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Post by yellowperil on Sept 20, 2019 9:18:23 GMT
There seems a common thread starting to appear, about really posh traditionally ultra-Tory areas swinging towards the Lib Dems, which in the present political situation may make some sense. I'm still debating with myself whether if this is true it is a Good Thing! Of course now that the Tory Party has adopted Fuck Business as its rallying cry there is a gaping hole to be filled by somebody and I'd rather it was the Lib Dems filled it than the far Right. I wonder whether the posher Tory areas are where the Tory remainers were? And they obviously have a reason to vote Lib Dem at the moment. In Taunton at the moment, the most middle class areas are now all quite comfortably Lib Dem. Although I think that the fact that they are near County Hall and Musgrove Park Hospital and are popular with workers from those places is a factor. Also, the Lib Dem’s gained the council here in May and success breeds success. I’m sure they are very motivated at the moment. Theres another almost certain Lib Dem gain on Somerset West and Taunton coming in a few weeks. My granddaughter lives in Norton Fitzwarren! |
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Post by andrewp on Sept 20, 2019 9:24:07 GMT
I wonder whether the posher Tory areas are where the Tory remainers were? And they obviously have a reason to vote Lib Dem at the moment. In Taunton at the moment, the most middle class areas are now all quite comfortably Lib Dem. Although I think that the fact that they are near County Hall and Musgrove Park Hospital and are popular with workers from those places is a factor. Also, the Lib Dem’s gained the council here in May and success breeds success. I’m sure they are very motivated at the moment. Theres another almost certain Lib Dem gain on Somerset West and Taunton coming in a few weeks. My granddaughter lives in Norton Fitzwarren! Will you be encouraging her to contribute to the Lib Dem cause?! |
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Post by yellowperil on Sept 20, 2019 9:28:29 GMT
My granddaughter lives in Norton Fitzwarren! Will you be encouraging her to contribute to the Lib Dem cause?! I don't think she's very party political,but very definitely a remainer. Nuff said. |
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Post by polaris on Sept 20, 2019 9:44:38 GMT
Your concern for our welfare is genuinely touching. Though we are only "low 20s" recently in YouGov polls. As is so often the case, snarky passive-aggressive responses from Labour members on the forum inadvertently highlight the problem that they deny exists. It's not all about you, or the Labour Party, or the much-vaunted (but now rapidly shrinking) mass membership. My concern isn't for your welfare, it's for the country's. It's about the people of this country who deserve a credible alternative government to replace the shower of opportunists and alt-right buffoons that have seized power. Labour is the official opposition and has a constitutional and moral duty to offer that. But instead Labour has spent the last few years living out some student union Marxist fantasy, and squabbling about internal party process issues like trigger ballots. It has become self-absorbed and inward-looking, only interested in the needs and wishes of its own membership. You can see this on this forum, when people raise concerns about antisemitism, bullying or dire poll ratings, and are told by yourself or Merseymike that it's none of their business because they aren't Labour members. Actually, having a credible functioning parliamentary opposition is everyone's business. Unsurprisingly, the effect of this is that people who have voted for you all their lives are now reluctant to do so again. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 20, 2019 9:46:32 GMT
Old Swan (Liverpool) result: LAB: 55.4% (-17.0) LIB: 14.1% (+6.4) LDEM: 13.1% (+7.1) OSAC: 6.6% (+3.6) GRN: 6.2% (-1.6) CON: 4.6% (+1.4) Labour HOLD. Shame not to knock the Libs into third, but the Labour slide is significant. Is it really that much, though? Libs and LibDems both made an effort this time when they likely didn't in May. And of course this was once (just a decade ago) a LibDem ward, and by quite comfortable margins too. The proof will be next year's elections, but I wouldn't be surprised to then see Labour in around 70% territory again. |
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Post by andrewp on Sept 20, 2019 9:50:32 GMT
Will you be encouraging her to contribute to the Lib Dem cause?! I don't think she's very party political,but very definitely a remainer. Nuff said. The Lib Dem’s have been quite fortunate to have 2 by elections come up in Somerset West etc, both for seats that they would almost certainly have gained in May had they nominated full slates of candidates in the 2 wards. A second chance! |
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Sept 20, 2019 9:55:29 GMT
Old Swan (Liverpool) result: LAB: 55.4% (-17.0) LIB: 14.1% (+6.4) LDEM: 13.1% (+7.1) OSAC: 6.6% (+3.6) GRN: 6.2% (-1.6) CON: 4.6% (+1.4) Labour HOLD. Shame not to knock the Libs into third, but the Labour slide is significant. Is it really that much, though? Libs and LibDems both made an effort this time when they likely didn't in May. And of course this was once (just a decade ago) a LibDem ward, and by quite comfortable margins too. The proof will be next year's elections, but I wouldn't be surprised to then see Labour in around 70% territory again. -17% looks like quite a lot to me. And until we can clear Radford's mob out of the way, we're unlikely to be able to take this one back. But I think we're entitled to be encouraged by our move forward. In fact, we made advances in all the contests this week, anything from 5% to 21%, and made two or three seats into future targets as well as gaining one. I'm ok with that. |
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Post by lbarnes on Sept 20, 2019 9:55:42 GMT
Tories down in every one save their token candidacy in Liverpool. Labour held a seat most expected them to lose and another they could have lost on recent performances. I'll take that. The by-election results are consistent with Labour's national poll ratings in the low 20's. Will you take that as well? When was the last by-election where the Labour vote share didn't fall? |
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Sept 20, 2019 9:59:43 GMT
I don't think she's very party political,but very definitely a remainer. Nuff said. The Lib Dem’s have been quite fortunate to have 2 by elections come up in Somerset West etc, both for seats that they would almost certainly have gained in May had they nominated full slates of candidates in the 2 wards. A second chance! You ride your luck, to be honest. Sept 26th doesn't look like a particularly promising week for us, but Oct 3rd has a couple of possibilities, one of those being a defence and the other being the SW&T seat. |
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Sept 20, 2019 10:01:32 GMT
I am quite encouraged that with all the turmoil and the many attacks from every quarter upon Johnson and our party that we still retain such a firm core for these low level side shows. All due respect to the LD continuing surge but it does feel a bit on the soft side whereas Labour and Conservative are looking more at bedrock now. I can't see much to make predictions upon at present except to say that the majors are weathering the storm quite well.
