Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,902
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Post by Tony Otim on Mar 19, 2019 14:27:42 GMT
BURNLEY BC; Rosehill with Burnley Wood (LD sitting as Burnley & Padiham Ind resigned)
Candidates:
ALKER, Victoria (Green)
CHAMBERLAIN, Phil (Conservative)
DEVANNEY, Andy (Labour)
MCCANN, Peter Rennie (Liberal Democrat)
RILEY, Paula Christine (Burnley & Padiham Independent)
2018: LD 699; Lab 493; Con 188; Grn 62
2016: LD 625; Lab 587; Grn 112
2015: Lab 878; LD 871; UKIP 550; Con 236; Grn 127
2014: LD 970; Lab 541
2012: Lab 725; LD 586; UKIP 151
2011: LD 817; Lab 691; BNP 180
2010: LD 1173; Lab 755; Con 460; BNP 338
2008: LD 742; Lab 353; Con 316
2007: LD 564; Lab 462; BNP 300; Con 264
2006: LD 812; Lab 466; Con 339
2004: Lab 694; BNP 443; LD 435; Con 332; Ind 252
2003: Lab 679; BNP 634; LD 285; Con 255
2002: Lab 1106, 1083, 1013; Ind 890; BNP 812; Con 660; Soc All 314
The Conservative stood here last May.
Current Council: Lab 27; Con 5; LD 5; Burnley & Padiham Independents 3+1 vacancy; UKIP 2; Grn 1; Ind 1
EDINBURGH UA; Leith Walk (Lab resigned):
Candidates:
ALEXANDER, Steven (UKIP)
CALDWELL, Jack (Liberal Democrat)
GARDNER, Nick (Labour)
ILLINGWORTH, Kevin (Independent)
JACOBSEN, David Don (Socialist Labour Party)
LAIRD, Tim (Libertarian)
MCCROSKIE, Dan (Conservative)
MUNN, Rob (SNP)
SCOTT, John Ferguson (Independent)
SLATER, Lorna (Green)
STIRLING, Paul Mitchell (For Britain)
2017: SNP 1900, 1770; Lab 1602, 793; Grn 2097; Con 1536; Ind 432, 55; LD 398; Soc Lab 66
Boundary Changes were very minor for 2017 elections.
Sept 15by: SNP 2290; Lab 1623; Grn 1381; Con 501; LD 255; UKIP 102; SSP 97; Left Unity 32; Ind 26; Libertarian 17 (SNP hold and Lab gain from Grn)
2012: Lab 1674, 937; SNP 1735, 502; Grn 1593; Con 637; LD 400; TUSC 109; Ind 109, 91; Lib 69
2007: Lab 1937, 1144; SNP 2550; LD 2170; Grn 1754; Con 1114; Sol 2013; Lib 193; SSP 182; Ind 16
(Note Lib=Liberal party, not Libertarian)
Since the 2017 elections, one of the SNP councillors is now sitting as an independent.
I’ll do a much fuller preview and rundown of candidates soon as this is my city and I used to live in this ward, but for now, would just note that Nick Gardner (Labour) was councillor for this ward from 2012-2017. Rob Munn (SNP) was councillor for Leith ward from 2007-2012. The Socialist Labour candidate also stood here in 2017.
Current Council: Con 17; SNP 16; Lab 11 + 1 vacancy; Grn 8; LD 6; Ind 4
LAMBETH LBC; Thornton (Lab resigned)
Candidates:
AUDSLEY, Adrian John (Green)
BRYANT, Matthew (Liberal Democrat)
FAZAL, Leila (Women’s Equality)
MANLEY-BROWNE, Nanda (Labour)
PLUME, John Kenneth (UKIP)
READ, Martin Lester (Conservative)
Feb 19by: Lab 1154; LD 845; Grn 251; Con 247; WEQ 46; UKIP 36
2018: Lab 2140, 1999, 1990; Con 545, 511, 489; Grn 388, 364, 292; LD 329, 328, 235
2014: Lab 2280, 2220, 2113; UKIP 764; Con 664, 570, 481; Grn 360, 336,272; LD 271, 258, 227
2010: Lab 2614, 2609, 2399; LD 1705, 1670, 1383; Con 1188, 1101, 1004; Grn 504, 373, 311
2006: Lab 1494, 1445, 1345; LD 1094, 946, 925; Con 480, 462, 457; Grn 470, 372, 363
2002: LD 1291, 1191, 1137; Lab 1142, 1080, 1057; Grn 277; Con 268, 257, 197
Greens, Conservatives, WEQ and UKIP all running same candidates as February. The Conservative was the top Conservative last May. The Green was the second Green last year, but the top Green in every other election since 2006.
