johng
Labour
Posts: 4,491
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Post by johng on May 29, 2021 12:08:01 GMT
That's Tories -1, Labour flat and Lib Dems +2 on their previous poll.
The same poll as above:
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Post by justin124 on May 29, 2021 12:15:11 GMT
Survation uses UK - rather than GB - data. The GB equivalent would be Con 44% Lab 34%.
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Post by hullenedge on Jun 4, 2021 15:27:56 GMT
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,491
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Post by johng on Jun 18, 2021 23:49:29 GMT
Surprised this hasn't been posted.
I must say, I think Galloway will do better than 6% based on anecdotal reporting. Still, this isn't good news for Labour (yes, there are many caveats to constituency polling).
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
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Post by timmullen1 on Jun 18, 2021 23:52:16 GMT
Surprised this hasn't been posted. It’s under discussion in the Batley and Spen thread.
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Post by hullenedge on Jul 1, 2021 20:23:33 GMT
Lowest SNP figure for sometime (albeit UK rather than GB).
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Post by hullenedge on Jul 13, 2021 17:18:19 GMT
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Post by robert1 on Jul 14, 2021 4:59:14 GMT
Should probably add SNP 5% (+2)
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
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Post by cogload on Jul 20, 2021 20:11:48 GMT
This has appeared on Politics for All:
Cons 39 (-4). Lab 35 (+3) LD 11 (+2).
Not sure about the rest.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,491
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Post by johng on Jul 20, 2021 20:27:36 GMT
This has appeared on Politics for All: Cons 39 (-4). Lab 35 (+3) LD 11 (+2). Not sure about the rest. ''Survation’s latest political polling, fieldwork 19th-20th July, sees an 11 point Conservative lead a week ago cut to just 4 points.
The Conservatives are today on 39%, down 4 points from last week, and Labour on 35%, up 3 points.''
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Survation
Jul 21, 2021 9:38:42 GMT
via mobile
Post by andrew111 on Jul 21, 2021 9:38:42 GMT
This has appeared on Politics for All: Cons 39 (-4). Lab 35 (+3) LD 11 (+2). Not sure about the rest. ''Survation’s latest political polling, fieldwork 19th-20th July, sees an 11 point Conservative lead a week ago cut to just 4 points.
The Conservatives are today on 39%, down 4 points from last week, and Labour on 35%, up 3 points.''
I wonder if the clear attempt by Johnson to avoid the rules imposed on so many people in the "pingdemic", coupled with the general chaos of "freedom day" will turn out to be a turning point for this hapless government? (or even a watershed, since when you reach a watershed you then go downwards for an extended period). I wonder if Labour can manage to get "the Johnson variant" to stick? Starmer is still not seen as PM and that is their big problem
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jamie
Top Poster
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Post by jamie on Jul 21, 2021 9:52:50 GMT
The Lib Dem recovery in many recent polls should be worrying Labour. As Labour have lost left leaning cultural conservatives to the Conservative Party, their vote looks increasingly ideological similar to that of Lib Dems (the latter also being relatively pro-Starmer and often to the left of Labour voters on policy questions in recent polls). If they are not going to substantially recover with the former, then they really need to be eating into the Lib Dem vote.
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Merseymike
Independent
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Post by Merseymike on Jul 21, 2021 9:56:18 GMT
The Lib Dem recovery in many recent polls should be worrying Labour. As Labour have lost left leaning cultural conservatives to the Conservative Party, their vote looks increasingly ideological similar to that of Lib Dems (the latter also being relatively pro-Starmer and often to the left of Labour voters on policy questions in recent polls). If they are not going to substantially recover with the former, then they really need to be eating into the Lib Dem vote. Yes and no. Labour need a reasonably strong LibDem option to appear credible to wavering Tories who won't vote Labour. The problem Labour has is that it does not appear to be making inroads into the former-Labour voters motivated by Brexit, and that it is not motivating a section of its 2019 membership who are more likely to stay voting Labour if anything, but may well decide not to bother at all.
