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Post by middleenglander on Jul 4, 2019 23:49:58 GMT
No figures from Middlesbrough
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timmullen1
Labour
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 5, 2019 0:06:03 GMT
No figures from Middlesbrough |
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Post by middleenglander on Jul 5, 2019 5:37:08 GMT
Chorley, Ecclestone & Mawdesley -Conservative hold | Party | 2019 B votes | 2019 B share | since 2019 | since 2018 | since 2016 | since 2015 | | Conservative | 1,055 | 63.2% | +9.0% | +9.3% | +17.1% | +12.7% | Labour | 611 | 36.8% | +3.8% | +1.9% | -3.0% | -0.7% | UKIP |
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| -12.7% | -2.6% | -14.1% | -12.0% | Liberal Democrat |
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| -8.7% |
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| Total votes | 1.661 |
| 85% | 76% | 80% | 45% |
Swing Labour to Conservative ~ 2½% since May, 3¾% since 2018, 10% since 2016 and 6¾% since 2015 Council now 37 Labour, 8 Conservative, 2 Independent Middlesbrough, Park End & Beckfield - Independent Hill elected | Party | 2019 B votes | 2019 B share | since 2019 "top" | since 2019 "average" | since 2017 B | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | | Independent Hill | 511 | 53.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Independent James | 303 | 31.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Labour | 115 | 11.9% | -2.1% | +0.1% | -22.1% | -30.3% | -25.7% | Conservative | 23 | 2.4% | -1.2% | -1.6% | -4.3% | -5.2% | -6.3% | Liberal Democrat | 13 | 1.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | +0.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Previous Independents |
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| -82.4% | -84.2% | -56.9% | -50.2% | -53.7% | Green |
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| -1.4% |
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| Total votes | 965 |
| 76% | 83% | 109% | 41% | 47% |
Swing not meaningful - but combined Independent shares +1.6% / +0.2% since May with Labour -2.1% / +0.1% suggesting limited swing since 2 months ago Council now 20 Labour, 17 Middlesbrough Independent + Executive Mayor, 4 Independent, 3 Conservative, 2 Marton Independent Rhondda Cynon Taf, Rhondda - Plaid Cymru gain from Labour| Party | 2019 votes | 2019 share | since 2017 "top" | since 2017 "average" | since 2012 "top" | since 2012 "average" | Plaid Cymru | 404 | 42.1% | +16.6% | +18.2% | +31.2% | +30.4% | Labour | 266 | 27.7% | -15.1% | -16.6% | -12.3% | -12.2% | Conservative | 145 | 15.1% | +0.3% | +0.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Liberal Democrat | 127 | 13.2% | -3.7% | -4.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Communist | 18 | 1.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Previous Independents |
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| -27.9% | -25.5% | Green |
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| -11.3% | -12.2% | Other Independent |
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| -10.0% | -10.7% | Total votes | 960 |
| 74% | 76% | 62% | 66% |
Swing Labour to Plaid Cymru ~ 15¾% / 17½% since 2017 and, less meaningful, ~ 21½% since 2012 Council now 46 Labour, 18 Plaid Cymru, 7 Independent, " Conservative, 1 Liberal Democrat, 1 Cynon Valley Independent
Wiltshire, Trowbridge Drynham - Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative| Party | 2019 votes | 2019 share | since 2017 | since 2013 | since 2009 | | Liberal Democrat | 431 | 41.6% | +28.4% | +13.7% | +5.7% | Conservative | 316 | 30.5% | -35.8% | -41.6% | -33.7% | Independent | 246 | 23.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Labour | 44 | 4.2% | -16.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Total votes | 1,037 |
| 105% | 148% | 104% |
Swing, impacted upon by Independent, Conservative to Liberal Democrat, 32% since 2017, ~ 28% since 2013 and 20% since 20109 - IF the Independent's votes were 100% Conservative, the adjusted swing Conservative to Liberal Democrat 20% since 2017, 16% since 2013 and 8% since 2009 Council now 65 Conservative, 20 Liberal Democrat, 9 Independent, 3 Labour, 1 Vacant
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Post by froome on Jul 5, 2019 6:35:42 GMT
That's another win for us with a candidate listed under "also standing" in Andrew's Previews; last time it was from Labour in Merton, now from Conservatives in Wiltshire. It is getting harder to predict these things, other than a consistent swing away from Con and Lab where there are alternatives. I know there's an Independent intervention here, but that's a big crash in the Labour vote. Not that surprising. Demographically Trowbridge will be moving towards the Lib Dems and away from Labour, and given an obvious squeeze message and I assume little campaign from Labour, this result was always likely. It's a shame we didn't have a candidate here, as I think we could have got a decent number of votes, and made the contest even more interesting. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 5, 2019 7:45:16 GMT
