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Post by lbarnes on Jul 12, 2019 13:52:03 GMT
You and Merseymike have so much else in common. Clever, intelligent, lucid, clear-thinking, independent-minded and full of charm? You probably couldn't muster those between you never mind each. ;-) |
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Post by Merseymike on Jul 12, 2019 13:55:14 GMT
Yes, there's nothing there I would disagree with. Of course, a stronger LD party doesn't necessarily harm us. as the vast bulk of the seats that the LD's are likely to win with any sort of revival will mostly come from the Tories. And if we have returned to the pre-coalition days, it also means the return of some degree of tactical voting The wild card will, of course, be the Brexit Party. Nobody has a clue how well they'll do in a Westminster GE, and the tactics for fighting one with up to 650 individual FPTP seats are hugely different from fighting an EU Parliament election with D'Hondt list PR. They could take votes from everybody else, though I think fewer from us and the Greens than from other parties. UKIP and the other Remain microparties will have little or no effect. That assumes we have a general election before Brexit, that there is going to be a a Brexit, or that there will be a Brexit Party or similar. None of which are certain! |
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Post by yellowperil on Jul 12, 2019 14:16:59 GMT
Seeing you raise my personal bit of historicism in support of your argument, I suppose I had better respond. If the message you take from the Ashford story is that local campaign efforts can get you so far, but nothing is for ever, fair enough, I wouldn't disagree. If you are extending that to suggest that every local campaign, however successful in the short term, is ultimately of no significance and doomed to failure, then I think you are hopelessly overstating your case. Local by elections taken singly are primarily about local circumstances, but patterns do emerge. In the last few months we have had Lib Dem wins beyond all expectations in a great variety of locations e.g. Merton, Trowbridge and Bridlington in the last 3 weeks. Both major parties have suffered catastrophically poor performances over the same time, and other parties like Plaid and Yorkshire Party have made great strides forward in their own localities. And most significantly these patterns locally back up what the opinion polls are telling us, nationally, particularly about trends rather than overall numbers, but the latter have never been more fluid. "After the next GE" could conceivably come very soon and if I'm still around I will be delighted to talk to you then. Yes. I do so contend. We have forces continually playing in our direction and you have to work for every point. When you stop working you fade fast. Read nothing at all into the past year, never mind 3-months. This is near entirely Brexit and BP influenced effects. And each of the majors has an unusual level of internal disruption caused by malcontents that the like of Merseymike and I are at pains to stamp out and put right, after which we shall pick away at your carcass again. I think you take the wrong lessons from history. The last rise of the Lib Dems from practically nothing to reasonable significance under Ashdown and Kennedy primarily was based upon local campaigning and got so far (20+% vote share, 50-60 ish parliamentary seats, etc) but no further because in the last resort the structure of the Big 2 was still in place, even if a bit weak round the edges. This time the potential is there to rise much further, and those "Brexit influenced effects" are not going to suddenly go away, indeed if we do actually get to the point of a no deal exit you have barely seen the beginning of it. There could be an upset in electoral arithmetic unparalleled in British political history, and who will be picking over carcasses at the end of that is anybody's guess. It could be the Carlton-Merseymike axis that is consigned to the rubbish pits. |
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Post by Merseymike on Jul 12, 2019 14:27:57 GMT
" Go back to your constituencies - and prepare for government!" David Steel 1981
Well, it happened 29 years later, and the outcome was such that its not likely to be given a second run at least in that guise.
That is going to make a difference, even if the Coalition effect is no more....
