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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 12, 2019 11:34:19 GMT
And if your list is a proper assessment of the reasons you would have lost your deposit had there been one then you need to explain why the Labour vote isn't soaring where those factors don't apply. If you haven't spotted my criticisms of the current direction of the Labour Party then you haven't been looking very far. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jul 12, 2019 11:42:11 GMT
I was mouthing exactly the same phrase!  |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jul 12, 2019 11:46:24 GMT
And if your list is a proper assessment of the reasons you would have lost your deposit had there been one then you need to explain why the Labour vote isn't soaring where those factors don't apply. If you haven't spotted my criticisms of the current direction of the Labour Party then you haven't been looking very far. I am quite happy to recognise that you find yourself out of tune with the Great Beard and those that surround him. |
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carlton43
Reform Party
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Post by carlton43 on Jul 12, 2019 11:47:19 GMT
Hey peeps, popes and proles! This was just a couple of 'doesn't matter at all' local authority by-elections with way over half the electorate totally ignoring them, as usual. As the public see it these hardly matter at all and are hardly a reflection of anything. East Yorkshire and Herefordshire are largely Conservative leaning with historic and actual Liberal leanings as well. Most of the time we hold most of the seats at both levels. But mid-term unpopularity, coupled with Brexit difficulties, intrusion by UKIP and then BP, the May administration serial foul up and serious party in-fighting over the leadership have all coalesced to cause us major damage over the medium short term. These are only ever Labour leaning in pockets and/or exceptional years like 1997. We have tiredness and complacency in both Conservative councils that led to poor admin and poor candidates, seat losses and rise of independents and special interest localist parties and loss of control. This is not new and our other imposed difficulties make it a surprise to me that we are holding many seats at all just at present? The party is in fact far more resilient than one might expect? But stop reading these petty results as if they were important runes for future prediction. All is so very fluid and tribal bonds are fraying but there is no sign that the big two will not continue to be the big two. There is comfort, familiarity, tradition and inertia supporting us. Yes! In the odd set of by-elections a small minority of committed people can make a difference if well led and with good organization behind a decent local candidate. Short term. But look at the yellowperil Ashford Chronicles 'and despair' oh ye mighty LDs! Give us time to re-group and work at it and if you stop your own manic activity, it all slides away like morning mist on the North Downs! These results must encourage the LDs but they portend nothing at all. Zero. Zilch. Talk to me again after the next GE. |
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Post by lbarnes on Jul 12, 2019 11:50:15 GMT
And if your list is a proper assessment of the reasons you would have lost your deposit had there been one then you need to explain why the Labour vote isn't soaring where those factors don't apply. If you haven't spotted my criticisms of the current direction of the Labour Party then you haven't been looking very far. Almost all of the points you make apply to the Lib Dems in equal measure, if not more so. And yet .......... |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jul 12, 2019 11:58:11 GMT
I was too busy learning psephology to do post formatting 1.01. To cut it short for you and to type as slow as I can so that you'll get it. If your list is all the reasons for Labour doing so dreadfully in a by-election then ... (rest of this crap deleted) My list is an analysis of Labour's vote in this byelection in Bridlington North. No-one says Labour should have been challenging in a safe Tory seat. That's precisely what Chris from Brum was implying. No he wasn't. He said on the face of it Labour should have been the leading challenger. Southern England is littered with safe Tory seats where Labour is nowhere and the LDs have generally been second and ergo "leading challenger" without ever having a prayer of winning. E.g. no-one in the LDs thought we should be challenging to win Cotswolds in the last GE but we would have expected to be second, and getting beaten into 3rd by Labour was a poor result for us. Results like this suggest that in the next GE we will be the leading challenger in Cotswold but whether it becomes a serious target is a different matter. |
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Post by matureleft on Jul 12, 2019 11:59:08 GMT
Gosh I wish that some of my successes (not personally but engineered by me) in local by-elections had attracted quite so much interest... I've made my own remarks further up this lengthy thread on how by-elections like this can work.
It's not a great time to be either a Tory or Labour local by-election candidate in most parts of the country but let's not diminish what must have been a very good LOCAL campaign!
