Local Council By-elections 29th, 30th and 31st October 2019

[yellowperil]

Nov 1, 2019 14:04:30 GMT The Bishop said:

I don't doubt that we are currently unpopular, no. Which renders the rest of your spiel somewhat irrelevant

I take it then you are not expecting a recovery triggered by the calling of the general election as happened in 2017?  Certainly no sign of it coming yet, and if it doesn't start soon the suggestion that Labour supporters are in for a chastening time is certainly relevant.

[The Bishop]

Nov 1, 2019 14:17:00 GMT yellowperil said:

Nov 1, 2019 14:04:30 GMT The Bishop said:

I don't doubt that we are currently unpopular, no. Which renders the rest of your spiel somewhat irrelevant

I take it then you are not expecting a recovery triggered by the calling of the general election as happened in 2017?  Certainly no sign of it coming yet, and if it doesn't start soon the suggestion that Labour supporters are in for a chastening time is certainly relevant.

I definitely think that *could* happen, hence the word "currently".

But there is certainly no guarantee of it, and we must always be prepared for the worst as well as hope for the best

[polaris]

Nov 1, 2019 14:17:00 GMT yellowperil said:

Nov 1, 2019 14:04:30 GMT The Bishop said:

I don't doubt that we are currently unpopular, no. Which renders the rest of your spiel somewhat irrelevant

I take it then you are not expecting a recovery triggered by the calling of the general election as happened in 2017?  Certainly no sign of it coming yet, and if it doesn't start soon the suggestion that Labour supporters are in for a chastening time is certainly relevant.

I get the impression that a lot of Labour members genuinely do believe that they are on the brink of a historic election victory and a radical socialist government (although Bishop is not that daft, I think he's just whistling to keep his spirits up). They disbelieve the opinion polls and all bad news has been screened out by the filter bubble that they inhabit. The Corbynites have committed the cardinal error of believing all their own bullshit; they have spent the last four years getting high on their own supply.

It will be genuinely fascinating to see how they respond to an election defeat that they never expected, but which even the dogs in the street knew was coming.

[The Bishop]

Very, very few Labour members think we are actually going to "win" in the sense of getting an overall majority. Happy to put your mind at rest there, too

Given that not one GE since 2005 has gone the way it was widely expected to, the simple truth is that WE DON'T CURRENTLY KNOW what is going to happen. And those - like yourself - insisting Labour is INEVITABLY on the brink of a historic crushing reverse seem the most confident (in the face of that past evidence) of all.

[evergreenadam]

Nov 1, 2019 15:28:26 GMT The Bishop said:

Very, very few Labour members think we are actually going to "win" in the sense of getting an overall majority. Happy to put your mind at rest there, too

Given that not one GE since 2005 has gone the way it was widely expected to, the simple truth is that WE DON'T CURRENTLY KNOW what is going to happen. And those - like yourself - insisting Labour is INEVITABLY on the brink of a historic crushing reverse seem the most confident (in the face of that past evidence) of all.

So they were expected to be as follows?
2010 Tory majority
2015 Hung parliament
2017 Tory majority

[The Bishop]

Yes, that was the conventional wisdom on each occasion (and re 2010, most certainly nobody saw Cleggmania coming)

[greenchristian]

Nov 1, 2019 14:02:42 GMT polaris said:

Nov 1, 2019 10:42:57 GMT The Bishop said:

Well its such a bad result for us its hard to believe any level of "national unpopularity" can explain it alone.

You refer to national unpopularity in quote marks, as if it were something alleged, the existence of which was in doubt.

There may be local factors, but it's consistent with local by-election results across the board - Labour is losing everywhere to everyone.

This over-optimistic approach from many Labour supporters will only make the eventual result even harder to bear. You will come down to earth with one hell of a bump on the 13th December.....

It's worth remembering that the local election results in 2017 were entirely consistent with the conventional wisdom of a large Tory majority in the General, and not at all consistent with what actually happened on GE day.

[Tony Otim]

Nov 1, 2019 16:06:08 GMT The Bishop said:

Yes, that was the conventional wisdom on each occasion (and re 2010, most certainly nobody saw Cleggmania coming)

And after Cleggmania, most people had the Lib Dems gaining lots and they ended up going backwards (In seats at least). So 2010 defeated expectations twice...