Prediction Competition - April 2019

[zoe]

Norfolk
C 52 LD 34.5 Lab 9.5 Green 4

[middleenglander]

20 entrants this week with harryb making his first prediction and Yellow Peril returning from his sabbatical.

Norfolk, Wroxham: 100% Conservative hold with majority over Liberal Democrat from 3% (robbienicoll) to 30% (europeanlefty)

[Robert Waller]

Think Tony Otim, John Loony and European Lefty in the first three positions, not sure about the order ...

[middleenglander]

Week 1:

Authority	Norfolk	Week 1
Division	Wroxham	position
andrewp	24.53	10th
David Boothroyd	18.53	4th
europeanlefty	12.53	2nd
greenrobinhood	28.24	12th
harryb	30.24	15th
hempie	26.53	11th
iainbhx	28.53	13th=
jamesrodriguez	36.23	18th
John Loony	12.93	3rd
olympian95	22.53	9th
priceofdawn	21.49	8th
ricmk	36.24	19th
Right Leaning	32.24	17th
robbienicoll	36.53	20th
Robert Waller	20.24	5th
southyorkssocialist	28.53	13th=
Tony Otim	11.24	1st
toylyyev	20.53	6th
Yellow Peril	30.53	16th
Zoe	21.24	7th
Total	499.6

Objections please by noon Sunday.

There are 4 by-elections next week. Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am Thursday.

[Tony Otim]

Burnley: LD 31.8; B&PI 31.3; Lab 25.0; Con 8.9; Grn 3.0

Edinburgh: SNP 35.2, Lab 20.8, Grn 20.2, Con 13.3, LD 5.4, Ind I 2.6, UKIP 1.0, SLP 0.9, Ind S 0.3, Lib 0.2, FB 0.1 (SNP to win after transfers)

Lambeth: Lab 40.8, LD 38.1, Grn 8.6, Con 8.3, UKIP 2.6, WEQ 1.6

Merthyr: Ind J 40.7, Lab 32.3, Ind G 19.9, Con 7.1

[johnloony]

I predict

Burnley: LD 45 Lab 31 Con 11 BPI 8 Green 5
Edinburgh: SNP 33 Lab 27 Green 15 Con 12 LD 4 UKIP 2 Ind 2 Ind 2 SLP 2 FB 1 Libt 0 (SNP win)
Lambeth: Lab 44 LD 34 Green 10 Con 9 WEQ 2 UKIP 1
Merthyr Tydfil: IndG 33 IndJ 32 Lab 31 Con 4

[jamesrodriguez]

Burnley, Rosehill with Burnley Wood: LD 36, Lab 25, BPI 25, Con 11, Grn 3.
Edinburgh, Leith Walk: SNP 30, Lab 18, Grn 17, LD 14, Con 13, UKIP 2, Ind I 2, Ind S 2 Soc Lab 1, Libt 0.5, FB 0.5. (SNP to win)
Lambeth, Thornton: LD 42, Lab 41, Con 7, Grn 6, WEQ 2, UKIP 2.
Merthyr, Cyfarthfa: Lab 41, Ind G 30, Ind J 26, Con 3.

[greenhert]

Burnley BC, Rosehill with Burnley Wood: Liberal Democrats 40, Labour 28, Burnley & Padiham Independent 20, Conservative 8, Green 4.
Edinburgh UA, Leith Walk (1st preference votes): SNP 35, Green 20, Labour 15, Liberal Democrats 12, Conservative 11, UKIP 2.2, Independent Illingworth 1.8, Independent Scott 1.1, Socialist Labour 0.9, Libertarian 0.6, For Britain 0.4.
Lambeth LBC, Thornton: Labour 41.5, Liberal Democrats 38, Green 8.5, Conservative 7.5, WEP 2.5, UKIP 2.
Merthyr Tydfil UA, Cyfarthfa: Independent Griffiths 35, Labour 32, Independent Jones 28, Conservative 5.

