|
|
Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Apr 12, 2019 11:36:18 GMT
And entirely consistent with recent Scottish polling. Richard Leonard doesn't seem to be making any impact at all - a case study in the dangers of choosing leaders (and other candidates and officeholders) solely on the basis of factional alignment and loyalty to the UK leadership. It was a choice of two factionalists, there is little evidence to suggest the anti-Corbyn faction's man (Sarwar) would be doing much better if at all. (and let's draw a veil at how things went under media favourite Jim Murphy, shall we......) Tbf Jim Murphy was there for five minutes before he was turfed oot! He was barely given a chance. |
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Apr 12, 2019 11:36:59 GMT
There is an argument that both Leonard and Drakeford are "place holders" before a younger left winger is ready to take over.
|
|
|
|
Post by justin124 on Apr 12, 2019 11:41:24 GMT
I am a bit puzzled by the poor Labour performance - which was also seen at Clackmannan recently. In May 2017 - a month before the GE- Labour was polling 13% - 15% in polls for Scotland. Currently , they appear to be at circa 25% yet this is not being reflected in local results.
|
|
andrea
Non-Aligned
Posts: 7,773
|
Post by andrea on Apr 12, 2019 11:42:29 GMT
Scottish Labor is in that situation in which every new leader makes you look back in a more positive light some obscure character of the past. The "good" times with Wendy Alexander and Ian Gray...
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 12, 2019 11:44:50 GMT
I am a bit puzzled by the poor Labour performance - which was also seen at Clackmannan recently. In May 2017 - a month before the GE- Labour was polling 13% - 15% in polls for Scotland. Currently , they appear to be at circa 25% yet this is not being reflected in local results. local elections don't always reflect the national performance |
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Apr 12, 2019 11:46:49 GMT
It was a choice of two factionalists, there is little evidence to suggest the anti-Corbyn faction's man (Sarwar) would be doing much better if at all. (and let's draw a veil at how things went under media favourite Jim Murphy, shall we......) Tbf Jim Murphy was there for five minutes before he was turfed oot! He was barely given a chance. He was "given a chance" and lost every Westminster seat but one, usually by colossal margins. If that isn't grounds for resignation, what on earth would be?? |
|
|
|
Post by polaris on Apr 12, 2019 11:51:02 GMT
I am a bit puzzled by the poor Labour performance - which was also seen at Clackmannan recently. In May 2017 - a month before the GE- Labour was polling 13% - 15% in polls for Scotland. Currently , they appear to be at circa 25% yet this is not being reflected in local results. local elections don't always reflect the national performance Well, the SNP are still clearly ahead. So the by-elections reflect that.
The 2017 election - and the seven Westminster seats won - gave Scottish Labour a real opportunity to get back into the game. They haven't taken advantage of that opportunity and aren't even on the pitch right now.
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Apr 12, 2019 11:53:27 GMT
Scottish Labor is in that situation in which every new leader makes you look back in a more positive light some obscure character of the past. The "good" times with Wendy Alexander and Ian Gray... Now, steady on  Though there is maybe an "alternate history" to be done where Wendy A establishes herself as SLab leader and does well. I remain astonished that she was driven out of public life for something so utterly trivial, and annoyed that Brown and his entourage made so little effort to save her. |
|
|
|
Post by froome on Apr 12, 2019 11:53:33 GMT
Merthyr, Cyfarthfa Independent Jones 861 Labour 330 Independent Griffiths 180 Conservative 48 Ind Jones 60.7% Labour 23.3% Ind Griffiths 12.7% Conservative 3.4% Well that was quite emphatic Jones the vote. |
|
|
|
Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Apr 12, 2019 12:05:02 GMT
Tbf Jim Murphy was there for five minutes before he was turfed oot! He was barely given a chance. He was "given a chance" and lost every Westminster seat but one, usually by colossal margins. If that isn't grounds for resignation, what on earth would be?? He didn't lose those seats. It was half a century of Scottish Labour corruption, nepotism, condescension and complacency. Being a Dundonian who has seen a revolution in this city's politics I can assure you it wasn't Murphy that destroyed Scots Labour. |
|
|
|
Post by justin124 on Apr 12, 2019 12:05:40 GMT
local elections don't always reflect the national performance Well, the SNP are still clearly ahead. So the by-elections reflect that.
