|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 10, 2021 18:41:47 GMT
Been a long while since the last published Focaldata poll, but here we have one : Lab 41, Con 33, LD 7, Green 6, SNP 5, Plaid Cymru 1, Others 1. They say the Tories are down 4% from an unpublished poll they did a week ago. Others can't be on 1 as that lot adds up to 93. Reform must be on around 5% in line with other recent polls
|
|
|
Post by batman on Dec 10, 2021 19:49:49 GMT
very likely. Perhaps they tweeted it out in too much of a hurry without checking.
|
|
|
Post by bigfatron on Dec 22, 2021 10:16:06 GMT
Labour unchanged, Con +1 (?!) LDem +2 SNP -1 Green -2 Changes since 9th Dec
|
|
jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 6,840
|
Post by jamie on Dec 25, 2021 18:43:41 GMT
Merry Christmas!
|
|
cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 8,058
|
Post by cogload on Dec 25, 2021 18:54:06 GMT
It's Christmas day. Can't we leave it for a while?
|
|
|
Focaldata
Dec 25, 2021 20:07:23 GMT
via mobile
Post by mattbewilson on Dec 25, 2021 20:07:23 GMT
someone says that this MRP predicts Waveney Labour gain lol
|
|
CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,242
|
Post by CatholicLeft on Dec 25, 2021 21:00:07 GMT
It's Christmas day. Can't we leave it for a while? Haopy and blessed Christmas, young man.
|
|
|
Focaldata
Dec 25, 2021 21:14:37 GMT
via mobile
Post by Arthur Figgis on Dec 25, 2021 21:14:37 GMT
Aon focal, da focal, tu focal eile, and I not know no focal at all.
|
|
European Lefty
Labour
Can be bribed with salted liquorice
Posts: 5,505
Member is Online
|
Post by European Lefty on Dec 26, 2021 7:08:58 GMT
someone says that this MRP predicts Waveney Labour gain lol Yep, alongside Ceredigion, York Outer, Southend East and both Bournemouth seats. It looks like they've tried to work out how Labour can get a majority without winning back much in Scotland or the Midlands
|
|
cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 8,058
|
Post by cogload on Dec 26, 2021 9:04:39 GMT
The map looks like predicting Portsmouth South as a Conservative gain (or the one I saw posted on twitter did). That isn't happening.
|
|
|
Post by woollyliberal on Dec 26, 2021 9:26:01 GMT
Remember that MPR doesn't take account of tactical voting. That makes a noticeable difference in Scotland where Con / Lab and LD will receive non SNP votes where they can win. It will also affect a seat or two in England and Wales. When predicting majorities or coalitions, it is worth bearing this in mind.
|
|
|
Post by batman on Dec 26, 2021 9:41:39 GMT
someone says that this MRP predicts Waveney Labour gain lol Yep, alongside Ceredigion, York Outer, Southend East and both Bournemouth seats. It looks like they've tried to work out how Labour can get a majority without winning back much in Scotland or the Midlands Waveney & Ceredigion definitely aren't happening. Rochford & E Southend is unlikely but not quite impossible. Bournemouth W is a longshot but possible. Outer York & Bournemouth E are within the national swing shown and unless there's a compelling reason for the swing to Labour to be lower there they are likely if this poll were borne out
|
|
|
Post by matureleft on Dec 26, 2021 10:45:52 GMT
Of course constituency predictions based on a national poll are for fun only, and anyway are meaningless at this point in the electoral cycle. But it’s not unreasonable to anticipate some much larger than average swings to Labour should Labour be in the lead when the election is called. Those might particularly occur in seats with reasonably recent records of Labour support if Brexit starts both to fade and fail to deliver the things expected - the fatal element won’t be some economic disappointment it’ll be some clear evidence that winning back “control” was a largely rhetorical flourish or a legalistic nicety.
|
|
|
Post by andrew111 on Dec 26, 2021 11:29:15 GMT
Remember that MPR doesn't take account of tactical voting. That makes a noticeable difference in Scotland where Con / Lab and LD will receive non SNP votes where they can win. It will also affect a seat or two in England and Wales. When predicting majorities or coalitions, it is worth bearing this in mind. From the map it looks like they predict Con holds in Cheadle and Hazel Grove. On UNS Cheadle is an easy Lib Dem win on the input figures and Hazel Grove a Tory win by 1%. In both cases the Labour vote rises to just over 20%. I think UNS will be much better than this MRP based on demographics, since it reflects the target seat level tactical squeeze in previous elections. But in addition, if the polls stay like that it will be a 1997 type of election where the Tory switchers went Labour in most places but mainly to Lib Dem in our target seats, leading to victories like Harrogate and Knaresborough. So I would predict that on figures like the current polls both Cheadle and Hazel Grove would go Lib Dem
|
|
jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 6,840
|
Post by jamie on Dec 26, 2021 11:57:28 GMT
|
|
cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 8,058
|
Post by cogload on Dec 26, 2021 12:09:54 GMT
Labour polling 18% in O&S? Interesting figure there.
|
|
jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 6,840
|
Post by jamie on Dec 26, 2021 12:16:14 GMT
Couple of points to remember about MRP: They tend to pick up generic party support, particularly before an election period. This can significantly underestimate the eventual vote share for the Lib Dem’s in places they are competitive. Party support tends to be a bit flatter than it will be in practice.
|
|
carolus
Lib Dem
Posts: 4,566
Member is Online
|
Post by carolus on Dec 26, 2021 12:26:18 GMT
Perhaps worth noting the fieldwork is 1 Dec - 21 Dec. Think it's fair to say the political situation may have evolved in between.
|
|
|
Post by graham on Dec 26, 2021 13:31:25 GMT
Yep, alongside Ceredigion, York Outer, Southend East and both Bournemouth seats. It looks like they've tried to work out how Labour can get a majority without winning back much in Scotland or the Midlands Waveney & Ceredigion definitely aren't happening. Rochford & E Southend is unlikely but not quite impossible. Bournemouth W is a longshot but possible. Outer York & Bournemouth E are within the national swing shown and unless there's a compelling reason for the swing to Labour to be lower there they are likely if this poll were borne out Waveney was comfortably Labour-held 1997 - 2010 when it was very narrowly lost. If Brexit really has now lost its salience as an electoral issue, a well above average swingback to Labour there should not be ruled out - with the 2017 and 2019 results being possible aberrations. Cardigan was Labour-held 1966 - Feb 1974.
|
|
|
Post by bjornhattan on Dec 26, 2021 13:48:37 GMT
Waveney & Ceredigion definitely aren't happening. Rochford & E Southend is unlikely but not quite impossible. Bournemouth W is a longshot but possible. Outer York & Bournemouth E are within the national swing shown and unless there's a compelling reason for the swing to Labour to be lower there they are likely if this poll were borne out Waveney was comfortably Labour-held 1997 - 2010 when it was very narrowly lost. If Brexit really has now lost its salience as an electoral issue, a well above average swingback to Labour there should not be ruled out - with the 2017 and 2019 results being possible aberrations. Cardigan was Labour-held 1966 - Feb 1974.
The Conservative majority there is 35% now, meaning a swing of almost 18% from Conservative to Labour would be needed there. That's much greater than the national swing. It's also worth pointing out that even if Brexit ceases to be a dividing factor in our politics, divides around age and home ownership won't just vanish. Waveney has a relatively old population who generally own their own homes - not exactly fertile ground for Labour.
|
|