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jul 12, 2019 12:01:21 GMT
Hey peeps, popes and proles! This was just a couple of 'doesn't matter at all' local authority by-elections with way over half the electorate totally ignoring them, as usual. As the public see it these hardly matter at all and are hardly a reflection of anything. East Yorkshire and Herefordshire are largely Conservative leaning with historic and actual Liberal leanings as well. Most of the time we hold most of the seats at both levels. But mid-term unpopularity, coupled with Brexit difficulties, intrusion by UKIP and then BP, the May administration serial foul up and serious party in-fighting over the leadership have all coalesced to cause us major damage over the medium short term. These are only ever Labour leaning in pockets and/or exceptional years like 1997. We have tiredness and complacency in both Conservative councils that led to poor admin and poor candidates, seat losses and rise of independents and special interest localist parties and loss of control. This is not new and our other imposed difficulties make it a surprise to me that we are holding many seats at all just at present? The party is in fact far more resilient than one might expect? But stop reading these petty results as if they were important runes for future prediction. All is so very fluid and tribal bonds are fraying but there is no sign that the big two will not continue to be the big two. There is comfort, familiarity, tradition and inertia supporting us. Yes! In the odd set of by-elections a small minority of committed people can make a difference if well led and with good organization behind a decent local candidate. Short term. But look at the yellowperil Ashford Chronicles 'and despair' oh ye mighty LDs! Give us time to re-group and work at it and if you stop your own manic activity, it all slides away like morning mist on the North Downs! These results must encourage the LDs but they portend nothing at all. Zero. Zilch. Talk to me again after the next GE. Spoilsport. Just as when your team is top of the League after 3 games, one needs to enjoy these little moments while one can. I do like the idea of Boris addressing the next party conference with on a big board behind him. |
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carlton43
Reform Party
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Post by carlton43 on Jul 12, 2019 12:09:30 GMT
Hey peeps, popes and proles! This was just a couple of 'doesn't matter at all' local authority by-elections with way over half the electorate totally ignoring them, as usual. As the public see it these hardly matter at all and are hardly a reflection of anything. East Yorkshire and Herefordshire are largely Conservative leaning with historic and actual Liberal leanings as well. Most of the time we hold most of the seats at both levels. But mid-term unpopularity, coupled with Brexit difficulties, intrusion by UKIP and then BP, the May administration serial foul up and serious party in-fighting over the leadership have all coalesced to cause us major damage over the medium short term. These are only ever Labour leaning in pockets and/or exceptional years like 1997. We have tiredness and complacency in both Conservative councils that led to poor admin and poor candidates, seat losses and rise of independents and special interest localist parties and loss of control. This is not new and our other imposed difficulties make it a surprise to me that we are holding many seats at all just at present? The party is in fact far more resilient than one might expect? But stop reading these petty results as if they were important runes for future prediction. All is so very fluid and tribal bonds are fraying but there is no sign that the big two will not continue to be the big two. There is comfort, familiarity, tradition and inertia supporting us. Yes! In the odd set of by-elections a small minority of committed people can make a difference if well led and with good organization behind a decent local candidate. Short term. But look at the yellowperil Ashford Chronicles 'and despair' oh ye mighty LDs! Give us time to re-group and work at it and if you stop your own manic activity, it all slides away like morning mist on the North Downs! These results must encourage the LDs but they portend nothing at all. Zero. Zilch. Talk to me again after the next GE. Spoilsport. Just as when your team is top of the League after 3 games, one needs to enjoy these little moments while one can. I do like the idea of Boris addressing the next party conference with on a big board behind him. You heard it here first! |
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Adrian
Co-operative Party
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Post by Adrian on Jul 12, 2019 12:32:50 GMT
David being silly (and rude) again. Yes, it's possible to make excuses for Labour, but if Labour were currently a more successful party you wouldn't be needing to make excuses. Any salesperson who let hundreds of customers slip through their fingers would just be sacked - businesses don't deal in low expectations.
