Prediction Competition - April 2019

[andrewp]

Burnley, rose hill with Burnley Wood LD 38, Lab 30, Burnley and Padiham Ind 20, Con 9, Green 3
Edinburgh, Leith Walk, SNP 36, Lab 24, Green 15, Con 11, Lib Dem 6, Ind Illingworth 3, UKIP 2, Ind Scott 1, Soc Lab 1, For Britain 0.5, Libertarian 0.5. SNP to win on transfers
Lambeth, Thornton. Lab 43, Lib Dem 35, Green 10, Con 8, UKIP 2, WEP 2
Merthyr, Cyfarthfa Lab 38, Ind Jones 36, Ind Griffiths 24, Con 2

[olympian95]

Burnley: LD 37, Ind 28, Lab, 24, Con 8, Green 3

Edinburgh: SNP 34, Lab 24, Green 15, LD 9, Con 7, UKIP 4, Illingworth 3, Soc Lab 2, Ind Scott 1, Libertarian 0.5, For Britain 0.5
- SNP win on transfers

Lambeth: LD 43, Lab 40, Green 7, Con 6, WEP 3. , UKIP 1

Merthyr : Jones 39, Lab 34, Griffiths, 22, Con 5

[zoe]

Burnley ld 32 ind 34 lab 20 con 10 green 4
Edinburgh snp 38 lab 26 green 10 ld 10 con 9 ukip 2 ill 2 soc 1 lib 1 fb 1. Snp win
Lambeth ld 46 lab 40 green 5 com 6 ukip 2 wep 1
Merthyr jones 40 lab 36 Griffiths 20 con 4

[middleenglander]

19 entrants this week with nothing from europeanlefty and harryb but electionmapsuk is back after missing last week. Zoe gets 4 x 5 additional faults for posting almost 8 minutes late.

Burnley, Rosehill & Burnley Wood: 16 Liberal Democrat hold with toyyllev and Zoe a Burnley & Padiham gain along with iainbhx a Labour gain
Edinburgh, Leith Walk: 100% SNP ahead on first preference and all but greenrobinhood (who has no prediction) have SNP ultimate gain
Lambeth, Thornton: 13 Labour hold, iainbhx, jamesrodriguez, Olympian95, toylyyev, Yellow Peril and Zoe a Liberal Democrat gain
Mertyr Tydfil, Cyfarthfa: 8 Independent Jones win, andrewp, electionmapsUK, hempie, iainbhx, jamesrodriguez, ricmk, syorkssocialist, Yellow Peril Labour gain
with greenrobinhood, John Loony and priceofdawn Independent Griffiths win

[andrewp]

Apr 11, 2019 19:43:43 GMT middleenglander said:

19 entrants this week with nothing from europeanlefty and harryb but electionmapsuk is back after missing last week. Zoe gets 4 x 5 additional faults for posting almost 8 minutes late.

Burnley, Rosehill & Burnley Wood: 16 Liberal Democrat hold with toyyllev and Zoe a Burnley & Padiham gain along with iainbhx a Labour gain
Edinburgh, Leith Walk: 100% SNP ahead on first preference and all but greenrobinhood (who has no prediction) have SNP ultimate gain
Lambeth, Thornton: 13 Labour hold, iainbhx, jamesrodriguez, Olympian95, toylyyev, Yellow Peril and Zoe a Liberal Democrat gain
Mertyr Tydfil, Cyfarthfa: 8 Independent Jones win, andrewp, electionmapsUK, hempie, iainbhx, jamesrodriguez, ricmk, syorkssocialist, Yellow Peril Labour gain
with greenrobinhood, John Loony and priceofdawn Independent Griffiths win

Does anyone have any clues about Cyfarthfa or were we all stabbing in the dark?

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Apr 11, 2019 19:55:24 GMT andrewp said:

Apr 11, 2019 19:43:43 GMT middleenglander said:

Merthyr Tydfil, Cyfarthfa: 8 Independent Jones win, andrewp, electionmapsUK, hempie, iainbhx, jamesrodriguez, ricmk, syorkssocialist, Yellow Peril Labour gain
with greenrobinhood, John Loony and priceofdawn Independent Griffiths win

Does anyone have any clues about Cyfarthfa or were we all stabbing in the dark?

Well I commissioned a full private canvass of the entire ward to get a steer; I know others did the same.

[Robert Waller]

Apr 11, 2019 19:55:24 GMT andrewp said:

Apr 11, 2019 19:43:43 GMT middleenglander said:

19 entrants this week with nothing from europeanlefty and harryb but electionmapsuk is back after missing last week. Zoe gets 4 x 5 additional faults for posting almost 8 minutes late.

Burnley, Rosehill & Burnley Wood: 16 Liberal Democrat hold with toyyllev and Zoe a Burnley & Padiham gain along with iainbhx a Labour gain
Edinburgh, Leith Walk: 100% SNP ahead on first preference and all but greenrobinhood (who has no prediction) have SNP ultimate gain
Lambeth, Thornton: 13 Labour hold, iainbhx, jamesrodriguez, Olympian95, toylyyev, Yellow Peril and Zoe a Liberal Democrat gain
Mertyr Tydfil, Cyfarthfa: 8 Independent Jones win, andrewp, electionmapsUK, hempie, iainbhx, jamesrodriguez, ricmk, syorkssocialist, Yellow Peril Labour gain
with greenrobinhood, John Loony and priceofdawn Independent Griffiths win

Does anyone have any clues about Cyfarthfa or were we all stabbing in the dark?