Current Council: Lab 56 + 1 vacancy; Grn 5; Con 1
MERTHYR TYDFIL; Cyfarthfa (Merthyr Ind died)
Candidates:
GRIFFITHS, David Tudor (Independent)
JONES, Michelle Ellen (Independent)
PHILLIPS, Paul Trevithick (Conservative)
PREVETT, Mark Norman (Labour)
2017: Ind 1369, 812; Merthyr Ind 1300, 1068; Lab 1202, 1137, 1072; PC 685
Nov 12by: Lab 385; Ind 364, 289; PC 101; Con 26 (Lab gain from Merthyr Independents)
2012: Merthyr Ind 797, 760, 655; Lab 683, 640, 601; PC 318
2008: Merthyr Ind 1108, 933, 784; Lab 586, 533; Ind 422; LD 276
2004: PBP 1174, 942, 830; Lab 468, 453; Ind 444, 326
PBP – People Before Politics (2 of the 3 Merthyr Independents elected in 2008 were incumbent PBP councillors).
Current Council: Independent Group 14; Lab 14; Dowlais Independents 2; Independents 2; 1 vacancy
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Post by ElectionMapsUK on Mar 19, 2019 22:41:28 GMT
Edinburgh & Merthyr Tydfil will be fascinating!
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,902
|
Post by Tony Otim on Mar 20, 2019 6:58:40 GMT
Edinburgh & Merthyr Tydfil will be fascinating! I think Edinburgh will be the most straightforward and least close of the 4 elections this week |
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Post by froome on Mar 20, 2019 7:29:09 GMT
Edinburgh & Merthyr Tydfil will be fascinating! I think Edinburgh will be the most straightforward and least close of the 4 elections this week The Edinburgh election needs a few more candidates to make it really competitive.  No WEP, Brexit party or TIG for example. |
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Post by edinburghtory on Mar 20, 2019 11:18:47 GMT
Edinburgh & Merthyr Tydfil will be fascinating! I think Edinburgh will be the most straightforward and least close of the 4 elections this week I agree about Edinburgh being fairly straightforward. From what I have seen it seems to be descending into a race between the SNP & Greens, Labour don't seem to be doing very much, which I think the SNP will most likely win quite easily. |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,902
|
Post by Tony Otim on Mar 20, 2019 11:22:26 GMT
I think Edinburgh will be the most straightforward and least close of the 4 elections this week I agree about Edinburgh being fairly straightforward. From what I have seen it seems to be descending into a race between the SNP & Greens, Labour don't seem to be doing very much, which I think the SNP will most likely win quite easily. They're starting over 900 votes ahead with no indication of a major swing against since 2017. That ain't going to be overturned on transfers. The battle for 2nd will be more interesting. Also the battle to avoid last from the bottom 5 candidates who will struggle to get a couple of hundred votes between them... |
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Post by edinburghtory on Mar 20, 2019 14:34:36 GMT
I agree about Edinburgh being fairly straightforward. From what I have seen it seems to be descending into a race between the SNP & Greens, Labour don't seem to be doing very much, which I think the SNP will most likely win quite easily. They're starting over 900 votes ahead with no indication of a major swing against since 2017. That ain't going to be overturned on transfers. The battle for 2nd will be more interesting. Also the battle to avoid last from the bottom 5 candidates who will struggle to get a couple of hundred votes between them... I agree entirely with that all. My comment was more to do with the lack of activity from Labour and it seeming odd, you'd think they would wanting to at least keep 2nd. |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,902
|
Post by Tony Otim on Mar 20, 2019 21:35:16 GMT
Being a good Green, let's engage in some recycling. This was my preview for Leith Walk in 2017: Ward 12 - Leith WalkLeith Walk ward takes in the areas to either side of the top half of the eponymous street. It was the ward I lived in from 2004 for about 7 years. My impressions would be that in some respects its one of the least varied wards in Edinburgh in that a lot of it has a fairly similar character - in that its a lot of tenements mixed with more modern apartment blocks, on the whole not the wealthiest parts of the city, starting to get more ethnically diverse but not as much as further down into Leith. On the left hand side as you go down Leith Walk is Broughton and Gayfield, which is probably the wealthiest and largest tenement flats in the ward, moving down the hill and away from the walk to to Beaverbank and Bonnington where there has been a lot of building on old industrial sites to create more modern apartments and some student housing. Coming back over the WAter of Leith towards the Walk again is Pilrig which is more traditional tenements (plus a whole streets worth of B&Bs (some of which are used largely for homeless accommodation). Crossing the Walk you get more tenements with some new build in the streets between the Walk and Easter Road, again a bit wealthier at the Southern end around Hillside. At the Eastern edge the ward takes in the Hibs ground and some colony houses just along London Road. As I said, a bit more diverse as a ward, some parts quite arty and alternative, some students. Boundary changes are completely insignificant - some lines have been redrawn but not sure it actually moves more than a handful of voters out of the ward. Electorally, the ward elected 1 