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carlton43
Reform Party
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Post by carlton43 on Jul 12, 2019 14:32:49 GMT
Yes. I do so contend. We have forces continually playing in our direction and you have to work for every point. When you stop working you fade fast. Read nothing at all into the past year, never mind 3-months. This is near entirely Brexit and BP influenced effects. And each of the majors has an unusual level of internal disruption caused by malcontents that the like of Merseymike and I are at pains to stamp out and put right, after which we shall pick away at your carcass again. I think you take the wrong lessons from history. The last rise of the Lib Dems from practically nothing to reasonable significance under Ashdown and Kennedy primarily was based upon local campaigning and got so far (20+% vote share, 50-60 ish parliamentary seats, etc) but no further because in the last resort the structure of the Big 2 was still in place, even if a bit weak round the edges. This time the potential is there to rise much further, and those "Brexit influenced effects" are not going to suddenly go away, indeed if we do actually get to the point of a no deal exit you have barely seen the beginning of it. There could be an upset in electoral arithmetic unparalleled in British political history, and who will be picking over carcasses at the end of that is anybody's guess. It could be the Carlton-Merseymike axis that is consigned to the rubbish pits. I rarely take the wrong lessons from history whereas the LDs have made it into an art form. I have no illusions about my own party and the weakness of its structure and the collapse of its integrity, but it forms an important and necessary constituent part of politics in being on and of the right and thus necessary to a significant minority and with not much competition that is serious and with actual practical policies. You have to convince the non-Conservatives that you are a better long term serious choice than Labour with a raft of policies and aspiration that speak to hearts as well as minds. You have that chance if Labour actually implode or fracture. But they have idealism loyalty and brand loyalty that still has potent force in the manner that it did when it supplanted you. The LDs are always too invested in localist trivia and one or two single issues like PR and support for the EU. You always lack a broad policy appeal that is easy to accept and clearly different from Labour. And you fence sit on far too many issues for a party hoping for power. |
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Post by greenchristian on Jul 12, 2019 14:33:10 GMT
And if we have returned to the pre-coalition days, it also means the return of some degree of tactical voting Although tactical voting this time is largely around the issue of Brexit, and Labour still haven't picked a side. For your party to pick up tactical votes from Lib Dem and Green voters you may need personal pledges from your MPs to vote against the party line in the event of a Labour government. Yes, you're less enthusiastic about Brexit than the Tories, but you're still not in the remain camp. And the same applies even more so if you're trying to pick up pro-Brexit tactical votes. |
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Post by Merseymike on Jul 12, 2019 14:37:58 GMT
And if we have returned to the pre-coalition days, it also means the return of some degree of tactical voting Although tactical voting this time is largely around the issue of Brexit, and Labour still haven't picked a side. For your party to pick up tactical votes from Lib Dem and Green voters you may need personal pledges from your MPs to vote against the party line in the event of a Labour government. Yes, you're less enthusiastic about Brexit than the Tories, but you're still not in the remain camp. And the same applies even more so if you're trying to pick up pro-Brexit tactical votes. Again, you are assuming that Brexit will be the only issue in the light of an election, that we have the election before Brexit, and that you know what our policy will be - and quite reasonably in my view (as someone who isn't ideologically committed either to leaving or remaining) we will decide that dependent on what the situation is at the election. If we have already left without a deal, it will be a very different scenario from facing the electorate with a further extension and the Tories still arguing as to whether they want no deal or not. I'll be voting Labour irrespective of our eventual Brexit policy, because I don't define myself by whether I'm 'leave' or 'remain', and I think the idea that this is what everyone is now going to do is not accurate |
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Post by greenchristian on Jul 12, 2019 15:07:10 GMT
Although tactical voting this time is largely around the issue of Brexit, and Labour still haven't picked a side. For your party to pick up tactical votes from Lib Dem and Green voters you may need personal pledges from your MPs to vote against the party line in the event of a Labour government. Yes, you're less enthusiastic about Brexit than the Tories, but you're still not in the remain camp. And the same applies even more so if you're trying to pick up pro-Brexit tactical votes. Again, you are assuming that Brexit will be the only issue in the light of an election, that we have the election before Brexit, and that you know what our policy will be - and quite reasonably in my view (as someone who isn't ideologically committed either to leaving or remaining) we will decide that dependent on what the situation is at the election. If we have already left without a deal, it will be a very different scenario from facing the electorate with a further extension and the Tories still arguing as to whether they want no deal or not. I'll be voting Labour irrespective of our eventual Brexit policy, because I don't define myself by whether I'm 'leave' or 'remain', and I think the idea that this is what everyone is now going to do is not accurate I'm not assuming that it will be the only issue. However, it has replaced left/right as the clear political dividing line in English and Welsh politics in the same way that Yes/No has done in Scottish politics. Not every voter will fall clearly into one of the main camps, but it does seem to be the dominant political identifier. Whilst that could change with time and events it's difficult to think of any realistic scenario where the divide vanishes over the next decade. Furthermore, there are very few plausible scenarios where some other issue becomes big enough to overshadow it before 2022 (the most plausible being a massive natural disaster in the UK which is widely blamed on climate change).
In any scenario where Brexit remains the main dividing line in UK politics, Labour (or its individual candidates) need to be clearly on one side or the other in order to pick up substantial numbers of tactical votes. And, right now, they are nowhere near that point. That is all I was saying.