[hempie]

Burnley, Rosehill with Burnley Wood: LD 38, Lab 25, BPI 20, Con 10, Green 7
Edinburgh, Leith Walk: SNP 33, Lab 20, Green 16, Con 12, LD 9, UKIP 3, Ind I 2.5, Ind S 2.5 Soc Lab 1, Libertarian 0.5, FB 0.5 (SNP win on transfers)
Lambeth, Thornton: Lab 44, LD 36, Green 8, Con 7, WEQ 3, UKIP 2.
Merthyr, Cyfarthfa: Lab 36, Ind G 33, Ind J 27, Con 4

[iainbhx]

Burnley, Rosehill with Burnley Wood: Lab 34, LDm 30, BPI 25 Con 9, Grn 2
Edinburgh, Leith Walk: SNP 36, Lab 21, Grn 18, LDm 9, Con 8, Ind (Illotson) 5, UKIP 1.5, SocLab 0.7, Ind (Scott) 0.4, Libertarian 0.2, For Britain 0.2 (SNP Win)
Lambeth, Thornton: LDm 44, Lab 42, Con 7.5, Grn 4, WEP 1.5, UKIP 1
Merthyr, Cyfartha: Lab 38, Ind (Griffiths) 35, Ind (Jones) 25, Con 2

Lots of opportunity to go horribly wrong this week.

[Deleted]

Burnley, Rosehill with Burnley Wood: Lab 30, LDm 35, BPI 20 Con 10, Grn 5
Edinburgh, Leith Walk: SNP 35, Lab 20, Grn 15, LDm 10, Con 5, Ind (Illotson) 5, UKIP 3, SocLab 2, Ind (Scott) 2, Libertarian 2, For Britain 1 (SNP Win)
Lambeth, Thornton: LDm 35, Lab 45, Con 10, Grn 5, WEP 2, UKIP 3
Merthyr, Cyfartha: Lab 30, Ind (Griffiths) 40, Ind (Jones) 20, Con 10

[syorkssocialist]

Burnley, Rosehill with Burnley Wood: LD 41%, Lab 32%, Con 14%, BPI 10%, Green 3%
Edinburgh, Leith Walk: SNP 35%, Lab 22%, Green 17%, Con 12%, LD 7%, UKIP 2%, Ind Illotson 2%, SocLab 1%, Ind Scott 0.8%, Libertarian 0.8%, For Britain 0.4% (SNP win)
Lambeth, Thornton: Lab 48%, LD 30%, Con 11%, Green 8%, WEP 2%, UKIP 1%
Merthyr Tydfil, Cyfartha: Labour 40%, Ind Griffiths 34%, Ind Jones 22%, Con 4%

[Robert Waller]

Burnley BC, Rosehill with Burnley Wood: Liberal Democrats 36, Labour 24, Burnley & Padiham Independent 30, Conservative 8, Green 2.
Edinburgh UA, Leith Walk (1st preference votes): SNP 34, Green 21, Labour 21, Liberal Democrats 5, Conservative 13, UKIP 1, Independent Illingworth 3, Independent Scott 0, Socialist Labour 1, Libertarian 0.5, For Britain 0.5. SNP win after transfers.
Lambeth LBC, Thornton: Labour 40, Liberal Democrats 37, Green 10, Conservative 9, WEP 2, UKIP 2.
Merthyr Tydfil UA, Cyfarthfa: Independent Griffiths 30, Labour 30, Independent Jones 37, Conservative 3.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

BURNLEY Rosehill with Burnley Wood: L Dem 47, Lab 27, BPIP 11, C 10, GP 5
EDINBURGH Leith Walk: SNP 37, Lab 21, SGP 16, C 15, L Dem 5, Ind Illingworth 2, UKIP 2, Ind Scott 1, S Lab P 1, FB 0, Lbt 0. SNP win.
LAMBETH Thornton: Lab 49, L Dem 29, GP 11, C 7, UKIP 3, WEP 1
MERTHYR TYDFIL Cyfarthfa: Ind Jones 44, Lab 36, Ind Griffiths 15, C 5