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Jul 12, 2019 12:36:22 GMT
(rest of this crap deleted) My list is an analysis of Labour's vote in this byelection in Bridlington North. That's precisely what Chris from Brum was implying. No he wasn't. He said on the face of it Labour should have been the leading challenger. Southern England is littered with safe Tory seats where Labour is nowhere and the LDs have generally been second and ergo "leading challenger" without ever having a prayer of winning. E.g. no-one in the LDs thought we should be challenging to win Cotswolds in the last GE but we would have expected to be second, and getting beaten into 3rd by Labour was a poor result for us. Results like this suggest that in the next GE we will be the leading challenger in Cotswold but whether it becomes a serious target is a different matter. But the LibDems have always managed this locally....Obviously they could extend it to general elections but there's no saying they will |
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Post by yellowperil on Jul 12, 2019 13:00:46 GMT
Hey peeps, popes and proles! This was just a couple of 'doesn't matter at all' local authority by-elections with way over half the electorate totally ignoring them, as usual. As the public see it these hardly matter at all and are hardly a reflection of anything. East Yorkshire and Herefordshire are largely Conservative leaning with historic and actual Liberal leanings as well. Most of the time we hold most of the seats at both levels. But mid-term unpopularity, coupled with Brexit difficulties, intrusion by UKIP and then BP, the May administration serial foul up and serious party in-fighting over the leadership have all coalesced to cause us major damage over the medium short term. These are only ever Labour leaning in pockets and/or exceptional years like 1997. We have tiredness and complacency in both Conservative councils that led to poor admin and poor candidates, seat losses and rise of independents and special interest localist parties and loss of control. This is not new and our other imposed difficulties make it a surprise to me that we are holding many seats at all just at present? The party is in fact far more resilient than one might expect? But stop reading these petty results as if they were important runes for future prediction. All is so very fluid and tribal bonds are fraying but there is no sign that the big two will not continue to be the big two. There is comfort, familiarity, tradition and inertia supporting us. Yes! In the odd set of by-elections a small minority of committed people can make a difference if well led and with good organization behind a decent local candidate. Short term. But look at the yellowperil Ashford Chronicles 'and despair' oh ye mighty LDs! Give us time to re-group and work at it and if you stop your own manic activity, it all slides away like morning mist on the North Downs! These results must encourage the LDs but they portend nothing at all. Zero. Zilch. Talk to me again after the next GE. Seeing you raise my personal bit of historicism in support of your argument, I suppose I had better respond. If the message you take from the Ashford story is that local campaign efforts can get you so far, but nothing is for ever, fair enough, I wouldn't disagree. If you are extending that to suggest that every local campaign, however successful in the short term, is ultimately of no significance and doomed to failure, then I think you are hopelessly overstating your case. Local by elections taken singly are primarily about local circumstances, but patterns do emerge. In the last few months we have had Lib Dem wins beyond all expectations in a great variety of locations e.g. Merton, Trowbridge and Bridlington in the last 3 weeks. Both major parties have suffered catastrophically poor performances over the same time, and other parties like Plaid and Yorkshire Party have made great strides forward in their own localities. And most significantly these patterns locally back up what the opinion polls are telling us, nationally, particularly about trends rather than overall numbers, but the latter have never been more fluid. "After the next GE" could conceivably come very soon and if I'm still around I will be delighted to talk to you then. |
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Jul 12, 2019 13:13:09 GMT
Hey peeps, popes and proles! This was just a couple of 'doesn't matter at all' local authority by-elections with way over half the electorate totally ignoring them, as usual. As the public see it these hardly matter at all and are hardly a reflection of anything. East Yorkshire and Herefordshire are largely Conservative leaning with historic and actual Liberal leanings as well. Most of the time we hold most of the seats at both levels. But mid-term unpopularity, coupled with Brexit difficulties, intrusion by UKIP and then BP, the May administration serial foul up and serious party in-fighting over the leadership have all coalesced to cause us major damage over the medium short term. These are only ever Labour leaning in pockets and/or exceptional years like 1997. We have tiredness and complacency in both Conservative councils that led to poor admin and poor candidates, seat losses and rise of independents and special interest localist parties and loss of control. This is not new and our other imposed difficulties make it a surprise to me that we are holding many seats at all just at present? The party is in fact far more resilient than one might expect? But stop reading these petty results as if they were important runes for future prediction. All is so very fluid and tribal bonds are fraying but there is no sign that the big two will not continue to be the big two. There is comfort, familiarity, tradition and inertia