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Post by casualobserver on Apr 18, 2021 7:58:27 GMT
Of course you are correct in the sense that sub-samples should not be taken too seriously, but this is the third poll in a week to show this "finding". You still don't get it. It isn't that sub-samples "should not be taken too seriously" it is that they are not a "claim" or a "finding" and should never be presented as such. Since they are not weighted they are simply a straw poll and absolutely meaningless when it comes to measuring opinion. Im getting fed up with this having to be repeated again and again. Perhaps we need a thread about the theory of and mathematics behind opinion polls to explain the basics and to explore the validity or otherwise of some of the polling innovations we sometimes see. Given some of the posts we see on this forum we may as well just be analysing chicken entrails to gauge voting intentions.
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Post by andrew111 on Apr 22, 2021 17:56:56 GMT
You still don't get it. It isn't that sub-samples "should not be taken too seriously" it is that they are not a "claim" or a "finding" and should never be presented as such. Since they are not weighted they are simply a straw poll and absolutely meaningless when it comes to measuring opinion. Im getting fed up with this having to be repeated again and again. Perhaps we need a thread about the theory of and mathematics behind opinion polls to explain the basics and to explore the validity or otherwise of some of the polling innovations we sometimes see. Given some of the posts we see on this forum we may as well just be analysing chicken entrails to gauge voting intentions. Chicken entrails are a tried and tested method of prediction. Bayesian chicken entrails are the most reliable
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Post by jm on Apr 30, 2021 20:33:02 GMT
Survation are releasing a new poll tonight. I assume from this tweet that the results may be a surprise - perhaps an increased Tory lead?
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Post by hullenedge on Apr 30, 2021 21:03:44 GMT
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Survation
Apr 30, 2021 21:05:57 GMT
via mobile
Post by jollyroger93 on Apr 30, 2021 21:05:57 GMT
Those changes are wrong however, it’s tories down 1 Labour up 4 compared to the poll last week not with the 10th.
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 8,252
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Post by cogload on Apr 30, 2021 21:07:17 GMT
In 8 and a bit years the Liberal Democrats have progressed from 9% to...9%.
(Get in - the new gold standard ;-)).
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Post by hullenedge on Apr 30, 2021 21:15:10 GMT
Those changes are wrong however, it’s tories down 1 Labour up 4 compared to the poll last week not with the 10th. Corrected!
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Post by lancastrian on Apr 30, 2021 21:55:50 GMT
Those changes are wrong however, it’s tories down 1 Labour up 4 compared to the poll last week not with the 10th. Corrected! There are going to be a lot of ex councillors very unhappy with Boris if that is reflected at the ballot box next week.
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Post by justin124 on Apr 30, 2021 22:09:10 GMT
Survation always gives us UK data so the GB equivalent would be Con 40% Lab 39%.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,371
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Post by Tony Otim on Apr 30, 2021 22:17:17 GMT
There are going to be a lot of ex councillors very unhappy with Boris if that is reflected at the ballot box next week. Except a lot of people will already have voted...
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Post by carlton43 on Apr 30, 2021 22:22:38 GMT
There are going to be a lot of ex councillors very unhappy with Boris if that is reflected at the ballot box next week. Except a lot of people will already have voted... Agreed. Most of the postals will have been done or binned. And postals this time an even higher proportion of the total. And TO might be depressed in all but the increased postal vote. Could be a minor boost for the Conservatives actually, if it helps them to worry and turn out on the day?
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andrewp
Non-Aligned
Posts: 8,982
Member is Online
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Post by andrewp on Apr 30, 2021 22:32:20 GMT
There are going to be a lot of ex councillors very unhappy with Boris if that is reflected at the ballot box next week. Except a lot of people will already have voted... This will presumably be the election with the highest proportion of postal votes ever? The earlier people voted the better for the Conservatives
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Post by justin124 on Apr 30, 2021 23:52:01 GMT
Those who returned their postal votes early are likely to be the more committed voters.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,533
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Post by johng on Apr 30, 2021 23:59:54 GMT
From Twitter:
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,371
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Post by Tony Otim on May 1, 2021 9:06:54 GMT
From Twitter: I really dislike that last question - he's the leader of the country, he's responsible for his own actions.
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Post by No Offence Alan on May 1, 2021 9:28:21 GMT
From Twitter: I really dislike that last question - he's the leader of the country, he's responsible for his own actions. I dislike the use of pie charts.
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Post by gibbon on May 1, 2021 11:07:47 GMT
It will be interesting to see the headlines on The Mail on Sunday tomorrow. Having commissioned this poll will this be on the front page or not? While many people may have voted by post often they are the committed voters for a particular party. Often those who vote (or not) on the day swing the result. Interesting article in The Times today about the turmoil at CCHQ about emails sent to staff and the duty to produce documents and staff being advised they can see independent legal advice. Even if the results on Thursday may give the Tories good news this week it will not take away the problems that the investigation may provide and this may lead to a leadership challenge sooner rather than later.
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Post by carlton43 on May 1, 2021 11:35:43 GMT
Those who returned their postal votes early are likely to be the more committed voters. In my experience and my opinion, people return their postal votes pretty well as soon as they get them. Often on the same day. There is no class of 'people who return their postal votes early' to consider. If one has a postal vote at all one is likely to be more politically committed and more likely to vote, and less likely to change party over the short term, than those without postal votes.
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Post by hullenedge on May 1, 2021 11:39:36 GMT
Those who returned their postal votes early are likely to be the more committed voters. In my experience and my opinion, people return their postal votes pretty well as soon as they get them. Often on the same day. There is no class of 'people who return their postal votes early' to consider. If one has a postal vote at all one is likely to be more politically committed and more likely to vote, and less likely to change party over the short term, than those without postal votes. You're right. Speaking to one of the candidates postal vote applications are well up this time around and many post back upon receipt. The parties have been encouraging their known supporters to vote by post. Bet there's a 60-70% turnout amongst postal voters. On the day voting will be quiet.
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
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Post by timmullen1 on May 1, 2021 12:03:31 GMT
In my experience and my opinion, people return their postal votes pretty well as soon as they get them. Often on the same day. There is no class of 'people who return their postal votes early' to consider. If one has a postal vote at all one is likely to be more politically committed and more likely to vote, and less likely to change party over the short term, than those without postal votes. You're right. Speaking to one of the candidates postal vote applications are well up this time around and many post back upon receipt. The parties have been encouraging their known supporters to vote by post. Bet there's a 60-70% turnout amongst postal voters. On the day voting will be quiet. It’s worth noting that the official line from government and councils has been to vote by post this year as well, which may mean that a large-ish number of new postal voters slightly disrupt the usual pattern of rapid return as they’re not in the habit of PV-ing.
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