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Post by greyfriar on Dec 5, 2023 19:57:40 GMT
Wikipedia lists 10 from third (Aberdeen South, Bristol West, Conwy, Falmouth & Camborne, Hastings & Rye, Leeds North West, Oldham East & Saddleworth, St Albans, Shrewsbury & Atcham, Sittingbourne & Sheppey) and one from fourth (Inverness East, Nairn & Lochaber). Aye, but the latter was notionally fourth, so who knows. I'll be interested to see whether Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey or Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire will show a revival in the Labour vote. Labour still to declare a candidate, who will be up against relatively high profile councillors (former and current Council Leader) for SNP and Tories, each of whom may well outpoll the underlying vote for their respective parties.
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Post by andrewp on Dec 21, 2023 17:59:31 GMT
Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 45% (-1) CON: 28% (-1) LDM: 10% (=) RFM: 8% (+3) SNP: 2% (-1) GRN: 2% (-1)
Via @survation, 15-18 Dec. Changes w/ 31 Oct - 3 Nov.
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Post by grumpyguy on Dec 22, 2023 12:52:39 GMT
This poll seems to be the smallest sample size of all VI polls taken in 2024. Survation generally do smaller polls than anyone else, and this (792) is the smallest shown on Wiki 2024 opinion polling pages. Survation also generally show a higher combined figure for the 2 main parties than any other pollster & this poll has the highest Lab+Con vote share for several months. So probably to be treated with caution.
That said, it remains to be seen whether intending Green and Reform voters will actually vote in the Election the way other pollsters indicate, so may be Survation will prove to be more accurate after all.
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Post by iainbhx on Jan 14, 2024 8:54:27 GMT
Survation have done a constituency poll (sample ~500) in Clacton funded by Arron Banks.
The base line is Con 38, Lab 30, Ref-UK 18, LDm 6
However, with Nigel Farage as the Ref-UK candidate it becomes
Ref-UK 37, Con 30, Lab 23, LDm 6
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,741
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 14, 2024 12:33:45 GMT
Some will note that he takes almost as much from Labour as the Tories in this hypothetical - but maybe that's because it is Clacton?
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Post by gibbon on Jan 14, 2024 17:17:58 GMT
But is he prepared to stand in Clacton? If he were to win would Reform do better anywhere else? Would he want to be the only Reform MP in the next House of Commons and will he attend to do the dull, boring, but important constituency work every week for the next five years?
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Post by woollyliberal on Jan 14, 2024 18:50:53 GMT
But is he prepared to stand in Clacton? If he were to win would Reform do better anywhere else? Would he want to be the only Reform MP in the next House of Commons and will he attend to do the dull, boring, but important constituency work every week for the next five years? Don't know Don't know Don't know His record as an MEP suggests not
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Post by hullenedge on Feb 1, 2024 12:32:34 GMT
Constituency polls:-
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Feb 1, 2024 13:36:26 GMT
Which works on the assumption that despite Jonathan Evans standing as an Independent, Plaid will not be hurt
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Post by No Offence Alan on Feb 1, 2024 21:03:01 GMT
Which works on the assumption that despite Jonathan Evans standing as an Independent, Plaid will not be hurt Maybe there are people who would have voted Plaid in the past, if Jonathan Edwards had not been their candidate?
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Post by batman on Feb 1, 2024 23:03:06 GMT
yes Jonathan Evans is a former two-time Conservative MP. Jonathan Edwards (same name as the renowned athlete) is the man you mean.
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Post by batman on Feb 1, 2024 23:05:27 GMT
constituency polls have a generally pretty poor track record & there is no particular reason to suspect these are any more accurate than average.
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Post by mattbewilson on Feb 1, 2024 23:14:06 GMT
constituency polls have a generally pretty poor track record & there is no particular reason to suspect these are any more accurate than average. that's a bit unfair. I think it depends on the pollster. Survation have a mixed history. Someone pointed out they got Thanet South horribly wrong. But I vaguely remember they were bang on Hartlepool
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Post by batman on Feb 1, 2024 23:44:57 GMT
Occasionally a pollster gets one right. But it remains the case that national polls, despite polling a smaller percentage of the electorate, tend to be more accurate for the most part than constituency ones, at least on average. BUT - and this is quite a big but - constituency polls did play quite a part in the 1997 general election in terms of helping voters in their own constituencies work out what was the "correct" tactical vote.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,741
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 2, 2024 12:59:36 GMT
constituency polls have a generally pretty poor track record & there is no particular reason to suspect these are any more accurate than average. that's a bit unfair. I think it depends on the pollster. Survation have a mixed history. Someone pointed out they got Thanet South horribly wrong. But I vaguely remember they were bang on Hartlepool The byelection poll for Hartlepool was very good yes, despite being quite widely disbelieved.
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Feb 2, 2024 13:21:51 GMT
There is an excellent discussion of the 1987 election constituency polls in the political comms book for the 1987 election with our own Robert Waller
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Post by andrewp on Feb 2, 2024 18:45:18 GMT
LAB: 44% (-1) CON: 27% (-1) LDM: 11% (+1) RFM; 7% (-1) SNP: 4% (+2) GRN: 3% (+1)
Via @survation, 30-31 Jan. Changes w/ 18 Dec.
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Post by hullenedge on Feb 5, 2024 9:59:34 GMT
There are valid criticisms of this poll within the thread.
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Post by iainbhx on Feb 5, 2024 10:40:30 GMT
There are valid criticisms of this poll within the thread. And Survation have qualified in their response, this isn‘t the first time the group behind this poll have misrepresented polling for dramatic purposes and that particular ITV news reporter has faithfully reproduced it without any retractions. Some might consider them to be acting in bad faith.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,741
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 5, 2024 12:40:08 GMT
IIRC he was the one who tweeted about "dozens of Labour front bench resignations" being imminent within days of the Gaza conflict starting?
Could barely contain their giddiness, certainly not what you would expect from a supposedly impartial reporter.
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