|
Post by graham on Dec 9, 2021 19:31:47 GMT
On a GB basis Survation is implying Lab 41% Con 35% - a swing of just under 9% from Con To Lab since 2019.
|
|
|
Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Dec 9, 2021 19:47:09 GMT
Hopefully these sorts of polls will see the letters go in. Genuine question: do people really think this is likely? I can't get my head around the idea of a PM with a big majority being removed as leader by his own party in the absence of a national crisis. It seems incredibly implausible to me, but maybe I no longer have any grip on what is normal any more. The party has a transactional relationship with Boris, he isn't loved. If he starts to put the possibility of a government run by Labour on the table, or a government where Labour are propped up by nationalists who want to break up the country, then he'll be removed. I do not doubt that.
|
|
|
Post by andrew111 on Dec 9, 2021 19:47:56 GMT
Hopefully these sorts of polls will see the letters go in. Genuine question: do people really think this is likely? I can't get my head around the idea of a PM with a big majority being removed as leader by his own party in the absence of a national crisis. It seems incredibly implausible to me, but maybe I no longer have any grip on what is normal any more. Margaret Thatcher
|
|
timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
|
Post by timmullen1 on Dec 9, 2021 19:52:05 GMT
Hopefully these sorts of polls will see the letters go in. Genuine question: do people really think this is likely? I can't get my head around the idea of a PM with a big majority being removed as leader by his own party in the absence of a national crisis. It seems incredibly implausible to me, but maybe I no longer have any grip on what is normal any more. I don’t think the normal rules apply to Johnson; I’m reluctant to make comparisons with Trump as I genuinely don’t think he’s as bat shit crazy as The Donald, but where there are similarities is that he has little support amongst traditional Tories and is seen purely as an election winner; he got the job because they knew he was mule headed enough to force a deal through with the Commission and then capitalise on the disarray within both Labour and the LDs and win a GE (although I suspect even they were surprised by the size of their victory). There was no national crisis as I recall in 1990, but it didn’t stop the Tories dumping Thatcher because actual election results suggested they were going to lose their seats, and with it government sometime around 1992; if next May produces a good set of elections for the Opposition parties, and Covid is as back under control as it seemingly was this summer, then a move wouldn’t surprise me.
|
|
|
Post by batman on Dec 9, 2021 22:28:02 GMT
Hopefully these sorts of polls will see the letters go in. Genuine question: do people really think this is likely? I can't get my head around the idea of a PM with a big majority being removed as leader by his own party in the absence of a national crisis. It seems incredibly implausible to me, but maybe I no longer have any grip on what is normal any more. I don't think there is the absence of a national crisis. Although the party issue isn't the actual crisis.
|
|
|
Post by Adam in Stroud on Dec 9, 2021 22:55:28 GMT
Genuine question: do people really think this is likely? I can't get my head around the idea of a PM with a big majority being removed as leader by his own party in the absence of a national crisis. It seems incredibly implausible to me, but maybe I no longer have any grip on what is normal any more. Margaret Thatcher Yeah, I guess so. It must be down to my age that at the time it felt to me like Thatcher had been PM since the dawn of time, and therefore not terribly surprising to find her race had run, whereas Johnson feels like he hasn't actually done anything as PM before people are talking of dumping him.
|
|
|
Survation
Dec 9, 2021 23:19:36 GMT
via mobile
Post by andrew111 on Dec 9, 2021 23:19:36 GMT
Yeah, I guess so. It must be down to my age that at the time it felt to me like Thatcher had been PM since the dawn of time, and therefore not terribly surprising to find her race had run, whereas Johnson feels like he hasn't actually done anything as PM before people are talking of dumping him. He got Brexit done... Remember Remember
|
|
|
Post by batman on Dec 13, 2021 14:35:09 GMT
Very busy poll period. The latest one from Survation is now out. Lab 39, C 32, LD 9, SNP 5, Green 5, Reform 4, Plaid 1, UKIP 1, Reclaim less than 1% (it was specified), Others 4.
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,720
|
Post by The Bishop on Dec 27, 2021 10:14:08 GMT
Again, a notably low LibDem number.
|
|
|
Post by Adam in Stroud on Dec 27, 2021 10:29:28 GMT
Again, a notably low LibDem number. Lower than I think credible, but it's probably fair to say that while I'd expect us to make small net gains on those figures, as most have said that'd be down to local factors which would pull in lots of tactical or swing votes in target seats. (It is also based on a LD vote share of 9%, which is a couple of points lower than several polls have shown us post-N Shropshire) The headline of big losses by the Conservatives if a GE was held tomorrow is reasonably credible, I think, the caveat would be over whether it would be quite so easy for Labour to form a government without some sort of arrangement with other parties.
|
|
iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 10,794
|
Post by iain on Dec 27, 2021 10:37:33 GMT
Again, a notably low LibDem number. Once again, notably ridiculous. Includes such seat by seat highlights as us falling to a poor third in Bath, but closing to within only 1% of winning in Cities.
|
|
YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,350
|
Post by YL on Dec 27, 2021 10:39:05 GMT
This one shows the Tories winning Oxford West & Abingdon on just under 30% of the vote and only very marginally ahead of Labour with the Lib Dems in third. And it actually has Labour winning Bath...
