Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on May 18, 2019 14:45:23 GMT
It occurs to me that this is quite a good demonstration of how hard it is to run strongly on climate change in a democratic society. The Greens made no progress, Labour was comfortably the more supportive of the two major parties on this issue and gained nothing from that stance (and probably lost ground in mining areas in part through that). Morrison apparently fondled a lump of coal in a recent speech...! An argument exists that the politics of the environment are too important to be Political and that there's an urgent need to find a way out of what has turned into a very costly - for the environment - trap. It actually isn't as hard as often assumed to get Country People and people in resource dependent regions to support policies that will benefit (or harm less) the environment - some very successful instances of that in Britain actually - but only when approached on their terms. Often if it becomes a matter of party politics, then hackles rise and people dig in. Of course dealing with this problem is going to be particularly difficult in Australia for various reasons, but things are too serious to not at least try. Not that I'm optimistic. |
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mboy
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Post by mboy on May 18, 2019 14:45:50 GMT
The ALP should have already learned by now that Australia's culture war presents not opportunities but the opposite. A grimly predictable sort of electoral upset; the sort where everything has a certain hideous logic. Don't even seem to have been close in the places they thought they could flip that way, well done, very well done. A lesson the US Democratic Party needs to learn quickly... |
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Post by Andrew_S on May 18, 2019 14:57:37 GMT
I haven't checked yet but it'll be interesting to see if the Australian Labor Party piled up votes in its safe seats in Melbourne and Sydney, ie. got a swing where it didn't need it.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on May 18, 2019 15:30:16 GMT
It occurs to me that this is quite a good demonstration of how hard it is to run strongly on climate change in a democratic society. The Greens made no progress, Labour was comfortably the more supportive of the two major parties on this issue and gained nothing from that stance (and probably lost ground in mining areas in part through that). Morrison apparently fondled a lump of coal in a recent speech...! An argument exists that the politics of the environment are too important to be Political and that there's an urgent need to find a way out of what has turned into a very costly - for the environment - trap. It actually isn't as hard as often assumed to get Country People and people in resource dependent regions to support policies that will benefit (or harm less) the environment - some very successful instances of that in Britain actually - but only when approached on their terms. Often if it becomes a matter of party politics, then hackles rise and people dig in. Of course dealing with this problem is going to be particularly difficult in Australia for various reasons, but things are too serious to not at least try. Not that I'm optimistic. Interesting that the two independents (Indi and Warringah) that won unexpectedly have both stressed ScoMo needs to go much further on environmental policy to earn their support. And on the subject of Independents the Liberals have just moved into the lead in Wentworth (Turnbull’s old electorate). |
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Post by edgbaston on May 18, 2019 15:32:52 GMT
I haven't checked yet but it'll be interesting to see if the Australian Labor Party piled up votes in its safe seats in Melbourne and Sydney, ie. got a swing where it didn't need it. This must be true unless the polling is just complete garbage. |
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Post by finsobruce on May 18, 2019 15:38:12 GMT
The ALP should have already learned by now that Australia's culture war presents not opportunities but the opposite. A grimly predictable sort of electoral upset; the sort where everything has a certain hideous logic. Don't even seem to have been close in the places they thought they could flip that way, well done, very well done. A lesson the US Democratic Party needs to learn quickly... And not just them. |
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timmullen1
Labour
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Post by timmullen1 on May 18, 2019 15:41:48 GMT
I haven't checked yet but it'll be interesting to see if the Australian Labor Party piled up votes in its safe seats in Melbourne and Sydney, ie. got a swing where it didn't need it. This must be true unless the polling is just complete garbage. At a brief glance it does seem to look a bit of that but also the big swings have been in the “safe” Liberal seats (3.5% in Bennelong for example, but still leaving John Alexander on a 12.5% margin). |
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Post by heslingtonian on May 18, 2019 15:47:49 GMT
An argument exists that the politics of the environment are too important to be Political and that there's an urgent need to find a way out of what has turned into a very costly - for the environment - trap. It actually isn't as hard as often assumed to get Country People and people in resource dependent regions to support policies that will benefit (or harm less) the environment - some very successful instances of that in Britain actually - but only when approached on their terms. Often if it becomes a matter of party politics, then hackles rise and people dig in. Of course dealing with this problem is going to be particularly difficult in Australia for various reasons, but things are too serious to not at least try. Not that I'm optimistic. Interesting that the two independents (Indi and Warringah) that won unexpectedly have both stressed ScoMo needs to go much further on environmental policy to earn their support. And on the subject of Independents the Liberals have just moved into the lead in Wentworth (Turnbull’s old electorate). I don’t think Morrison is going to need to worry about these guys for the moment. He’s already got 74 seats and the Liberals are ahead in four of the five outstanding seats. They only need 76 for a majority |
