Australian federal election, 2019

[timmullen1]

May 24, 2019 15:31:01 GMT timrollpickering said:

IIUC the in doubt column is automatically determined by a narrow band of margin unless Antony Green overrides the system.

Yes, but the fact it’s one of only two electorates the AEC haven’t moved away from their “close seats” category suggests it is too close to give away yet.

[mrhell]

May 18, 2019 12:41:04 GMT finsobruce said:

May 18, 2019 12:00:26 GMT Andrew_S said:

Australian betting company Sportsbet paid out on a Labor victory a few days ago.

That wasn't very wise.

It will be a small lose and a bi of publicity.

[timmullen1]

May 26, 2019 1:57:30 GMT mrhell said:

May 18, 2019 12:41:04 GMT finsobruce said:

That wasn't very wise.

It will be a small lose and a bi of publicity.

Circa A$1million or £540,000 apparently.

[finsobruce]

May 26, 2019 2:10:45 GMT timmullen1 said:

May 26, 2019 1:57:30 GMT mrhell said:

It will be a small lose and a bi of publicity.

Circa A$1million or £540,000 apparently.

Which could have been spent on the NHS!!!

Oh, wait....

[timrollpickering]

The Labor leadership nominations have closed and Anthony Albanese is the only candidate.

[The Bishop]

Ah, since coronations have such a good record in the past.....

[Andrew_S]

This is what the odds were like when the polls closed in eastern Australia:

[timmullen1]

At some point today the AEC will be formally declaring the first two seats, Mitchell and Blaxland both in NSW.

[robert1]

According to ABC, ALP now in the lead in Macquarie

[Davıd Boothroyd]

AEC shows the ALP have a 67 vote lead in Macquarie. Still 2,252 more votes to process.

Blaxland and Mitchell have now been declared so it's a tie in the House.

[timmullen1]

New England, Bennelong and Berowra, all in NSW, to be declared today, so two Liberals and a National.

[timrollpickering]

There is a reason why the new Labor leader is widely called "Albo":

[timmullen1]

Labor now ahead by 282 with 964 outstanding in Macquarie. That looks to be the only one still remotely in doubt, although the AEC has Bass and Lilley as “close seats”.

[edgbaston]

May 29, 2019 10:12:10 GMT timmullen1 said:

Labor now ahead by 282 with 964 outstanding in Macquarie. That looks to be the only one still remotely in doubt, although the AEC has Bass and Lilley as “close seats”.

Sorry is this election still ongoing??

[Davıd Boothroyd]

The count always goes on for at least a fortnight after polling day, with postal votes and early votes being the last to be counted.

If I read the figures right, in Bass the Liberal lead of 585 votes is more than the number of outstanding votes to count so it's not going to change.

[timmullen1]

May 29, 2019 10:52:09 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

The count always goes on for at least a fortnight after polling day, with postal votes and early votes being the last to be counted.

If I read the figures right, in Bass the Liberal lead of 585 votes is more than the number of outstanding votes to count so it's not going to change.

Voters have until Friday to return postal ballots.

And, yes, I figured the same about Bass, which may be why Antony Green’s moved it back to a Liberal gain.

[mboy]

So what's the current majority?

[timmullen1]

May 29, 2019 11:07:15 GMT mboy said:

So what's the current majority?

Predicted, assuming Macquarie holds for Labor:

77 Coalition
67 Labor
5 Independents
1 Green

[timrollpickering]

You're missing one seat which goes to Labor.

Of the five you've got listed as Independent, one is Centre Alliance who also have two Senators and another is Katter's Australia Party with state parliamentarians and has had defecting Senators passing through.

Note that in Australia the government is expected to supply the Speaker which cuts one off their numbers in floor votes with no arrangements to pair that out (whereas the Senate presiding office has a deliberative but no casting vote). Occasionally in hung state & territory parliaments the Speakership has been given to an Independent as part of a supply & confidence arrangement (very occasionally an opposition member gets picked off) but it's much rarer for governments with small majorities to top up by getting a crossbencher into the chair.

[timmullen1]

May 29, 2019 12:01:12 GMT timrollpickering said:

You're missing one seat which goes to Labor.

Of the five you've got listed as Independent, one is Centre Alliance who also have two Senators and another is Katter's Australia Party with state parliamentarians and has had defecting Senators passing through.

Note that in Australia the government is expected to supply the Speaker which cuts one off their numbers in floor votes with no arrangements to pair that out (whereas the Senate presiding office has a deliberative but no casting vote). Occasionally in hung state & territory parliaments the Speakership has been given to an Independent as part of a supply & confidence arrangement (very occasionally an opposition member gets picked off) but it's much rarer for governments with small majorities to top up by getting a crossbencher into the chair.

I suspect that one seat is Macquarie then, as Antony Green has “given away” all the others.