The 2017 election - and the seven Westminster seats won - gave Scottish Labour a real opportunity to get back into the game. They haven't taken advantage of that opportunity and aren't even on the pitch right now.
But that is not being reflected in the Westminster Voting Intention polls which show Labour little changed from 2017. At a Westminster election , it might well be the case that the personality of the Scottish leaders has much less relevance. The Labour surge in June 2017 surely owed a lot more to Corbyn's campaign performance than any sudden appreciation of the merits of Kezia Dugdale. Likewise opinions of Harold Wilson, Jim Callaghan & Neil Kinnock in relation to Douglas-Home, Heath, Thatcher & Major will have counted for far more than views of Willie Ross and Donald Dewar etc. |
|
|
|
Post by middleenglander on Apr 12, 2019 12:33:54 GMT
Burnley, Rosehill with Burnley Wood - Liberal Democrat hold | Party | 2019 votes | 2019 share | since 2018 | since 2016 | since 2015 | since 2014 | Liberal Democrat | 341 | 37.5% | -11.0% | -9.7% | +4.8% | -26.7% | Labour | 249 | 27.4% | -6.8% | -17.0% | -5.6% | -8.4% | Burnley & Padiham Independent | 154 | 16.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Conservative | 115 | 12.6% | -0.4% | from nowhere | +3.8% | from nowhere | Green | 51 | 5.6% | +1.3% | -2.9% | +0.8% | from nowhere | UKIP |
|
|
|
| -20.7% |
| Total votes | 910 |
| 63% | 69% | 34% | 60% |
Swing Liberal Democrat to Labour 2.1% since 2018 and 9.1% since 2014 but Labour to Liberal Democrat 3.6% since 2016 and 5.2% since 2015 Council now 27 Labour, 6 Liberal Democrat, 5 Conservative, 3 Burnley & Padiham Independent, 2 UKIP, 1 Green, 1 Independent Edinburgh, Leith Walk - SNP gain from Labour- based on first preferences | Party | 2019 votes | 2019 share | since 2017 | | since 2015 B * | since 2012 * | SNP | 2,596 | 35.7% | +1.3% |
| -0.5% | +7.2% | Green | 1,855 | 25.5% | +5.8% |
| +3.7% | +5.2% | Labour | 1,123 | 15.5% | -7.0% |
| -10.2% | -17.8% | Conservative | 777 | 10.7% | -3.7% |
| +2.8% | +2.6% | Liberal Democrat | 623 | 8.6% | +4.8% |
| +4.5% | +3.5% | Independent Illingworth | 110 | 1.5% | from nowhere |
| from nowhere | from nowhere | UKIP | 85 | 1.2% | from nowhere |
| -0.4% | from nowhere | Socialist | 56 | 0.8% | +0.2% |
| from nowhere | from nowhere | Independent Scott | 16 | 0.2% | from nowhere |
| from nowhere | from nowhere | For Britain | 14 | 0.2% | from nowhere |
| from nowhere | from nowhere | Libertarian | 12 | 0.2% | from nowhere |
| -0.1% | from nowhere | Previous Independents |
|
| -4.6% |
|
| -2.6% | Various Left |
|
|
|
| -2.0% | -1.4% | Other |
|
|
|
| -0.3% | -0.9% | Total votes | 7,267 |
| 68% |
| 115% | 93% |
* minor boundary changes since 2015 and before Swing Labour to SNP ~ 4¼% since 2017, 4¾% since 2015 by-election and 12½% since 2012 - although SNP to Green 2¼% since 2017, ~ 1½% since 2015 by-election but 1% Green to SNP since 2012 Council now 17 Conservative, 17 SNP, 11 Labour, 8 Green, 6 Liberal Democrat, 4 Independent Lambeth, Thornton - Labour hold | Party | 2019 B2 votes | 2019 B2 share | since 2019 B1 | since 2018 "top" | since 2018 "average" | since 2014 "top" | since 2014 "average" | | Labour | 998 | 41.5% | -3.3% | -21.4% | -22.3% | -11.1% | -12.1% | Liberal Democrat | 979 | 40.7% | +7.9% | +31.0% | +31.4% | +34.4% | +34.6% | Green | 171 | 7.1% | -2.6% | -4.3% | -3.8% | -1.2% | -0.7% | Conservative | 166 | 6.9% | -2.7% | -9.1% | -9.2% | -8.4% | -7.0% | Women's Equality | 53 | 2.2% | +0.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | UKIP | 39 | 1.6% | +0.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | -16.0% | -16.9% | Total votes | 2,406 |