supporting us. Yes! In the odd set of by-elections a small minority of committed people can make a difference if well led and with good organization behind a decent local candidate. Short term. But look at the yellowperil Ashford Chronicles 'and despair' oh ye mighty LDs! Give us time to re-group and work at it and if you stop your own manic activity, it all slides away like morning mist on the North Downs! These results must encourage the LDs but they portend nothing at all. Zero. Zilch. Talk to me again after the next GE. Seeing you raise my personal bit of historicism in support of your argument, I suppose I had better respond. If the message you take from the Ashford story is that local campaign efforts can get you so far, but nothing is for ever, fair enough, I wouldn't disagree. If you are extending that to suggest that every local campaign, however successful in the short term, is ultimately of no significance and doomed to failure, then I think you are hopelessly overstating your case. Local by elections taken singly are primarily about local circumstances, but patterns do emerge. In the last few months we have had Lib Dem wins beyond all expectations in a great variety of locations e.g. Merton, Trowbridge and Bridlington in the last 3 weeks. Both major parties have suffered catastrophically poor performances over the same time, and other parties like Plaid and Yorkshire Party have made great strides forward in their own localities. And most significantly these patterns locally back up what the opinion polls are telling us, nationally, particularly about trends rather than overall numbers, but the latter have never been more fluid. "After the next GE" could conceivably come very soon and if I'm still around I will be delighted to talk to you then. Yes. I do so contend. We have forces continually playing in our direction and you have to work for every point. When you stop working you fade fast. Read nothing at all into the past year, never mind 3-months. This is near entirely Brexit and BP influenced effects. And each of the majors has an unusual level of internal disruption caused by malcontents that the like of Merseymike and I are at pains to stamp out and put right, after which we shall pick away at your carcass again. |
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Post by lbarnes on Jul 12, 2019 13:24:38 GMT
Seeing you raise my personal bit of historicism in support of your argument, I suppose I had better respond. If the message you take from the Ashford story is that local campaign efforts can get you so far, but nothing is for ever, fair enough, I wouldn't disagree. If you are extending that to suggest that every local campaign, however successful in the short term, is ultimately of no significance and doomed to failure, then I think you are hopelessly overstating your case. Local by elections taken singly are primarily about local circumstances, but patterns do emerge. In the last few months we have had Lib Dem wins beyond all expectations in a great variety of locations e.g. Merton, Trowbridge and Bridlington in the last 3 weeks. Both major parties have suffered catastrophically poor performances over the same time, and other parties like Plaid and Yorkshire Party have made great strides forward in their own localities. And most significantly these patterns locally back up what the opinion polls are telling us, nationally, particularly about trends rather than overall numbers, but the latter have never been more fluid. "After the next GE" could conceivably come very soon and if I'm still around I will be delighted to talk to you then. Yes. I do so contend. We have forces continually playing in our direction and you have to work for every point. When you stop working you fade fast. Read nothing at all into the past year, never mind 3-months. This is near entirely Brexit and BP influenced effects. And each of the majors has an unusual level of internal disruption caused by malcontents that the like of Merseymike and I are at pains to stamp out and put right, after which we shall pick away at your carcass again. You and Merseymike have so much else in common. |
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Jul 12, 2019 13:27:16 GMT
Yes. I do so contend. We have forces continually playing in our direction and you have to work for every point. When you stop working you fade fast. Read nothing at all into the past year, never mind 3-months. This is near entirely Brexit and BP influenced effects. And each of the majors has an unusual level of internal disruption caused by malcontents that the like of Merseymike and I are at pains to stamp out and put right, after which we shall pick away at your carcass again. You and Merseymike have so much else in common. Clever, intelligent, lucid, clear-thinking, independent-minded and full of charm? |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,732
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jul 12, 2019 13:29:37 GMT
You and Merseymike have so much else in common. Clever, intelligent, lucid, clear-thinking, independent-minded and full of charm? Up to a point, Lord Copper. |
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Post by andrew111 on Jul 12, 2019 13:30:39 GMT
