nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,060
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Dec 7, 2021 17:49:12 GMT
Have you never heard of rounding?
Here, we have all heard of all the various techniques. I am by far the greatest sceptic on polls for this Forum. I regard them to be useful if taken over a period of months and aggregated to show clear trends (up to a point) but as individual entities I consider them to be next to useless and conveying nothing of interest when the electorate is in the present disengaged, obstructive and febrile state. I have been polled on a number of occasions from my 20s and always reply 'Labour' and 'Dissatisfied' to their questions. I can't be alone. This made me smile and reminded me of a letter to the Guardian i remember seeing during the 2001 election campaign-a business owner writing to customers asking how they'd respond to a pollster if asked their voting intention-the responses gave a large Labour lead similar to the polls at the time(i know it would be a 'voodoo' poll). He then asked the same people who would you actually vote for and it showed a small Tory lead. Someone replied to his letter a few days later saying something like 'this proves Tory sleaze has spread to the grassroots!'
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Post by graham on Dec 7, 2021 19:45:04 GMT
Survation provides UK data - so the GB equivalent would be Lab 40% Con 37%.That is not bad at all for Labour given that Scotland has reduced its GB share by circa 2%. On a UNS basis the Survation poll implies 78 Labour gains from the Tories on a 7.4% swing.The Tories would also lose 8 seats to the LDs on a swing of almost 2.5%.Before taking account of any changes in Scotland that would give us Con 279 Lab 281. On these poll figures Wimbledon would become very interesting - a 3- way marginal with the Tories in third place with LDs just ahead on circa 34.5%
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Post by andrew111 on Dec 7, 2021 21:47:57 GMT
Survation provides UK data - so the GB equivalent would be Lab 40% Con 37%.That is not bad at all for Labour given that Scotland has reduced its GB share by circa 2%. On a UNS basis the Survation poll implies 78 Labour gains from the Tories on a 7.4% swing.The Tories would also lose 8 seats to the LDs on a swing of almost 2.5%.Before taking account of any changes in Scotland that would give us Con 279 Lab 281. On these poll figures Wimbledon would become very interesting - a 3- way marginal with the Tories in third place with LDs just ahead on circa 34.5% That is an "interesting" calculation for Wimbledon. I agree with Lib Dem 34.6%, but the UK swing on the UK poll gives Con 32% Lab 28.7%. That discounts tactical voting for 2nd placed Labour in 2019 and tactical voting for second placed Lib Dems in 2023 or 2024.
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Post by Clark on Dec 7, 2021 21:50:55 GMT
I honestly can't believe Labour are only a few points ahead. Mind you, after today's revelations they'll probably be a few more in front in the next poll
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Post by batman on Dec 7, 2021 23:31:49 GMT
I look forward to the day when carlton43 describes a good poll for the Tories as a crap poll too.
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Post by graham on Dec 7, 2021 23:42:39 GMT
Survation provides UK data - so the GB equivalent would be Lab 40% Con 37%.That is not bad at all for Labour given that Scotland has reduced its GB share by circa 2%. On a UNS basis the Survation poll implies 78 Labour gains from the Tories on a 7.4% swing.The Tories would also lose 8 seats to the LDs on a swing of almost 2.5%.Before taking account of any changes in Scotland that would give us Con 279 Lab 281. On these poll figures Wimbledon would become very interesting - a 3- way marginal with the Tories in third place with LDs just ahead on circa 34.5% That is an "interesting" calculation for Wimbledon. I agree with Lib Dem 34.6%, but the UK swing on the UK poll gives Con 32% Lab 28.7%. That discounts tactical voting for 2nd placed Labour in 2019 and tactical voting for second placed Lib Dems in 2023 or 2024. On a GB basis Survation has the Labour vote 7% higher than 2019. Labour polled 23.7% there in 2019 - which implies a vote share now of 30.7%. The Labour vote share fell particularly sharply in the seat in 2019 and might well be seen as an aberration when viewed in the context of earlier results - and leaves greater scope for a 'bounce back'.
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Post by carlton43 on Dec 8, 2021 0:31:04 GMT
I look forward to the day when carlton43 describes a good poll for the Tories as a crap poll too. I have done and on this site.
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Survation
Dec 8, 2021 11:45:58 GMT
via mobile
Post by andrew111 on Dec 8, 2021 11:45:58 GMT
That is an "interesting" calculation for Wimbledon. I agree with Lib Dem 34.6%, but the UK swing on the UK poll gives Con 32% Lab 28.7%. That discounts tactical voting for 2nd placed Labour in 2019 and tactical voting for second placed Lib Dems in 2023 or 2024. On a GB basis Survation has the Labour vote 7% higher than 2019. Labour polled 23.7% there in 2019 - which implies a vote share now of 30.7%. The Labour vote share fell particularly sharply in the seat in 2019 and might well be seen as an aberration when viewed in the context of earlier results - and leaves greater scope for a 'bounce back'. You said the Tories were in third place! However you massage the figures between UK and GB you are not going to get that. The Lib Dems campaigned much harder than Labour in Wimbledon in 2019, which is why we moved from third to second place. Nevertheless Labour did campaign and persuaded many of their voters that they were the only challenger. Next time Labour will have no such argument and only if they are really really stupid will they try and match the Lib Dem campaign, when there are so many more winnable seats if Labour want to deny the Tories a majority. It is the equivalent of St Albans in 2017 where a vigorous Lib Dem campaign moved Daisy Cooper from third to second. In 2019 a lot more Labour voters went for Daisy and I guarantee they were very happy to see their tactical vote worked and got rid of a Tory.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,636
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 8, 2021 12:01:37 GMT
This survey leaves Kantar as the only reasonably regular pollster not to show a Labour lead since the GE, I think?
