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Post by lackeroftalent on May 1, 2021 12:06:48 GMT
In my experience and my opinion, people return their postal votes pretty well as soon as they get them. Often on the same day. There is no class of 'people who return their postal votes early' to consider. If one has a postal vote at all one is likely to be more politically committed and more likely to vote, and less likely to change party over the short term, than those without postal votes. You're right. Speaking to one of the candidates postal vote applications are well up this time around and many post back upon receipt. The parties have been encouraging their known supporters to vote by post. Bet there's a 60-70% turnout amongst postal voters. On the day voting will be quiet. Isn't the normal turnout by those registered for a postal vote in the 60-70% range?
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Post by justin124 on May 1, 2021 12:14:28 GMT
You're right. Speaking to one of the candidates postal vote applications are well up this time around and many post back upon receipt. The parties have been encouraging their known supporters to vote by post. Bet there's a 60-70% turnout amongst postal voters. On the day voting will be quiet. Isn't the normal turnout by those registered for a postal vote in the 60-70% range? For Parliamentary elections well in excess of 80% of postal votes tend to be returned.
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Survation
May 1, 2021 20:32:40 GMT
via mobile
Post by andrew111 on May 1, 2021 20:32:40 GMT
Those who returned their postal votes early are likely to be the more committed voters. In my experience and my opinion, people return their postal votes pretty well as soon as they get them. Often on the same day. There is no class of 'people who return their postal votes early' to consider. If one has a postal vote at all one is likely to be more politically committed and more likely to vote, and less likely to change party over the short term, than those without postal votes. In Kirklees the Royal Mail seems to have lost a significant number of postal votes on their way to voters. I know 4 people personally who have not received them and the elections office is supposedly working on Bank Holiday Monday to hand deliver replacements..
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Post by hullenedge on May 1, 2021 20:36:14 GMT
In my experience and my opinion, people return their postal votes pretty well as soon as they get them. Often on the same day. There is no class of 'people who return their postal votes early' to consider. If one has a postal vote at all one is likely to be more politically committed and more likely to vote, and less likely to change party over the short term, than those without postal votes. In Kirklees the Royal Mail seems to have lost a significant number of postal votes on their way to voters. I know 4 people personally who have not received them and the elections office is supposedly working on Bank Holiday Monday to hand deliver replacements.. Heard same in Calderdale. Not received or misdelivered. Not good.
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Survation
May 1, 2021 20:36:57 GMT
via mobile
Post by andrew111 on May 1, 2021 20:36:57 GMT
There are going to be a lot of ex councillors very unhappy with Boris if that is reflected at the ballot box next week. Except a lot of people will already have voted... In my experience the postal vote in Huddersfield is very Tory in General Elections, but just as capable as the polling day vote of switching to Lib Dem in a local election (if asked in the right way)
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Post by greenchristian on May 1, 2021 21:16:44 GMT
I really dislike that last question - he's the leader of the country, he's responsible for his own actions. I dislike the use of pie charts. You'd prefer it to be presented as bar charts with the phrase "can't win here"?
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msc
Non-Aligned
Posts: 862
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Post by msc on May 3, 2021 11:17:09 GMT
Those who returned their postal votes early are likely to be the more committed voters. In my experience and my opinion, people return their postal votes pretty well as soon as they get them. Often on the same day. There is no class of 'people who return their postal votes early' to consider. If one has a postal vote at all one is likely to be more politically committed and more likely to vote, and less likely to change party over the short term, than those without postal votes. I can even confirm on a personal level. Due to events, I had my first postal vote for this election (I prefer in person voting, but beggars, choosers). It was returned by the first available opportunity.
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on May 3, 2021 16:23:50 GMT
I'll definitely be waiting for Survation😉
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 6,854
Member is Online
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Post by jamie on May 3, 2021 17:18:15 GMT
I'll definitely be waiting for Survation😉 Something something, Labour should be 20 point ahead!?
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,495
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Post by johng on May 3, 2021 23:13:28 GMT
Constituency polling is notoriously bad so take whatever that says with a massive pinch of salt.
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Post by justin124 on May 3, 2021 23:25:57 GMT
Big shift to the Tories on the Betting markets.
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Post by robert1 on May 4, 2021 6:15:02 GMT
Politico Playbook is reporting that the Survation poll shows a Tory lead in Hartlepool 50% v 33%
(see Hartlepool by-election thread)
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on May 4, 2021 10:48:56 GMT
Politico Playbook is reporting that the Survation poll shows a Tory lead in Hartlepool 50% v 33%
(see Hartlepool by-election thread)
Well Robert, completely confidentially, between you and me, here and now, whilst the others aren’t listening.... Does this seem accurate from what you know? No pressure 😉
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Post by robert1 on May 4, 2021 13:07:42 GMT
I couldn't possibly comment. Unless I'm on air or writing an analysis.
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,058
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on May 4, 2021 13:12:38 GMT
I couldn't possibly comment. Unless I'm on air or writing an analysis. Nearing the 30th anniversary next year of your big triumph
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Post by robert1 on May 5, 2021 6:05:03 GMT
'Big triumph'- Which one?
Losing my seat or being proved right that the opinion polls persistently undertsated the strength of the Conservative Party? (Sadly the understatement was not enough to save me ) The latter gave rise to the phrase 'shy Tory'.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,607
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Post by The Bishop on May 5, 2021 12:47:15 GMT
1992 was the peak of that phenomenon, and their existence has tended if anything to be overstated in recent years.
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Post by justin124 on May 27, 2021 15:21:10 GMT
Interesting to compare with the survey a year earlier - end of May 2020 which recorded: Con 46% Lab 33% LD 8% Grn 4%
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Post by manchesterman on May 27, 2021 15:54:35 GMT
Tories flipping to Greens eh?
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Post by justin124 on May 29, 2021 12:00:13 GMT
A further Survation survey in today's Daily Mail:
Con 43% Lab 33% LD 10% Grn 5% SNP 5%
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