Local Council by-elections 24th October 2019

[Pete Whitehead]

Oct 25, 2019 7:51:22 GMT Tony Otim said:

Oct 25, 2019 7:32:33 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

The Conservatives won Heavitree (which had previously been a safe Liberal ward) very narrowly over Labour in the delayed elections of September 2010 after which it has been fairly reliably Labour. Whipton & Barton though has always been a very safe Labour ward. So presumably the Conservatives were quite well ahead in Heavitree yestrerday

That would be quite different from the way the 5 wards that are partially in this division voted in May. Heavitree was Lab from the Greens with the Conservatives further back. St Loyes was won by the Conservatives and they came very close in Pinhoe. UKIP came second in Mincinglake and Whipton with the Conservatives a close third.

Maybe the patterns have changes a bit. Thing is because of ward boundary changes, this division only includes a small minority of those other wards (very small in the case of Pinhoe) which may not be representative of the overall voting patterns in those wards.

[Tony Otim]

Oct 25, 2019 7:56:27 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Oct 25, 2019 7:51:22 GMT Tony Otim said:

That would be quite different from the way the 5 wards that are partially in this division voted in May. Heavitree was Lab from the Greens with the Conservatives further back. St Loyes was won by the Conservatives and they came very close in Pinhoe. UKIP came second in Mincinglake and Whipton with the Conservatives a close third.

Maybe the patterns have changes a bit. Thing is because of ward boundary changes, this division only includes a small minority of those other wards (very small in the case of Pinhoe) which may not be representative of the overall voting patterns in those wards.

Yeah - I realise that and it makes comparisons difficult, but the May results suggest that the Conservatives were relatively stronger in the non-Heavitree parts, but that may just be an aberration.

[Pete Whitehead]

Oct 25, 2019 8:39:37 GMT Tony Otim said:

Oct 25, 2019 7:56:27 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Maybe the patterns have changes a bit. Thing is because of ward boundary changes, this division only includes a small minority of those other wards (very small in the case of Pinhoe) which may not be representative of the overall voting patterns in those wards.

Yeah - I realise that and it makes comparisons difficult, but the May results suggest that the Conservatives were relatively stronger in the non-Heavitree parts, but that may just be an aberration.

Well look at it this way. This division corresponds exactly to the two former wards of Heavitree and Whipton & Barton. Given how close the result was and barring an almost unfeasibly even split, the Conservatives must have 'won' one of those. If it was indeed in Whipton & Barton then this is even more remarkable. This ward had Labour 20% ahead on general election day in 2015 (the last election on those ward boundaries). They were 10% ahead then in Heavitree

[Pete Whitehead]

I don't know Exeter very well at all. But looking briefly at the census stats for the two components, I can certainly imagine there has been a bit of convergence even since 2015 (and after all, post-Brexit). Heavitre is more middle class, more studenty, more inner-urban - whipton and Barton more of a peripheral working class area with substantial amount of social housing. So I can see Labour losing ground to the Lib dems and Greens more in the former and to the Conservatives in the latter

[Merseymike]

Oct 25, 2019 7:22:54 GMT Mike Drew said:

Oct 25, 2019 6:52:12 GMT andrewp said:

I think that’s an awful result for Labour in Exeter. Vote share down 20% on a baseline of the poor year of 2017. Exeter Labour have an excellent campaigning machine usually.

It is Labour’s Brexit position(s) that has demotivated Labour activist.

But having a straightforward remain position would have angered a significant section of voters.
Having said that, its clear that there really is no room for nuance any more, and a decision is going to have to be made as to whether to back Johnson's deal or remain. I don't think that the aim of renegotiating from scratch is feasible

[andrewp]

Oct 25, 2019 9:00:31 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

I don't know Exeter very well at all. But looking briefly at the census stats for the two components, I can certainly imagine there has been a bit of convergence even since 2015 (and after all, post-Brexit). Heavitre is more middle class, more studenty, more inner-urban - whipton and Barton more of a peripheral working class area with substantial amount of social housing. So I can see Labour losing ground to the Lib dems and Greens more in the former and to the Conservatives in the latter

I know Exeter a bit, and your charachteristics are right. it’s not impossible that Labour didn’t ‘win’ either half yesterday. I suspect Heavitree would have been a close 4 way split and Whipton Barton a close 2 way split with Labour just ahead.

[The Bishop]

Oct 25, 2019 9:18:43 GMT Merseymike said:

Oct 25, 2019 7:22:54 GMT Mike Drew said:

It is Labour’s Brexit position(s) that has demotivated Labour activist.

But having a straightforward remain position would have angered a significant section of voters.
Having said that, its clear that there really is no room for nuance any more, and a decision is going to have to be made as to whether to back Johnson's deal or remain. I don't think that the aim of renegotiating from scratch is feasible

If the deal isn't passed by the coming GE, then the position of "another referendum should decide" remains a perfectly feasible offer in my view. I agree that the rigmarole of negotiating an entire new deal may have passed its sell by date though, if a CU amendment is passed to Johnson's offer that is basically what should be offered IMO.

