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Post by mattb on Aug 1, 2019 23:31:08 GMT
The % changes do not tally. No UKIP candidate this time. Yes - so the others should sum to +8 |
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Post by tonygreaves on Aug 1, 2019 23:33:45 GMT
LD -2.0
CON +9.6
LAB -0.2
GRN +0.2
[UKIP -7.7]
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Post by andrew111 on Aug 1, 2019 23:35:26 GMT
Changes since 2019:
LD - 1.9
Con +9.6
Lab - 0.2
Green +0.2
Yes, corrected, hit the wrong number on the phone calculator
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Post by lbarnes on Aug 1, 2019 23:35:48 GMT
LD -2.0 CON +9.6 LAB -0.2 GRN +0.2 [UKIP -7.7] I get the same. |
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Post by independentukip on Aug 1, 2019 23:39:48 GMT
Previous results recorded on LEAP:
2019
Hazel Grove [LD gain from C]
Louise Ankers LD 1993 47.7%
Julian Lewis-Booth C 1225 29.3%
Julie Wharton Lab 457 10.9%
Eunice Normansell UKIP 321 7.7%
Clare Brown Grn 183 4.4%
2018
Hazel Grove [LD gain from C]
Paul Ankers LD 1965 44.1%
Oliver Johnstone C 1810 40.6%
Julie Wharton Lab 553 12.4%
Ken Pease Grn 132 3.0%
2016
Hazel Grove
Jon Twigge LD 1777 39.0%
Sue Carroll C 1494 32.8%
Julie Wharton Lab 634 13.9%
Tara O'Brien UKIP 534 11.7%
Ken Pease Grn 120 2.6%
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Post by tonygreaves on Aug 1, 2019 23:43:26 GMT
So UKIP gone Con (surprise surprise) plus the Cons putting in a bigger effort than in May. Ward stays solid LD.
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Post by arnieg on Aug 1, 2019 23:56:30 GMT
A fixture I have also seen. One of only a handful of pre-war greyhound stadiums still staging speedway (I think Newcastle, Wolverhampton and Birmingham are the only others) Edinburgh Speedway ride at Armadale Stadium which started as a dog track in 1939. Based on my most recent visit (2018) it still has the original fixtures and fittings |
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Post by mattb on Aug 2, 2019 1:54:23 GMT
As no-one else seems to have posted this:
Godmanchester & Hemingford Abbots (Huntingdonshire DC)
LibDem 929 (48.2%)
Con 666 (34.5%)
Independent 333 (17.3%)
Lib Dem Hold
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Post by andrewp on Aug 2, 2019 6:05:32 GMT
As no-one else seems to have posted this: Godmanchester & Hemingford Abbots (Huntingdonshire DC) LibDem 929 (48.2%) Con 666 (34.5%) Independent 333 (17.3%) Lib Dem Hold Changes from last time Lib Dem -3.7% Con + 0.6% Ind n/a |
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Post by andrewp on Aug 2, 2019 6:19:08 GMT
Some interesting Lib Dem/ Conservative results this week. The Conservatives doing a bit better than in recent weeks. Boris bounce or just the way the elections have fallen?
A decent swing to the Conservatives in Hazel Grove- doesn’t strike me as the sort of the place the Conservatives would do well at the moment but their candidate was an ex councillor for the ward and lived locally. The Lib Dem lived a little way away
A slight swing to the Conservatives in Huntingdonshire.
And then of course a decent Lib Dem gain in Brecon and Radnorshire. Not a mammoth swing by by election standards. An interesting test of what happens when the MP subject to a recall position stands again. I think Chris Davies has more of the back story that fits the constituency than Jane Dodds and minimised his defeat. Bar the expenses issue he might have been difficult for the Lib Dem’s to shift here, and it will be interesting if he stands again at the GE- which could of course be very soon. A possibility that Jane Dodds might only sit in parliament for a few weeks. I think that it proves that an MP in a very safe seat with an expenses issue and subject to a recall position would win a by election.
Would a Brexit Alliance have won the seat- quite possibly.
