Ipsos-MORI

[Sibboleth]

This often shows in panel surveys but is then not reflected in actual observable patterns of support. This might plausibly then contribute to polling errors.

[johnloony]

Jul 30, 2024 12:35:49 GMT hullenedge said:

www.ipsos.com/en-uk/how-britain-voted-in-the-2024-election

Those numbers do not include the people who died or abstained

[batman]

It would have been regarded as quite remarkable not long ago for substantially more voters to switch from Conservative to Labour than from Conservative to Lib Dem

[No Offence Alan]

Jul 30, 2024 14:10:21 GMT batman said:

It would have been regarded as quite remarkable not long ago for substantially more voters to switch from Conservative to Labour than from Conservative to Lib Dem

But isn't that due to Reform, rather than the Lib Dems, now being the none-of-the-above party?

[nodealbrexiteer]

Jul 30, 2024 14:21:54 GMT No Offence Alan said:

Jul 30, 2024 14:10:21 GMT batman said:

It would have been regarded as quite remarkable not long ago for substantially more voters to switch from Conservative to Labour than from Conservative to Lib Dem

But isn't that due to Reform, rather than the Lib Dems, now being the none-of-the-above party?

Just bask in your 72 seats

[redtony]

c1 are working class

[batman]

I'm a C1. We are clerical & non-manual workers who are not managerial or supervisory according to most definitions, although I would certainly say there's a strong physical element to my job (though not the primary element)

[The Bishop]

Jul 30, 2024 13:07:58 GMT Sibboleth said:

This often shows in panel surveys but is then not reflected in actual observable patterns of support. This might plausibly then contribute to polling errors.

Whilst it is true that quite a few of the wealthiest constituencies voted LibDem or even Labour this time, the vast majority of the poorest ones followed all elections in living memory in backing Labour. And this is even before we get to the now near consensus that ABC1C2DE classifications are fundamentally outdated and misleading anyway.

[Pete Whitehead]

Jul 30, 2024 12:56:23 GMT polupolu said:

I was particularly intrigued by the social class numbers for Labour and the Tories:
Tories scoring roughly equal numbers across all social classes, whereas Labour score better in the ABC1 categories rather than the C2DE categories.

Also interesting that, despite speculation that Reform was converting both Tory and Labour voters, Labour lost twice as many of their 2019 voters to the Greens as to Reform.

Reform was never expected to win over more than negligible numbers of 2019 Labour voters. What was speculated about was their potential to win over some of the swing voters who voted Conservative in 2019 but were indicating to pollsters prior to the election that they would switch to Labour. It's difficult/impossible to quantify, but given where the national vote shares ended up and looking particularly at those seats where Reform did well, this obviously was a thing.

[No Offence Alan]

Jul 31, 2024 11:59:24 GMT The Bishop said:

Jul 30, 2024 13:07:58 GMT Sibboleth said:

This often shows in panel surveys but is then not reflected in actual observable patterns of support. This might plausibly then contribute to polling errors.

Whilst it is true that quite a few of the wealthiest constituencies voted LibDem or even Labour this time, the vast majority of the poorest ones followed all elections in living memory in backing Labour. And this is even before we get to the now near consensus that ABC1C2DE classifications are fundamentally outdated and misleading anyway.

Central Scotland between 2015 and 2024 being an exception to that.

[hullenedge]

PMs' popularity after first month in office:-

[hullenedge]

Wrinklies and Lib Dems turned off most by Labour since the election:-