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Post by batman on Jan 30, 2024 19:16:21 GMT
I'll believe Labour getting 49% in a general election when I see it. Even under Blair it was 5% less than that.
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Post by michaelarden on Jan 30, 2024 19:34:26 GMT
I'll believe Labour getting 49% in a general election when I see it. Even under Blair it was 5% less than that. But he was regularly polling 5% more than that. I don't think Labour will get 49% either but c45% is not out of the question. As others mention above Ipsos tend to be a bit more swingy than others due to (in)frequency and methodology. The Lib Dems have been edging downward in most polls and Labour edging up (particularly after Davey's disastrous ITV PO interview). It's also perfectly conceivable that the electorate having made up its collective mind that it wants the Tories out - the longer they keep clinging on to power the more people are determined to vote Labour to get them out. |
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Post by woollyliberal on Jan 30, 2024 20:41:20 GMT
It's also perfectly conceivable that the electorate having made up its collective mind that it wants the Tories out - the longer they keep clinging on to power the more people are determined to vote Labour to get them out. On that, there are 60 or 70 seats where the Lib Dems are the favourites to get the Tories out (not that I think they'll win them all by any means) which leaves Labour with about 300. it means Labour will benefit more from tactical voting that the Lib Dems, perhaps by a factor of 5. The Lib Dems might lose more votes to tactical voting than they gain. But they'll win more seats by it. |
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Jan 30, 2024 20:48:27 GMT
I'll believe Labour getting 49% in a general election when I see it. Even under Blair it was 5% less than that. No party above 45% GB share since 1970 |
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Post by manchesterman on Jan 30, 2024 20:52:03 GMT
..and yet look at all the landslides we've had since then.
If Labour get a majority of 150 based on say 45% support, that will be a travesty. As would Reform getting 0 seats on10% vote share!
FPTP in the bin!
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Jan 30, 2024 20:57:37 GMT
..and yet look at all the landslides we've had since then. If Labour get a majority of 150 based on say 45% support, that will be a travesty. As would Reform getting 0 seats on10% vote share! FPTP in the bin! No |
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Post by manchesterman on Jan 30, 2024 20:58:28 GMT
Yes  |
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Post by islington on Jan 30, 2024 21:11:31 GMT
..and yet look at all the landslides we've had since then. If Labour get a majority of 150 based on say 45% support, that will be a travesty. As would Reform getting 0 seats on10% vote share! FPTP in the bin! Not necessarily a travesty. 45%, if Labour achieve it, would be an outstanding performance; and if it's combined with a large lead over the runners-up, a 150 majority would not be an unreasonable outcome. |
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Post by hullenedge on Mar 4, 2024 9:35:36 GMT
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 4, 2024 9:41:53 GMT
The 'since 1978' has confused a few people since the Conservatives weren't doing badly in 1978. It means 'since our regular polling series began in 1978'.
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Post by batman on Mar 4, 2024 10:09:27 GMT
Do we know the sample dates for this one?
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Post by andrewp on Mar 4, 2024 10:26:25 GMT
Do we know the sample dates for this one? 21-28 Feb. |
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Clark
Forum Regular
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Post by Clark on Mar 6, 2024 19:28:54 GMT
Is Bob Worcester still on the go or is he very much out of the polling limelight now?
EDIT - he's 91 now!
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Mar 6, 2024 20:38:09 GMT
Is Bob Worcester still on the go or is he very much out of the polling limelight now? EDIT - he's 91 now! I think out of it,Ive corresponded with him,very amiable |
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,144
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Post by cogload on Apr 18, 2024 8:28:27 GMT
That is a shit poll for us as well. They don't prompt.
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Post by michaelarden on Apr 18, 2024 20:24:20 GMT
That is a shit poll for us as well. They don't prompt. The unweighted scores were even worse. Lib Dem 8% Green 10%. Davey's been on TV talking about the PO again though. |
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Post by grumpyguy on Apr 19, 2024 13:19:48 GMT
I'd caution against drawing conclusions from a single poll, even if (or especially, in some people's views) if it's Ipsos. In this poll, in particular, 6% want to vote 'Other'. This is very high and therefore unlikely to be sustained over time. What it means in terms of actual voting is anyone's guess, but it may simply mean that a lot of voters are undecided and likely to behave in unpredictable ways.
That said, it's not hard to see that L/Ds are indeed losing ground to other parties, in stated intentions anyway. But it's beginning to look as though what V I polls record differ significantly from the way people actually vote (RefUk supporters not voting, L/Ds exceeding ecpectations, MRPs different from standard polls). If I'm right then pollsters are going to have red faces at the GE.
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Apr 19, 2024 17:26:55 GMT
I'd caution against drawing conclusions from a single poll, even if (or especially, in some people's views) if it's Ipsos. In this poll, in particular, 6% want to vote 'Other'. This is very high and therefore unlikely to be sustained over time. What it means in terms of actual voting is anyone's guess, but it may simply mean that a lot of voters are undecided and likely to behave in unpredictable ways. That said, it's not hard to see that L/Ds are indeed losing ground to other parties, in stated intentions anyway. But it's beginning to look as though what V I polls record differ significantly from the way people actually vote (RefUk supporters not voting, L/Ds exceeding ecpectations, MRPs different from standard polls). If I'm right then pollsters are going to have red faces at the GE. That 6% here includes SNP (normally 3-4%) and PC (normally 1%) so that only leaves 1-2% other, which really isn't very high. |
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Post by batman on Apr 19, 2024 17:46:52 GMT
SNP have been 2% in quite a few recent polls though still 3% in the majority.
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Post by grumpyguy on Apr 20, 2024 10:51:22 GMT
I'd caution against drawing conclusions from a single poll, even if (or especially, in some people's views) if it's Ipsos. In this poll, in particular, 6% want to vote 'Other'. This is very high and therefore unlikely to be sustained over time. What it means in terms of actual voting is anyone's guess, but it may simply mean that a lot of voters are undecided and likely to behave in unpredictable ways. That said, it's not hard to see that L/Ds are indeed losing ground to other parties, in stated intentions anyway. But it's beginning to look as though what V I polls record differ significantly from the way people actually vote (RefUk supporters not voting, L/Ds exceeding ecpectations, MRPs different from standard polls). If I'm right then pollsters are going to have red faces at the GE. That 6% here includes SNP (normally 3-4%) and PC (normally 1%) so that only leaves 1-2% other, which really isn't very high. |
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