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Post by Andrew_S on May 18, 2019 11:25:11 GMT
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Post by pragmaticidealist on May 18, 2019 11:31:26 GMT
Chisholm (previously called as a Labor gain) is now too-close-to-call according to ABC, with the ALP on 50.2%.
Seems likely that Shorten will announce his resignation in his speech tonight.
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Post by Andrew_S on May 18, 2019 11:36:11 GMT
Bob Katter to prop up the government again?
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Post by uhurasmazda on May 18, 2019 11:41:45 GMT
What if? What if the pollsters were broadly correct? What if there was a pro-Labour majority gradually shortening during the campaign? What if the campaign dynamics tended to alter the TO imperative from left a bit to right? What if narrowing Labour lead overhauled by late, stronger desire to TO in the right? The polls didn't show a change in primary votes over the campaign, and in fact an exit poll showed Labor on 52% of the TPP. If there was a turn against Labor among the voters - and I'm not sure there was - it happened in the booth. Also, turnout is largely irrelevant due to compulsory voting, and the people who flout that law tend to flout it fairly consistently. And in terms of primary vote, the Coalition have done about 4% better than their polls showed while Labor did about 4% worse, which couldn't be explained by any sort of turnout differential because you're only ever going to have small fluctuations in that number (1 or 2 per cent). Polling error seems therefore to be the most obvious explanation - however, there have been noises about Labor perhaps doing better in pre-polls (most of which haven't yet come through because they take longer to count) due to the fact that young people and poor people are most likely to be busy on a Saturday and need to vote early. This is probably wishful thinking, though. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on May 18, 2019 11:42:15 GMT
What if? What if the pollsters were broadly correct? What if there was a pro-Labour majority gradually shortening during the campaign? What if the campaign dynamics tended to alter the TO imperative from left a bit to right? What if narrowing Labour lead overhauled by late, stronger desire to TO in the right? If this is the case then Labor may expect to recover their position a little bit in the pre polls, but I doubt those will be notably different. |
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Post by heslingtonian on May 18, 2019 11:49:26 GMT
Bob Katter to prop up the government again? If the Liberals hold their lead in Wentworth, Macquarie and Swan where they are currently leading that gets them to a majority so no Independents may be needed. |
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Post by heslingtonian on May 18, 2019 12:00:01 GMT
Swan called for Liberals. 2 more seats needed for a majority
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Post by Andrew_S on May 18, 2019 12:00:26 GMT
Australian betting company Sportsbet paid out on a Labor victory a few days ago.
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Post by Andrew_S on May 18, 2019 12:34:18 GMT
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Post by finsobruce on May 18, 2019 12:41:04 GMT
Australian betting company Sportsbet paid out on a Labor victory a few days ago. That wasn't very wise. |
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Post by pragmaticidealist on May 18, 2019 12:54:26 GMT
Coalition on 75 seats with Boothby, Chisholm, Cowan and Wentworth in doubt. The Coalition are ahead in the first two while Wentworth is a bit all over the place, but the independent Phelps is ahead at the moment. Labor slightly ahead in Cowan.
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
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Post by Richard Allen on May 18, 2019 13:00:32 GMT
Iron rule of Australian politics. Never underestimate the ability of the ALP to screw things up.
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823 
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Post by timmullen1 on May 18, 2019 13:02:32 GMT
Antony Albanese on Nine News is saying pre-polls in Macquarie (currently being given to the Libs) are breaking heavily Labor but are not yet in the AEC computer; he’s sounding pretty convinced (and he is supposed to be their numbers expert) that they’ll retain that.