each from SNP, Lab, LD and Green in 2007. The Lib Dem collapse in 2012 allowed Labour to capture a second seat (Nick Gardner - their candidate this time round). Then in 2015, Deirdre Brock (SNP) resigned following her election as MP for Edinburgh North & Leith and Maggie Chapman (Green and co-convenor of the party) resigned to focus on the upcoming Scottish Parliament Elections where she was standing in North East Scotland. The ensuing double by-election saw Lewis Ritchie hold the SNP seat and Marion Donaldson take the Green seat for Labour. This left labour with 3 councillors on a by-election vote share of c.25%, so in 2017 only 2 re-stood (Donaldson and Gardner) with Donaldson being re-elected and Gardner missing out as the SNP took the 2nd Labour seat and the Green re-took their seat. Subsequently, Lewis Ritchie has left the SNP following some unsavoury behaviour and allegedly punching somebody in a taxi. Issues wise, housing seems to be shaping up to be a major issue. At a hustings, the SLP candidate said that Leith Walk has the second highest density of housing in the UK (although I'm not sure what that's based on) and a preponderance of short-term lets seems to be causing some disquiet. Otherwise, the trams might be back on the agenda following a council decision to extend the current route to Newhaven through Leith Walk, although this doesn't seem so far to generating quite the anger of old. I'll provide more information on the candidates soon... |
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Post by finsobruce on Mar 20, 2019 23:09:56 GMT
Being a good Green, let's engage in some recycling. This was my preview for Leith Walk in 2017: Ward 12 - Leith WalkLeith Walk ward takes in the areas to either side of the top half of the eponymous street. It was the ward I lived in from 2004 for about 7 years. My impressions would be that in some respects its one of the least varied wards in Edinburgh in that a lot of it has a fairly similar character - in that its a lot of tenements mixed with more modern apartment blocks, on the whole not the wealthiest parts of the city, starting to get more ethnically diverse but not as much as further down into Leith. On the left hand side as you go down Leith Walk is Broughton and Gayfield, which is probably the wealthiest and largest tenement flats in the ward, moving down the hill and away from the walk to to Beaverbank and Bonnington where there has been a lot of building on old industrial sites to create more modern apartments and some student housing. Coming back over the WAter of Leith towards the Walk again is Pilrig which is more traditional tenements (plus a whole streets worth of B&Bs (some of which are used largely for homeless accommodation). Crossing the Walk you get more tenements with some new build in the streets between the Walk and Easter Road, again a bit wealthier at the Southern end around Hillside. At the Eastern edge the ward takes in the Hibs ground and some colony houses just along London Road. As I said, a bit more diverse as a ward, some parts quite arty and alternative, some students. Boundary changes are completely insignificant - some lines have been redrawn but not sure it actually moves more than a handful of voters out of the ward. Electorally, the ward elected 1 each from SNP, Lab, LD and Green in 2007. The Lib Dem collapse in 2012 allowed Labour to capture a second seat (Nick Gardner - their candidate this time round). Then in 2015, Deirdre Brock (SNP) resigned following her election as MP for Edinburgh North & Leith and Maggie Chapman (Green and co-convenor of the party) resigned to focus on the upcoming Scottish Parliament Elections where she was standing in North East Scotland. The ensuing double by-election saw Lewis Ritchie hold the SNP seat and Marion Donaldson take the Green seat for Labour. This left labour with 3 councillors on a by-election vote share of c.25%, so in 2017 only 2 re-stood (Donaldson and Gardner) with Donaldson being re-elected and Gardner missing out as the SNP took the 2nd Labour seat and the Green re-took their seat. Subsequently, Lewis Ritchie has left the SNP following some unsavoury behaviour and allegedly punching somebody in a taxi. Issues wise, housing seems to be shaping up to be a major issue. At a hustings, the SLP candidate said that Leith Walk has the second highest density of housing in the UK (although I'm not sure what that's based on) and a preponderance of short-term lets seems to be causing some disquiet. Otherwise, the trams might be back on the agenda following a council decision to extend the current route to Newhaven through Leith Walk, although this doesn't seem so far to generating quite the anger of old. I'll provide more information on the candidates soon... I went to see our production of "Trainspotting" tonight. No politics mentioned although of course Leith Central station does play a rather crucial role. |
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Post by finsobruce on Mar 20, 2019 23:46:44 GMT
I went to see our production of "Trainspotting" tonight. No politics mentioned although of course Leith Central station does play a rather crucial role. fascinated to hear how you reproduced the "Toilet" scene...?  We didn't as it was "invented" for the film, which came after the play. There is a disgusting toilet which the actor hade to plunge his hand in to retrieve the suppositories full of drugs, which was bad enough.