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Post by Merseymike on Jul 12, 2019 15:08:46 GMT
Again, you are assuming that Brexit will be the only issue in the light of an election, that we have the election before Brexit, and that you know what our policy will be - and quite reasonably in my view (as someone who isn't ideologically committed either to leaving or remaining) we will decide that dependent on what the situation is at the election. If we have already left without a deal, it will be a very different scenario from facing the electorate with a further extension and the Tories still arguing as to whether they want no deal or not. I'll be voting Labour irrespective of our eventual Brexit policy, because I don't define myself by whether I'm 'leave' or 'remain', and I think the idea that this is what everyone is now going to do is not accurate I'm not assuming that it will be the only issue. However, it has replaced left/right as the clear political dividing line in English and Welsh politics in the same way that Yes/No has done in Scottish politics. Not every voter will fall clearly into one of the main camps, but it does seem to be the dominant political identifier. Whilst that could change with time and events it's difficult to think of any realistic scenario where the divide vanishes over the next decade. Furthermore, there are very few plausible scenarios where some other issue becomes big enough to overshadow it before 2022 (the most plausible being a massive natural disaster in the UK which is widely blamed on climate change). In any scenario where Brexit remains the main dividing line in UK politics, Labour (or its individual candidates) need to be clearly on one side or the other in order to pick up substantial numbers of tactical votes. And, right now, they are nowhere near that point. That is all I was saying.
Simply not convinced. |
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Post by tonygreaves on Jul 12, 2019 16:55:12 GMT
Well well. I fell off my chair when I heard of the Bridlington result. Brid?!!! It is of course a place with a history of unusual results - did it not have some relict SDP Councillors quite recently - perhaps on the Town Council? But of course all we have learned here in this discussion is that hard-line Liberal haters on both the left and right just get very annoyed when there is a surprise LD victory and take it out by personally attacking the nearest LD they can find. Sad people.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 12, 2019 17:10:25 GMT
Well well. I fell off my chair when I heard of the Bridlington result. Brid?!!! It is of course a place with a history of unusual results - did it not have some relict SDP Councillors quite recently - perhaps on the Town Council? But of course all we have learned here in this discussion is that hard-line Liberal haters on both the left and right just get very annoyed when there is a surprise LD victory and take it out by personally attacking the nearest LD they can find. Sad people. Pathetic response. What happened was some twattish LibDems decided to chance their luck and make an unjustifiable claim that Labour ought to have been challenging for the win, based on an analysis that was beyond superficial and into the realm of being totally brainless. When this was pointed out they obviously couldn’t justify it. |
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Post by AdminSTB on Jul 12, 2019 17:23:27 GMT
I am surprised and disappointed at a personal level with the Lib Dem win in Bridlington North, as I used to live in the ward. Didn't see it coming. As an aside, the name Mike Heslop-Mullens is very familiar as I went to school with his daughter.
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jul 12, 2019 17:53:10 GMT
Well well. I fell off my chair when I heard of the Bridlington result. Brid?!!! It is of course a place with a history of unusual results - did it not have some relict SDP Councillors quite recently - perhaps on the Town Council? But of course all we have learned here in this discussion is that hard-line Liberal haters on both the left and right just get very annoyed when there is a surprise LD victory and take it out by personally attacking the nearest LD they can find. Sad people. Well, one person on this occasion. Who seems to be chanelling Ted from the films of that name at the moment ... |
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Post by AdminSTB on Jul 12, 2019 18:23:34 GMT
On the basis that Labour have stood every time, came second in 2011 and 2019, and were only beaten into third in 2015 when UKIP were on a s(pl)urge with Farage still at the helm. Whereas we've been absent since 2007 so have no recent track record of any kind, the Yorkshire Party are new on the scene, and UKIP are supposed to be on the way to extinction. Oh that's piss easy to unload. 1) The mere fact of a Labour candidate standing does not mean there was a Labour campaign. Bridlington North wasn't a winnable ward and they were just paper candidates - each time. 2) You omit to mention the number of Labour candidates: only in 2011 has Labour put up a full ticket. In 2011 and 2019 there was only one. When there are only four candidates and electors have three votes, a lot of voters cross-vote just to show they aren't owned by the big party. 3) In 2015 a UKIP candidate came from nowhere to win a seat. UKIP outpolled Labour in Bridlington North, whereas across the East Yorkshire constituency Labour outpolled UKIP. Clearly Bridlington North was far from the Labour stronghold. 4) UKIP's strongest wards are coastal towns on the East coast. That's the sort of ward where Labour has struggled. 5) The Yorkshire Party came from nowhere to win seats in Bridlington South in May. They didn't stand in the demographically similar Bridlington North. In a byelection they could use the same approach to win votes and it is likely to succeed. 6) Bridlington is a retirement area. If there's one section of the electorate where Labour has struggled particularly since 2010 it's with people over 65. Now fuck off and learn some psephology you annoying Lib Dem. You were doing well until that last sentence. I don't think Chris was suggesting Labour should have been challenging to win, but be the leading challenger - that is, coming second rather than fifth. You're a valued and knowledgeable member of this forum, but there really is no need to be abusive if you think someone is wrong or misguided - finsobruce has already taken you to task for this in recent weeks. I'm reluctant to go down the sanctions route as I happen to think you're an asset to the forum and the political blogosphere as a whole - but please make your points without the insults going forward. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 12, 2019 18:28:08 GMT
I have enough Scots blood that 'Nemo me impune lacessit' is never entirely absent from me. And Lib Dems with brainless posts provoke me. They should learn to think before they post.
