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Post by justin124 on Jan 4, 2021 14:46:33 GMT
In 2017 Labour went from 1 to 7 seats in Scotland under Corbyn. I see no reason why Starmer cannot better that. I can. See above. Labour's poll ratings in Scotland in April 2017 were lower than they are today.
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Post by froome on Jan 4, 2021 15:02:55 GMT
I assume Lisa Nandy would be one of those. Does being a minister mean that she or others couldn't sign up more openly?
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Focaldata
Jan 4, 2021 15:43:24 GMT
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Post by Merseymike on Jan 4, 2021 15:43:24 GMT
Labour's poll ratings in Scotland in April 2017 were lower than they are today. And those of the SNP?
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 13,622
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Post by J.G.Harston on Jan 4, 2021 15:48:10 GMT
Unless we're talking about vile parties like the BNP or Ltd Companies set up by grifters, I would like to think of UK politics as a broad church and we shouldnt be "crushing" other parties out of existence. Sounds like you want a 2-party system like they have in the USA? Not at all, I just don't want a system that includes the LibDems. The few councillors thy have who are worth keeping (there's at least one near me) would survive as independents. Otherwise they're nothing but deceitful and dishonest and their demise as a party would be good for British politics Which means that if you can't vote Labour you have to rip out your heart and vote Conservative, and if you can't vote Conservative you have to rip out your brain and vote Labour. A choice of one alternative to the status quo is not a choice.
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 13,622
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Post by J.G.Harston on Jan 4, 2021 15:51:47 GMT
Not at all, I just don't want a system that includes the LibDems. The few councillors thy have who are worth keeping (there's at least one near me) would survive as independents. Otherwise they're nothing but deceitful and dishonest and their demise as a party would be good for British politics Under FPTP, Labour require an outlet for soft Tories who can't bring themselves to vote Labour. Often that has been the LibDems, and if they didn't exist, there would need to be an eqwuivalent I think there is actually more of a question as to whether the LibDems would exist in the same way in a more proportional system, as there may not be a need for such a role. In an environment with a proper multi-choice electoral system I'd be able to cleave myself of the Orange Bookers and rebuild a proper Yellow Liberal party.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,285
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Post by Sibboleth on Jan 4, 2021 16:13:02 GMT
A basic problem with MRPs - even the better ones, of which Focaldata is not - is that there is a tendency for a great levelling effect, with the vote distribution of all parties being much more even than is necessarily realistic. There are a few interesting patterns to this survey that accord with a few other indicators of the same things elsewhere, but an eighth of a raised eyebrow is about as far as is reasonable to go there.
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 6,844
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Post by jamie on Jan 4, 2021 20:18:34 GMT
A basic problem with MRPs - even the better ones, of which Focaldata is not - is that there is a tendency for a great levelling effect, with the vote distribution of all parties being much more even than is necessarily realistic. IIRC this was the case in Liverpool in the 2019 MRPs which led to an unusual overperformance for Labour there. Lo and behold, the new Focaldata MRP has a noticeable against the grain swing to the Conservatives in Liverpool...
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Post by hullenedge on Mar 26, 2021 9:07:31 GMT
Further to today's Hartlepool poll in The Times.
Poll (MRP) across 83 Northern marginals, the 2019 Brexit vote now splits:-
Con 37% REFUK 23 Lab 17 Green 4 LD 1 Others 17
Also the current voting intention of 2019 Lab voters across these seats:-
Lab 88.5% Green 5 Con 3 LD 2 REFUK 1 Other 1
2019 LD voters now splitting:-
LD 49% Lab 29 Green 14 Con 6 REFUK 1 Other 1
Forecast Labour gains in Barrow, Morecambe, Blackpool S, Bolton NE, Heywood & M, Warrington S, Altrincham & S W, Colne Valley, Dewsbury, Wakefield, Pudsey, Darlington, Stockton S, Redcar, Blyth Valley.
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 6,844
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Post by jamie on Mar 26, 2021 10:17:08 GMT
The Brexit Party vote splitting 2/1 in favour of the Conservatives even as Labour close the Conservatives lead nationally is rather suggestive of how much came from the Tories and how much would have went to them in Brexit had not stood.
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Focaldata
Mar 26, 2021 10:19:46 GMT
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Post by Merseymike on Mar 26, 2021 10:19:46 GMT
The Brexit Party vote splitting 2/1 in favour of the Conservatives even as Labour close the Conservatives lead nationally is rather suggestive of how much came from the Tories and how much would have went to them in Brexit had not stood. It clearly didn't "come" from the Tories as areas with the highest BP votes saw the Labour vote decline. Perhaps shows that either Labour still aren't trusted not to revert to Rejoin sentiment or that some of those voters have views more inline with Tory ideas anyway.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 26, 2021 10:37:03 GMT
So those seats would go Labour, but not (say) the two Bury constituencies? And in Barrow but not Copeland or Workington??
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Post by hullenedge on Mar 26, 2021 10:42:25 GMT
So those seats would go Labour, but not (say) Bolton NE or the two Bury constituencies? Bolton NE is forecast to go Labour in this Focaldata MRP. We'll have to see if the full spreadsheet is released. Given these forecasts (and assumed likely changes elsewhere) the current standings are probably not far off the latest EC prediction (although individual seats may differ).
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Post by justin124 on Mar 26, 2021 10:55:08 GMT
So those seats would go Labour, but not (say) the two Bury constituencies? And in Barrow but not Copeland or Workington?? Perhaps the Bury seats were not included in the survey. They were never part of the Red Wall anyway , having often returned Tory MPs.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 26, 2021 10:57:00 GMT
The same is true of some of the 14 seats mentioned, though.
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Post by hullenedge on Mar 26, 2021 11:05:49 GMT
The same is true of some of the 14 seats mentioned, though. It's an MRP. Folk have been polled across 83 seats and the trends broken down across the constituencies depending upon their social make-up. You're obviously making inroads in 2019 LD voters/Remain supporters hence the Pudsey and Altrincham forecasts.
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,288
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Post by YL on Mar 26, 2021 13:23:31 GMT
There is now a thread on Focaldata's Twitter feed with more detail. The Bury seats, Copeland and Workington were not included. It was not exactly a poll of marginals: the 83 seats included Richmond (Yorkshire), Beverley & Holderness, Fylde and Thirsk & Malton, among others. Here's the map:
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 1, 2021 17:32:42 GMT
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Post by andrew111 on May 1, 2021 20:41:01 GMT
Unless we're talking about vile parties like the BNP or Ltd Companies set up by grifters, I would like to think of UK politics as a broad church and we shouldnt be "crushing" other parties out of existence. Sounds like you want a 2-party system like they have in the USA? Not at all, I just don't want a system that includes the LibDems. The few councillors thy have who are worth keeping (there's at least one near me) would survive as independents. Otherwise they're nothing but deceitful and dishonest and their demise as a party would be good for British politics LOL! You seem a tad bitter! Did you lose to a Lib Dem sometime or something?
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Post by batman on Dec 10, 2021 15:57:55 GMT
Been a long while since the last published Focaldata poll, but here we have one : Lab 41, Con 33, LD 7, Green 6, SNP 5, Plaid Cymru 1, Others 1. They say the Tories are down 4% from an unpublished poll they did a week ago.
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Post by woollyliberal on Dec 10, 2021 16:43:54 GMT
4 polls in a row with a Labour lead now. And 4 of the 5 polls with more than a 3% lead. Partygate has caused a step change in public opinion.
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