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Merseymike
Independent
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Post by Merseymike on Jul 21, 2021 9:57:36 GMT
''Survation’s latest political polling, fieldwork 19th-20th July, sees an 11 point Conservative lead a week ago cut to just 4 points.
The Conservatives are today on 39%, down 4 points from last week, and Labour on 35%, up 3 points.''
I wonder if the clear attempt by Johnson to avoid the rules imposed on so many people in the "pingdemic", coupled with the general chaos of "freedom day" will turn out to be a turning point for this hapless government? (or even a watershed, since when you reach a watershed you then go downwards for an extended period). I wonder if Labour can manage to get "the Johnson variant" to stick? Starmer is still not seen as PM and that is their big problem Wait and see if this is not an outlier, though, as the YouGov poll on the same day saw a 13% Tory lead.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jul 21, 2021 10:27:03 GMT
The Lib Dem recovery in many recent polls should be worrying Labour. As Labour have lost left leaning cultural conservatives to the Conservative Party, their vote looks increasingly ideological similar to that of Lib Dems (the latter also being relatively pro-Starmer and often to the left of Labour voters on policy questions in recent polls). If they are not going to substantially recover with the former, then they really need to be eating into the Lib Dem vote. Yes and no. Labour need a reasonably strong LibDem option to appear credible to wavering Tories who won't vote Labour. The problem Labour has is that it does not appear to be making inroads into the former-Labour voters motivated by Brexit, and that it is not motivating a section of its 2019 membership who are more likely to stay voting Labour if anything, but may well decide not to bother at all Like it or not, we aren't in a position to challenge in many Labour seats or Labour targets. (There are also a few Conservative seats where I reckon we'd be a stronger challenge than Labour, but we're in 3rd place so won't). And I think Ed Davey is pretty clear on trying to replicate Ashdown's strategy rather than trying to present himself as an alternative PM/LOTO, so I expect any campaign to reflect that. The danger for Labour would be if a national rise in LD VI ate into Labour among the less well-informed in no-hope areas for us. That's fixable with proper campaigning and dare I say bar charts. Relatively high scores for the Greens would worry me more if I was Starmer - I doubt any of them would vote Conservative so I don't see it peeling off Tory votes in Lab targets, and there are no Con-Green marginals that might help with the HoC arithmetic in the way that Con-LD ones do. 6-7% Green VI looks like about 2-3% lost votes for Labour to me
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Post by justin124 on Jul 21, 2021 10:30:01 GMT
I wonder if the clear attempt by Johnson to avoid the rules imposed on so many people in the "pingdemic", coupled with the general chaos of "freedom day" will turn out to be a turning point for this hapless government? (or even a watershed, since when you reach a watershed you then go downwards for an extended period). I wonder if Labour can manage to get "the Johnson variant" to stick? Starmer is still not seen as PM and that is their big problem Wait and see if this is not an outlier, though, as the YouGov poll on the same day saw a 13% Tory lead. The Yougov fieldwork is a few days older though. Survation uses UK - rather than GB - data. On a GB basis ,therefore, the figures would be Con 40% Lab 36% LD 11%.A 36% GB poll figure matches what Labour managed under Blair in 2005 and is a bit hihjer than obtained under Kinnock in 1992.Beyond that , the loss of Scotland post-2015 has effectively chipped circa 2% off Labour's GB vote share - so that 36% today is effectively the equivalent of 38% pre-2015 as far as the party's strength in England & Wales is concerned.
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Post by gibbon on Jul 21, 2021 10:36:16 GMT
There does seem to be some fluctuation in the polls. Freedom Day and the pingdemic have not gone well and we await to see (if any) the effect of the Cummings interview on public opinion. Looking at some comments on Conservative Home all is not well in the Conservative Party with the CRG on the attack. Brexit is starting to have an effect with Archie Norman (former Conservative MP) complaining about Marks and Spencer's problems supplying food to their shops in Northern Ireland. The EU are unlikely to agree any dramatic change to the protocol unless there is something in return, but what? Until the pandemic is finally over any rush to have a General Election might not go down well. Edward Heath tried that in February 1974 with the miners strike and lost. I suspect that future polls will gradually show a drop in Conservative support with an increase in support for the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party upsetting MPs in blue wall seats.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jul 21, 2021 10:40:47 GMT
''Survation’s latest political polling, fieldwork 19th-20th July, sees an 11 point Conservative lead a week ago cut to just 4 points.
