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Survation
Nov 29, 2023 12:15:17 GMT
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Post by afleitch on Nov 29, 2023 12:15:17 GMT
MRP would perhaps be served better by classifying constituencies into similar 'groups' first (done for decades in various ways) looking at voting behaviour to account for voting patterns contrary to constituency demographics before applying the model.
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Post by gwynthegriff on Nov 29, 2023 12:24:53 GMT
I agree, it's seems they're working on a false MO. I think I can speak on behalf of the yellow team to say that if they only got 23 seats inthe next GE, they would be extremely disappointed and must have run an awful campaign. As stated above, it seems to make no allowance for tactical voting or any other nuances. Having said that, I do like the "feel" of the map itself! I'd take 23. But perhaps that's the fatalism of long experience.
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Post by manchesterman on Nov 29, 2023 12:34:08 GMT
I bow to your experience but, given that almost all of your target seats are currently held by the Tories and then considering their meltdown in popularity, I would think [with better focusing of resources on say 60 keyseats] why you couldnt end up with at least 40?
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Post by gwynthegriff on Nov 29, 2023 12:37:53 GMT
I bow to your experience but, given that almost all of your target seats are currently held by the Tories and then considering their meltdown in popularity, I would think [with better focusing of resources on say 60 keyseats] why you couldnt end up with at least 40? Oh, I'd hope for 40-ish but ... events, dear boy, events. (And sometimes my comments shouldn't be taken too seriously.)
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Nov 29, 2023 12:57:42 GMT
The SNP "gaining" Edinburgh West from the Lib Dems under current circumstances would be an... interesting outcome...
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 29, 2023 12:59:05 GMT
There are all sorts of "interesting" outcomes in this one, some of the Tory holds look rather unlikely too.
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Post by John Chanin on Nov 29, 2023 13:07:32 GMT
MRP would perhaps be served better by classifying constituencies into similar 'groups' first (done for decades in various ways) looking at voting behaviour to account for voting patterns contrary to constituency demographics before applying the model. I thought they did! The reputable ones anyway. There are clearly a lot of chancers out there who don't know what they are doing. The general principle though that different segments of the population have different 'swings' is sound.
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 29, 2023 13:10:33 GMT
It does look like only YouGov have really "cracked" MRP in a UK context so far.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Nov 29, 2023 20:32:05 GMT
Well, they take a poll result and use demographics to break it down by constituency, which is arguably the more important poll under FPTP. But neither the polling nor the demographics can account for tactical voting or the impact of different campaigns in different seats which is what meads to some of the odd results. This one is clearly nonsense That's precisely the problem. It's quite correct that the constituency results under FPTP are more important than the headline Voting Intention, especially for parties below the top two (where for the latter the rating vs each other and the trend gives you a decent idea of how they are going to do in their target seats.) But loads of "odd" (i.e. incredible) predictions in specific seats are likely to make the overall prediction rubbish. If they can actually crack it, MRP would be a really useful tool. But (as I spent some time failing to explain to someone the other day) it's not data, (as a constituency poll in e.g. Eastbourne would be, even a poor one) it's a prediction based on data.
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Post by andrewp on Nov 29, 2023 21:16:11 GMT
Per the Labour gain Eastbourne from the MRP, how possible/ likely is it that in 20 years time that Labour might be in contention in Eastbourne? Are there reasons that the demographic changes spreading out from Brighton to Worthing and Seaford will or won’t reach Eastbourne?
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Khunanup
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Post by Khunanup on Nov 29, 2023 21:33:11 GMT
Per the Labour gain Eastbourne from the MRP, how possible/ likely is it that in 20 years time that Labour might be in contention in Eastbourne? Are there reasons that the demographic changes spreading out from Brighton to Worthing and Seaford will or won’t reach Eastbourne? The urban sprawl of western central Sussex is very different from the lumps and bumps to the east. On a practical level Newhaven and Seaford (not sure why you've put the latter in the same bracket as Worthing, it's more due to the Lib Dems leaving a non-Tory gap rather than B&H overspill) don't have direct train links to London and they're bypassed by the main road links in the area. In Eastbourne's case, it's not the Brighton influence that attracts to that as much as further afield, but inland. You want to retire by the sea in much of East Sussex (and eastern Surrey), it's an obvious choice (alongside Seaford and Bexhill). If the young family middle class who want a seaside lifestyle continue to move away from the Conservatives then moving to Eastbourne is a choice rather than the alternatives all of which (bar Seaford which is a little too twee) have their downsides, being a bit rough or dormitory (Bexhill). So, no, if anything Eastbourne remains a Labour deadzone but the demographics move relatively slowly (but not massively) in the Lib Dem direction.