[Pete Whitehead]

Oct 25, 2019 9:21:18 GMT andrewp said:

Oct 25, 2019 9:00:31 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

I don't know Exeter very well at all. But looking briefly at the census stats for the two components, I can certainly imagine there has been a bit of convergence even since 2015 (and after all, post-Brexit). Heavitre is more middle class, more studenty, more inner-urban - whipton and Barton more of a peripheral working class area with substantial amount of social housing. So I can see Labour losing ground to the Lib dems and Greens more in the former and to the Conservatives in the latter

I know Exeter a bit, and your charachteristics are right. it’s not impossible that Labour didn’t ‘win’ either half yesterday. I suspect Heavitree would have been a close 4 way split and Whipton Barton a close 2 way split with Labour just ahead.

Sounds about right. It's a very poor result for Labour whichever way you look at it

[Andrew_S]

Is there any chance of Labour losing Exeter at a general election?

[andrewp]

Oct 25, 2019 10:02:45 GMT Andrew_S said:

Is there any chance of Labour losing Exeter at a general election?

No. They would hold it even if they got 30% I think.

[The Bishop]

Oct 25, 2019 10:02:45 GMT Andrew_S said:

Is there any chance of Labour losing Exeter at a general election?

I think that a "vote LibDem/Green, get Tory" message might have more traction then.

[phil156]

I wonder what the turnout is in Flintshire

[Tony Otim]

Oct 25, 2019 9:46:23 GMT The Bishop said:

Oct 25, 2019 9:18:43 GMT Merseymike said:

But having a straightforward remain position would have angered a significant section of voters.
Having said that, its clear that there really is no room for nuance any more, and a decision is going to have to be made as to whether to back Johnson's deal or remain. I don't think that the aim of renegotiating from scratch is feasible

If the deal isn't passed by the coming GE, then the position of "another referendum should decide" remains a perfectly feasible offer in my view. I agree that the rigmarole of negotiating an entire new deal may have passed its sell by date though, if a CU amendment is passed to Johnson's offer that is basically what should be offered IMO.

I don't think you can have a referendum with just a customs unions vs remain, that would be too much of a stitch-up. There needs to be some harder Brexit option, whether it be the unamended deal with free-trade agreement or no deal.

[andrewp]

Oct 25, 2019 13:47:50 GMT phil156 said:

I wonder what the turnout is in Flintshire

23.9%

[Robert Waller]

I did some approximations on the Exeter votes in May 2019 and despite the scatter of wards there surely can be little doubt that Labour did decline substantially on Thursday from then, when they were in the 40s in both the main constituent wards (Heavitree and Mincinglake/Whipton); and that it is a fair hypothesis that this was due to 'Brexit', losing both remain and leave voters. This fits with the national opinion polls - and with the reluctance to back a general election.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Exeter_City_Council_election#Results_by_ward

[yellowperil]

I always think it's quite interesting to look at the overall votes and swings when we get a fairly big sample of by elections like this Thursday's eight.Alright I know its not a valid statistical sample (heavily weighted towards Wales which is a bit unusual) and this is only back of envelope calculations - just "a bit of fun", not serious psephology.

If you look at the vote share across the 8 electoral areas from "last time"(varying between May 2017 and May 2019) the vote share was something like Con 42, Lab 33, LD 12, "others"13. And this Thursday it looks like Con 37 (-5), Lab 21(-12), LD 25(+13), "others"17(+4).

[ideal4radio]

Oct 25, 2019 19:53:04 GMT yellowperil said:

I always think it's quite interesting to look at the overall votes and swings when we get a fairly big sample of by elections like this Thursday's eight.Alright I know its not a valid statistical sample (heavily weighted towards Wales which is a bit unusual) and this is only back of envelope calculations - just "a bit of fun", not serious psephology.

If you look at the vote share across the 8 electoral areas from "last time"(varying between May 2017 and May 2019) the vote share was something like Con 42, Lab 33, LD 12, "others"13. And this Thursday it looks like Con 37 (-5), Lab 21(-12), LD 25(+13), "others"17(+4).

    Interesting, although I would note there weren't any big city wards up for the taking ....

[bjornhattan]

The by-election which I found interesting (especially since I travelled through it on Thursday evening) was Melksham Without South. There are clear dangers to extrapolating too much, but the swing there, giving a 60-40 result, would probably imply an extremely close result over the Chippenham constituency as a whole, since Melksham is very much the working-class pro-Brexit end of the seat. Obviously Labour will be fighting that seat too, but I expect they'll be squeezed down, especially if their organisation's so bad they can't even put up a paper candidate.

[Chris from Brum]

Oct 25, 2019 21:09:27 GMT ideal4radio said:

Oct 25, 2019 19:53:04 GMT yellowperil said:

I always think it's quite interesting to look at the overall votes and swings when we get a fairly big sample of by elections like this Thursday's eight.Alright I know its not a valid statistical sample (heavily weighted towards Wales which is a bit unusual) and this is only back of envelope calculations - just "a bit of fun", not serious psephology.

If you look at the vote share across the 8 electoral areas from "last time"(varying between May 2017 and May 2019) the vote share was something like Con 42, Lab 33, LD 12, "others"13. And this Thursday it looks like Con 37 (-5), Lab 21(-12), LD 25(+13), "others"17(+4).

    Interesting, although I would note there weren't any big city wards up for the taking ....

Croydon?

[andrewp]

Oct 25, 2019 21:35:40 GMT Chris from Brum said:

Oct 25, 2019 21:09:27 GMT ideal4radio said:

    Interesting, although I would note there weren't any big city wards up for the taking ....

Croydon?

Croydon is in 2 weeks time