(plus some occasional outfits like NCP)
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Post by graham on Dec 8, 2021 12:25:14 GMT
On a GB basis Survation has the Labour vote 7% higher than 2019. Labour polled 23.7% there in 2019 - which implies a vote share now of 30.7%. The Labour vote share fell particularly sharply in the seat in 2019 and might well be seen as an aberration when viewed in the context of earlier results - and leaves greater scope for a 'bounce back'. You said the Tories were in third place! However you massage the figures between UK and GB you are not going to get that. The Lib Dems campaigned much harder than Labour in Wimbledon in 2019, which is why we moved from third to second place. Nevertheless Labour did campaign and persuaded many of their voters that they were the only challenger. Next time Labour will have no such argument and only if they are really really stupid will they try and match the Lib Dem campaign, when there are so many more winnable seats if Labour want to deny the Tories a majority. It is the equivalent of St Albans in 2017 where a vigorous Lib Dem campaign moved Daisy Cooper from third to second. In 2019 a lot more Labour voters went for Daisy and I guarantee they were very happy to see their tactical vote worked and got rid of a Tory. The 2019 Tory vote in Wimbledon was 38.4%. Applying the changes shown in this poll would have them on 30.7% - neck and neck with Labour circa 4% behind the LDs. The parrallel with St Albans in 2017 would only be likely to arise if Labour is again well behind the Tories nationally - as in 2019. If Labour is seen to be polling circa 40% at the next GE - and enjoying a poll lead over the Tories - national momentum alone would be likely to help Labour recover ground in a seat where many voters can recall having had a Labour MP.. Were this to materialise, a more likely scenario might well be what we saw in 1997 in seats such as Conway - Enfield Southgate - and Hastings & Rye - where Labour leapfrogged the LDs to win them from third place.Unlike Wimbledon, Labour had never previously come particularly close to winning Southgate and Hastings & Rye.. If Labour manages 40% nationally , polling circa 35% in Wimbledon should be a realistic prospect - as we saw in 2017.
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Post by andrew111 on Dec 8, 2021 12:40:25 GMT
You said the Tories were in third place! However you massage the figures between UK and GB you are not going to get that. The Lib Dems campaigned much harder than Labour in Wimbledon in 2019, which is why we moved from third to second place. Nevertheless Labour did campaign and persuaded many of their voters that they were the only challenger. Next time Labour will have no such argument and only if they are really really stupid will they try and match the Lib Dem campaign, when there are so many more winnable seats if Labour want to deny the Tories a majority. It is the equivalent of St Albans in 2017 where a vigorous Lib Dem campaign moved Daisy Cooper from third to second. In 2019 a lot more Labour voters went for Daisy and I guarantee they were very happy to see their tactical vote worked and got rid of a Tory. The 2019 Tory vote in Wimbledon was 38.4%. Applying the changes shown in this poll would have them on 30.7% - neck and neck with Labour circa 4% behind the LDs. The parrallel with St Albans in 2017 would only be likely to arise if Labour is again well behind the Tories nationally - as in 2019. If Labour is seen to be polling circa 40% at the next GE - and enjoying a poll lead over the Tories - national momentum alone would be likely to help Labour recover ground in a seat where many voters can recall having had a Labour MP.. Were this to materialise, a more likely scenario might well be what we saw in 1997 in seats such as Conway - Enfield Southgate - and Hastings & Rye - where Labour leapfrogged the LDs to win them from third place.Unlike Wimbledon, Labour had never previously come particularly close to winning Southgate and Hastings & Rye.. If Labour manages 40% nationally , polling circa 35% in Wimbledon should be a realistic prospect - as we saw in 2017.
