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Post by timrollpickering on May 21, 2019 21:28:02 GMT
The ABC website earlier moved Boothby from in doubt to Liberal retain and has now moved Chisholm in the same way *, thus giving the Coalition an overall majority.
(* Sort of a gain - the sitting MP went independent but chose to instead stand in Flinders.)
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on May 21, 2019 21:49:57 GMT
It’s looking like 78-67 with Bass and Macquarie going Liberal but Labor clinging on to Cowan and Lilley.
The Australian Electoral Commission have taken the latter two off their “close seats” page leaving just the former two.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on May 22, 2019 9:54:16 GMT
The Australian Electoral Commission have moved the Queensland seat of Lilley (Labor held) back into the “close seats” column. With 82.13% counted Labor lead the LNP by 842 (50.49%-49.51%), a swing of 5.19% to the LNP.
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Post by timrollpickering on May 22, 2019 10:16:13 GMT
The Labor leadership race so far:
* Anthony Albanese is standing. Although on the NSW Left, he's been picking up cross factional support.
* Tanya Plibersek has declined to run, citing family responsibilities.
* Chris Bowen announced he was standing.
* Chris Bowen pulled out of the race 24 hours later.
* Bill Shorten is reportedly searching all over the caucus to find a candidate & support to stop Albanese.
* Jim Chalmers is still considering.
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Post by pragmaticidealist on May 22, 2019 10:28:49 GMT
The Labor leadership race so far: * Anthony Albanese is standing. Although on the NSW Left, he's been picking up cross factional support. * Tanya Plibersek has declined to run, citing family responsibilities. * Chris Bowen announced he was standing. * Chris Bowen pulled out of the race 24 hours later. * Bill Shorten is reportedly searching all over the caucus to find a candidate & support to stop Albanese. * Jim Chalmers is still considering. Albanese is arguably to the right of Shorten in terms of actual views and ideology, even if he's a member of the official Labor Left. He's talked often about "aspiration" and such like. As for Shorten's manoeuvrings, surely leading the party to two successive election losses should destroy any role for him being a factional powerbroker. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 22, 2019 18:19:41 GMT
At the Twitter-account of Nathan Ruser You can find maps with the 2-PartyPreference-swings per booths.
Apart from a general swing towards Labor in Victoria and other OutLiers, the story is clearly, that Labor gained in wealthy areas, but not quite enough to win seats, while the Coalition was increasing in proletarian regions (like western Sydney).
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Post by timrollpickering on May 23, 2019 10:06:42 GMT
Jim Chalmers has declined to stand for Labor leader.
Labor may want to think twice before rushing to have an unopposed return.
ABC have moved Bass in the seats gained list, giving the Coalition a majority on the floor (one member will have to become Speaker).
The Senate results trickle in. Unless there are some big transfers to come, it looks like 3 Coalition, 2 Labor and 1 Green in all states except Queensland (One Nation instead of second Labor) and Tasmania (Jacqui Lambie instead of third Liberal). However Queensland still has a tight squeeze between four parties for three seats.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on May 23, 2019 10:24:18 GMT
Jim Chalmers has declined to stand for Labor leader. Labor may want to think twice before rushing to have an unopposed return. ABC have moved Bass in the seats gained list, giving the Coalition a majority on the floor (one member will have to become Speaker). The Senate results trickle in. Unless there are some big transfers to come, it looks like 3 Coalition, 2 Labor and 1 Green in all states except Queensland (One Nation instead of second Labor) and Tasmania (Jacqui Lambie instead of third Liberal). However Queensland still has a tight squeeze between four parties for three seats. They’re preempting the Electoral Commission, but it does look sensible, Liberals 561 ahead and almost 92% counted |
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on May 23, 2019 10:32:24 GMT
What a fuckwit country Australia is.
Constituencies with odd names and odd names that change from time to time. No one knows where any of the seats are and the naming serves not a whit of purpose other than to confuse.
Then they have damn fool polling where one can have postal votes validly arriving many days after the election and still being counted thus prolonging the awful business for ages, instead of a sensible cut off for arrivals on polling day.
And a gormless decision to permit polling at remote places for any constituency needing tallying and communication and room for error and delay.