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Post by carlton43 on May 18, 2019 13:06:07 GMT
What if? What if the pollsters were broadly correct? What if there was a pro-Labour majority gradually shortening during the campaign? What if the campaign dynamics tended to alter the TO imperative from left a bit to right? What if narrowing Labour lead overhauled by late, stronger desire to TO in the right? The polls didn't show a change in primary votes over the campaign, and in fact an exit poll showed Labor on 52% of the TPP. If there was a turn against Labor among the voters - and I'm not sure there was - it happened in the booth. Also, turnout is largely irrelevant due to compulsory voting, and the people who flout that law tend to flout it fairly consistently. And in terms of primary vote, the Coalition have done about 4% better than their polls showed while Labor did about 4% worse, which couldn't be explained by any sort of turnout differential because you're only ever going to have small fluctuations in that number (1 or 2 per cent). Polling error seems therefore to be the most obvious explanation - however, there have been noises about Labor perhaps doing better in pre-polls (most of which haven't yet come through because they take longer to count) due to the fact that young people and poor people are most likely to be busy on a Saturday and need to vote early. This is probably wishful thinking, though. OK. Convinced. I had carelessly overlooked the compulsory element. I have taken down my post. It must be poor polling. Or lots of people like me who always lie when polled as a policy. |
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Post by Andrew_S on May 18, 2019 13:13:16 GMT
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Post by timrollpickering on May 18, 2019 13:23:39 GMT
Senate results trickling through.
New South Wales:
Project 3 Liberals, 1 National, 2 Labor, 1 Green. Liberals and Labor each gain 1 from One Nation and the Liberal Democrats.
Victoria:
Project: 2 Liberals, 2 Labor, 1 Green, 1 in doubt with Liberals in the lead. Possible Liberal gain 1 from Derryn Hinch's Justice Party which has definitely lost.
Queensland:
Project: 2 LNP, 1 Labor, 1 Green. 2 in doubt with One Nation, Labor and LNP all having about 0.6 of a quota to spare. The two seats are notionally defended by Labor and One Nation, though the latter got replaced in the citizenship crisis and is held by Fraser Anning's lot. Anning is well out of it, beaten by all the parties above and the UAP, Katter's lot and even the pot heads.
Western Australia:
3 Liberals, 2 Labor, 1 Green. (I think this result in WA is the most frequent for any state in elections.) Liberals gain from One Nation.
South Australia:
3 Liberals, 2 Labor, 1 Green. Liberals gain from Family First/Australian Conservatives (confirming a gain previously made by defection *), Labor gain from Nick Xenophon Team/Centre Alliance.
(* Family First merged into the Australian Conservatives in 2017, with the sitting FF Senator Bob Day disqualified at the same time. A countback elected Lucy Gichuhi but she declined to join the Conservatives and subsequently joined the Liberals. However she was ranked 4th on the Liberal ticket for this election.)
Tasmania:
2 Labor, 2 Liberals, 1 Green, 1 Jacqui Lambie Network. Liberals gain 1 from Labor, Jacqui Lambie holds/retakes the seat she won in 2016 but lost in the citizenship crisis with the successor going over to the Nationals (who have not polled well in Tasmania).
Australian Capital Territory:
1 Labor, 1 Liberal. No change.
Northern Territory
1 Country Liberal, 1 Labor. No change.
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Post by timrollpickering on May 18, 2019 13:38:21 GMT
Bill Hewson Shorten has conceded defeat and announced he's resigning as Labor leader, though staying as an MP.
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Post by pragmaticidealist on May 18, 2019 13:44:56 GMT
Bill Hewson Shorten has conceded defeat and announced he's resigning as Labor leader, though staying as an MP. Hewson survived for a year after that defeat, but it was his first election as leader. Incidentally the result will be 80-65 to the Coalition if all of the doubtful results fall their way, i.e. an exact reversal of 1993. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,036
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Post by Sibboleth on May 18, 2019 14:06:53 GMT
The ALP should have already learned by now that Australia's culture war presents not opportunities but the opposite. A grimly predictable sort of electoral upset; the sort where everything has a certain hideous logic. Don't even seem to have been close in the places they thought they could flip that way, well done, very well done.
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Post by matureleft on May 18, 2019 14:36:42 GMT
It occurs to me that this is quite a good demonstration of how hard it is to run strongly on climate change in a democratic society. The Greens made no progress, Labour was comfortably the more supportive of the two major parties on this issue and gained nothing from that stance (and probably lost ground in mining areas in part through that). Morrison apparently fondled a lump of coal in a recent speech...!
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