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Post by Antiochian on May 18, 2019 15:54:38 GMT
It occurs to me that this is quite a good demonstration of how hard it is to run strongly on climate change in a democratic society. The Greens made no progress, Labour was comfortably the more supportive of the two major parties on this issue and gained nothing from that stance (and probably lost ground in mining areas in part through that). Morrison apparently fondled a lump of coal in a recent speech...! An argument exists that the politics of the environment are too important to be Political and that there's an urgent need to find a way out of what has turned into a very costly - for the environment - trap. It actually isn't as hard as often assumed to get Country People and people in resource dependent regions to support policies that will benefit (or harm less) the environment - some very successful instances of that in Britain actually - but only when approached on their terms. Often if it becomes a matter of party politics, then hackles rise and people dig in. Of course dealing with this problem is going to be particularly difficult in Australia for various reasons, but things are too serious to not at least try. Not that I'm optimistic. Even though Australia may be continent-sized it own domestic policies won't revert some of things that harm its environment. To call a spade a spade the resurgence of the hole in the ozone layer is due to China's blatant flaunting of thirty years of improvements in CFC usage.... |
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timmullen1
Labour
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Post by timmullen1 on May 18, 2019 15:56:22 GMT
Interesting that the two independents (Indi and Warringah) that won unexpectedly have both stressed ScoMo needs to go much further on environmental policy to earn their support. And on the subject of Independents the Liberals have just moved into the lead in Wentworth (Turnbull’s old electorate). I don’t think Morrison is going to need to worry about these guys for the moment. He’s already got 74 seats and the Liberals are ahead in four of the five outstanding seats. They only need 76 for a majority It was more a point that two candidates running on explicitly pro-environment policies had won so, outside of Queensland with the Adani/Carmichael maybe the position isn’t as harmful as had been suggested. |
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Post by Andrew_S on May 18, 2019 15:58:46 GMT
Tasmania seems to swing against incumbents almost on principle, regardless of the particular circumstances of the election.
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Post by heslingtonian on May 18, 2019 16:00:26 GMT
Tasmania seems to swing against incumbents almost on principle, regardless of the particular circumstances of the election. Clearly very demanding voters there |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on May 18, 2019 16:01:50 GMT
Neither candidate is a member of the ALP, neither seat is winnable for the ALP, neither seat has much in common with the seats that the ALP has to win a good share of in order to win a majority. But all that misses the point: my perspective here is driven more by concern for the environment than concern for the ALP or the wider Australian Left.
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Post by Merseymike on May 18, 2019 16:02:44 GMT
Another case of opinion poll mistakes.....really do wonder how many people are just not prepared to tell the truth or really don't decide until they are in the voting booth?
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on May 18, 2019 16:02:46 GMT
Tasmania seems to swing against incumbents almost on principle, regardless of the particular circumstances of the election. Turnbull's style went down pretty badly there, the particular tone of the campaign will also have had an impact. |
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Post by Andrew_S on May 18, 2019 16:04:55 GMT
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Post by pragmaticidealist on May 18, 2019 16:16:20 GMT
Hunter is potentially worth keeping an eye on, as Antony Green said earlier. There's an outside chance that One Nation could get into second place, which would put the seat into play as the Nationals are preferencing them above Labor. www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2019/guide/hunt |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on May 18, 2019 17:00:33 GMT
How are the Hunter Region seats swinging? Would show how much of an issue the environment was if we compare them to Queensland, particularly the mining areas of the state.
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on May 18, 2019 18:22:03 GMT
How are the Hunter Region seats swinging? Would show how much of an issue the environment was if we compare them to Queensland, particularly the mining areas of the state. Obviously counting has a long way to go, but -10.2 in Hunter, -6.0 in Paterson, +0.2 in Newcastle, and -5.8 in Shortland. |
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cogload
Lib Dem
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Post by cogload on May 18, 2019 18:27:27 GMT
Well that's the Murray Darling f***ed
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