Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Jul 25, 2015 21:53:50 GMT
The evidence for UKIP having settled down is not seen in local byelection results, which have shown the UKIP vote to be melting like snowballs in July. Since when have local by-election results been representative of national trends? Individually they don't but collectively they can indicate trends.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 26, 2015 18:39:52 GMT
This latest survey also had Labour leadership polling - Burnham was clearly the most popular overall (even amongst Tory voters he was top)
Kendall didn't score much higher than Corbyn.....
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Jul 26, 2015 19:30:45 GMT
This latest survey also had Labour leadership polling - Burnham was clearly the most popular overall (even amongst Tory voters he was top) Kendall didn't score much higher than Corbyn..... It would suggest that this is largely down to name recognition.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 27, 2015 10:04:42 GMT
I would be inclined to agree on the whole, but arguably the fact a certain candidate has had about 243,815 puff pieces about them in the Tory press since the second weekend in May obviates that somewhat. Despite that, they are barely scoring better than a 66 year old early 70s OU Science lecturer
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 2, 2015 13:30:46 GMT
Is Jeremy Corbyn the only hope for Scottish Labour? Not according to the poll:
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Sept 2, 2015 13:43:44 GMT
Is Jeremy Corbyn the only hope for Scottish Labour? Not according to the poll: Is the a breakdown of who those people who say they are more/less likely to vote Labour currently support? I suspect there will be much more Tory opposition to Jeremy Corbyn than other parties, and he is probably just about breaking even with SNP supporters.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 2, 2015 13:49:27 GMT
Is Jeremy Corbyn the only hope for Scottish Labour? Not according to the poll. Is the a breakdown of who those people who say they are more/less likely to vote Labour currently support? I suspect there will be much more Tory opposition to Jeremy Corbyn than other parties, and he is probably just about breaking even with SNP supporters. It's on page 38 here: www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Scotland/scotland-opinion-monitor-august-2015-tables.pdfCorbyn is in negative territory with every party except 'other' parties (presumably mostly SSP, Solidarity and Scottish Green Party).
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Sept 2, 2015 14:03:59 GMT
Is the a breakdown of who those people who say they are more/less likely to vote Labour currently support? I suspect there will be much more Tory opposition to Jeremy Corbyn than other parties, and he is probably just about breaking even with SNP supporters. It's on page 38 here: www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Scotland/scotland-opinion-monitor-august-2015-tables.pdfCorbyn is in negative territory with every party except 'other' parties (presumably mostly SSP, Solidarity and Scottish Green Party). Jesus, that's a low bar, and people are expecting Labour to do worse once the public get to know him and his policies better, this is not good for Labour at all. I don't think he will even be in positive territory with any of the parties you mention as bar maybe a minority of the Green Party in Scotland, they are all hardcore independence. And thanks for finding the data.
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Khunanup
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Post by Khunanup on Sept 2, 2015 14:48:37 GMT
Is Jeremy Corbyn the only hope for Scottish Labour? Not according to the poll: It seems to bear out what I've suspected. In Scotland him being a trendy London MP will trump, or at least cancel out the 'positives' of his left wing programme. In fact, if you consider the 'run from London' line the SNP use against all the National parties what could fit that meme more than a metropolitan, London MP leading Labour?
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Sept 2, 2015 15:55:52 GMT
Is Jeremy Corbyn the only hope for Scottish Labour? Not according to the poll: It seems to bear out what I've suspected. In Scotland him being a trendy London MP will trump, or at least cancel out the 'positives' of his left wing programme. In fact, if you consider the 'run from London' line the SNP use against all the National parties what could fit that meme more than a metropolitan, London MP leading Labour? Partly that. I think there's also an element that seems to be responding something like this: "The establishment" response to Corbyn has been reinforcing all the thoughts and prejudices about "the establishment" generated before, during and after the referendum campaign. Rather than generating support for Corbyn and promising advances for a Corbyn-led Labour party, it reinforces support for the SNP who manage to be seen as anti-establishment, despite effectively being the establishment now up here. The other factor is that I just cannot imagine an easy working relationship between Corbyn and Dugdale. SLAB's problems are not getting any easier.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Sept 2, 2015 16:12:48 GMT
It seems to bear out what I've suspected. In Scotland him being a trendy London MP will trump, or at least cancel out the 'positives' of his left wing programme. In fact, if you consider the 'run from London' line the SNP use against all the National parties what could fit that meme more than a metropolitan, London MP leading Labour? Partly that. I think there's also an element that seems to be responding something like this: "The establishment" response to Corbyn has been reinforcing all the thoughts and prejudices about "the establishment" generated before, during and after the referendum campaign. Rather than generating support for Corbyn and promising advances for a Corbyn-led Labour party, it reinforces support for the SNP who manage to be seen as anti-establishment, despite effectively being the establishment now up here. The other factor is that I just cannot imagine an easy working relationship between Corbyn and Dugdale. SLAB's problems are not getting any easier. Dugdale has said she wants to seek common ground so I'm not so sure about that being a major factor. But otherwise, agree that his trendy London metropolitan style will not appeal to entrenched Nats, and that the establishments response has reinforced the importance of getting away from British rule.
