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Post by batman on Jun 19, 2024 9:04:21 GMT
That is quite a difficult prediction actually.
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Post by manchesterman on Jun 19, 2024 9:45:41 GMT
I have some spare time  Maybe we should select forum members to do some predictions. Can anyone who predicted the first and second places in Rochdale please step forward… Well no one has dipped their toes into my constituency prediction competition yet...I'm hoping they're all just keeping their powder dry until closer to polling day  |
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edgbaston
Labour
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Post by edgbaston on Jun 19, 2024 10:06:57 GMT
Maybe we need a ‘common sense MRP’ where there is manual correction on a list of special seats (or even separate constituency polls in these seats as part of the model) Or maybe - just maybe - we could spare ourselves all this febrile speculation and wait patiently for a couple of weeks, until we know for sure. (Sorry. That's a preposterous suggestion. I don't know what came over me. Forget I said it.) You may think this is a very clever answer but it is not! Polling is immensely important, in terms of narrative, coverage, scrutiny, advising those that wish to vote tactically, as well as giving science and industry a hint of which way to orient themselves. |
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Post by islington on Jun 19, 2024 10:31:34 GMT
Or maybe - just maybe - we could spare ourselves all this febrile speculation and wait patiently for a couple of weeks, until we know for sure. (Sorry. That's a preposterous suggestion. I don't know what came over me. Forget I said it.) You may think this is a very clever answer but it is not! Polling is immensely important, in terms of narrative, coverage, scrutiny, advising those that wish to vote tactically, as well as giving science and industry a hint of which way to orient themselves. Polling is certainly important and I never said it isn't.
My comment wasn't about polling in general. It was about efforts to second-guess the outcome in individual constituencies. People can engage in this activity, I suppose, if they want to, but in my opinion they are wasting their time because (i) constituency-level projection, whether based on polling, demography or whatever, is notoriously unreliable, and (ii) we shall know the constituency-level outcomes if we can bring ourselves to wait patiently for just over a fortnight.
So I agree that it is useful to know that Labour are heading for a thumping majority, and it is fascinating to follow the polling trends as the campaign progresses. But if you want to know whether Labour is winning in North Loamshire, or on the contrary is struggling in that seat but on the other hand is romping ahead in West Barsetshire; well, I'm afraid I don't think it's possible to know that at this stage. So if you are anxiously striving to devise some mechanism that will reliably foretell the outcome in specific seats, my advice is to give it up, take some deep breaths, make yourself a nice cup of tea, and wait. It's not long to go now.
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Post by batman on Jun 19, 2024 11:07:08 GMT
Maybe we should select forum members to do some predictions. Can anyone who predicted the first and second places in Rochdale please step forward… Well no one has dipped their toes into my constituency prediction competition yet...I'm hoping they're all just keeping their powder dry until closer to polling day I will next week |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,015
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 19, 2024 11:18:15 GMT
Is it really true that this MRP has simply completely omitted the Ashfield Independents from its "prediction" there? If so that is pretty shocking tbh.
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,732
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jun 19, 2024 12:27:27 GMT
Is it really true that this MRP has simply completely omitted the Ashfield Independents from its "prediction" there? If so that is pretty shocking tbh. Well, its modelling is useless for seats with large Independent votes in 2019, where it seems to just give them to Reform, so Zadrozny in Ashfield is ignored while centre-left, pro-EU Claire Wright's vote is given to Reform in Exmouth and Exeter East. Really daft that nobody looked at this anomaly. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,015
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 19, 2024 12:29:57 GMT
But it does give Corbyn and other Indies *some* votes (even if very likely not enough) whilst the AI's simply appear to have been left out completely.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,850 
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Post by johng on Jun 19, 2024 14:30:50 GMT
I think people are obsessing a bit too much on individual seats.
An MRP is just a much enhanced universal swing projection. It is less accurate in Wales and Scotland due to nationalist parties with a small sample sizes and is pretty much useless in projecting seats where there a specific circumstances (a strong independent, a disgraced MP, a particularly popular candidates, a very strong ground game etc. etc.).
IPSOS isn't a regular MRP pollster so I am sure there were issues they found and, perhaps, poor data sets for some constituencies.
I think the core data is as below. Headline share and headline seats. Obviously remember margin or error and that it's old data.
IPSOS has released an MRP poll. Headline figures are: Labour - 43% / 453 seats Conservatives - 25% / 115 seats ReformUK - 12% / 3 seats Lib Dems - 10%, / 38 seats Greens - 6% / 3 seats SNP - 3% / 15 seats
20,000 interviewed. Data is a bit old though as fieldwork was June 7 to June 12.
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Post by hullenedge on Jun 26, 2024 8:18:50 GMT
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,850
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Post by johng on Jun 26, 2024 9:34:59 GMT
Reminder for those who don't know. Ipsos conduct phone polls rather than the almost ubiquitous online polls.
I think it's interesting their phone polls also see the Reform surge and the Cons falling below 20.
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Post by uthacalthing on Jun 26, 2024 18:48:49 GMT
Reminder for those who don't know. Ipsos conduct phone polls rather than the almost ubiquitous online polls. I think it's interesting their phone polls also see the Reform surge and the Cons falling below 20. There are several million usual Conservative voters gagging to explain why they are not voting Conservative. |
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Post by hullenedge on Jul 4, 2024 8:09:54 GMT
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,144
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Post by cogload on Jul 4, 2024 8:12:17 GMT
Fascinated synthetic Labour decline. Turnout/ weighted toward the safe seats?
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,144
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Post by cogload on Jul 4, 2024 8:25:23 GMT
The SNP at 6%?
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Post by hullenedge on Jul 4, 2024 8:57:55 GMT
A bit more from KP:-
Also the refusal rate, of those certain to vote, for this poll was 11%, which apparently is a bit high.
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Post by carlton43 on Jul 4, 2024 9:02:08 GMT
A bit more from KP:- Also the refusal rate, of those certain to vote, for this poll was 11%, which apparently is a bit high. Thanks. I think I may have overcooked my TO predictions which is vexing as I had first thoughts of going 10-points lower on many but went off that idea on seeing other projections. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,015
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 4, 2024 10:59:33 GMT
A lot of rather strange things about this poll - including an abrupt 10 point drop in Starmer's "best PM" rating (though with no improvement for Sunak) and I don't think that has been anything like repeated in any of the other late polls. And the Green and (especially) SNP figures have attracted widespread scepticism.
Still, it could be right! The beauty is that we won't have long to find out now.
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Post by hullenedge on Jul 30, 2024 12:35:49 GMT
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polupolu
Lib Dem
Liberal (Democrat). Socially Liberal, Economically Keynesian.
Posts: 1,261
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Post by polupolu on Jul 30, 2024 12:56:23 GMT
I was particularly intrigued by the social class numbers for Labour and the Tories:
Tories scoring roughly equal numbers across all social classes, whereas Labour score better in the ABC1 categories rather than the C2DE categories.
Also interesting that, despite speculation that Reform was converting both Tory and Labour voters, Labour lost twice as many of their 2019 voters to the Greens as to Reform.
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