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Post by robbienicoll on Sept 27, 2019 6:01:53 GMT
Headline figures. Tilgate, Crawley: 8.7% swing from Labour to Conservative since May. Conservative hold. Alexandra, Ipswich: 7.1% swing from Labour to Liberal Democrats since May, 11.1% since 2018, 7% since 2016 and 3.5% since 2015. Labour hold. Icknield, Luton: 1.6% swing from Conservative to Labour since May and 8.7% since 2015. Labour gain from Conservative, the first since June 20th (Walkden South, Salford). Sweyne Park and Grange, Rochford: 0.4% swing from Liberal Democrat to Conservative since May, 1.1% since 2018 and 2.6% since 2016. Conservative gain from Rochford District Residents. Three Bridges, West Sussex: 8.6% swing from Labour to Conservative since 2017. Conservative hold. Full stats at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ACiXs2yMQAwXSEVTDLY1iaH6wDzHYM1psvUUTPlnoGI/edit?usp=sharing |
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Post by evergreenadam on Sept 27, 2019 6:03:05 GMT
Probably worth mentioning that Labour were only five votes off the second seat in the Ward in May on a 7% swing, in what Andrew’s Previews said was a bad night for the Tories across Luton. IIRC Andrew also said that the Labour candidate was the only one to give an address in the Ward, which may be worth a few votes. Meanwhile Yes, it is probably long-term demographic change. Yes, the long term change across Luton since 1992 when the Tories held both parliamentary seats is stark. |
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Post by dizz on Sept 27, 2019 6:05:06 GMT
CRAWLEY Tilgate MWAGALE, Maureen (Conservative) 741 KHAN, Kiran (Labour) 396 OLD, Angharad (Liberal Democrat) 82 HARDMAN, Derek (Green) 75 KHAN, Arshad (Justice Party) 5 Wow Wow indeed as regards the Tory vote. |
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Post by andrewp on Sept 27, 2019 6:08:04 GMT
Headline figures. Tilgate, Crawley: 8.7% swing from Labour to Conservative since May. Conservative hold. Alexandra, Ipswich: 7.1% swing from Labour to Liberal Democrats since May, 11.1% since 2018, 7% since 2016 and 3.5% since 2015. Labour hold. Icknield, Luton: 1.6% swing from Conservative to Labour since May and 8.7% since 2015. Labour gain from Conservative, the first since June 20th (Walkden South, Salford). Sweyne Park and Grange, Rochford: 0.4% swing from Liberal Democrat to Conservative since May, 1.1% since 2018 and 2.6% since 2016. Conservative gain from Rochford District Residents. Three Bridges, West Sussex: 8.6% swing from Labour to Conservative since 2017. Conservative hold. Full stats at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ACiXs2yMQAwXSEVTDLY1iaH6wDzHYM1psvUUTPlnoGI/edit?usp=sharingConservative share up in 3, down in 2 Labour share down in 4 Lib Dem share up in 3, down in 1. Considering the week it’s been, those are decent results for the Conservatives. Contrary to the belief of the BBC, I’m not sure this week, or indeed most national events, are changing many minds, they are just hardening opinions. |
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ColinJ
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Post by ColinJ on Sept 27, 2019 6:44:40 GMT
..... and a goodly proportion sent by post before this week's extraordinary events.