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Post by andrewteale on Aug 2, 2019 7:12:12 GMT
I was so astonished when I read this bit, that my head literally fell off and my elbow is literally exploded: The truth, of course, is that absolutely everybody in the entire universe, except for an extremely tiny minority of deranged and insane people, fully recognise, and know how to pronounce, the town of Ystradgynlais, specifically because they clearly remember the media and the news reports referring to it constantly, regularly, and frequently during the coverage of the by-election in 1985. Sorry to hear of your experience and I hope that your head reattaches itself and your elbow reimplodes in the fullness of time. However, I can't accept responsibility for any loss or injury incurred as a result of Andrew's Previews. |
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Post by andrew111 on Aug 2, 2019 7:12:13 GMT
Some interesting Lib Dem/ Conservative results this week. The Conservatives doing a bit better than in recent weeks. Boris bounce or just the way the elections have fallen? A decent swing to the Conservatives in Hazel Grove- doesn’t strike me as the sort of the place the Conservatives would do well at the moment but their candidate was an ex councillor for the ward and lived locally. The Lib Dem lived a little way away A slight swing to the Conservatives in Huntingdonshire. And then of course a decent Lib Dem gain in Brecon and Radnorshire. Not a mammoth swing by by election standards. An interesting test of what happens when the MP subject to a recall position stands again. I think Chris Davies has more of the back story that fits the constituency than Jane Dodds and minimised his defeat. Bar the expenses issue he might have been difficult for the Lib Dem’s to shift here, and it will be interesting if he stands again at the GE- which could of course be very soon. A possibility that Jane Dodds might only sit in parliament for a few weeks. I think that it proves that an MP in a very safe seat with an expenses issue and subject to a recall position would win a by election. Would a Brexit Alliance have won the seat- quite possibly. Hazel Grove being a target constituency there will have been a good deal more in the 2019 local election than average, I suspect. There was a seat to gain. Hence not so much contrast as usual between local election day and a by-election. The other thing is that some of the extra people that would have turned up in this local by-election will have been in Wales |
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Post by finsobruce on Aug 2, 2019 9:20:26 GMT
As no-one else seems to have posted this: Godmanchester & Hemingford Abbots (Huntingdonshire DC) LibDem 929 (48.2%) Con 666 (34.5%) Independent 333 (17.3%) Lib Dem Hold Changes from last time Lib Dem -3.7% Con + 0.6% Ind n/a Would have been fun if the Lib Dems had got 999. |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,746
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Post by Chris from Brum on Aug 2, 2019 9:30:24 GMT
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Post by middleenglander on Aug 2, 2019 9:33:21 GMT
I have my computer back but much catching up to do. Huntingdonshire, Godmanchester & Hemingford Abotts - Liberal Democrat hold | Party | 2019 votes | 2019 share | since 2018 "top" | since 2019 "average" | | Liberal Democrat | 929 | 48.2% | -3.7% | -3.5% | Conservative | 666 | 34.5% | +0.7% | +2.9% | Independent | 333 | 17.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Labour |
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| -14.2% | -16.6% | Total votes | 1,928 |
| 72% | 84% |
Swing Liberal Democrat to Conservative 2¼% / 3¼% since 2018 Council now 30 Conservative, 10 Independent Group, 7 Liberal Democrat, 4 Labour, 1 Independent Stockport, Hazel Grove - Liberal Democrat hold | Party | 2019 B votes | 2019 B share | since 2019 | since 2018 | since 2016 | since 2015 | | Liberal Democrat | 1,401 | 45.7% | -2.0% | +1.6% | +6.7% | +17.5% | Conservative | 1,194 | 38.9% | +9.6% | -1.6% | +6.2% | +0.3% | Labour | 329 | 10.7% | -0.2% | -1.7% | -3.2% | -5.1% | Green | 142 | 4.6% | +0.3% | +1.7% | +2.0% | +0.9% | UKIP |
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| -7.7% |
| -11.7% | -13.5% | Total votes | 3,066 |
| 73% | 69% | 67% | 40% |
Swing Liberal Democrat to Conservative ~ 5¾% since May, but Conservative to Liberal Democrat ~ 1½% since 2018, ¼% since 2016 and 8½% since 2015 Council now 26 Labour, 26 Liberal Democrat, 8 Conservative, 3 Independent Ratepayers |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,952
Member is Online
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 2, 2019 9:38:54 GMT
The horrible weather conditions in Hazel Grove may have helped the Tories, who are probably still better able to get their vote out in such situations?
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Aug 2, 2019 10:50:41 GMT
The horrible weather conditions in Hazel Grove may have helped the Tories, who are probably still better able to get their vote out in such situations? I think that's a bit of a stretch. The roads were (and some still are) impassable. The Tories would need a serious Get Out The Float operation! |
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Crimson King
Lib Dem
Be nice to each other and sing in tune
Posts: 9,846 
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Post by Crimson King on Aug 2, 2019 11:01:39 GMT
"It's a two boat race"
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,952
Member is Online
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 2, 2019 11:01:39 GMT
It was a decent turnout considering the circumstances, that's for sure.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Aug 2, 2019 11:18:00 GMT
It was a decent turnout considering the circumstances, that's for sure. Indeed. Ultimately it's an affluent, well-educated ward, so exactly the kind of place where people will vote come hell or, literally in this case, high water. |
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