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iang
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Post by iang on Sept 20, 2019 10:06:36 GMT
The Lib Dem’s have been quite fortunate to have 2 by elections come up in Somerset West etc, both for seats that they would almost certainly have gained in May had they nominated full slates of candidates in the 2 wards. A second chance! You ride your luck, to be honest. Sept 26th doesn't look like a particularly promising week for us, but Oct 3rd has a couple of possibilities, one of those being a defence and the other being the SW&T seat. The Rochford seat a possibility next week? |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 20, 2019 10:14:06 GMT
Your concern for our welfare is genuinely touching. Though we are only "low 20s" recently in YouGov polls. As is so often the case, snarky passive-aggressive responses from Labour members on the forum inadvertently highlight the problem that they deny exists Stop patronising us just because we don't share your alt-centrist view of the world. There will likely be a GE quite soon, we can decide whose perspective was the more accurate after that. But your desperation to count us out even before the fight has begun is telling. |
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Post by mike on Sept 20, 2019 10:15:43 GMT
The by-election results are consistent with Labour's national poll ratings in the low 20's. Will you take that as well? When was the last by-election where the Labour vote share didn't fall? A list of swings in each byelection between Labour and Conservative since Boris became PM almost consistently shows a swing to the Conservatives. I've only seen one in August where Labour had a swing from Conservative, other than where they didn't stand the previous time. |
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Sept 20, 2019 10:18:22 GMT
You ride your luck, to be honest. Sept 26th doesn't look like a particularly promising week for us, but Oct 3rd has a couple of possibilities, one of those being a defence and the other being the SW&T seat. The Rochford seat a possibility next week? Maybe, not sure. I don't know enough about the context. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 20, 2019 10:22:55 GMT
When was the last by-election where the Labour vote share didn't fall? A list of swings in each byelection between Labour and Conservative since Boris became PM almost consistently shows a swing to the Conservatives. I've only seen one in August where Labour had a swing from Conservative, other than where they didn't stand the previous time. The result in Canterbury is a small pro-Labour swing. Though the changes in Somerset are quite different depending on which method is used? |
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Post by carlton43 on Sept 20, 2019 10:39:29 GMT
Chestfield is a bit of an oddity and not a typical rock solid Conservative village seat at all. It is in that odd corridor served by the North Kent line and a form of post war extended commuter suburban sprawl facilitated by the better faster train service after electrification.
It is not a pretty, organic, old money, established (even posh although I don't like the word) nestling village. More a stream of gin palace mock tudor large detached houses for the 'done rather well' nouveau riche who are more trendy metropolitan and fashion conscious than old money Tory. It could go a bit LD short term but will fall into line for a GE if Corbyn looks a threat.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 20, 2019 10:40:47 GMT
Chestfield ward is Whitstable's posh southern suburbs.
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Post by lbarnes on Sept 20, 2019 10:45:03 GMT
When was the last by-election where the Labour vote share didn't fall? A list of swings in each byelection between Labour and Conservative since Boris became PM almost consistently shows a swing to the Conservatives. I've only seen one in August where Labour had a swing from Conservative, other than where they didn't stand the previous time. I suppose the fact that the Tory vote isn't falling as much as Labour's since Johnson became PM is a small comfort for some. |
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Sept 20, 2019 10:52:33 GMT
Chestfield ward is Whitstable's posh southern suburbs. No. Not in any way posh. It is show off arriviste country. Old Whitstable has posh bits and is going up-market all the time. Posh is in heartland Kent like the Darenth valley, upper Medway (Tonbridge-Edenbridge) and the Tenterden-Benenden-Goudhurst axis! Chestfield is showy and brash like best end Doncaster and Sheffield and a lot of Cheshire. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 20, 2019 10:58:18 GMT
The last unambiguous Labour increase in a council by-election was in Irthlingborough back in August.
It may be just a coincidence that this was also the most recent straight Tory v Labour contest.
Or perhaps not?
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