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Post by andrew111 on Jul 12, 2019 18:28:18 GMT
We are living in interesting times, politically.
Anyone complacent about the fortunes of the two Parties that have dominated Parliament for 100 yesrs should look at what happened to the French Socialists in one electoral cycle. 40% to 9% as I recall.. Or look at the transformation of Scottish politics over the last decade. Not much inertia there...
Very few people are actually very ideological. They vote out of habit, loyalty, or dislike of the alternative. Or they vote on a single issue they care about, like Brexit.
Who would have predicted in July 2017 thst the big two would come third and fifth in a national election less than 2 years later (well, i accept few would have predicted that election would take place at all!)?
As said above BXP are the big unknown. I have a feeling Farage has ambitions well beyond Brexit. He is by far the most charismatic politician on the scene at the moment. Anything could happen... The voters are in a febrile mood
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Post by andrew111 on Jul 12, 2019 18:30:16 GMT
I have enough Scots blood that 'Nemo me impune lacessit' is never entirely absent from me. And Lib Dems with brainless posts provoke me. They should learn to think before they post. Shall we take that as an apology David? (Trumpian version thereof!) |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 12, 2019 18:31:21 GMT
I cannot control how you interpret, or misinterpret, my posts.
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Post by finsobruce on Jul 12, 2019 18:34:59 GMT
I cannot control how you interpret, or misinterpret, my posts. Can we not come to some sort of Bridlington agreement? 
I'll get my Tote card.
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Post by lbarnes on Jul 12, 2019 18:47:11 GMT
Oh that's piss easy to unload. 1) The mere fact of a Labour candidate standing does not mean there was a Labour campaign. Bridlington North wasn't a winnable ward and they were just paper candidates - each time. 2) You omit to mention the number of Labour candidates: only in 2011 has Labour put up a full ticket. In 2011 and 2019 there was only one. When there are only four candidates and electors have three votes, a lot of voters cross-vote just to show they aren't owned by the big party. 3) In 2015 a UKIP candidate came from nowhere to win a seat. UKIP outpolled Labour in Bridlington North, whereas across the East Yorkshire constituency Labour outpolled UKIP. Clearly Bridlington North was far from the Labour stronghold. 4) UKIP's strongest wards are coastal towns on the East coast. That's the sort of ward where Labour has struggled. 5) The Yorkshire Party came from nowhere to win seats in Bridlington South in May. They didn't stand in the demographically similar Bridlington North. In a byelection they could use the same approach to win votes and it is likely to succeed. 6) Bridlington is a retirement area. If there's one section of the electorate where Labour has struggled particularly since 2010 it's with people over 65. Now fuck off and learn some psephology you annoying Lib Dem. You were doing well until that last sentence. I don't think Chris was suggesting Labour should have been challenging to win, but be the leading challenger - that is, coming second rather than fifth. You're a valued and knowledgeable member of this forum, but there really is no need to be abusive if you think someone is wrong or misguided - finsobruce has already taken you to task for this in recent weeks. I'm reluctant to go down the sanctions route as I happen to think you're an asset to the forum and the political blogosphere as a whole - but please make your points without the insults going forward. He wasn't doing very well at all and the last sentence just made it worse. In a desperate effort to show why it was't a terrible result for Labour to lost 6/7ths of its share of the vote and finish on just 4%, he went off on some sidetrack of hastily cobbled together factoids and stats. Some of these turn out to be contradictory, others to show up even further how badly they are performing among demographics where they should be doing better, and many where the obstacles are stacked even higher for the Lib Dems. And then he becomes his normal abusive self when taken to task. |
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