iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 10,796
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Survation
Mar 30, 2024 20:40:32 GMT
via mobile
Post by iain on Mar 30, 2024 20:40:32 GMT
Certainly some very discordant results in there, especially coming at it from an LD perspective.
Also taking account of some of their MRPs prior to 2019, I think it’s fair to say that this method probably isn’t Survation’s forte.
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Post by johnloony on Mar 30, 2024 20:45:43 GMT
They have a probability of 1% that Conservative will win Croydon South and 2% that Conservative will win Brighton Pavilion hahaha
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Post by sonofkrautrock on Mar 30, 2024 20:47:18 GMT
The idea Labour will beat the by-election winner in Chesham & Amersham probably tells you all you need to know about how robust the methodology of Best for Britain’s crystal ball-gazing is.
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Post by IceAgeComing on Mar 30, 2024 20:53:01 GMT
Constituency details here: www.bestforbritain.org/spring-2024-pollingIf you're expecting to see 'Lab gain East Grinstead and Uckfield' come up on the captions during BBC Election 2024, then I think you should brace yourself for disappointment. Agreed - one or two of those are palpable bollocks… This is one of those things where most of them are probably nonsense but you also might get a few that sneak through - Labour gaining Canterbury from memory was sneered at before it happened. Also if we genuinely are talking about 98 seats then I think there are actually a handful of safe seats that would not be at risk I suspect: that is probably an unlikely scenario but not completely unheard of
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Post by nobodyimportant on Mar 30, 2024 22:08:10 GMT
The map shows a Lib Dem gain in Yeovil but the seat by seat results give a 63% chance of a Tory hold there - St Ives is also yellow despite them giving Con a greater chance of holding the seat than losing to us. They predict Wokingham as a Lab gain despite also listing a 52% chance of a Con hold there, while Tim Farron holds on despite them showing a Con gain as most likely outcome.
I'm assuming they calculated the number of seats and then just went down in order of probability until they had enough or something?
They also give only a 3% chance of a LD regain in Caithness? I know the boundary changes mean we start from behind there but the chance has got to be better than that. Just 21% for Edinburgh West also seems very odd.
Also honestly with Theresa May standing down and us focusing on Wokingham I think Lab are more likely to gain Maidenhead (2% chance) than Wokingham (32% chance).
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Post by kevinf on Mar 30, 2024 22:48:56 GMT
Agreed - one or two of those are palpable bollocks… This is one of those things where most of them are probably nonsense but you also might get a few that sneak through - Labour gaining Canterbury from memory was sneered at before it happened. Also if we genuinely are talking about 98 seats then I think there are actually a handful of safe seats that would not be at risk I suspect: that is probably an unlikely scenario but not completely unheard of As a then Kent Labour activist, Labour gaining Canterbury was not sneered at because absolutely no-one suggested it. On election night when we heard there was a recount in Canterbury, the Tory agent and I in a different seat in Kent assumed it was for the Lib Dems trying to save their deposit.
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Post by carolus on Mar 30, 2024 22:51:08 GMT
Wonder if Survation would like to offer markets based on their probabilities?
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Post by kevinf on Mar 30, 2024 22:55:31 GMT
Constituency details here: www.bestforbritain.org/spring-2024-pollingIf you're expecting to see 'Lab gain East Grinstead and Uckfield' come up on the captions during BBC Election 2024, then I think you should brace yourself for disappointment. Yep. I genuinely don’t understand why they damage their credibility by publishing such nonsense.
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Post by batman on Mar 31, 2024 0:10:38 GMT
They have a probability of 1% that Conservative will win Croydon South and 2% that Conservative will win Brighton Pavilion hahaha The Conservatives' chances of winning Croydon South on its new boundaries are a very great deal higher than 1%. I'd say they're well in excess of 50%
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Post by batman on Mar 31, 2024 0:13:11 GMT
do we have vote shares for this poll?