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Sept 27, 2019 7:05:11 GMT
..... and a goodly proportion sent by post before this week's extraordinary events. Yes, that is a very fair point. Although I still don’t think opinions have changed. its interesting that in polls, a politician can do almost anything and retain support, unless it involves the Queen. |
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Post by yellowperil on Sept 27, 2019 7:06:02 GMT
People's local votes can often be different from their national ones. 👽 Quite obviously that is true, and yet if you look at the local elections week after week the national trends do emerge and results which go against that trend stand out, always inviting the question as to whether this a purely local issue or the start of a new trend. For example, the rise in the Lib Dem vote from its post-coalition doldrums to something approaching its pre-coalition strength in recent months has generally transcended the local variations. Then when it doesn't happen as in Rochford this week, we inevitably ask whether the public mood is changing again as we get near a general election, whether it's a geographical Brexit effect in a strongly Leave area, or whether its purely something entirely local and nothing to do with national politics at all. It is worth noticing for example that the candidate who lost there yesterday had the same surname (wife?) as the previous incumbent who had lost the seat before- was there a personal effect? |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 27, 2019 7:22:00 GMT
I am not making any allegations of any kind. Just saying that there have been some recent elections where good Labour performances have been associated with strong support and high turnout from South Asian communities. Just a fact, not wrong with it but a trend. I am interested to know if this is a factor in this result, just as I am interested to know what is behind every result! Good,glad to hear it, it's just we've had a lot of malicious allegations recently relating to Labour and the South Asian community recently and I suppose we're all on edge  . I think it might be a factor in the result, but I think it might be to do with Boris Johnson finishing the job of driving away Tory Remainers and a general shift of Luton's less well off community to Labour. The recent conference announcements on housing may have helped us in the SE with the desperate housing crisis we have. There also may be local factors at play that I don't know of. This is one of the most upmarket wards in Luton and it's clear that the rapid increase in the Asian population is the reason for the drift to Labour. Barnfield ward (which was carved out of the original Icknield ward and is if anything even more upmarket on most indicators) had already completed the transformation and this is why Luton North (which would have still been quite comfortably Conservative on current boundaries in 1992) is now a very safe Labour seat even when they are losing nationally. It's hardly controversial to note this. Being from an ethnic minority is the surest predictor of Labour voting now. |
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Post by andrew111 on Sept 27, 2019 7:59:39 GMT
Good,glad to hear it, it's just we've had a lot of malicious allegations recently relating to Labour and the South Asian community recently and I suppose we're all on edge . I think it might be a factor in the result, but I think it might be to do with Boris Johnson finishing the job of driving away Tory Remainers and a general shift of Luton's less well off community to Labour. The recent conference announcements on housing may have helped us in the SE with the desperate housing crisis we have. There also may be local factors at play that I don't know of. This is one of the most upmarket wards in Luton and it's clear that the rapid increase in the Asian population is the reason for the drift to Labour. Barnfield ward (which was carved out of the original Icknield ward and is if anything even more upmarket on most indicators) had already completed the transformation and this is why Luton North (which would have still been quite comfortably Conservative on current boundaries in 1992) is now a very safe Labour seat even when they are losing nationally. It's hardly controversial to note this. Being from an ethnic minority is the surest predictor of Labour voting now. Unless you count Jewish as an ethnicity... (I am honestly not sure about that!) |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 27, 2019 8:12:26 GMT
This is one of the most upmarket wards in Luton and it's clear that the rapid increase in the Asian population is the reason for the drift to Labour. Barnfield ward (which was carved out of the original Icknield ward and is if anything even more upmarket on most indicators) had already completed the transformation and this is why Luton North (which would have still been quite comfortably Conservative on current boundaries in 1992) is now a very safe Labour seat even when they are losing nationally. It's hardly controversial to note this. Being from an ethnic minority is the surest predictor of Labour voting now. Unless you count Jewish as an ethnicity... (I am honestly not sure about that!) Well I wasn't including it in my point, but then you can say that being Jewish is also a strong indicator of voting behaviour. Obviously if there was a by-election in a ward with a large Jewish population, it would be worth mentioning it , say in the context of a better than otherwise expected Conservative result. So it is here re: Asian Labour voters. To suggest these factors aren't relevant to voting behaviour, or worse to get offended at the obvious statement that they are is, to coin a phrase, humbug |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 27, 2019 8:18:29 GMT