Bizarrely it has Labour winning Edinburgh East but losing Edinburgh South to the Nats.
|
|
|
Survation
Dec 27, 2021 10:42:49 GMT
via mobile
Post by carolus on Dec 27, 2021 10:42:49 GMT
If you click through to the underlying table for the MRP, there is something wrong in at least one column - 2019 Seats + Net Change should equal total MRP seats, but doesn't.
I also observe that their map of seats suggests a Labour gain in Bath, which seems unlikely.
|
|
|
Post by carolus on Dec 27, 2021 10:49:34 GMT
This one shows the Tories winning Oxford West & Abingdon on just under 30% of the vote and only very marginally ahead of Labour with the Lib Dems in third. And it actually has Labour winning Bath... Bizarrely it has Labour winning Edinburgh East but losing Edinburgh South to the Nats. Where are you able to see the seat by seat vote shares?
|
|
cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 8,232
|
Survation
Dec 27, 2021 10:54:36 GMT
via mobile
Post by cogload on Dec 27, 2021 10:54:36 GMT
The vote share is 41% Labour, 35% Conservative, 9% LD's taken from Smithson's site.
The btl comments are still as mad as ever.
|
|
YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,350
|
Post by YL on Dec 27, 2021 10:55:15 GMT
This one shows the Tories winning Oxford West & Abingdon on just under 30% of the vote and only very marginally ahead of Labour with the Lib Dems in third. And it actually has Labour winning Bath... Bizarrely it has Labour winning Edinburgh East but losing Edinburgh South to the Nats. Where are you able to see the seat by seat vote shares? Tables here
|
|
|
Post by carolus on Dec 27, 2021 11:09:05 GMT
Where are you able to see the seat by seat vote shares? Tables hereCheers, just had a quick scroll through.
Seems like the same "Squashing" as the focaldata one - every party squeezed significantly towards their national vote share in every seat. Labour predicted >20% in every seat in England apart from Beaconsfield, East Devon, Lewes and St Albans. Various bizarre individual seat results including the ones you mention earlier.
What is the point of modelling that sells itself on giving accurate, precise seat by seat predictions, and yet produces clear nonsense?
|
|
|
Post by John Chanin on Dec 27, 2021 11:30:34 GMT
Cheers, just had a quick scroll through.
Seems like the same "Squashing" as the focaldata one - every party squeezed significantly towards their national vote share in every seat. Labour predicted >20% in every seat in England apart from Beaconsfield, East Devon, Lewes and St Albans. Various bizarre individual seat results including the ones you mention earlier.
What is the point of modelling that sells itself on giving accurate, precise seat by seat predictions, and yet produces clear nonsense?
It isn't complete nonsense, but it has limitations and needs to be interpreted. It can't take account of tactical considerations in individual seats, even if it works on second order changes between parties. You can look at where you think tactical voting will occur and adjust - that's how you treat models in any sphere. You can ask as part of your polling whether people would consider voting for another party and if so which, but you won't get anything like the actual tactical considerations that squeeze people in a real campaign. Also don't knows are higher in polls than in elections and more importantly they are different people. But there are very many seats where tactical voting is small, and here the model can throw up real features that you can't get with universal swing. You can be pretty sure that all the parties look at these models in deciding where to concentrate their efforts. Oh, and as 1997 showed, the Labour Party can sometimes come from a poor third - if they campaign and the Liberal Democrats focus elsewhere. See Hastings or Leeds NW, or even St Albans.
|
|
|
Post by carolus on Dec 27, 2021 11:49:09 GMT
Cheers, just had a quick scroll through.
Seems like the same "Squashing" as the focaldata one - every party squeezed significantly towards their national vote share in every seat. Labour predicted >20% in every seat in England apart from Beaconsfield, East Devon, Lewes and St Albans. Various bizarre individual seat results including the ones you mention earlier.
What is the point of modelling that sells itself on giving accurate, precise seat by seat predictions, and yet produces clear nonsense?
It isn't complete nonsense, but it has limitations and needs to be interpreted. It can't take account of tactical considerations in individual seats, even if it works on second order changes between parties. You can look at where you think tactical voting will occur and adjust - that's how you treat models in any sphere. You can ask as part of your polling whether people would consider voting for another party and if so which, but you won't get anything like the actual tactical considerations that squeeze people in a real campaign. Also don't knows are higher in polls than in elections and more importantly they are different people. But there are very many seats where tactical voting is small, and here the model can throw up real features that you can't get with universal swing. You can be pretty sure that all the parties look at these models in deciding where to concentrate their efforts. Oh, and as 1997 showed, the Labour Party can sometimes come from a poor third - if they campaign and the Liberal Democrats focus elsewhere. See Hastings or Leeds NW, or even St Albans. Well, of course it could take into account tactical considerations in individual seats. They simply appear not to have done so. None of the things you mention are anywhere near insurmountable, and a model that claims to be accurately predicting seat by seat outcomes should absolutely have attempted to take into account voting dynamics as they actually exist. Otherwise you are simply modelling fantasy elections, at which point, well, what's the point?
And, well, sure parties *can* come from third. However, it seems unlikely we would focus on seats elsewhere in Bath or OxWAB...
|
|
|
Post by batman on Dec 27, 2021 11:55:19 GMT
This one shows the Tories winning Oxford West & Abingdon on just under 30% of the vote and only very marginally ahead of Labour with the Lib Dems in third. And it actually has Labour winning Bath... Bizarrely it has Labour winning Edinburgh East but losing Edinburgh South to the Nats. that's more than bizarre - it's complete bollocks
|
|