It is a system designed by fools for idiots.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on May 23, 2019 11:03:12 GMT
What a fuckwit country Australia is. Constituencies with odd names and odd names that change from time to time. No one knows where any of the seats are and the naming serves not a whit of purpose other than to confuse. Then they have damn fool polling where one can have postal votes validly arriving many days after the election and still being counted thus prolonging the awful business for ages, instead of a sensible cut off for arrivals on polling day. And a gormless decision to permit polling at remote places for any constituency needing tallying and communication and room for error and delay. It is a system designed by fools for idiots. Maybe, but the great thing is that if Australia didn't exist the majority of them would be living here, so let's be grateful for it. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on May 23, 2019 11:04:48 GMT
Jim Chalmers has declined to stand for Labor leader. Labor may want to think twice before rushing to have an unopposed return. ABC have moved Bass in the seats gained list, giving the Coalition a majority on the floor (one member will have to become Speaker). The Senate results trickle in. Unless there are some big transfers to come, it looks like 3 Coalition, 2 Labor and 1 Green in all states except Queensland (One Nation instead of second Labor) and Tasmania (Jacqui Lambie instead of third Liberal). However Queensland still has a tight squeeze between four parties for three seats. Quickly scan reading that my reaction was "is Judith Chalmers still alive?"  |
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myth11
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Post by myth11 on May 23, 2019 11:22:25 GMT
What a fuckwit country Australia is. Constituencies with odd names and odd names that change from time to time. No one knows where any of the seats are and the naming serves not a whit of purpose other than to confuse. Then they have damn fool polling where one can have postal votes validly arriving many days after the election and still being counted thus prolonging the awful business for ages, instead of a sensible cut off for arrivals on polling day. And a gormless decision to permit polling at remote places for any constituency needing tallying and communication and room for error and delay. It is a system designed by fools for idiots. Not the best opening for a country we hope to have a trade deal with. |
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on May 23, 2019 12:04:28 GMT
What a fuckwit country Australia is. Constituencies with odd names and odd names that change from time to time. No one knows where any of the seats are and the naming serves not a whit of purpose other than to confuse. Then they have damn fool polling where one can have postal votes validly arriving many days after the election and still being counted thus prolonging the awful business for ages, instead of a sensible cut off for arrivals on polling day. And a gormless decision to permit polling at remote places for any constituency needing tallying and communication and room for error and delay. It is a system designed by fools for idiots. Not the best opening for a country we hope to have a trade deal with. We are not out of EU yet. We are not in any negotiations yet. I shall not be on the negotiating team. Australia officials will not see this post. What are you blithering about? And it is a damn fool electoral system unfit for purpose. And it is a horrid country with a horrid accent and horrid sports practices. And it is far too hot with more nasty dangerous things on land, in water, on beaches and in the sea than anywhere on earth. |
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on May 23, 2019 12:22:18 GMT
Not the best opening for a country we hope to have a trade deal with. We are not out of EU yet. We are not in any negotiations yet. I shall not be on the negotiating team. Australia officials will not see this post. What are you blithering about? And it is a damn fool electoral system unfit for purpose. And it is a horrid country with a horrid accent and horrid sports practices. And it is far too hot with more nasty dangerous things on land, in water, on beaches and in the sea than anywhere on earth. Yes, but as penal colonies go it is pretty good. |
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mboy
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Post by mboy on May 23, 2019 12:34:27 GMT
And it is far too hot with more nasty dangerous things on land, in water, on beaches and in the sea than anywhere on earth. Australians aren't that bad... |
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Post by timrollpickering on May 23, 2019 12:34:33 GMT
What a fuckwit country Australia is. Constituencies with odd names and odd names that change from time to time. No one knows where any of the seats are and the naming serves not a whit of purpose other than to confuse. Then they have damn fool polling where one can have postal votes validly arriving many days after the election and still being counted thus prolonging the awful business for ages, instead of a sensible cut off for arrivals on polling day. And a gormless decision to permit polling at remote places for any constituency needing tallying and communication and room for error and delay. It is a system designed by fools for idiots. I agree the constituency names are messy - even the geographic ones aren't the most help when they contain less of what people expect (Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide, Newcastle) or where geographic features have been moved out (as often noted, Werriwa hasn't contained Lake George since 1913 and Corangamite has had the lake of that name removed at this election - a proposed rename to Cox did not go down well) - but even worse are the countries that just number constituencies with little logic to how they're allocated. As for postal votes, as said before Australia doesn't have universal daily collections and deliveries. And again this is not unusual - if anything it's the UK's practice of expecting all votes in to the local count centre by the close of polling that's the exception. Our system is going to come under problems in the near future because of the general decline in letter traffic. Long gone are the days when you could receive a letter at the breakfast table inviting you to afternoon tea elsewhere in town and be able to write & send a reply that would reach your host in time for them to prepare. Collections and deliveries are such that it takes longer to get everything out and back (especially when there are bank holidays in the mix). The problems with the EU citizens' declaration form and the ballot papers to ex pats (which seems to come up numerous times) suggest we're not as good at this as we could be. However there is so much resistance to anything that prevents overnight final results that it's hard to investigate alternative methods of making voting more accessible in the modern age. (One thing that might work would be if the task of printing & sending out ex pat ballot papers could be transferred to embassies in their countries of residence. That might at least cut down to sending transit time.) |
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Post by Andrew_S on May 24, 2019 11:09:45 GMT
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on May 24, 2019 11:34:14 GMT
There seems to be a trend to Labor here; Thursday finished with a 131 Liberal lead, down from 196 on Wednesday. |
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on May 24, 2019 11:55:41 GMT
There seems to be a trend to Labor here; Thursday finished with a 131 Liberal lead, down from 196 on Wednesday. Macquarie has been flipping back and forth between Labor and Liberal all week. There hasn't been a consistent trend favouring one side. The ABC are predicting a Liberal gain, who are currently leading the poll, but it's still a very close contest with no clear winner having emerged one week after the election. I don’t know if they’ve shifted it but it’s currently in their “in doubt” category with Cowan in WA. |
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Post by timrollpickering on May 24, 2019 15:31:01 GMT
IIUC the in doubt column is automatically determined by a narrow band of margin unless Antony Green overrides the system.
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