I'm pretty sure the answer is the latter ...
A little research suggested to me that Jones may be the Independent with connections to the Independent group (as opposed to the Merthyr Independent group!) while Griffiths seems to have stood for Plaid Cymru back in 2004.
What be the import of that, though, I have no idea, which is why I hedged my prediction somewhat.
I guess some of us might have tried to interpret the somewhat Delphic post by Penddu at the top of page 2 of the 11th April thread.

Who might also be stabbing, of course!

[yellowperil]

Apr 11, 2019 21:08:26 GMT Robert Waller said:

Apr 11, 2019 19:55:24 GMT andrewp said:

Does anyone have any clues about Cyfarthfa or were we all stabbing in the dark?

I'm pretty sure the answer is the latter ...
A little research suggested to me that Jones may be the Independent with connections to the Independent group (as opposed to the Merthyr Independent group!) while Griffiths seems to have stood for Plaid Cymru back in 2004.
What be the import of that, though, I have no idea, which is why I hedged my prediction somewhat.
I guess some of us might have tried to interpret the somewhat Delphic post by Penddu at the top of page 2 of the 11th April thread.

Who might also be stabbing, of course!

et tu, Brute?

[yellowperil]

Apr 11, 2019 21:01:19 GMT middleenglander said:

Week 1:

Authority	Burnley	Edinburgh	Lambeth	Merthyr Tydfil	Week 2	Week 2	Week 1	Weeks 1 & 2	Weeks 1 & 2
Ward	Rosehill with  Burnley Wood	Leith Walk	Thornton	Cyfarthfa	faults	position	faults	faults	position
andrewp	12.5	26.2	11.8				24.53
David Boothroyd	19.1	26.9	25.8				18.53
electionmapsuk	19.2	19.6	9.8				100
europeanlefty	100	100	100	100	400		12.53
greenrobinhood	12.5	13.4+5	5.4				28.24
harryb	100	100	100	100	400		30.24
hempie	10.0	24.5	9.4				26.53
iainbhx	29.4+10	20.6	8.9+10				28.53
jamesrodriguez	16.2	28.5	3.6+10				36.23
John Loony	22.3	36.0	15.0				12.93
olympian95	22.2	31.9	6.2+10				22.53
priceofdawn	11.4	33.9	16.0				21.49
ricmk	19.2	31.5	19.8				36.24
Right Leaning	15.4	16.4	9.8				32.24
robbienicoll	31.2	24.0	14.0				36.53
Robert Waller	26.2	20.4	10.7				20.24
southyorkssocialist	19.1	21.6	23.0				28.53
Tony Otim	28.8	18.6	7.7				11.24
toylyyev	25.4+10	13.5	4.9+10				20.53
Yellow Peril	21.4	28.0	7.6+10				30.53
Zoe	34.2+10+5	34.9+5	11.4+10+5	+5			21.24
Total	595.5+30+5	670.3+5+5	420.8+60+5				599.6

I think I would plead on behalf of Green Robin Hood, even though at this stage he is actually the front runner.  The 5 point deduction for omitting to say that the SDP would win Leith Walk after transfers, when it was clear to everybody in this case the SNP was the outright winner at all stages, seems a little harsh. OK the other 18 remembered to say it, but even so! My other query is whether there is a reason for omitting @europeanlefty from the table while continuing to include haribo ? Both were there for week 1 and missed week 2-what's the difference?

[The Bishop]

Well, the S*D*P winning in Leith would have been a bold prediction indeed......

[yellowperil]

Apr 12, 2019 11:35:27 GMT The Bishop said:

Well, the S*D*P winning in Leith would have been a bold prediction indeed......

oh woops- senior moment

[johnloony]

In the Merthyr Tydfil result, I predicted that Independent G would win over Independent J because (a) the previous result was a three-way marginal, (b) aardvark is provides an advantage. I think it is unfair that the results of the prediction competition are unfairly distorted by the fact that the local voters in the ward were voting on the basis of more knowledge about the candidates and issues than we on this forum know about. I think that there should be a law that people are only allowed to vote if they don't know anything about the candidates and haven't had their judgment distorted by leaflets or campaigning.

[johnloony]

In the Lambeth result, I predicted the same percentages as the by-election in February. It is unfair that the results of the prediction competition was distorted by the fact that the Lib Dems made a big effort during the second campaign and a big GOTV operation on polling day. I think there should be a law that if two by-elections happen in the same ward within six months of each other, everybody has to vote for the same party both times, and no new campaigning should be allowed.

After all, the main purpose of holding elections is to provide data for psephologists and prediction competitions.