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Post by matureleft on Nov 29, 2023 22:46:00 GMT
Per the Labour gain Eastbourne from the MRP, how possible/ likely is it that in 20 years time that Labour might be in contention in Eastbourne? Are there reasons that the demographic changes spreading out from Brighton to Worthing and Seaford will or won’t reach Eastbourne? The urban sprawl of western central Sussex is very different from the lumps and bumps to the east. On a practical level Newhaven and Seaford (not sure why you've put the latter in the same bracket as Worthing, it's more due to the Lib Dems leaving a non-Tory gap rather than B&H overspill) don't have direct train links to London and they're bypassed by the main road links in the area. In Eastbourne's case, it's not the Brighton influence that attracts to that as much as further afield, but inland. You want to retire by the sea in much of East Sussex (and eastern Surrey), it's an obvious choice (alongside Seaford and Bexhill). If the young family middle class who want a seaside lifestyle continue to move away from the Conservatives then moving to Eastbourne is a choice rather than the alternatives all of which (bar Seaford which is a little too twee) have their downsides, being a bit rough or dormitory (Bexhill). So, no, if anything Eastbourne remains a Labour deadzone but the demographics move relatively slowly (but not massively) in the Lib Dem direction. It's easier to argue a westward coastline march from Brighton. Shoreham, Lancing, Worthing all have reasonable rail links and, while disadvantaged by the notorious A27 are nevertheless on the main road system, and have seen Labour advances. Chichester, particularly in its new, pared down, form must surely see anti-Tory progress. Bognor and Littlehampton are more isolated and not well-served by road, but Havant?
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Post by hullenedge on Nov 30, 2023 12:39:19 GMT
Survation's 2019 notionals gave Labour a very small boost 367 vs 205.
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Post by michaelarden on Nov 30, 2023 21:41:34 GMT
Survation's 2019 notionals gave Labour a very small boost 367 vs 205. But a larger Tory majority...
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Post by elinorhelyn on Dec 5, 2023 17:41:23 GMT
Let me remind people that Labour did take quite a few LD/Tory 1st/2nd places from 3rd in 97. In a landslide a rising tide lifts all boats of the party that wins a landslide.
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Dec 5, 2023 17:51:31 GMT
Let me remind people that Labour did take quite a few LD/Tory 1st/2nd places from 3rd in 97. In a landslide a rising tide lifts all boats of the party that wins a landslide. Plus one seat froma narrow 4th i believe!
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Post by andrewp on Dec 5, 2023 18:02:06 GMT
Let me remind people that Labour did take quite a few LD/Tory 1st/2nd places from 3rd in 97. In a landslide a rising tide lifts all boats of the party that wins a landslide. I think they took 10 from 3rd place in 1997 so not loads but some.
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YL
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Post by YL on Dec 5, 2023 18:33:33 GMT
Let me remind people that Labour did take quite a few LD/Tory 1st/2nd places from 3rd in 97. In a landslide a rising tide lifts all boats of the party that wins a landslide. I think they took 10 from 3rd place in 1997 so not loads but some. Wikipedia lists 10 from third (Aberdeen South, Bristol West, Conwy, Falmouth & Camborne, Hastings & Rye, Leeds North West, Oldham East & Saddleworth, St Albans, Shrewsbury & Atcham, Sittingbourne & Sheppey) and one from fourth (Inverness East, Nairn & Lochaber).
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Dec 5, 2023 19:01:09 GMT
I think they took 10 from 3rd place in 1997 so not loads but some. Wikipedia lists 10 from third (Aberdeen South, Bristol West, Conwy, Falmouth & Camborne, Hastings & Rye, Leeds North West, Oldham East & Saddleworth, St Albans, Shrewsbury & Atcham, Sittingbourne & Sheppey) and one from fourth (Inverness East, Nairn & Lochaber). Aye, but the latter was notionally fourth, so who knows. I'll be interested to see whether Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey or Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire will show a revival in the Labour vote.
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Post by Merseymike on Dec 5, 2023 19:20:19 GMT
I think they took 10 from 3rd place in 1997 so not loads but some. Wikipedia lists 10 from third (Aberdeen South, Bristol West, Conwy, Falmouth & Camborne, Hastings & Rye, Leeds North West, Oldham East & Saddleworth, St Albans, Shrewsbury & Atcham, Sittingbourne & Sheppey) and one from fourth (Inverness East, Nairn & Lochaber). Bristol West is now very safe Labour, St. Albans winning the LibDem, then Sittingbourne and Sheppey very safe Tory. All three are will keep safe . I don't think they will change.
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