Local Council By-elections 26th September 2019

[Tony Otim]

CRAWLEY BC; Tilgate (Con died)
Candidates:
HARDMAN, Derek (Green)
KHAN, Arshad (Justice Party)
KHAN, Kiran (Labour)
MWAGALE, Maureen (Conservative)
OLD, Angharad (Liberal Democrat)

2019: Con 803, 651; Lab 646, 631; Grn 259

Kiran Khan was the top Labour candidate in May. Derek Hardman also stood for the Greens on that occasion and stood in the old Tilgate ward in every election since 2011. The old ward was Labour in 2016, 2012, an October 2010 by-election and 2004, but Conservative in 2007, 2008, 2011 and 2015.

Current Council: Lab 19; Con 16; 1 vacancy



IPSWICH BC; Alexandra (Lab resigned)
Candidates:
RAE, Adam (Labour)
REYNOLDS, Lee Chadwick (Conservative)
WILLIAMS, Henry Alberto (Liberal Democrats)
WILMOT, Tom (Green)

2019: Lab 1034; Con 379; Grn 341; LD 172
2018: Lab 1245; Con 499; Grn 190; LD 147
2016: Lab 1019; Con 478; Grn 219; LD 177
2015: Lab 1805; Con 1327; Grn 534; LD 311
2014: Lab 935, 917; UKIP 444; Con 400, 331; Grn 390; LD 215, 180
May 13by: Lab 772; UKIP 279; Con 274; Grn 193; LD 126
2012: Lab 1005; LD 349; Con 311; Grn 197
2011: Lab 1158; LD 577; Con 449; Grn 155
2010: LD 1293, 1271; Lab 1150, 1084; Con 899, 828
2008: LD 681, Lab 508; Con 408; Grn 211
2007: LD 756; Lab 531; Con 377; Grn 188
2006: LD 734; Lab 603; Con 413; Grn 213
2004: LD 802; Lab 661; Con 483
2003: LD 807; Lab 649; Con 321; Grn 106
2002: Lab 794, 720, 672; LD 687, 675, 651; Con 355, 328, 316

The Lib Dem stood here in May and the Green in the last two elections.

Current Council: Lab 35; Con 9; LD 3; 1 vacancy



LUTON UA; Icknield (Con died)
Candidates:
BAKER, John David (Conservative)
MASOOD, Asif (Labour)
MOORE, Steve Barry (Liberal Democrat)
SCHEIMANN, Marc (Green

2019: Con 822, 803; Lab 787, 663; LD 251, 221
2015: Con 1854, 1761; Lab 1289, 969; LD 389, 300
2011: Con 1325, 1226; Con 930, 856; LD 245, 172
2007: Con 1383, 1328; Lab 437, 267; LD 385, 332
2003: Con 977, 948; Lab 461, 449; LD 240, 226

The Labour candidate was the top Labour candidate this May

Current Council: Lab 32; LD 12; Con 3; 1 vacancy



ROCHFORD DC; Sweyne Park & Grange (Res resigned)
Candidates:
BELTON, Danielle Louise (Conservative)
NEWPORT, Lisa (Liberal Democrats)
WAIGHT, Jill (Green)

2019: Con 702; LD 538; Lab 180
2018: Con 784; LD 622; Lab 200
2016: Rochford District Residents 847; Con 785, 514, 464; LD 599; Lab 375

Lisa Newport contested the ward for the Lib Dems in May this year. The Lib Dem elected in 2016 who lost their seat last year was James Newport.

Current Council: Con 26; Rochford District Residents 3; Grn 3; LD 3; Friends of Rochford 1; Rayleigh Independents 1; Independent 1; 1 vacancy


WEST SUSSEX CC; Three Bridges (Con died)
Candidates:
ANDERSON, David Lee (Liberal Democrat)
BURGESS, Brenda (Conservative)
KAIL, Danielle (Green)
KHAN, Arshad (Justice Party)
MALIK, Angela (Labour)

2017: Con 1303; Lab 1157; LD 164; UKIP 155; Grn 119

Brenda Burgess is a Conservative councillor for Three Bridges ward on Crawley BC. The LD and the Green both stood here in 2017.

Current Council: Con 53; LD 8; Lab 5; Ind Con 2; Ind 1; 1 vacancy.

[Chris from Brum]

I note that the Justice Party candidate is the same in both Three Bridges (W Sussex) and Tilgate (Crawley). Is there a lot of overlap? And what is the Justice party about? There was a People's Justice Party in Birmingham (now wound up) that had Kashmir as one of its main reasons for existence. Is this similar?

[iang]

The Birmingham version originally ran as "Justice for Kashmir" Party if I recall correctly

[Chris from Brum]

Sept 9, 2019 12:22:15 GMT iang said:

The Birmingham version originally ran as "Justice for Kashmir" Party if I recall correctly

Yes, that was their original name, with the initialism of JFK, which caused some amusement.

[peterl]

Could be some promising chances for Labour in this batch. West Sussex, Crawley and Luton could all deliver for them, which will make for a somewhat different week.