| 93% | 71% | 75% | 55% | 58% |
Swing Labour to Liberal Democrats 5.6% since February by-election, 26¼% / 26¾% since 2018 and 22¾% / 23¼% since 2014 Council now 57 Labour, 5 Green, 1 Conservative Merthyr Tydfil, Cyfarthfa - Independent hold | Party | 2019 votes | 2019 share | since 2017 "top" | since 2017 "average" | since 2012 B | since 2012 "top" | since 2012 "average" | | Independent Jones | 861 | 60.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Labour | 330 | 23.3% | -3.1% | -4.5% | -9.8% | -14.7% | -14.5% | Independent Griffiths | 180 | 12.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Conservative | 48 | 3.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | +1.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Previous Independents |
|
| -30.0% | -26.6% | -56.0% |
|
| Merthyr Independents |
|
| -28.5% | -28.9% |
| -44.3% | -43.5% | Plaid Cymru |
|
| -15.0% | -16.7% | -8.7% | -17.7% | -18.7% | Total votes | 1,419 |
| 31% | 35% | 122% | 79% | 84% |
Swing not meaningful Council now 15 Independent Group, 14 Labour, 2 Dowlais Independent, 2 Independent
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 12, 2019 12:41:52 GMT
And entirely consistent with recent Scottish polling. Richard Leonard doesn't seem to be making any impact at all - a case study in the dangers of choosing leaders (and other candidates and officeholders) solely on the basis of factional alignment and loyalty to the UK leadership. It was a choice of two factionalists, there is little evidence to suggest the anti-Corbyn faction's man (Sarwar) would be doing much better if at all. (and let's draw a veil at how things went under media favourite Jim Murphy, shall we......) And if anything, Leith Walk is the kind of area where Leonard's faction at least ought to go down reasonably well, or at least better than most traditionally Labour-voting areas in Scotland. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 12, 2019 12:47:14 GMT
local elections don't always reflect the national performance Well, the SNP are still clearly ahead. So the by-elections reflect that.
The 2017 election - and the seven Westminster seats won - gave Scottish Labour a real opportunity to get back into the game. They haven't taken advantage of that opportunity and aren't even on the pitch right now.
tbf I don't need by elections to tell me the SNP are ahead |
|
Merseymike
Independent
Posts: 40,440
Member is Online
|
Post by Merseymike on Apr 12, 2019 13:44:08 GMT
Tbf Jim Murphy was there for five minutes before he was turfed oot! He was barely given a chance. He was "given a chance" and lost every Westminster seat but one, usually by colossal margins. If that isn't grounds for resignation, what on earth would be?? The mistake was his acceptance as a Labour MP at all. Epitomizes the complacent entitledness of Scottish Labour which took votes for granted. |
|
Merseymike
Independent
Posts: 40,440
Member is Online
|
Post by Merseymike on Apr 12, 2019 13:46:21 GMT
Well, the SNP are still clearly ahead. So the by-elections reflect that.