WILTSHIRE Trowbridge Drynham BRYANT, Andrew James (Liberal Democrats) 431 REYNOLDS, Kam (Conservative) 316 KNIGHT, John Roland Wallace (Independent) 246 HENLEY, Shaun Samuel James (Labour) 44 That's another win for us with a candidate listed under "also standing" in Andrew's Previews; last time it was from Labour in Merton, now from Conservatives in Wiltshire. It is getting harder to predict these things, other than a consistent swing away from Con and Lab where there are alternatives. And yet 6 of 13 people in the prediction competition did predict precisely that outcome and Trowbridge has been a very longstanding area of Lib Dem strength. Not that it isn't a good result for your party, it obviously is, but hardly the kind of unthinkable result implied by Andrew's preview (if that is indeed what was implied) |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 5, 2019 7:52:05 GMT
Rhonda ward is not in the Rhonda constituency but in Pontypridd seat. No, that would make too much sense! It makes perfect sense as the ward includes residential areas of Pontypridd on either side of the river Rhondda. The ward was always called that when it was part of the old Taff Ely council and indeed on the Pontypridd UD council before that |
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Post by yellowperil on Jul 5, 2019 7:53:56 GMT
I know there's an Independent intervention here, but that's a big crash in the Labour vote. Not that surprising. Demographically Trowbridge will be moving towards the Lib Dems and away from Labour, and given an obvious squeeze message and I assume little campaign from Labour, this result was always likely. It's a shame we didn't have a candidate here, as I think we could have got a decent number of votes, and made the contest even more interesting. Trowbridge in general isn't all that bad territory for LDs but afaik not before in this ward particularly. We were starting from a vote in 2017 of just 130, as against Labour's 203, so the initial squeeze message wasn't that obvious. A Green intervention might well have neutralised the effect of the Tories facing the ex-Tory Indy intervention. In some places it might be argued that a Green has more chance than a Lib Dem of mopping up disaffected Labour votes, but the Lib Dem here does not appear to have had any difficulty in doing so. A lot depends on the quality of the local campaign and candidate. |
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carlton43
Reform Party
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Post by carlton43 on Jul 5, 2019 8:00:15 GMT
RHONDDA CYNON TAF Rhondda GRIFFITHS, Eleri Megan (Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales) 404 TOMKINSON, Loretta (Welsh Labour / Llafur Cymru) 266 DAVIES, Alexander Francis (Welsh Conservative Party Candidate) 145 ROBERTS, Karen (Welsh Liberal Democrats / Democratiaidd Rhyddfrydol Cymru) 127 DUMPHY, Adrian (Welsh Communist Party / Y Blaid Gomiwnyddol Gymreig) 18 That is a quite respectable TO for us in a Rhondda ward. In all our present circumstances.....Well done. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 5, 2019 8:07:57 GMT
Not that surprising. Demographically Trowbridge will be moving towards the Lib Dems and away from Labour, and given an obvious squeeze message and I assume little campaign from Labour, this result was always likely. It's a shame we didn't have a candidate here, as I think we could have got a decent number of votes, and made the contest even more interesting. Trowbridge in general isn't all that bad territory for LDs but afaik not before in this ward particularly. We were starting from a vote in 2017 of just 130, as against Labour's 203, so the initial squeeze message wasn't that obvious. A Green intervention might well have neutralised the effect of the Tories facing the ex-Tory Indy intervention. In some places it might be argued that a Green has more chance than a Lib Dem of mopping up disaffected Labour votes, but the Lib Dem here does not appear to have had any difficulty in doing so. A lot depends on the quality of the local campaign and candidate. It's clear that Graham Payne had a very substantial personal vote. Witness some of the previous results for the ward on the old West Wiltshire council: 1995 Payne G.* Con 433 Baddeley J. Ms. Lab 408 Denby-Gardner J. LD 389 Robinson J. Ms. Lab 372 Fuller P. Con 334 Scrivens J. LD 332 Prentice J. Ind 200 1999 Francis M.* LD 480 Payne G.* Con 407 Osborn H. Ms. LD 368 Pearce A. Con 297 Ham J. Ms. Green 90 2003 Payne G.* Con 601 Burnan G. Con 488 Hill G. Ms. LD 448 Francis M.* LD 434 Drinkwater P. Green 153 |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 5, 2019 8:08:49 GMT
RHONDDA CYNON TAF Rhondda GRIFFITHS, Eleri Megan (Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales) 404 TOMKINSON, Loretta (Welsh Labour / Llafur Cymru) 266 DAVIES, Alexander Francis (Welsh Conservative Party Candidate) 145 ROBERTS, Karen (Welsh Liberal Democrats / Democratiaidd Rhyddfrydol Cymru) 127 DUMPHY, Adrian (Welsh Communist Party / Y Blaid Gomiwnyddol Gymreig) 18 That is a quite respectable TO for us in a Rhondda ward. In all our present circumstances.....Well done. It isn't 'a Rhondda ward'. Read the thread. |
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carlton43
Reform Party
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Post by carlton43 on Jul 5, 2019 8:09:07 GMT
Nice to know the Darleks are canvassing with us, that will have been useful in Tory areas 
Vote for us or you will be exterminated!