Unless you count Jewish as an ethnicity... (I am honestly not sure about that!) Well I wasn't including it in my point, but then you can say that being Jewish is also a strong indicator of voting behaviour. Obviously if there was a by-election in a ward with a large Jewish population, it would be worth mentioning it , say in the context of a better than otherwise expected Conservative result. So it is here re: Asian Labour voters. To suggest these factors aren't relevant to voting behaviour, or worse to get offended at the obvious statement that they are is, to coin a phrase, humbug True, and a point I have often made. I'd add the proviso, though, that "Asian" without qualification is not the most useful description. South Asian Muslims tend to be pretty solid Labour voters, but Hindus and Sikhs somewhat less so. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 27, 2019 8:21:08 GMT
Well I wasn't including it in my point, but then you can say that being Jewish is also a strong indicator of voting behaviour. Obviously if there was a by-election in a ward with a large Jewish population, it would be worth mentioning it , say in the context of a better than otherwise expected Conservative result. So it is here re: Asian Labour voters. To suggest these factors aren't relevant to voting behaviour, or worse to get offended at the obvious statement that they are is, to coin a phrase, humbug True, and a point I have often made. I'd add the proviso, though, that "Asian" without qualification is not the most useful description. South Asian Muslims tend to be pretty solid Labour voters, but Hindus and Sikhs somewhat less so. Yes of course, but in Luton it is overwhelmingly the former and on a forum like this I tend to assume that people are aware of stuff like this |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 27, 2019 8:26:44 GMT
True, and a point I have often made. I'd add the proviso, though, that "Asian" without qualification is not the most useful description. South Asian Muslims tend to be pretty solid Labour voters, but Hindus and Sikhs somewhat less so. Yes of course, but in Luton it is overwhelmingly the former and on a forum like this I tend to assume that people are aware of stuff like this The fact that ethnicity is one of the most important factors driving voting behaviour is something that some people are uncomfortable about recognising. Even polling companies rarely filter for it. |
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Post by andrew111 on Sept 27, 2019 8:45:07 GMT
Unless you count Jewish as an ethnicity... (I am honestly not sure about that!) Well I wasn't including it in my point, but then you can say that being Jewish is also a strong indicator of voting behaviour. Obviously if there was a by-election in a ward with a large Jewish population, it would be worth mentioning it , say in the context of a better than otherwise expected Conservative result. So it is here re: Asian Labour voters. To suggest these factors aren't relevant to voting behaviour, or worse to get offended at the obvious statement that they are is, to coin a phrase, humbug I agree. It is a factor just like wealth, age, education etc, and a complex one. Ethnic minority communities can vote against each other too. And of course are swayed by events in Kashmir and Myanmar etc that the British media barely notice I was interested to learn that in Huddersfield there is a significant Christian south Asian community (well over 1000) |
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Toylyyev
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Post by Toylyyev on Sept 27, 2019 8:49:13 GMT
Comparing the numbers from yesterday's by-elections below Con Lab LD Grn JP votes electorate
Tilgate 741 396 82 70 5 1294 4455
Alexandra 278 734 287 164 - 1463 6967
Icknield 563 585 407 37 - 1592 5905
Sweyne P. 541 - 407 140 - 1088 5050 with those from the 2019 locals below (average vote) Con Lab LD Grn votes electorate
Tilgate 727 638.5 - 259 1624.5 4391
Alexandra 379 1034 172 341 1926 6835
Icknield 812.5 725 236 - 1773.5 5988
Sweyne P. 702 180 538 - 1420 5103 yields where applicable: Con 39% (+0.1) - 4 wards
Lab 39.4% (-5.6) - 3 wards
LD 26.6% (+8.1) - 3 wards
Grn 8.5% (-8.4) - 2 wards
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Post by bjornhattan on Sept 27, 2019 8:50:31 GMT
Yes of course, but in Luton it is overwhelmingly the former and on a forum like this I tend to assume that people are aware of stuff like this The fact that ethnicity is one of the most important factors driving voting behaviour is something that some people are uncomfortable about recognising. Even polling companies rarely filter for it. One issue is of course the relatively small number of ethnic minorities. If a poll has 600 people, perhaps 100 at most will come from an ethnic minority. You certainly can't get any more granular than that, but you probably don't need to. Another big driver (increasingly now) is English vs British identity. Of all the variables on the census, how many people identified as English but not British is the best predictor of an area's vote in the EU referendum. |