Most seats in the country are governed by national swing. Seats targeted by the Lib Dens are affected by the local campaign to a much greater extent. In 1997 Labour did indeed come from third place to win in a lot of seats including Leeds NW which I know very well. But it was also a good election for us with gains where we were clearly the challengers and put in the effort. The accurate bar chart for Labour next time in Wimbledon at the next election is super clear and voters will see it many times and a high proportion will be canvassed,
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Post by graham on Dec 8, 2021 12:55:45 GMT
The 2019 Tory vote in Wimbledon was 38.4%. Applying the changes shown in this poll would have them on 30.7% - neck and neck with Labour circa 4% behind the LDs. The parrallel with St Albans in 2017 would only be likely to arise if Labour is again well behind the Tories nationally - as in 2019. If Labour is seen to be polling circa 40% at the next GE - and enjoying a poll lead over the Tories - national momentum alone would be likely to help Labour recover ground in a seat where many voters can recall having had a Labour MP.. Were this to materialise, a more likely scenario might well be what we saw in 1997 in seats such as Conway - Enfield Southgate - and Hastings & Rye - where Labour leapfrogged the LDs to win them from third place.Unlike Wimbledon, Labour had never previously come particularly close to winning Southgate and Hastings & Rye.. If Labour manages 40% nationally , polling circa 35% in Wimbledon should be a realistic prospect - as we saw in 2017.
Most seats in the country are governed by national swing. Seats targeted by the Lib Dens are affected by the local campaign to a much greater extent. In 1997 Labour did indeed come from third place to win in a lot of seats including Leeds NW which I know very well. But it was also a good election for us with gains where we were clearly the challengers and put in the effort. The accurate bar chart for Labour next time in Wimbledon at the next election is super clear and voters will see it many times and a high proportion will be canvassed, I know Leeds NW well too - having been a student there in the mid-1970s when Donald Kaberry was the Tory MP - and Keith Joseph the MP for the even safer Leeds NE. How times have changed! I suspect that the national picure will be crucial to Labour's prospects in Wimbledon next time. If Labour appears to be doing well, I would expect a strong recovery there.I don't think it can be assumed that a slump at a single election heralds a longterm permanent shift in its vote. 2017 would also suggest otherwise whilst the dominance of the Brexit and Corbyn factors in 2019 probably made many Labour voters receptive to switching at the time.Those factors will be largely absent in 2023/24. The LDs did make substantial gains in 1997 - but that was in the context of a sharp fall in the Tory vote nationally. If Labour moves up sharply next time, a different scenario presents itself.
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Post by carolus on Dec 9, 2021 18:12:01 GMT
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 8,203
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Post by cogload on Dec 9, 2021 18:33:16 GMT
Thoughts and prayers with Aaron Bastani at this difficult time.
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Post by batman on Dec 9, 2021 18:41:24 GMT
Thoughts and prayers with Aaron Bastani at this difficult time. that made me actually LOL.
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Survation
Dec 9, 2021 18:43:17 GMT
via mobile
Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Dec 9, 2021 18:43:17 GMT
Hopefully these sorts of polls will see the letters go in.
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Post by batman on Dec 9, 2021 18:44:26 GMT
Well the last 3 polls now have Labour +3, +4 and now +6. It may be reasonable to assume that Labour now has at least a slight lead, possibly now a statistically significant one especially as Redfield & Wilton are not noted for pro-Labour bias, rather the opposite. Whether it holds & becomes a feature of course we can't possibly tell.
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Post by batman on Dec 9, 2021 18:45:40 GMT
Hopefully these sorts of polls will see the letters go in. possibly David, but many Tory MPs still see him as a vote-winner compared with other possible options. I suspect that Labour's lead will have to grow quite a lot more before the unrest becomes irresistible.
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Post by andrew111 on Dec 9, 2021 18:58:03 GMT
Most seats in the country are governed by national swing. Seats targeted by the Lib Dens are affected by the local campaign to a much greater extent. In 1997 Labour did indeed come from third place to win in a lot of seats including Leeds NW which I know very well. But it was also a good election for us with gains where we were clearly the challengers and put in the effort. The accurate bar chart for Labour next time in Wimbledon at the next election is super clear and voters will see it many times and a high proportion will be canvassed, I know Leeds NW well too - having been a student there in the mid-1970s when Donald Kaberry was the Tory MP - and Keith Joseph the MP for the even safer Leeds NE. How times have changed! I suspect that the national picure will be crucial to Labour's prospects in Wimbledon next time. If Labour appears to be doing well, I would expect a strong recovery there.I don't think it can be assumed that a slump at a single election heralds a longterm permanent shift in its vote. 2017 would also suggest otherwise whilst the dominance of the Brexit and Corbyn factors in 2019 probably made many Labour voters receptive to switching at the time.Those factors will be largely absent in 2023/24. The LDs did make substantial gains in 1997 - but that was in the context of a sharp fall in the Tory vote nationally. If Labour moves up sharply next time, a different scenario presents itself.
Tory vote right now is moving towards 1997 levels. The best thing for us at the next election would be a Labour landslide like 97. We entered the campaign on about 12%, and Labour on close to 50%. People concluded Labour were certain to win and were released from the "national tactical voting" that squeezed us everywhere in 2015, and 2017, losing votes in the campaign. In 97 we gained nearly 6% during the campaign and 20 seats overall.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Dec 9, 2021 19:20:48 GMT
Hopefully these sorts of polls will see the letters go in. Genuine question: do people really think this is likely? I can't get my head around the idea of a PM with a big majority being removed as leader by his own party in the absence of a national crisis. It seems incredibly implausible to me, but maybe I no longer have any grip on what is normal any more.
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