THAT WAS A THIRD PARTY POLITICAL BROADCAST BY THE CAPTAIN OBVIOUS PARTY |
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Jul 5, 2019 9:05:55 GMT
That is a quite respectable TO for us in a Rhondda ward. In all our present circumstances.....Well done. It isn't 'a Rhondda ward'. Read the thread. Oh how very 'Forum' of you Pete. So it isn't a Rhondda ward then? It is on the Rhondda River. It is in the Rhondda Valley. It is in Rhondda Cynon Taff UA The ward is termed Rhondda. I am distraught at upsetting you by calling it 'a Rhondda seat'. I can't believe what came over me. |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jul 5, 2019 9:07:32 GMT
It isn't 'a Rhondda ward'. Read the thread. Oh how very 'Forum' of you Pete. So it isn't a Rhondda ward then? It is on the Rhondda River. It is in the Rhondda Valley. It is in Rhondda Cynon Taff UA The ward is termed Rhondda. I am distraught at upsetting you by calling it 'a Rhondda seat'. I can't believe what came over me. Point is, it's (perhaps oddly) not in the Westminster constituency called "Rhondda". |
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Post by finsobruce on Jul 5, 2019 9:09:21 GMT
It isn't 'a Rhondda ward'. Read the thread. Oh how very 'Forum' of you Pete. So it isn't a Rhondda ward then? It is on the Rhondda River. It is in the Rhondda Valley. It is in Rhondda Cynon Taff UA The ward is termed Rhondda. I am distraught at upsetting you by calling it 'a Rhondda seat'. I can't believe what came over me. Help me Rhondda Help me bring a smile to this thread.
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 5, 2019 10:00:23 GMT
Oh how very 'Forum' of you Pete. So it isn't a Rhondda ward then? It is on the Rhondda River. It is in the Rhondda Valley. It is in Rhondda Cynon Taff UA The ward is termed Rhondda. I am distraught at upsetting you by calling it 'a Rhondda seat'. I can't believe what came over me. Point is, it's (perhaps oddly) not in the Westminster constituency called "Rhondda". And as with other parts of the Pontypridd seat it *is* part of (but unlike the actual Rhondda constituency) there is actually a bit of a "natural" Tory vote here. |
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Adrian
Co-operative Party
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Post by Adrian on Jul 5, 2019 11:21:37 GMT
No, that would make too much sense! It makes perfect sense as the ward includes residential areas of Pontypridd on either side of the river Rhondda. The ward was always called that when it was part of the old Taff Ely council and indeed on the Pontypridd UD council before that It makes sense, but it doesn't make perfect sense. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 5, 2019 11:31:02 GMT
It makes perfect sense as the ward includes residential areas of Pontypridd on either side of the river Rhondda. The ward was always called that when it was part of the old Taff Ely council and indeed on the Pontypridd UD council before that It makes sense, but it doesn't make perfect sense. I suppose you could say it made perfect sense for the ward to be so named prior to 1996 but that when the merged council came about there was an arguable case for renaming it to avoid confusion. Against that I would argue that those entrusted with the decision were under no obligation to worry about the possibility that more than 20 years hence, the name would cause confusion for a couple of people on an internet message board, who couldn't be bothered to do some basic research |
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carlton43
Reform Party
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Post by carlton43 on Jul 5, 2019 12:03:47 GMT
It makes sense, but it doesn't make perfect sense. I suppose you could say it made perfect sense for the ward to be so named prior to 1996 but that when the merged council came about there was an arguable case for renaming it to avoid confusion. Against that I would argue that those entrusted with the decision were under no obligation to worry about the possibility that more than 20 years hence, the name would cause confusion for a couple of people on an internet message board, who couldn't be bothered to do some basic research I am concerned at all of what you have said on this Pete. This 'couldn't be bothered' is a bit rich. I remember the old politics, I know the maps of then and now, I have been there and know the geography. I know the interface between the old Pontypridd and the then two Rhondda constituencies. What I said as a simple throw-away remark was that it was a reasonable result for us in 'a' Rhondda seat under all the present circumstances. And so it was. I did not say it was a good result for a ward embedded in the very heart of the Westminster Constituency of Rhondda did I? I said in a Rhondda ward. For goodness sake man. It IS a Rhondda seat as it is because it is on the Rhondda, in the Rhondda valley and the ward has the actual name 'Rhondda'. How can it not be a Rhondda seat? You are just being nit-pickingly difficult over it. It doesn't have to be in the quite artificial confines of the Westminster seat to be termed a Rhondda seat. You do not get to define what is meant by a Rhondda seat. The damn seat is called 'Rhondda' how can you assert it is not a Rhondda seat. It is all about nothing and my point has been lost. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 5, 2019 12:07:34 GMT
Most people in the area would interpret "Rhondda" as meaning one of the two Rhondda valleys - Rhondda Fach and Rhondda Fawr.
This byelection was nowhere near either of them. It wasn't in the Rhondda.
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Post by yellowperil on Jul 5, 2019 15:54:01 GMT
It's all a bit fishy to me.
A fish called Rhondda?
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