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Post by finsobruce on Nov 13, 2023 23:20:13 GMT
But with more lesbians, or so I'm told. Not that I've done an in-depth survey of lesbianism in Stroud. (I was once told by a someone in the NHS that the two biggest problem areas - as they saw it - for people who refused conventional medicine were Stroud and Hebden Bridge.) Connected as they are by the Ancient Saxon Dyke! Be Offa with you.
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Post by finsobruce on Nov 13, 2023 23:20:49 GMT
Sorry I'm lost. The only Light I know is the cinema? I was wondering too. Is it the 'newspaper' by that name?
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Nov 13, 2023 23:59:56 GMT
a good friend of mine in Stroud CLP is very active distributing anti-Light leaflets there. They need opposing strongly I've a friend who's too left-wing for you (last seen in TUSC, I think) who has done a bit. For example, there's a warning about them on the door of The Ale House on your way to the bar ("Don't buy The Light" with some details of their nastiness.)
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Nov 14, 2023 0:11:22 GMT
Sorry I'm lost. The only Light I know is the cinema? I was wondering too. Is it the 'newspaper' by that name? Yes. Anti-vax, anti-semitic (real ones, not the sort of thing Suella Braverman comes up with), every other lunatic conspiracy theory involving Bill Gates or Soros. There's usually. a bunch of weirdos pushing it in the High Street in Stroud most Saturday mornings, I'm not sure why they aren't moved on. I fear that most passers by think "Ah, a bunch of weird beardy loonies, possibly a folk band, nothing unusual for these parts" To be fair to her, I think Siobhan Baillie has been critical too.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 14, 2023 14:05:24 GMT
A local bakers regularly had copies of The Light on display. Even just from the headlines, you could tell it was the most insane deranged bat***t.
The place has recently shut down, though I am not saying the two things are necessarily connected.
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Crimson King
Lib Dem
Be nice to each other and sing in tune
Posts: 9,441
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Post by Crimson King on Nov 14, 2023 14:23:40 GMT
A local bakers regularly had copies of The Light on display. Even just from the headlines, you could tell it was the most insane deranged bat***t. The place has recently shut down, though I am not saying the two things are necessarily connected. well you would say that…
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Survation
Nov 14, 2023 16:36:10 GMT
via mobile
Post by hullenedge on Nov 14, 2023 16:36:10 GMT
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Post by carolus on Nov 14, 2023 18:41:20 GMT
It seems very unsatisfactory when these models fail to take into account results from byelections. These are electoral events that have really happened, with results that will seriously affect the outcome of the next election.
Of course you can't expect every piece of information to be included in the model, but if you are claiming to predict every individual seat in the next election then to ignore byelections and continue regardless is surely nonsense.
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Post by sonofkrautrock on Nov 15, 2023 18:39:11 GMT
Doesn’t look like MRP, more a projection of uniform national swing.
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Post by hullenedge on Nov 28, 2023 19:19:23 GMT
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iain
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Post by iain on Nov 28, 2023 19:33:13 GMT
I’m surprised they would put their name to such a barmy MRP. Labour gaining Eastbourne may be my personal highlight.
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Merseymike
Independent
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Post by Merseymike on Nov 28, 2023 19:40:41 GMT
I’m surprised they would put their name to such a barmy MRP. Labour gaining Eastbourne may be my personal highlight. Or Mid-Buckinghamshire?
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
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Post by YL on Nov 28, 2023 20:48:02 GMT
Sibboleth might also be very pleasantly surprised if that MRP came true...
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
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Survation
Nov 28, 2023 21:43:17 GMT
via mobile
Post by Khunanup on Nov 28, 2023 21:43:17 GMT
I’m surprised they would put their name to such a barmy MRP. Labour gaining Eastbourne may be my personal highlight. You may as well make up your own results rather than rely on MRPs. Voters aren't fucking algorithms!
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Post by batman on Nov 28, 2023 21:48:54 GMT
It gives the polling industry a bad name when you get obviously absurd predictions like Lab gain Eastbourne. (There has not even been a single Labour councillor in Eastbourne for over 30 years.)
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Post by carolus on Nov 28, 2023 22:40:14 GMT
It's quite obvious that the people responsible for these MRPs have no concept or expectation of any sort of consequence or even attempt at assessment, of their predictions. I wonder how long "Labour wins Eastbourne" and the like would last if they were forced to take bets on their predictions...
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
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Post by Khunanup on Nov 28, 2023 22:48:44 GMT
It gives the polling industry a bad name when you get obviously absurd predictions like Lab gain Eastbourne. (There has not even been a single Labour councillor in Eastbourne for over 30 years.) To even call them part of the polling industry is a stretch (MRPs that is). They're more akin to betting 'systems' with all the logical leaps, assumptions and pure guesswork that goes on within those kind of fields.
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European Lefty
Labour
Can be bribed with salted liquorice
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Post by European Lefty on Nov 29, 2023 9:25:30 GMT
Well, they take a poll result and use demographics to break it down by constituency, which is arguably the more important poll under FPTP. But neither the polling nor the demographics can account for tactical voting or the impact of different campaigns in different seats which is what meads to some of the odd results.
This one is clearly nonsense
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Post by batman on Nov 29, 2023 10:57:22 GMT
MRPs are carried out by companies who are, in all cases I think, affiliated to polling & market research industry bodies. Therefore it is the polling industry even if these aren't actual polls.
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Post by manchesterman on Nov 29, 2023 11:59:13 GMT
I agree, it's seems they're working on a false MO. I think I can speak on behalf of the yellow team to say that if they only got 23 seats inthe next GE, they would be extremely disappointed and must have run an awful campaign. As stated above, it seems to make no allowance for tactical voting or any other nuances.
Having said that, I do like the "feel" of the map itself!
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