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Post by carolus on Sept 26, 2019 23:06:52 GMT
Con and LD vote shares in Rochford almost completely static since May, and also since 2018.
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Post by yellowperil on Sept 26, 2019 23:14:30 GMT
Not really- the other two seats in the ward are Conservative. And vote Green get Tory?
Tbh I suspect the prospect of a General Election is hardening the Tory vote as it did in 2017 in the County Elections. And Rochford does not seem to be a place of Lib Dem strength
Worth perhaps pointing out there was a Green candidate and no Labour this time so maybe the Green votes were sort of faux Labour ones. Had all the Green votes gone to LiB Dem that would have been enough-just! |
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Post by lancastrian on Sept 26, 2019 23:14:44 GMT
Why is that relevant? You should be asking how many working class voters there are in the ward compared to middle class voters and maybe questioning ways to widen your appeal to attract more of the former. If you lived in East Lancashire, you would know why his Lordship was asking ...  Whatever the rights and wrongs of it, the fact is at the moment the ethnic make up of a ward does make a difference to the likely result of an election, so here are the numbers. Icknield ward, 2001, 2011 White British 78.1%. 61.2% White Other 6.2% 7.3% Mixed. 1.7%. 3.8% Asian 10.0% 20.5% Black 3.4%. 6.1% Other. 0.7% 1.2% Assuming similar trends still exist the Tories are probably done here. |
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Post by tonygreaves on Sept 26, 2019 23:15:06 GMT
If you lived in East Lancashire, you would know why his Lordship was asking ... Oh come on,lots of unscrupulous Brexit Party "supporters" have been recently calling foul on the Peterborough by-election result because apparently lots of Asians voted it in. The allegations of electoral fraud were investigated by the police and guess what- it didn't happen. I live in the Borough of Reading,which has a sizeable Asian population and we've never had any instances of electoral fraud that I can remember, the same extending to communities like the London Borough of Newham where the proportion of the population of British Asian origin is even larger. I am not making any allegations of any kind. Just saying that there have been some recent elections where good Labour performances have been associated with strong support and high turnout from South Asian communities. Just a fact, not wrong with it but a trend. I am interested to know if this is a factor in this result, just as I am interested to know what is behind every result! |
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Post by yellowperil on Sept 26, 2019 23:23:47 GMT
Oh come on,lots of unscrupulous Brexit Party "supporters" have been recently calling foul on the Peterborough by-election result because apparently lots of Asians voted it in. The allegations of electoral fraud were investigated by the police and guess what- it didn't happen. I live in the Borough of Reading,which has a sizeable Asian population and we've never had any instances of electoral fraud that I can remember, the same extending to communities like the London Borough of Newham where the proportion of the population of British Asian origin is even larger. I am not making any allegations of any kind. Just saying that there have been some recent elections where good Labour performances have been associated with strong support and high turnout from South Asian communities. Just a fact, not wrong with it but a trend. I am interested to know if this is a factor in this result, just as I am interested to know what is behind every result! Whether are not there were demographic issues at play here, the Labour vote was actually declining here, just not as fast as the Tory one. If the trends shown in this election continued into the next elections, Lib Dems would be in first place! |
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Sept 26, 2019 23:25:00 GMT
Oh come on,lots of unscrupulous Brexit Party "supporters" have been recently calling foul on the Peterborough by-election result because apparently lots of Asians voted it in. The allegations of electoral fraud were investigated by the police and guess what- it didn't happen. I live in the Borough of Reading,which has a sizeable Asian population and we've never had any instances of electoral fraud that I can remember, the same extending to communities like the London Borough of Newham where the proportion of the population of British Asian origin is even larger. I am not making any allegations of any kind. Just saying that there have been some recent elections where good Labour performances have been associated with strong support and high turnout from South Asian communities. Just a fact, not wrong with it but a trend. I am interested to know if this is a factor in this result, just as I am interested to know what is behind every result! Good,glad to hear it, it's just we've had a lot of malicious allegations recently relating to Labour and the South Asian community recently and I suppose we're all on edge  . I think it might be a factor in the result, but I think it might be to do with Boris Johnson finishing the job of driving away Tory Remainers and a general shift of Luton's less well off community to Labour. The recent conference announcements on housing may have helped us in the SE with the desperate housing crisis we have. There also may be local factors at play that I don't know of. |
