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Post by andrew111 on Oct 31, 2019 23:45:07 GMT
Bromsgrove South (Worcestershire) result: CON: 40.2% (-0.3) IND: 22.8% (+22.8) LDEM: 18.7% (+13.7) LAB: 18.3% (-32.2) Conservative GAIN from Labour. Ind and Lib Dem doing very well but splitting anti Tory vote. This pattern of Labour doing badly in local by-elections changed quite quickly once the GE was called in 2017 as I recall (for example there was one in the Gorton constituency which the local Lib Dems were expecting to win having put in a lot of effort as part of the national by-election, but the vote went down to the normal (at that time) 8% or something |
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Post by lancastrian on Nov 1, 2019 0:06:15 GMT
Ind and Lib Dem doing very well but splitting anti Tory vote. I was just wondering what sort of Indy she was - not much clue from Andrew's preview. Can't be sure her voters were potential LDs or Labour (or vice versa,) though it'd be nice to think this was a potential LD gain without the Indy She's previously campaigned on local issues in Hagley, but for this election seems to have turned to Bromsgrove issues/Nimbyism according to the local paper. bromsgrovestandard.co.uk/news/battle-lines-drawn-for-bromsgrove-south-by-election/Plus the sort of generic council spending independents can always support because they aren't going to have to balance the books |
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Post by listener on Nov 1, 2019 0:07:06 GMT
Does anyone have the actual voting numbers, rather than the percentages ?
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Post by Robert Waller on Nov 1, 2019 0:07:12 GMT
I think this is an appalling result for Labour - some of us in the competition actually thought they were likely to win! (and no one felt they'd be far off or lower than second).
They appeared to have a strong local candidate, while the Conservative, according to the invaluable Mr Teale, is 22 years old and a parish councillor in Hagley, some miles to the north.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Nov 1, 2019 0:09:59 GMT
I was just wondering what sort of Indy she was - not much clue from Andrew's preview. Can't be sure her voters were potential LDs or Labour (or vice versa,) though it'd be nice to think this was a potential LD gain without the Indy She's previously campaigned on local issues in Hagley, but for this election seems to have turned to Bromsgrove issues/Nimbyism according to the local paper. bromsgrovestandard.co.uk/news/battle-lines-drawn-for-bromsgrove-south-by-election/Plus the sort of generic council spending independents can always support because they aren't going to have to balance the books She hasn’t Tweeted since 2017, but a lot of stuff from then, and current Facebook posts, would indicate definitely not Tory, probably closet Green. |
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Nov 1, 2019 0:11:20 GMT
Does anyone have the actual voting numbers, rather than the percentages ? |
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Post by lancastrian on Nov 1, 2019 0:11:29 GMT
Does anyone have the actual voting numbers, rather than the percentages ? |
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Nov 1, 2019 0:12:58 GMT
Curiously, 18% is what Labour polled in the division in 2009.
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hedgehog
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Post by hedgehog on Nov 1, 2019 0:25:18 GMT
She hasn’t Tweeted since 2017, but a lot of stuff from then, and current Facebook posts, would indicate definitely not Tory, probably closet Green. There are many closet Greens out there. |
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cogload
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Post by cogload on Nov 1, 2019 1:40:04 GMT
Bromsgrove South (Worcestershire) result: CON: 40.2% (-0.3) IND: 22.8% (+22.8) LDEM: 18.7% (+13.7) LAB: 18.3% (-32.2) Conservative GAIN from Labour. I hope that isn't a portent. |
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 1, 2019 1:56:29 GMT
For a rather young new candidate not central to the ward, that does look like an actual political turnout than does not show Labour other than in a disaster position. I take some quiet confidence from this but realize local authority by-elections are often a poor indicator of very much at all. BUT if that had been a Conservative defence and we dropped to 4th I would be having a distinct sinking feeling in the pit of my stomach!
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Post by yellowperil on Nov 1, 2019 6:21:45 GMT
Before the Tories claim too much from this ( and carlton43 says this, tbf) this is a local election and we should be a little chary of reading too much into this. The Tory vote share actually went down slightly. The result was spectacular mainly because of the intervention of the Indy campaigning on local (possibly rather NIMBYish?) issues. The two things which relate to the national political scene are the rise in the LibDem vote and the fall in the Labour vote. I know Labour may now use resuits like this to say vote LibDem get Tory, but without the Indy intervention it might well have been vote Lib Dem get Lib Dem. |
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Post by andrewp on Nov 1, 2019 8:16:18 GMT
I think this is an appalling result for Labour - some of us in the competition actually thought they were likely to win! (and no one felt they'd be far off or lower than second). They appeared to have a strong local candidate, while the Conservative, according to the invaluable Mr Teale, is 22 years old and a parish councillor in Hagley, some miles to the north. The fact that the Conservative candidate was not local and the !abour candidate was was precisely what persuaded me to forecast a Labour hold, and what makes the result even worse for Labour. I think the Independent was a green leaning type, and without her intervention I agree that the Lib Dem’s would have done a lot better. I still think the Conservatives would have won without her though. |
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Post by polaris on Nov 1, 2019 10:05:52 GMT
Curiously, 18% is what Labour polled in the division in 2009. Labour's current national polling isn't far above the levels it reached during Expensesgate in 2009. The recent local by-election results should chill the blood of any Labour partisan..... |
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Post by northbriton on Nov 1, 2019 10:24:24 GMT
Curiously, 18% is what Labour polled in the division in 2009. Labour's current national polling isn't far above the levels it reached during Expensesgate in 2009. The recent local by-election results should chill the blood of any Labour partisan..... I think it should. The sort of people likely to vote for an Independent would more likely split Tory rather than Labour, particularly so in this instance as the Tory candidate is a 22 yr old non-local. Very difficult to discern any crumbs of comfort for Labour here. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 1, 2019 10:42:57 GMT
Well its such a bad result for us its hard to believe any level of "national unpopularity" can explain it alone.
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Post by gwynthegriff on Nov 1, 2019 13:29:37 GMT
Labour finishing fourth in a seat they were defending- they have had some pretty poor results lately but that is beyond anything, surely? Trist iawn. Very sad. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Nov 1, 2019 13:37:03 GMT
Well its such a bad result for us its hard to believe any level of "national unpopularity" can explain it alone. A very good point. There are, of course, lots of factors which can have a big - but totally irrelevant to the wider picture - impact on a local election. Candidate illness, Agent incompetence, all manner of one-offs. |
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Post by polaris on Nov 1, 2019 14:02:42 GMT
Well its such a bad result for us its hard to believe any level of "national unpopularity" can explain it alone. You refer to national unpopularity in quote marks, as if it were something alleged, the existence of which was in doubt. There may be local factors, but it's consistent with local by-election results across the board - Labour is losing everywhere to everyone. This over-optimistic approach from many Labour supporters will only make the eventual result even harder to bear. You will come down to earth with one hell of a bump on the 13th December..... |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 1, 2019 14:04:30 GMT
I don't doubt that we are currently unpopular, no. Which renders the rest of your spiel somewhat irrelevant  |
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