Those who aren't familiar with this particular piece of Scottish writing will gather that Walter Scott, it most certainly ain't.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 20, 2019 23:49:38 GMT
That reminds me T2 Trainspotting is on Netflix now. I started watching it a few weeks ago but fell asleep about 20 minutes in (which is no comment on the film - I always do that). I must try again
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Post by finsobruce on Mar 20, 2019 23:52:58 GMT
That reminds me T2 Trainspotting is on Netflix now. I started watching it a few weeks ago but fell asleep about 20 minutes in (which is no comment on the film - I always do that). I must try again Tickets still available!
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 20, 2019 23:58:41 GMT
That reminds me T2 Trainspotting is on Netflix now. I started watching it a few weeks ago but fell asleep about 20 minutes in (which is no comment on the film - I always do that). I must try again Tickets still available!
I saw a stage version of Trainspotting in (I think) Cambridge many years ago. I couldn't understand a fucking word they were saying (or to be precise I could only understand one word, which was in fact the word 'fucking' (therefore approximately half the script)) |
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Post by finsobruce on Mar 21, 2019 0:00:16 GMT
I saw a stage version of Trainspotting in (I think) Cambridge many years ago. I couldn't understand a fucking word they were saying (or to be precise I could only understand one word, which was in fact the word 'fucking' (therefore approximately half the script)) Surely at least two words....?  |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 21, 2019 0:05:49 GMT
I saw a stage version of Trainspotting in (I think) Cambridge many years ago. I couldn't understand a fucking word they were saying (or to be precise I could only understand one word, which was in fact the word 'fucking' (therefore approximately half the script)) Surely at least two words....? Yes but I didn't want to say the other word on a family forum |
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Post by finsobruce on Mar 21, 2019 0:07:34 GMT
Surely at least two words....? Yes but I didn't want to say the other word on a family forum I think we're past the watershed now, but thank you for your restraint. |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,902
|
Post by Tony Otim on Mar 21, 2019 6:57:58 GMT
Being a good Green, let's engage in some recycling. This was my preview for Leith Walk in 2017: Electorally, the ward elected 1 each from SNP, Lab, LD and Green in 2007. The Lib Dem collapse in 2012 allowed Labour to capture a second seat (Nick Gardner - their candidate this time round). Then in 2015, Deirdre Brock (SNP) resigned following her election as MP for Edinburgh North & Leith and Maggie Chapman (Green and co-convenor of the party) resigned to focus on the upcoming Scottish Parliament Elections where she was standing in North East Scotland. The ensuing double by-election saw Lewis Ritchie hold the SNP seat and Marion Donaldson take the Green seat for Labour. This left labour with 3 councillors on a by-election vote share of c.25%, so in 2017 only 2 re-stood (Donaldson and Gardner) with Donaldson being re-elected and Gardner missing out as the SNP took the 2nd Labour seat and the Green re-took their seat. Subsequently, Lewis Ritchie has left the SNP following some unsavoury behaviour and allegedly punching somebody in a taxi. Issues wise, housing seems to be shaping up to be a major issue. At a hustings, the SLP candidate said that Leith Walk has the second highest density of housing in the UK (although I'm not sure what that's based on) and a preponderance of short-term lets seems to be causing some disquiet. Otherwise, the trams might be back on the agenda following a council decision to extend the current route to Newhaven through Leith Walk, although this doesn't seem so far to generating quite the anger of old. I'll provide more information on the candidates soon... I went to see our production of "Trainspotting" tonight. No politics mentioned although of course Leith Central station does play a rather crucial role. The site of the old station is of course be in Leith ward rather than Leith Walk ward... |
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Post by finsobruce on Mar 21, 2019 7:20:55 GMT
I went to see our production of "Trainspotting" tonight. No politics mentioned although of course Leith Central station does play a rather crucial role. The site of the old station is of course be in Leith ward rather than Leith Walk ward... Close enough for a railways link! |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,902
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Post by Tony Otim on Mar 21, 2019 11:00:49 GMT
The candidates for Leith Walk:
ALEXANDER, Steven (UKIP)
Most of the candidates live either in or very close to ward. Laird and Scott live further away in Edinburgh, but Alexander is the only candidate to live outside Edinburgh, in Bathgate. To be honest, this will probably be less of drag on his vote than being a UKIP candidate in an area where they are unlikely to get much traction.