The 2017 election - and the seven Westminster seats won - gave Scottish Labour a real opportunity to get back into the game. They haven't taken advantage of that opportunity and aren't even on the pitch right now.
tbf I don't need by elections to tell me the SNP are ahead And while the issue of lines on maps matters most that's the way it will stay. The SNP will pick up most of those who want independence. The other parties will share the remainder. |
|
|
|
Post by johnloony on Apr 12, 2019 13:49:30 GMT
Leith Walk has a turnout of 30.3% (7,334 votes). 16 out of 21 ballot boxes are so far adjudicated; the result should come quickly once the final one has completed. That is a huge number of polling stations, especially in an urban area! The electorate is about 24,000. The equivalent electorate in Croydon would have about 15 polling stations. |
|
|
|
Post by matureleft on Apr 12, 2019 14:50:53 GMT
Yes, we don't want to give voters too much choice! They might start choosing candidates who work harder or something daft like that Oh, that old take the politics out of politics nonsense. So called community politics - utter waste of time and yet another reason why the LibDems are my least favourite party. In any case most local council casework is a waste of time amd money. Few councillors know what they are doing. I'd get rid of the lot and have much smaller numbers of councillors entirely focusing on making policy and would greatly expand both the citizens advice service and the ombudsmen service to deal with local problems. No more little Napoleons! I'm appalled. And it also seems a surprisingly Blairite view from you!
First, casework brings councillors (and MPs) into some form of contact with the realities of policy delivery. As a senior councillor (who certainly developed policy) I had little time for those who didn't do their casework and merely played eggheads instead. Such was the marginality of many wards in Cambridge and the sharp way in which elections were fought that they tended not to survive that long.
Secondly, casework can (and certainly did in my case) inspire policy development. Listening to folk and their experiences and then trying to address their problems can readily prompt ideas on novel, better ways of doing things and, sometimes, new services.
Thirdly, while CABs are valuable, few would argue that their caseworkers and governance were representative of the wider community. To pass the whole task of dealing with complaints and concerns widens the democratic deficit.
Finally, there are functions that are placed with councillors acting in a quasi judicial role - for example deciding on planning and various regulatory matters. Presumably you'd pass those to officers? While councillors do operate within a legal framework (or there are consequences) local people do at least have some avenue to decision-making.
|
|
Merseymike
Independent
Posts: 40,440
Member is Online
|
Post by Merseymike on Apr 12, 2019 14:52:59 GMT
Oh, that old take the politics out of politics nonsense. So called community politics - utter waste of time and yet another reason why the LibDems are my least favourite party. In any case most local council casework is a waste of time amd money. Few councillors know what they are doing. I'd get rid of the lot and have much smaller numbers of councillors entirely focusing on making policy and would greatly expand both the citizens advice service and the ombudsmen service to deal with local problems. No more little Napoleons! I'm appalled. And it also seems a surprisingly Blairite view from you!
First, casework brings councillors (and MPs) into some form of contact with the realities of policy delivery. As a senior councillor (who certainly developed policy) I had little time for those who didn't do their casework and merely played eggheads instead. Such was the marginality of many wards in Cambridge and the sharp way in which elections were fought that they tended not to survive that long.
Secondly, casework can (and certainly did in my case) inspire policy development. Listening to folk and their experiences and then trying to address their problems can readily prompt ideas on novel, better ways of doing things and, sometimes, new services.
Thirdly, while CABs are valuable, few would argue that their caseworkers and governance were representative of the wider community. To pass the whole task of dealing with complaints and concerns widens the democratic deficit. Finally, there are functions that are placed with councillors acting in a quasi judicial role - for example deciding on planning and various regulatory matters. Presumably you'd pass those to officers? While councillors do operate within a legal framework (or there are consequences) local people do at least have some avenue to decision-making.
I think local government is a largely superfluous wasteful mess. Surely you must have grasped that I'm a centralist and generally cynical about localism? |
|
|
|
Post by tonygreaves on Apr 12, 2019 17:05:05 GMT
From the views that you express here, I am delighted that the LDs are your least favourite party.
|
|