No he wasn't. He said on the face of it Labour should have been the leading challenger. Southern England is littered with safe Tory seats where Labour is nowhere and the LDs have generally been second and ergo "leading challenger" without ever having a prayer of winning. E.g. no-one in the LDs thought we should be challenging to win Cotswolds in the last GE but we would have expected to be second, and getting beaten into 3rd by Labour was a poor result for us. Results like this suggest that in the next GE we will be the leading challenger in Cotswold but whether it becomes a serious target is a different matter. But the LibDems have always managed this locally....Obviously they could extend it to general elections but there's no saying they will Mike, Between 2010 and 2017 the instances of the Lib Dems doing this were very restricted, and as i recall they generally did not make net gains in local by-elections (and huge losses in the May elections). Before 2010 it is true that the Lib Dems won many unlikely council seats. "where we work we win" was the motto. It was also true of Parliamentary by-elections. I think what we see here, in the polls, on May 2nd and on June 23rd is that the coalition effect is now pretty much over. We are back to pre-2010, when the Lib Dems could hoover up protest votes wherever they tried to, and then convert them into consistent support at local level. But of course it takes so much effort for the Lib Dems to succeed at National level in a General Election that gains at Westminster under FPTP will be well below quota, unless Labour and/or the Tories succeed in their current efforts to implode completely. I am prepared to bet there was very little mention of Brexit in this local by-election by the Lib Dems. But they were starting from a base of 15-20% in that ward in the Euro election, not the 5% or less in the 2017 general election. So the door was half-open already, not locked and needing a crow bar as it would have been in 2017 |
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Jul 12, 2019 13:34:09 GMT
But the LibDems have always managed this locally....Obviously they could extend it to general elections but there's no saying they will Mike, Between 2010 and 2017 the instances of the Lib Dems doing this were very restricted, and as i recall they generally did not make net gains in local by-elections (and huge losses in the May elections). Before 2010 it is true that the Lib Dems won many unlikely council seats. "where we work we win" was the motto. It was also true of Parliamentary by-elections. I think what we see here, in the polls, on May 2nd and on June 23rd is that the coalition effect is now pretty much over. We are back to pre-2010, when the Lib Dems could hoover up protest votes wherever they tried to, and then convert them into consistent support at local level. But of course it takes so much effort for the Lib Dems to succeed at National level in a General Election that gains at Westminster under FPTP will be well below quota, unless Labour and/or the Tories succeed in their current efforts to implode completely. I am prepared to bet there was very little mention of Brexit in this local by-election by the Lib Dems. But they were starting from a base of 15-20% in that ward in the Euro election, not the 5% or less in the 2017 general election. So the door was half-open already, not locked and needing a crow bar as it would have been in 2017 Yes, there's nothing there I would disagree with. Of course, a stronger LD party doesn't necessarily harm us. as the vast bulk of the seats that the LD's are likely to win with any sort of revival will mostly come from the Tories. And if we have returned to the pre-coalition days, it also means the return of some degree of tactical voting |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 12, 2019 13:51:03 GMT
On what substantial basis do you make that remark? Because "on the face of it" is doing a heck of a lot of work in that sentence. On the basis that Labour have stood every time, came second in 2011 and 2019, and were only beaten into third in 2015 when UKIP were on a s(pl)urge with Farage still at the helm. Translation: Labour came second when there were only two parties standing and were only pushed into third when three parties stood.. |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jul 12, 2019 13:51:33 GMT
Mike, Between 2010 and 2017 the instances of the Lib Dems doing this were very restricted, and as i recall they generally did not make net gains in local by-elections (and huge losses in the May elections). Before 2010 it is true that the Lib Dems won many unlikely council seats. "where we work we win" was the motto. It was also true of Parliamentary by-elections. I think what we see here, in the polls, on May 2nd and on June 23rd is that the coalition effect is now pretty much over. We are back to pre-2010, when the Lib Dems could hoover up protest votes wherever they tried to, and then convert them into consistent support at local level. But of course it takes so much effort for the Lib Dems to succeed at National level in a General Election that gains at Westminster under FPTP will be well below quota, unless Labour and/or the Tories succeed in their current efforts to implode completely. I am prepared to bet there was very little mention of Brexit in this local by-election by the Lib Dems. But they were starting from a base of 15-20% in that ward in the Euro election, not the 5% or less in the 2017 general election. So the door was half-open already, not locked and needing a crow bar as it would have been in 2017 Yes, there's nothing there I would disagree with. Of course, a stronger LD party doesn't necessarily harm us. as the vast bulk of the seats that the LD's are likely to win with any sort of revival will mostly come from the Tories. And if we have returned to the pre-coalition days, it also means the return of some degree of tactical voting The wild card will, of course, be the Brexit Party. Nobody has a clue how well they'll do in a Westminster GE, and the tactics for fighting one with up to 650 individual FPTP seats are hugely different from fighting an EU Parliament election with D'Hondt list PR. They could take votes from everybody else, though I think fewer from us and the Greens than from other parties. UKIP and the other Remain microparties will have little or no effect. |
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