsmouth South, Richmond Park, St Albans, St Ives, South Cambridgeshire, Wells, Wimbledon, Winchester. Stephen Morgan would be surprised to hear that. I'll put an entry in next week probably. |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Dec 9, 2019 11:39:52 GMT
My hostage to fortune. I'm going for a relatively low change election in terms of seats. I've probably under-estimated the Tories and included one or two wild cards, but anyway here goes:
LD gain from Lab: Sheffield Hallam
LD gain from Con: Cheltenham, Richmond Park, St Albans, St Ives, Wimbledon, Winchester
LD gain from SNP: NE Fife
Con gain from Lab: Barrow & Furness, Bassetlaw, Bishop Auckland, Blackpool South, Bury South, Crewe & Nantwich, Darlington, Derby North, Dewsbury, Dudley North, Great Grimsby, Ipswich, Keighley, Kensington, Lincoln, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Penistone and Stocksbridge, Rother Valley, Scunthorpe, Stockton South, Stoke-on-Trent North, Vale of Clwyd, Warrington South, West Bromwich West, Wolverhampton South West, Wrexham.
Con gain from LD: Eastbourne
Con gain from Speaker: Buckingham
Lab gain from Con: Hastings & Rye, Norwich North
Speaker gain from Lab: Chorley
SNP gain from Lab: East Lothian, Glasgow North East, Midlothian, Rutherglen and Hamilton West
SNP gain from Con: Aberdeen South, Angus, Ayr Carrick & Cumnock, Ochil & South Perthshire, Stirling
Disavowed SNP gain from Lab: Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath
PC gain from Lab: Ynys Mon
SF gain from DUP: Belfast North
SDLP gain from DUP: Belfast South
All gain from Ind: North Down
SDLP gain from SF: Foyle, South Down
Which I think makes totals of:
Con 332
Lab 230
SNP 43
LD 19
DUP 8
SF 6
PC 5
SDLP 3
All 1
Grn 1
Disavowed SNP 1
Speaker 1
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Dec 9, 2019 12:37:57 GMT
Don't know enough to enter this competition, best of luck to the all knowledgeable ones who do enter.
👽
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Post by Lifeless on Dec 9, 2019 13:05:15 GMT
Do I genuinely think all of these will change? Nope.
Am I going all in on a bunch of unlikelys? Yep.
Am I being biased towards my supported party? Hell yes
Here's to a negative score!
LAB to CON
Ashfield, Barrow and Furness, Bedford, Bishop Auckland, Blackpool South, Bolton North East, Bury North, Canterbury, Cardiff North, Colne Valley, Crewe and Nantwich, Darlington, Derby North, Dewsbury, Dudley North, Great Grimsby, High Peak, Ipswich, Keighley, Kensington, Lincoln, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Penistone and Stocksbridge, Peterborough, Rother Valley, Scunthorpe, Stockton South, Stoke-on-Trent North, Stroud, Vale of Clwyd, Wakefield, Warrington South, Warwick and Leamington, Weaver Vale, Wirral West, Wolverhampton South West, Workington, Wrexham
LAB to LDEM
Bermondsey and Old Southwark, Cambridge, Leeds North West, Portsmouth South, Sheffield Hallam
LAB to PC
Ynys Mon
LAB to SNP
Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill, East Lothian, Glasgow North East, Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, Midlothian, Rutherglen and Hamilton West
CON to LDEM
Brecon & Radnorshire, Cheadle, Cheltenham, Esher and Walton, Hazel Grove, Lewes, North Cornwall, North Devon, South Cambridgeshire, St Albans, St Ives, Wimbledon, Winchester
CON to SNP
Angus, "Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock", Banff and Buchan, Dumfries and Galoway, Gordon, Moray, Ochil and South Perthshire, Stirling
CON to IND
Ashford
CON to LAB
Hastings and Rye
SNP to LDEM
North East Fife
(doesn't fit in this competition, but I thought i'd throw in my input anyway. I'm going for a rather unusual decision that I think Ceredigion will NOT be taken by the Lib Dems, that might look stupid come Thurs/Fri)
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Dec 9, 2019 13:12:44 GMT
Don't know enough to enter this competition, best of luck to the all knowledgeable ones who do enter. 👽 That's never really stopped any of the rest of us before  |
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Post by Robert Waller on Dec 9, 2019 17:50:47 GMT
Everyone's entitled to their view! But Lifeless might wish to check that they don't mean Ashfield for the Ind gain not Ashford? |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Dec 9, 2019 19:43:45 GMT
Everyone's entitled to their view! But Lifeless might wish to check that they don't mean Ashfield for the Ind gain not Ashford? I did double check - there is actually an independent candidate in Ashford and he has Ashfield separately as a Con gain from Lab. Maybe he knows something about Susannah De Sanvil that the rest of us don't... |
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Post by lancastrian on Dec 10, 2019 23:19:30 GMT
Another entry for a hung Parliament here:
LAB to CON: Ashfield, Barrow and Furness, Bishop Auckland, Derby North, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Penistone and Stockbridge, Peterborough, Stoke-on-Trent North
LAB to LD: Sheffield Hallam
LAB to SNP: Glasgow North East, Midlothian, Rutherglen and Hamilton West
LAB to PC: Ynys Mon
LD to CON: North Norfolk
CON to LAB: Broxtowe, Chingford & Woodford Green, Chipping Barnet, Harrow East, Hastings & Rye, Norwich North, Putney
CON to LD: Cheltenham, Richmond Park, St Albans, St Ives, Winchester
CON to SNP: Angus, Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock, East Renfrewshire, Ochil & South Perthshire, Stirling
SNP to LD: North East Fife
SF to SDLP: Foyle
DUP to SDLP: Belfast South
DUP to SF: Belfast North
DUP to Alliance: Belfast East
IND to DUP: North Down
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Dec 11, 2019 12:37:30 GMT
My attempt:
Lab to LD
Sheffield Hallam
Con to LD
Richmond Park
Esher and Walton
St Albans
Con to Lab
Hastings and Rye
Lab to Con
Bolsover
Wrexham
Vale of Clwyd
Gower
Derby North
Great Grimsby
Lib Dem to Con
North Norfolk
DUP to Alliance
Belfast East
Indi to DUP
North Down
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Post by Richard Cromwell on Dec 11, 2019 18:29:18 GMT
Go big or go home.