The Conservatives are today on 39%, down 4 points from last week, and Labour on 35%, up 3 points.''
I wonder if the clear attempt by Johnson to avoid the rules imposed on so many people in the "pingdemic", coupled with the general chaos of "freedom day" will turn out to be a turning point for this hapless government? (or even a watershed, since when you reach a watershed you then go downwards for an extended period). I wonder if Labour can manage to get "the Johnson variant" to stick? Starmer is still not seen as PM and that is their big problem I still think the turning point in terms of faith in Johnson and his party was Cummingsgate, which saw massive Tory lead dissipate to zero or occasional slight Labour leads. Vaccine reversed that again but I think it's conditional approval, sort of "pay by results". My hunch is that vaccine bounce, lockdown easing and economic recovery is a bit factored in now and liable to unwind if not followed up with additional goodies. The "chaos" of "freedom day" is just niggles really, but it does take a bit of shine off something people were taking for granted.
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Post by justin124 on Jul 21, 2021 10:42:57 GMT
Yes and no. Labour need a reasonably strong LibDem option to appear credible to wavering Tories who won't vote Labour. The problem Labour has is that it does not appear to be making inroads into the former-Labour voters motivated by Brexit, and that it is not motivating a section of its 2019 membership who are more likely to stay voting Labour if anything, but may well decide not to bother at all Like it or not, we aren't in a position to challenge in many Labour seats or Labour targets. (There are also a few Conservative seats where I reckon we'd be a stronger challenge than Labour, but we're in 3rd place so won't). And I think Ed Davey is pretty clear on trying to replicate Ashdown's strategy rather than trying to present himself as an alternative PM/LOTO, so I expect any campaign to reflect that. The danger for Labour would be if a national rise in LD VI ate into Labour among the less well-informed in no-hope areas for us. That's fixable with proper campaigning and dare I say bar charts. Relatively high scores for the Greens would worry me more if I was Starmer - I doubt any of them would vote Conservative so I don't see it peeling off Tory votes in Lab targets, and there are no Con-Green marginals that might help with the HoC arithmetic in the way that Con-LD ones do. 6-7% Green VI looks like about 2-3% lost votes for Labour to me I rather agree re- the Green vote , but in reality I would be surprised to see the Greens exceed 3% in a GE - particularly if national polls tightened in the way being suggested by this Survation poll. Any problems with the LDs are likely to be confined to specific constituencies - particularly a handful of seats where a 2019 LD second place is likely to have been an aberration due to local factors relevant at the time but no longer so. I would expect Labour to recover its position as the main challenger in Finchley & Golders Green and the Cities of London & Westminster. The seat of Wimbledon is much more difficult to call - in that the LDs came very close there in 2019 yet Labour did hold the seat 1997 - 2005 and performed strongly there in 2017.Personally I fail to see the case for Labour voters switching in that seat to LDs for tactical reasons.
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jamie
Top Poster
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Post by jamie on Jul 21, 2021 10:42:59 GMT
Labour need a reasonably strong LibDem option to appear credible to wavering Tories who won't vote Labour.The problem Labour has is that it does not appear to be making inroads into the former-Labour voters motivated by Brexit, and that it is not motivating a section of its 2019 membership who are more likely to stay voting Labour if anything, but may well decide not to bother at all. The problem is that the sort of person who would be willing to vote Lib Dem but not Labour nationally is increasingly the sort of person who Labour needs to be winning over directly now they’ve lost so many other voters to the Conservatives. For example, in 2017 Corbyn’s Labour got 25% of the1/9th most ‘Libertarian right’ section of the electorate, and Starmer’s Labour seems like it will be even more reliant on winning over these traditionally not Labour voters.
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