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Post by pragmaticidealist on May 18, 2019 9:24:33 GMT
Wentworth isn't looking optimistic for the Liberals either. Dutton is looking steady in Dickson.
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Post by pragmaticidealist on May 18, 2019 9:28:59 GMT
Green points out something that's been concerning me for a bit. Coalition roughly 41-33 ahead in the projected national vote, with fairly meaningful percentage of 10% or so in. Projected 2PP is about 52-48 to the Coaliton.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 18, 2019 9:32:20 GMT
Very weird and enormous swing to LNP in the assumed safe Queensland Labor seat of Blair.
If ALP numbers don't improve in QLD they will be very reliant on good results in Vic and WA.
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Post by pragmaticidealist on May 18, 2019 9:34:26 GMT
Very weird and enormous swing to LNP in the assumed safe Queensland Labor seat of Blair. If ALP numbers don't improve in QLD they will be very reliant on good results in Vic and WA. Pre-polls (which are at a record number this year) could well be having an effect on things. Liberals holding Capricornia on what appears to be a huge swing. |
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Post by timrollpickering on May 18, 2019 9:36:19 GMT
The Greens are advancing in Melbourne (already held and where the ALP candidate was disendorsed) doing the odd thing of dropping first preferences but increasing 2CPs in Macnamara (ex Melbourne Ports) but going backwards in the other inner Melbourne seats. This includes Wills, Bob Hawke's old seat.
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
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Post by cogload on May 18, 2019 9:36:45 GMT
Abbott's gone in Warringah.
Right mixed bag so far.
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Post by pragmaticidealist on May 18, 2019 9:38:17 GMT
Key Queensland seats of Bonner, Petrie and Flynn showing significant swings to the LNP also.
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Post by pragmaticidealist on May 18, 2019 9:41:46 GMT
Cowper is retained by the Nationals, where former independent MP Rob Oakeshott was hoping to gain.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 18, 2019 9:44:20 GMT
Green calls Warringah for Steggall. Bye bye Tony!
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Post by timrollpickering on May 18, 2019 9:44:54 GMT
Very weird and enormous swing to LNP in the assumed safe Queensland Labor seat of Blair. Both ALP and LNP are down on first preferences with a couple of Independents, UAP, DLP and Fraser Anning's Lot all standing for the first time and polling over 11% so far. Family First, the Liberal Democrats and two other Independents aren't standing this time, leave 5.4% up for grabs. One Nation have also increased over 2%. This may be part of a wider trend of smaller party votes increasing and driving some of the odder shifts. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 18, 2019 9:46:03 GMT
Labor's results in QLD looking awful - Blair and Lilley, neither on the radar, both possibly at risk.
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,142
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Post by cogload on May 18, 2019 9:58:46 GMT
The Coalition aren't going to squeak home here are they?
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Post by pragmaticidealist on May 18, 2019 10:00:21 GMT
Coalition currently slightly ahead on actual seats being given away, ahead in a lot of the doubtful seats and WA still to come in (where the Coalition will take the lion's share even if Labor outperform expectations).
It's difficult to see how Labor win a majority.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 18, 2019 10:02:52 GMT
The Coalition aren't going to squeak home here are they? Quite possibly, I suspect they will be ahead on these numbers but maybe not with enough guaranteed seats to declare victory tonight. |
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mondialito
Labour
Everything is horribly, brutally possible.
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Post by mondialito on May 18, 2019 10:05:14 GMT
Penny Wong looking quite glum on ABC.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 18, 2019 10:29:02 GMT
Ex-nationals leader Barnaby Joyce quite conspicuously drunk on ABC.
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iain
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Post by iain on May 18, 2019 10:29:52 GMT
Labor is really doing appallingly in Queensland, and the early numbers in NT are very poor.
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Post by bungle on May 18, 2019 10:41:34 GMT
This could be a superb outcome for the Liberals in more ways than the bare result, even if they are 1 or 2 short overall.
Depending on final numbers they could well get through a full 3 years without the ever present threat of spills now they have changed their rules. Ok, leaders can always be pushed somehow but it has always bemused me how easy it is to call a spill in Australian politics. Very destabilising for both parties and I sense the electorate are pretty unimpressed with the shenanigans of the last 10 years.
Similarly with Abbott gone, his role as the conservative totem will put that wing on the back foot even with Dutton back. Already we can see a narrative emerging around making the party less strident about some issues that are clearly costing it votes in metropolitan areas. I see Julie Bishop is already gleefully pushing this line while sticking the knife into Tony.
Notwithstanding the special circumstances of Warringah, the inability to recapture Wentworth (on present projections) shows their weakness in this spot. It should matter so it will give any government more room for manoeuvre around some issues than Turnbull could ever have managed.
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Post by pragmaticidealist on May 18, 2019 10:43:55 GMT
ABC News currently reporting: L/NP: 63 LAB: 60 Grn: 1 Oth: 5 In doubt: 22 Many of those "in doubt" will be safe Coalition seats in WA where no figures are in yet. |
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Post by heslingtonian on May 18, 2019 10:45:51 GMT
Is it too early to predict the end of Shorten?
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