LAB to CON: Alyn and Deeside, Ashfield, Barnsley East, Barrow and Furness, Bassetlaw, Bedford, Bishop Auckland, Blackpool South, Blyth Valley, Bolton North East, Bradford South, Bridgend, Bristol North West, Burnley, Bury North, Bury South, Chesterfield, Clwyd South, Colne Valley, Coventry North West, Coventry South, Crewe and Nantwich, Croydon Central, Dagenham and Rainham, Darlington, Derby North, Dewsbury, Don Valley, Doncaster Central, Dudley North, Durham North West, Eltham, Enfield Southgate, Gedling, Great Grimsby, Halifax, Hartlepool, Hemsworth, Heywood and Middleton, Hyndburn, Ipswich, Keighley, Kensington, Leigh, Lincoln, Makerfield, Newcastle-under-Lyme, "Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford", Penistone and Stockbridge, Peterborough, Plymouth Sutton and Devonport, Portsmouth South, Reading East, Redcar, Rother Valley, Scunthorpe, Sedgefield, Stockton North, Stockton South, Stoke-on-Trent North, Stroud, Wakefield, Warrington North, Warrington South, Weaver Vale, West Bromwich East, West Bromwich West, Wirral West, Wolverhampton North East, Wolverhampton South East, Wolverhampton South West, Workington, Wrexham
CON to SNP: Angus, Ayr Carrick and Cumnock, Gordon, Ochil and South Perthshire, Renfrewshire East, Stirling
PC to LAB: Arfon
LAB to BSJP: Birkenhead
LD to SNP: Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross, Dunbartonshire East, Edinburgh West, Orkney and Shetland
LD to CON: Carshalton and Wallington, Eastbourne
PC to CON: Ceredigion
CON to LD: Cheltenham, Richmond Park
LAB to SNP: "Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill", East Lothian, Glasgow North East, Midlothian, Rutherglen and Hamilton West
LAB to LD: Sheffield Hallam
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 11, 2019 18:53:48 GMT
Con Gain from Lab (38)Ashfield Barrow and Furness Bassetlaw Bedford Bishop Auckland Blackpool South Bury South Clwyd South Colne Valley Coventry South Crew & Nantwich Darlington Derby North Dewsbury Don Valey Dudley North Gower Great Grimsby High Peak Ipswich Keighley Kensington Lincoln Newcastle under Lyme Penistone & Stocksbridge Peterborough Rother Valley Scunthorpe Stockton South Stoke North Stroud Vale of Clwyd Wakefield Warrington South Warwick & Leamington Weaver Vale Wolverhampton South West Wrexham
Con Gain from LD (2)Eastbourne North Norfolk LD Gain from Con (6)Cheltenham Richmond Park St Albans St Ives Wimbledeon Winchester LD Gain from Lab (1)Sheffield Hallam
LD Gain from SNP (1)North East Fife Lab Gain from Con (2)Hastings & Rye Putney
SNP Gain from Con (2)Ochil & South Perthshire Stirling SNP Gain from Lab (4)East Lothian Glasgow NE Midlothian Rutherglen Plaid Cymru Gain from Lab (1)Yns Mon
DUP Gain from Ind (1)North Down
SDLP Gain from DUP (1)Belfast South
SDLP Gain from SF (1)Foyle Con 348 Lab 219 SNP 40 LD 18 DUP 10 SF 6 PC 5 SDLP 2 Grn 1 Speaker 1 (If that should be down as a gain then obviously I'm predicting that as gain from Labour and Buckingham as a Conservative 'gain' from Speaker) Edit @ 11:15 - I've added Warwick & Leamington. This does not change the totals listed above which would have included that seat as I had predicted it as a gain per my spreadhseet but had neglected to include it in the list of gains. Feel free to disallow its inclusion if this is past the deadline (especially if Labour hold it!)
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