Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 18, 2019 10:47:16 GMT
A rare bright spot for Labor as it looks like they have a chance of gaining Boothby, a long time target in Adelaide which was perceived to be ok for Liberals before election day.
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Post by heslingtonian on May 18, 2019 10:48:16 GMT
I wonder if Abbott will be recruited by the next Conservative Leader to help in some role with trade ties between the UK and Australia post-Brexit in the event that the Liberals hang on? Most of the ERG crowd appear to love Abbott.
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Post by pragmaticidealist on May 18, 2019 10:49:14 GMT
Eden-Monaro placed back into the doubtful category...
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Post by heslingtonian on May 18, 2019 10:52:27 GMT
This feels a bit like the British 1992 General Election. A new geeky Centre-Right Leader getting an unexpected lift and defying the polls, Labor failing with a “one more heave” strategy, the second defeat for a leader who never quite sealed the deal with his electorate. For Basildon, read Braddon.
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Post by Andrew_S on May 18, 2019 11:03:46 GMT
The Coalition was 10/1 in the betting markets a matter of hours ago.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on May 18, 2019 11:04:07 GMT
Why wasn’t Shorten given the push after losing in 2016? It’s not like he was ever an electoral asset.
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Post by heslingtonian on May 18, 2019 11:08:47 GMT
Why wasn’t Shorten given the push after losing in 2016? It’s not like he was ever an electoral asset. I doubt the good burghers of the ALP will be quite so forgiving after this result |
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Post by timrollpickering on May 18, 2019 11:10:49 GMT
Why wasn’t Shorten given the push after losing in 2016? It’s not like he was ever an electoral asset. It is very rare to return to government after a single term out - I think you have to go back to 1931 for the last - and getting the Coalition right up to the edge was meeting expectations. Also one of the last actions of the Rudd leadership was to tighten up the spill rules, making it harder to launch a challenge. |
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Post by pragmaticidealist on May 18, 2019 11:11:28 GMT
Why wasn’t Shorten given the push after losing in 2016? It’s not like he was ever an electoral asset. Virtually no one expected Labor to win in 2016 and they came closer to doing so than was the general consensus. Generally leaders are given two gos at leading their party to victory anyway. |
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
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Post by cogload on May 18, 2019 11:11:48 GMT
ABC projecting the Coalition as 4 short.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on May 18, 2019 11:12:42 GMT
Why wasn’t Shorten given the push after losing in 2016? It’s not like he was ever an electoral asset. I think he’s been somewhat unlucky; he likely would have beaten Abbott in 2016 but their strategy was thrown by Turnbull replacing him, and repeat with Morrison replacing Turnbull. The only other thing slightly in his defence is three years ago everybody assumed Clive Palmer was finished, now the UAP are effectively kingmakers in Queensland taking Labor Primary votes but transferring preferences to the LNP. |
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Post by jollyroger93 on May 18, 2019 11:15:33 GMT
Penny Wong putting a brave face on it but you can tell she's utterly devastated and fizzing with this result.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 18, 2019 11:17:10 GMT
Why wasn’t Shorten given the push after losing in 2016? It’s not like he was ever an electoral asset. Overperformance from the immediate post-Abbott polling, when Turnbull looked set for a big win. Momentum appeared to be with Labor, and stayed that way until the last few weeks when the 2pp started coming into the 51-49 range. |
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Post by heslingtonian on May 18, 2019 11:18:29 GMT
ABC saying Liberals are 3 short and they’ve not yet declared the safe Liberal seat of Swan and Turnbull’s old seat of Wentworth where the Liberals are now ahead. Looks ominous for the ALP
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Post by bungle on May 18, 2019 11:19:00 GMT
Why wasn’t Shorten given the push after losing in 2016? It’s not like he was ever an electoral asset. Virtually no one expected Labor to win in 2016 and they came closer to doing so than was the general consensus. Generally leaders are given two gos at leading their party to victory anyway. Bill Shorten - the Neil Kinnock of Australian politics. As was said above this has a very 1992 feeling for Labor. At least he didn’t claim “we’re alright”. |
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Post by Andrew_S on May 18, 2019 11:19:27 GMT
The polls have been terrible, especially in Queensland where they were predicting a 6% swing to Labor until about a week ago, and a 2% swing to Labor since then.
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Post by heslingtonian on May 18, 2019 11:19:39 GMT
Based on current projections there is so far no net change in seats for the Coalition, which would put them just short of a majority. The Coalition is performing best in states which voted to retain the monarchy by a higher margin in the 1999 referendum (Queensland and Tasmania). Looks like Her Maj is safe for the next three years in Australia |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 18, 2019 11:20:40 GMT
ABC saying Liberals are 3 short and they’ve not yet declared the safe Liberal seat of Swan and Turnbull’s old seat of Wentworth where the Liberals are now ahead. Looks ominous for the ALP Swan is a marginal and big ALP target, but the early numbers look good for Lib. |
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iain
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Post by iain on May 18, 2019 11:21:32 GMT
ABC News saying that based on current figures it is not possible for Labor to form majority government and that the most likely outcome is Coalition government, possibly as a majority government. In Queensland: - 2 LNP gains from Labor: Longman and Herbert
- 2 Labor seats still counting that are very marginal: Lilley and Blair (leaning Labor)
In New South Wales: - 1 Independent gain from Liberal: Warringah
- 1 Liberal gain from Labor: Linsay
- 1 Labor seat still counting that is very marginal: Macquarie (leaning Liberal)
- 1 Independent seat still counting that is very marginal: Wentworth (leaning Liberal)
- 1 Labor gain from Liberal: Gilmore
In Victoria: - 4 Labor gains from Liberal: Dunkley, Chisholm, Hotham and Corangamite
In Tasmania: - 2 Liberal gains from Labor: Braddon and Bass
In South Australia: - 1 Labor gain from Liberal: Boothby
Hotham was already held by Labor. So were Dunkley and Corangamite very narrowly, though they had outgoing Liberal MPs. |
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
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Post by cogload on May 18, 2019 11:23:47 GMT
Examples of where Pollsters call it wrong...part 1001.
Australia (federal).
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