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markf
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Post by markf on Sept 27, 2019 8:57:47 GMT
People's local votes can often be different from their national ones. 👽 Yes I vote differently in a local election to a GE |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 27, 2019 9:11:23 GMT
The fact that ethnicity is one of the most important factors driving voting behaviour is something that some people are uncomfortable about recognising. Even polling companies rarely filter for it. One issue is of course the relatively small number of ethnic minorities. If a poll has 600 people, perhaps 100 at most will come from an ethnic minority. You certainly can't get any more granular than that, but you probably don't need to. Another big driver (increasingly now) is English vs British identity. Of all the variables on the census, how many people identified as English but not British is the best predictor of an area's vote in the EU referendum. Not always, Lord Ashcroft and the British Social Attitudes surveys typically have samples approaching 10,000. There are also, not infrequently, sub-national or even constituency polls. Ethnicity is almost never recorded. |
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Post by bjornhattan on Sept 27, 2019 9:14:58 GMT
One issue is of course the relatively small number of ethnic minorities. If a poll has 600 people, perhaps 100 at most will come from an ethnic minority. You certainly can't get any more granular than that, but you probably don't need to. Another big driver (increasingly now) is English vs British identity. Of all the variables on the census, how many people identified as English but not British is the best predictor of an area's vote in the EU referendum. Not always, Lord Ashcroft and the British Social Attitudes surveys typically have samples approaching 10,000. There are also, not infrequently, sub-national or even constituency polls. Ethnicity is almost never recorded. The only exception to this that I vaguely remember seeing was a (regular sized) poll which was entirely focused on London. Which makes sense given the demographics of London, where the electorate is much more ethnically diverse than elsewhere. One issue might be weighting though - 45% of London's population are White British, but what percentage of the electorate is? |
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Post by matureleft on Sept 27, 2019 9:17:48 GMT
Good,glad to hear it, it's just we've had a lot of malicious allegations recently relating to Labour and the South Asian community recently and I suppose we're all on edge . I think it might be a factor in the result, but I think it might be to do with Boris Johnson finishing the job of driving away Tory Remainers and a general shift of Luton's less well off community to Labour. The recent conference announcements on housing may have helped us in the SE with the desperate housing crisis we have. There also may be local factors at play that I don't know of. This is one of the most upmarket wards in Luton and it's clear that the rapid increase in the Asian population is the reason for the drift to Labour. Barnfield ward (which was carved out of the original Icknield ward and is if anything even more upmarket on most indicators) had already completed the transformation and this is why Luton North (which would have still been quite comfortably Conservative on current boundaries in 1992) is now a very safe Labour seat even when they are losing nationally. It's hardly controversial to note this. Being from an ethnic minority is the surest predictor of Labour voting now. That's broadly true, with the qualifiers noted below. It's also true, again broadly, regardless of economic circumstances. To take an example local to me, an affluent housing estate on the edge of Derby has a very large (but not majority) primarily Sikh population, almost all second or third generation British residents. It's full of professionals and small business people. They are aspirational for themselves and their children. The estate votes overwhelmingly Labour (with one local Sikh and one white British councillor who doesn't live in the ward but is active) . They get similar votes.
Without wishing to be argumentative there is an alternative way of looking at this. Why are such voters not attracted to a party with a programme that would appear to be aligned with their economic interests? Why are the Conservatives so signally failing to reach such people? I attended meetings led by Dominic Grieve with Sikhs presumably aimed at rectifying that.
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. I think it might be a factor in the result, but I think it might be to do with Boris Johnson finishing the job of driving away Tory Remainers and a general shift of Luton's less well off community to Labour. The recent conference announcements on housing may have helped us in the SE with the desperate housing crisis we have. There also may be local factors at play that I don't know of.