[andrew111]

Sept 9, 2019 22:25:59 GMT peterl said:

Could be some promising chances for Labour in this batch. West Sussex, Crawley and Luton could all deliver for them, which will make for a somewhat different week.

Not much has been delivering for Labour recently...

[froome]

Sept 9, 2019 22:25:59 GMT peterl said:

Could be some promising chances for Labour in this batch. West Sussex, Crawley and Luton could all deliver for them, which will make for a somewhat different week.

Also good to see we have candidates in every one of these, which must be the first time that has happened for some time. I believe our Luton candidate has been a candidate many times before, but not in that particular ward.

The collapse in LD fortunes in the Ipswich ward is very stark. I assume their councillor there was a one person band and nobody has taken over the mantle.

[Tony Otim]

Sept 10, 2019 3:13:12 GMT froome said:

Sept 9, 2019 22:25:59 GMT peterl said:

Could be some promising chances for Labour in this batch. West Sussex, Crawley and Luton could all deliver for them, which will make for a somewhat different week.

Also good to see we have candidates in every one of these, which must be the first time that has happened for some time. I believe our Luton candidate has been a candidate many times before, but not in that particular ward.

The collapse in LD fortunes in the Ipswich ward is very stark. I assume their councillor there was a one person band and nobody has taken over the mantle.

With regards to Ipswich, the Lib Dems held all 3 seats in the ward from 2006-2011, so not really a one man band, but somewhere that turned sharply against them due to the coalition and where they've not yet been able to recover. How well they do in the by-election will be interesting.

[andrew111]

Sept 10, 2019 6:01:40 GMT Tony Otim said:

Sept 10, 2019 3:13:12 GMT froome said:

Also good to see we have candidates in every one of these, which must be the first time that has happened for some time. I believe our Luton candidate has been a candidate many times before, but not in that particular ward.

The collapse in LD fortunes in the Ipswich ward is very stark. I assume their councillor there was a one person band and nobody has taken over the mantle.

With regards to Ipswich, the Lib Dems held all 3 seats in the ward from 2006-2011, so not really a one man band, but somewhere that turned sharply against them due to the coalition and where they've not yet been able to recover. How well they do in the by-election will be interesting.

It happened in many Labour facing wards

[tonygreaves]

Why no Labour candidate in Rochford?

For Labour to win anything other than in Ipswich, their vote will have to go up. Not happened much since May.

[tonygreaves]

After today's complete shambles in Brighton, will anyone ever vote Labour again? (They will of course, but oh dear, oh dear - and this party thinks it could run the country?)

[ricmk]

Sept 23, 2019 19:35:47 GMT tonygreaves said:

After today's complete shambles in Brighton, will anyone ever vote Labour again? (They will of course, but oh dear, oh dear - and this party thinks it could run the country?)

A bit too close to the bubble Tony? You and I may have the same view of the Labour conference. But I reckon that if you asked this weeks by-election voters to tell you who had their conference and anything that happened there, you’d draw a lot of blanks - including from Labour voters.

[tonygreaves]

As I said - they will of course. Some will even vote Conservative after today...

[greenhert]

Regarding the Three Bridges by-election, I presume Danielle Kail is the wife of Richard Kail, who was going to stand as the Green Party parliamentary candidate in Crawley in 2017 but pulled out because of the "Progressive Alliance".

[ideal4radio]

Sept 24, 2019 13:25:07 GMT tonygreaves said:

As I said - they will of course. Some will even vote Conservative after today...

 And some may even vote L/D, even after their denial of the 2016 Referendum result last week .... 

[Deleted]

Sept 18, 2019 15:58:16 GMT tonygreaves said:

Why no Labour candidate in Rochford?

For Labour to win anything other than in Ipswich, their vote will have to go up. Not happened much since May.

or not fall as much as the incumbent

[mattb]

Sept 24, 2019 16:42:14 GMT @priceofdawn said:

Sept 18, 2019 15:58:16 GMT tonygreaves said:

Why no Labour candidate in Rochford?

For Labour to win anything other than in Ipswich, their vote will have to go up. Not happened much since May.

or not fall as much as the incumbent

With a finite number of candidates, that technique only works if you're starting relatively close to the incumbent, of course.

[Deleted]

Sept 24, 2019 18:29:44 GMT mattb said:

Sept 24, 2019 16:42:14 GMT @priceofdawn said:

or not fall as much as the incumbent

With a finite number of candidates, that technique only works if you're starting relatively close to the incumbent, of course.

swings needed;Luton 1%, three bridges 2.5% Crawley 4.5%

[timmullen1]

Andrew’s Previews for this week:

britainelects.com/2019/09/25/previews-26-sep-2019/

[Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells]

Sept 23, 2019 19:35:47 GMT tonygreaves said:

After today's complete shambles in Brighton, will anyone ever vote Labour again? (They will of course, but oh dear, oh dear - and this party thinks it could run the country?)

I don't get this-we are offering an option for both Remainers and Leavers. If we endorsed Leave wholeheartedly,then we'd lose masses of Remainers, but under our new policy,Remain is still possible and a 2nd ref voting to Remain is much more likely than Revoke in terms of getting that through Parliament.