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Sept 2, 2015 16:30:26 GMT
Partly that. I think there's also an element that seems to be responding something like this: "The establishment" response to Corbyn has been reinforcing all the thoughts and prejudices about "the establishment" generated before, during and after the referendum campaign. Rather than generating support for Corbyn and promising advances for a Corbyn-led Labour party, it reinforces support for the SNP who manage to be seen as anti-establishment, despite effectively being the establishment now up here. The other factor is that I just cannot imagine an easy working relationship between Corbyn and Dugdale. SLAB's problems are not getting any easier. Dugdale has said she wants to seek common ground so I'm not so sure about that being a major factor. But otherwise, agree that his trendy London metropolitan style will not appeal to entrenched Nats, and that the establishments response has reinforced the importance of getting away from British rule. Or the fact she felt the need to say that indicates she anticipates it being difficult
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Sept 2, 2015 16:40:09 GMT
Dugdale has said she wants to seek common ground so I'm not so sure about that being a major factor. But otherwise, agree that his trendy London metropolitan style will not appeal to entrenched Nats, and that the establishments response has reinforced the importance of getting away from British rule. Or the fact she felt the need to say that indicates she anticipates it being difficult That's a lot more conciliatory then most, albeit a very low bar.
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Post by finsobruce on Sept 2, 2015 17:27:32 GMT
Is Jeremy Corbyn the only hope for Scottish Labour? Not according to the poll: It seems to bear out what I've suspected. In Scotland him being a trendy London MP will trump, or at least cancel out the 'positives' of his left wing programme. In fact, if you consider the 'run from London' line the SNP use against all the National parties what could fit that meme more than a metropolitan, London MP leading Labour? I can think of several adjectives for Corbyn, but trendy certainly isn't one of them....
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Sept 2, 2015 17:35:45 GMT
It seems to bear out what I've suspected. In Scotland him being a trendy London MP will trump, or at least cancel out the 'positives' of his left wing programme. In fact, if you consider the 'run from London' line the SNP use against all the National parties what could fit that meme more than a metropolitan, London MP leading Labour? I can think of several adjectives for Corbyn, but trendy certainly isn't one of them.... Trendy hippie style then, the trendy indie sort of style that appeals to people who think they are hip and 'different' yet popular. Just that general viewpoint.
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Sept 2, 2015 17:40:00 GMT
Corbyn is an old fashioned ethical socialist with marked ascetic tendencies: Stafford Cripps for the 21st century.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 3, 2015 9:21:57 GMT
I have long been a critic of the "more likely/less likely" forumulation.
Indeed, many of those who tend to say "less likely" hate the party/person in question anyway and would never support them in any circumstances.
A much better question IMO, though less used, is "how would you vote IF (X was leader/whatever)"?
(this is still far from foolproof as a predictor, but gives an idea of how many might actually change their vote over something)
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Sept 3, 2015 15:34:44 GMT
I have long been a critic of the "more likely/less likely" forumulation. Indeed, many of those who tend to say "less likely" hate the Party/person in question anyway and would never support them in any circumstances. A much better formulation IMO, though less used, is "how would you vote IF (X was leader/whatever)"? I think you could do both. More likely/less likely is good in that it gauges general reaction to a person/policy. This allows us to see if people are trending towards a party, and what sort of people/policies would attract them. But I do agree it can lose meaningfulness if these people do not express an interest in voting for that party under any foreseeable circumstances, meaning being more likely is still basically zero chance so irrelevant.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 3, 2015 16:29:12 GMT
On Corbyn- we've noted before that there is an assumption that Scotland cries out for the most left-wing option, despite it being ruled since devolution came in by a fairly moderate Labour Party and then a SNP that makes left-wing noises but doesn't appear to act in an obviously left-wing way when given the tools and indeed the choices. The rise of the Scottish Greens seems to mirror that down south, and isn't obviously the product of Scottish exceptionalism rather than a more proportional voting system.
And the far-Left up there have shown zero electoral appeal up there for years.
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Post by marksenior on Sept 24, 2015 15:48:51 GMT
September Ipsos Mori poll
Con 39 Lab 34 LD 9 UKIP 7 SNP 5 Green 4
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