[robbienicoll]

Rosehill with Burnley Wood, Burnley: Con 5, Lab 23, LD 45, Green 2, BPI 25
Leith Walk, Edinburgh: Con 12, Lab 22, LD 3, Green 22, UKIP 1, SNP 33, Ind (Illingworth) 4, Ind (Scott) 0.5, SocLab 2, Lib 0.3, FB 0.2 - SNP to win on transfers
Thornton, Lambeth: Con 7, Lab 40, LD 36, Green 14, UKIP 1, WEQ 2
Cyfarthfa, Merthyr Tydfil: Con 2, Lab 38, Ind (Griffiths) 20, Ind (Jones) 40

[yellowperil]

Burnley, Rosehill& Burnley Wood: Con 7, Lab 31, LD 35, Green 3, BPI 24
Lambeth, Thornton: Con 8, Lab 40, LD 43, Green 5, UKIP 2, WEP 2
Merthyr Tydfil,Cyfarthfa: Con 3, Lab 40, Ind Jones 24, Ind Griffiths 33

Edinburgh, Leith Walk: (1st Pref) Con 8, Lab 24, LD 10, Green 15, SNP 35, UKIP 2, SLP 1, Libt 0.1, FB 0.2, Ind Illingworth 2.7, Ind Scott2.  SNP win after transfers

[Toylyyev]

Burnley BC, Rosehill with Burnley Wood: Burnley & Padiham Independent 29, Labour 28, Liberal Democrat 28, Conservative 10, Green 5.

Edinburgh UA, Leith Walk: SNP 36, Green 22, Labour 17, Conservative 15, Liberal Democrat 6, Independent Illingworth 2, UKIP 0.9, Socialist Labour Party 0.5, Independent Scott 0.3, Libertarian 0.2, For Britain 0.1. (SNP to win after transfers)

Lambeth LBC, Thornton: Liberal Democrat 40, Labour 39.9, Conservative 8, Green 8, UKIP 2.1, Women’s Equality 2.

Merthyr Tydfil, Cyfarthfa: Independent Jones 33, Independent Griffiths 32, Labour 32, Conservative 3.

[ricmk]

Can't sleep...

BURNLEY: LD 38, Labour 25, B&P Ind 26, Conservative 10, Green 1.
EDINBURGH: SNP 37, Labour 19, LD 17, Green 13 Conservative 8 Ind Ill 3, Ind Scott 1 UKIP 1 Soc Lab 1, Libertarian 0, For Britain 0. Easy SNP win.
LAMBETH: Labour 44 LD 33, Conservative 12 Green 9 UKIP 2 WEP 0
MERTHYR TYDFIL: Lab 38 Ind Jones 32 Ind Griffiths 26 Con 4

[ElectionMapsUK]

BURNLEY: LD 38, LAB 23, BPI 26, CON 10, GRN 3
EDINBURGH: SNP 37, LAB 20, GRN 18, CON 9, LD 8, IND 2, IND 2, UKIP 2, FBR 0.5, LBT 0.5, SLP 1 (SNP WIN)
LAMBETH: LAB 42, LDM 36, GRN 8, CON 9, UKIP 3, WEP 2
MERTHYR TYDFIL: LAB 35, IND (J): 31, IND (G), 29, CON 5

[Right Leaning]

Burnley BC, Rosehill with Burnley Wood: LD 35, Lab 28, B&P Ind 24, C 10, Gn 3
Edinburgh UA, Leith Walk (1st preference votes): SNP 35, Gn 21, Lab 20, C 12, LD 6, UKIP 2, Ind (Illingworth) 2, Ind (Scott) 1, Soc Lab 1, Lib 0, For Britain 0. SNP win after transfers.
Lambeth LBC, Thornton: Lab 42, LD 36, C 10, Gn 8, WEP 2, UKIP 2.
Merthyr Tydfil UA, Cyfarthfa: Ind (Jones) 37, Lab 32, Ind (Griffiths) 26, C 5.