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Sept 26, 2019 23:28:45 GMT
I am not making any allegations of any kind. Just saying that there have been some recent elections where good Labour performances have been associated with strong support and high turnout from South Asian communities. Just a fact, not wrong with it but a trend. I am interested to know if this is a factor in this result, just as I am interested to know what is behind every result! Whether are not there were demographic issues at play here, the Labour vote was actually declining here, just not as fast as the Tory one. If the trends shown in this election continued into the next elections, Lib Dems would be in first place! Yes, but I think there was no Green candidate there last time so the Greens can return to voting for their own candidate and the Lib Dems are returning to be the home for the local protest vote. |
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Post by ideal4radio on Sept 26, 2019 23:33:22 GMT
If you lived in East Lancashire, you would know why his Lordship was asking ... Oh come on,lots of unscrupulous Brexit Party "supporters" have been recently calling foul on the Peterborough by-election result because apparently lots of Asians voted it in. The allegations of electoral fraud were investigated by the police and guess what- it didn't happen. I live in the Borough of Reading,which has a sizeable Asian population and we've never had any instances of electoral fraud that I can remember, the same extending to communities like the London Borough of Newham where the proportion of the population of British Asian origin is even larger. I don't think either his Lordship nor a humble commoner such as myself were suggesting any fraud. My point is that in parts of East Lancashire, the turnout and percentage of postal voters in wards with a high proportion of Pakistani/Bangladeshi heritage voters, is significantly higher than in other wards, and they largely vote Labour. For example, one ward in Burnley has over 30% postal voters, which is nearly double the average of the rest of the Borough. |
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Sept 26, 2019 23:34:26 GMT
I am not making any allegations of any kind. Just saying that there have been some recent elections where good Labour performances have been associated with strong support and high turnout from South Asian communities. Just a fact, not wrong with it but a trend. I am interested to know if this is a factor in this result, just as I am interested to know what is behind every result! Good,glad to hear it, it's just we've had a lot of malicious allegations recently relating to Labour and the South Asian community recently and I suppose we're all on edge . I think it might be a factor in the result, but I think it might be to do with Boris Johnson finishing the job of driving away Tory Remainers and a general shift of Luton's less well off community to Labour. The recent conference announcements on housing may have helped us in the SE with the desperate housing crisis we have. There also may be local factors at play that I don't know of. Probably worth mentioning that Labour were only five votes off the second seat in the Ward in May on a 7% swing, in what Andrew’s Previews said was a bad night for the Tories across Luton. IIRC Andrew also said that the Labour candidate was the only one to give an address in the Ward, which may be worth a few votes. Meanwhile |
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Post by andrew111 on Sept 26, 2019 23:37:39 GMT
Whether are not there were demographic issues at play here, the Labour vote was actually declining here, just not as fast as the Tory one. If the trends shown in this election continued into the next elections, Lib Dems would be in first place! Yes, but I think there was no Green candidate there last time so the Greens can return to voting for their own candidate and the Lib Dems are returning to be the home for the local protest vote. I agree there is such a thing as a protest vote. Whoever is in control of the council, the other Parties are a home for protest votes. Labour get protest votes where there are Tory councils and vice versa. What is happening now is that a lot of people have decided they prefer the Lib Dems to the Conservatives and Labour, and this has been reflected in increased Lib Dem votes in most by-elections since May. These are just Lib Dem voters, not protest voters. |
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Sept 26, 2019 23:41:15 GMT