[middleenglander]

Week 2:

Authority	Burnley	Edinburgh	Lambeth	Merthyr Tydfil	Week 2	Week 2	Week 1	Weeks 1 & 2	Weeks 1 & 2
Ward	Rosehill with  Burnley Wood	Leith Walk	Thornton	Cyfarthfa	faults	position	faults	faults	position
andrewp	12.5	26.2	11.8	52.1+10	112.6	6th	24.53	137.1	6th
David Boothroyd	19.1	26.9	25.8	33.4	105.1	3rd	18.53	123.6	3rd
electionmapsuk	19.2	19.6	9.8	59.4+10	117.9	9th	100	217.9	19th
europeanlefty	100	100	100	100	400		12.53	412.5	20th
greenrobinhood	12.5	13.4+5	5.4	65.4+10	111.6	5th	28.24	139.9	7th
harryb	100	100	100	100	400		30.24	430.2	21st
hempie	10.0	24.5	9.4	67.4+10	121.2	11th	26.53	147.8	9th
iainbhx	29.4+10	20.6	8.9+10	74.1+10	163.0	19th	28.53	191.5	18th
jamesrodriguez	16.2	28.5	3.6+10	70.1+10	138.4	13th	36.23	174.6	14th
John Loony	22.3	36.0	15.0	57.4+10	140.7	14th	12.93	153.6	11th
olympian95	22.2	31.9	6.2+10	43.4	113.6	8th	22.53	136.1	5th
priceofdawn	11.4	33.9	16.0	81.4+10	152.7	17th	21.49	174.2	13th
ricmk	19.2	31.5	19.8	57.4+10	137.8	12th	36.24	174.1	12th
Right Leaning	15.4	16.4	9.8	47.4	88.9	1st	32.24	121.2	2nd
robbienicoll	31.2	24.0	14.0	44.1	113.3	7th	36.53	149.8	10th
Robert Waller	26.2	20.4	10.7	48.1	105.4	4th	20.24	125.7	4th
southyorkssocialist	19.1	21.6	23.0	77.4+10	151.1	15th	28.53	179.6	15th
Tony Otim	28.8	18.6	7.7	40.0	95.0	2nd	11.24	106.3	1st
toylyyev	25.4+10	13.5	4.9+10	56.1	120.0	10th	20.53	140.5	8th
Yellow Peril	21.4	28.0	7.6+10	74.1+10	151.1	16th	30.53	181.7	16th
Zoe	34.2+10+5	34.9+5	11.4+10+5	41.4+5	161.8	18th	21.24	183.0	17th
Total	595.5+30+5	670.3+5+5	420.8+60+5	1,289.7+110+5	3,201.3		599.6	3,800.8

Objections please by noon Sunday.

I have considered the issue raised by Yellow Peril regarding the 5 fault penalty for greenrobinhood for failing to predict the ultimate winner in Edinburgh, Leith Walk but consider the penalty should stand.  A fortnight ago I failed to request this prediction element in the thread for March and thus the Clackmannon Central by-election where I generously interpreted the predictions.   However, for this by-election I included the requirement at the beginning of the current thread and 18 of the 19 entrants did give an ultimate winner.  I consider the 19th who did not should incur a penalty.

There are no by-elections next week but one the week after.  Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on Thursday 25 April.

[Robert Waller]

Very well done especially to Right Leaning (week) and Tonyotim (month so far)!

[Toylyyev]

Apr 11, 2019 20:10:09 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Apr 11, 2019 19:55:24 GMT andrewp said:

Does anyone have any clues about Cyfarthfa or were we all stabbing in the dark?

Well I commissioned a full private canvass of the entire ward to get a steer; I know others did the same.

The Independent Griffiths seems to have obtained a normal result for a PC candidate, or even a lowish one given their current polling. Which was a good call to make if that was the commission. I at least am still left guessing after the result, and won't second any motion to ban electoral mystery.

[johnloony]

Shropshire
Lab 33.3 LD 26.7 Con 20.0 Green 13.3 UKIP 6.7

[Tony Otim]

Shropshire: Lab 37.2, LD 35.3, Con 13.9, UKIP 10.2, Grn 3.4

[ricmk]

Nothing to lose by predicting the upset:

Shropshire: LD 35 Lab 33, Con 16 UKIP 12 Green 4

[Sibboleth]

I'm afraid that I haven't been following things at all, but Belle Vue could be quite interesting; the division has an odd history (it used to ticket split, usually voting Liberal in County elections and usually voting Labour in Borough elections. What was especially strange about that was that the county division boundaries were, in theory, better for Labour than the borough ward ones. The LibDems lost the county seat for good in 1997 and faded away; their solid result in 2017 was the first there in twenty years) and is the sort of place where Brexit is less than entirely popular. The Tories were eclipsed in the 1980s, but have still managed respectable percentages in good years. The Greens once managed some reasonable results and gave the impression of potentially threatening in the future, but diverted attention (with eventual spectacular success) to neighbouring Porthill ward instead. Anyway, it's a historically working class area (Coleham was very industrial; some interesting buildings as a result) that has somewhat, but not entirely, gentrified. The result is the sort of place that is socially mixed in a pleasant way that is quite unusual for Shrewsbury, which in general goes in more for overtly nasty social polarisation.