CALDWELL, Jack (Liberal Democrat)
Stood as an independent candidate in Edinburgh Northern and Leith in 2016 Scottish elections (getting 1344 votes, 3.6% and finishing just behind the Lib Dems). From what I remember he ran quite a sensible and well-managed campaign with some good policies. Unlikely to do particularly well here, but might be a positive asset for the Lib Dems moving forward.
GARDNER, Nick (Labour)
As mentioned above, Nick Gardner was Labour's second councillor for the ward from 2012-2017 when he stood and lost his seat. I'd moved out of the ward by the time he was elected here.
ILLINGWORTH, Kevin (Independent)
Is the candidate for the Save Meadowbank campaign, which has been running for well over a decade since plans were first announced to pull down the stadium and sell the land for housing. This has now been changed to replacing it with a new sports complex with a limited amount of housing and commercial properties, so to some extent Meadowbank has already been saved, but there remains a fight over some of the details. The complex itself is now shut pending the re-build. Meadowbank is not actually in this ward (it's in Craigentinny Duddingston) but especially the Eastern parts of the ward would have looked to it as the local sports centre.
JACOBSEN, David Don (Socialist Labour Party)
Somewhat of a veteran candidate - he stood in the ward in 2017 and has also stood for Socialist Labour in General Elections in Edinburgh North & Leith in 2010 and as far back as 2001.
LAIRD, Tim (Libertarian)
A regular candidate in Edinburgh - he stood in the 2015 by-election here getting 17 votes. He stood in Inverleith in 2017, coming last with 32 votes and in Edinburgh Central (which does not contain any of this ward) in the 2016 Scottish Elections.
MCCROSKIE, Dan (Conservative)
Possibly the most well-travelled politically of the candidates here. He was the 2017 GE candidate in Na H-Eileanan Iar, achieving a very credible result, and has previously stood in a council by-election in Ayr in 2015. (I'm assuming that these are the same Dan McCroskie and the Scottish Conservatives don't have multiple Dan McCroskies)
MUNN, Rob (SNP)
Was previously councillor for Leith Ward from 2007-2012 and deputy leader of the SNP group on the council. He lost out in 2012 when the SNP over-nominated and his running mate, Adam McVey, beat him to a seat. Adam McVey is now the council leader, which must cause some interesting reflections for Mr Munn.
SCOTT, John Ferguson (Independent)
Another frequent candidate - he got 26 votes in the 2015 by-election here. Also stood in Corstorphine/Murrayfield in 2017 (getting 92 votes) in Drumbrae/Gyle in 2012 (getting 90 votes). These 2 wards are more local to his home address in the West of the City.
SLATER, Lorna (Green)
Lorna was the Green candidate in Edinburgh North & Leith in 2017 General Election and has been active in the local party for a while.
STIRLING, Paul Mitchell (For Britain)
I know nothing about Mr Stirling, but Edinburgh generally is unlikely to be particularly fruitful territory for For Britain and this is likely to be one of the least favourable wards.
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Post by Penddu on Mar 21, 2019 11:29:02 GMT
MERTHYR
This will be a Independent 300, Lab 200 Independent 200, Conservatives 25 (if they are lucky)
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No WEP, Brexit party or TIG for example.