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,355
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Post by YL on Mar 31, 2024 0:43:10 GMT
This is one of those things where most of them are probably nonsense but you also might get a few that sneak through - Labour gaining Canterbury from memory was sneered at before it happened. Also if we genuinely are talking about 98 seats then I think there are actually a handful of safe seats that would not be at risk I suspect: that is probably an unlikely scenario but not completely unheard of As a then Kent Labour activist, Labour gaining Canterbury was not sneered at because absolutely no-one suggested it. On election night when we heard there was a recount in Canterbury, the Tory agent and I in a different seat in Kent assumed it was for the Lib Dems trying to save their deposit. Labour gaining Canterbury was predicted by the YouGov MRP and this was indeed sneered at. As for this one, I don’t think it’s handling the Lib Dems very well, but on current polling the Tories would lose quite a fee places no-one would normally expect them to. Indeed if the Lib Dems won more seats it could be even worse for them.
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Post by johnloony on Mar 31, 2024 0:53:33 GMT
As a then Kent Labour activist, Labour gaining Canterbury was not sneered at because absolutely no-one suggested it. On election night when we heard there was a recount in Canterbury, the Tory agent and I in a different seat in Kent assumed it was for the Lib Dems trying to save their deposit. Labour gaining Canterbury was predicted by the YouGov MRP and this was indeed sneered at. As for this one, I don’t think it’s handling the Lib Dems very well, but on current polling the Tories would lose quite a fee places no-one would normally expect them to. Indeed if the Lib Dems won more seats it could be even worse for them. That sort of unexpected result reminds me of the profiles of several of the north Kent constituencies (just as an example) in the 5th edition of Waller & Criddle’s Almanac of British Politics. Essentially it said that constituencies X, Y and Z were safely Conservative and would inevitably remain so in all foreseeable circumstances. Then, Labour gained a whole lot of them in 1997. The point being that this projection of a general election result (468 Labour and 98 Conservative) might be ridiculous rubbish in general terms, but it may contain a few nuggets of reality which will actually happen. If it is really true that Labour is heading for a big victory in the general election (maybe 380 or 400 seats, not 468), then that is likely to include a few random unexpected gains in unlikely or unexpected places.
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Post by mattbewilson on Mar 31, 2024 1:11:55 GMT
do we have vote shares for this poll? yes two main parties are on 45 Lab 26 Tory
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nyx
Non-Aligned
Posts: 594
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Post by nyx on Mar 31, 2024 3:00:15 GMT
Constituency details here: www.bestforbritain.org/spring-2024-pollingIf you're expecting to see 'Lab gain East Grinstead and Uckfield' come up on the captions during BBC Election 2024, then I think you should brace yourself for disappointment. Agreed - one or two of those are palpable bollocks… I think the most nonsensical result is "Lab gain Hazel Grove". Labour gaining Ayr, Carrick, and Cumnock at the same time as Midlothian being an SNP hold is certainly an extremely brave prediction too.
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Post by batman on Mar 31, 2024 10:15:49 GMT
do we have vote shares for this poll? yes two main parties are on 45 Lab 26 Tory found it now. Other parties LD 10 RefUK 8.5 Green 4 SNP 3 PC 1 Others 2
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,741
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 31, 2024 10:47:01 GMT
Apart from some of the slightly improbable Labour gains, this survey might also be more credible if it reversed the SNP and LibDem seat figures.
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Survation
Mar 31, 2024 11:19:20 GMT
via mobile
Post by mattbewilson on Mar 31, 2024 11:19:20 GMT
Apart from some of the slightly improbable Labour gains, this survey might also be more credible if it reversed the SNP and LibDem seat figures. SNP > LDs
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,741
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 31, 2024 11:22:35 GMT
Yes, that is what this poll says - but I am far from convinced it will happen at the GE.
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r34t
Non-Aligned
Posts: 872
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Post by r34t on Mar 31, 2024 11:26:33 GMT
No account of local LibDem strength. Frome & East Somerset is a 58% chance of a Labour win, 0% LDem - it’s as if the Somerton & Frome by-election never happened …
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Post by batman on Mar 31, 2024 13:10:00 GMT
that is extremely silly - the 58% chance not your comment
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