Yes, but I think there was no Green candidate there last time so the Greens can return to voting for their own candidate and the Lib Dems are returning to be the home for the local protest vote. I agree there is such a thing as a protest vote. Whoever is in control of the council, the other Parties are a home for protest votes. Labour get protest votes where there are Tory councils and vice versa. What is happening now is that a lot of people have decided they prefer the Lib Dems to the Conservatives and Labour, and this has been reflected in increased Lib Dem votes in most by-elections since May. These are just Lib Dem voters, not protest voters. You may be correct,but what makes these people vote Lib Dem now when the Lib Dems have been in the doldrums in Luton for so long. Most of the electorate of the ward probably hasn't changed since the last election. |
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Sept 26, 2019 23:42:02 GMT
Good,glad to hear it, it's just we've had a lot of malicious allegations recently relating to Labour and the South Asian community recently and I suppose we're all on edge . I think it might be a factor in the result, but I think it might be to do with Boris Johnson finishing the job of driving away Tory Remainers and a general shift of Luton's less well off community to Labour. The recent conference announcements on housing may have helped us in the SE with the desperate housing crisis we have. There also may be local factors at play that I don't know of. Probably worth mentioning that Labour were only five votes off the second seat in the Ward in May on a 7% swing, in what Andrew’s Previews said was a bad night for the Tories across Luton. IIRC Andrew also said that the Labour candidate was the only one to give an address in the Ward, which may be worth a few votes. Meanwhile Yes, it is probably long-term demographic change. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 26, 2019 23:42:36 GMT
CRAWLEY Tilgate
MWAGALE, Maureen (Conservative) 741
KHAN, Kiran (Labour) 396
OLD, Angharad (Liberal Democrat) 82
HARDMAN, Derek (Green) 75
KHAN, Arshad (Justice Party) 5
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Post by yellowperil on Sept 26, 2019 23:43:28 GMT
Whether are not there were demographic issues at play here, the Labour vote was actually declining here, just not as fast as the Tory one. If the trends shown in this election continued into the next elections, Lib Dems would be in first place! Yes, but I think there was no Green candidate there last time so the Greens can return to voting for their own candidate and the Lib Dems are returning to be the home for the local protest vote. Eh? This is Icknield we are talking about? Don't think there's ever been a Green candidate there. |
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Post by agbutler on Sept 26, 2019 23:43:52 GMT
CRAWLEY Tilgate MWAGALE, Maureen (Conservative) 741 KHAN, Kiran (Labour) 396 OLD, Angharad (Liberal Democrat) 82 HARDMAN, Derek (Green) 75 KHAN, Arshad (Justice Party) 5 Wow |
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Post by ideal4radio on Sept 26, 2019 23:52:00 GMT
Crawley Tilgate ....
Con 57 %
Lab 30.7 %
L/D 6.3 %
Gr 5.8 %
Just 0.4 %
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Post by yellowperil on Sept 26, 2019 23:52:16 GMT
CRAWLEY Tilgate MWAGALE, Maureen (Conservative) 741 KHAN, Kiran (Labour) 396 OLD, Angharad (Liberal Democrat) 82 HARDMAN, Derek (Green) 75 KHAN, Arshad (Justice Party) 5 Lib Dems were coming from nowhere here so nothing much expected beyond a presence on the ballot paper, but that's the second week running we've had a Lib Dem candidate called Old not do all that well. At least she beat the Hardman |
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Post by timmullen1 on Sept 27, 2019 0:39:41 GMT
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cj
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Post by cj on Sept 27, 2019 2:08:35 GMT
Could be some promising chances for Labour in this batch. West Sussex, Crawley and Luton could all deliver for them, which will make for a somewhat different week. Also good to see we have candidates in every one of these, which must be the first time that has happened for some time. I believe our Luton candidate has been a candidate many times before, but not in that particular ward. The collapse in LD fortunes in the Ipswich ward is very stark. I assume their councillor there was a one person band and nobody has taken over the mantle. Alexandra ward covers the town centre fair amount of students, young professionals, fairly Boho. The LDs had and held both seats for a good few years. |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Sept 27, 2019 5:54:45 GMT
That’s a bit of a surprise! Not really- the other two seats in the ward are Conservative. That’s true, and I take the point about South Essex not being great for your party, but a swing to the Conservatives in a seat where you started from a good second in May, and needed a 6% swing, is a bit of a contrast to most results in recent weeks. You have gained some seats from the Conservatives that are, on paper, at least,, much less likely than this one was. |
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. I think it might be a factor in the result, but I think it might be to do with Boris Johnson finishing the job of driving away Tory Remainers and a general shift of Luton's less well off community to Labour. The recent conference announcements on housing may have helped us in the SE with the desperate housing crisis we have. There also may be local factors at play that I don't know of.
