Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 21, 2019 13:10:39 GMT
The best-ever results for GPS and GLP, the worst-ever for SPS and FDP (and for a Blocher-led SVP). Still, most interesting, i'd say, is, that the TurnOut did not increase, as the antiClimateChange-demonstrations and the exploding number of PostalVotes from cities had indicated (and all pundits had forecast as a consequence) - it was decreasing by 3.5% to just 45%! So it seems, that on the one hand more young greenish voters participated, but at the same time lots of conservative Christians and farmers plagued by the heat in the last 2 years stood at home; also liberals unhappy with FDP's new green positions. Thanks again for the brilliant information! Interesting about the low turnout and the green vote increase! Maybe low turnout doesn't mean that the radical element hasn't turned out? Or maybe the older generation are a bit more radically thought? Unfortunately it usually takes some time for GfS (univ.Bern) and Sotomo (univ.Zürich) and ForsSelects (univ.Lausanne) to come out with their surveys. Concerning those huge (for Swiss levels) demonstrations of mostly pupils we have to remember, that voting starts in CH only with 18 and that the demonstrators were quasi alltogether the highly educated (from Gymnasium), who are greenish/leftish anyway and represent not more than a minority of pupils. (Trainees will think&vote very differently!) So the GREENS-wave was caused by those, who didn't participate in the demos, but were affected by the pictures&articles. |
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Post by mrpastelito on Oct 21, 2019 13:14:33 GMT
Well it certainly looks like the Swiss are no longer fond of Rosti.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 21, 2019 13:27:05 GMT
A big triumph for the left yesterday; while during the XXth socialism ended in elections always 10-15% below what demographics indicated as normal in other countries, ecologism might fit far better to CH. (The Alpine areas are alltogether - see FrancheComte&Savoy, Alsace, BaWü&Bavaria, Vorarlberg&Tyrol, SouthTyrol - good ground for them.)
A small loser were the Socialists, who were predicted to stagnate (what looked always a little bit fishy, given the cantonal ElectionResults and the sharp increases polled for GPS).
In the long run they might be even the big loser, as an oldfashioned 16%-party is not unlikely to be replaced by an identical, but more trendy 13%-ally. So far SPS has been quasi the serious&capable left, while GPS was not taken entirely serious&capable.
Already now they are one of 4 medium-sized parties (in the range of 11-16%) and are not really entitled for a second minister any longer.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 21, 2019 13:30:17 GMT
Well it certainly looks like the Swiss are no longer fond of Rosti. Do You refer to the RöstiGraben or to Albert Rösti, SVP's uninspiring PartyPresident (or both)? |
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Post by mrpastelito on Oct 21, 2019 13:40:20 GMT
Well it certainly looks like the Swiss are no longer fond of Rosti. Do You refer to the RöstiGraben or to Albert Rösti, SVP's uninspiring PartyPresident (or both)? The latter. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 21, 2019 13:48:37 GMT
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 21, 2019 15:35:50 GMT
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 21, 2019 17:59:19 GMT
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 21, 2019 18:05:59 GMT
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 21, 2019 19:09:49 GMT
That Green result in Ticino is a surprise.
Has anyone seen a reliable map at Gemeinde level? I'd like to see how Staefa and Hombrechtikon in Zurich voted.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 21, 2019 19:12:41 GMT
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 21, 2019 22:22:28 GMT
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Toylyyev
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Post by Toylyyev on Oct 29, 2019 12:38:55 GMT
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 31, 2019 15:46:21 GMT
LeftRight based on PreferenceVotes for own&other parties:  |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 31, 2019 15:48:08 GMT
VoteStreams according to the german "Institut für WahlForschung …":  |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 31, 2019 15:49:56 GMT
VoteStreams according to the german "Institut für WahlForschung …": Hard to believe, that SVP and FDP should have lost much to GPS (and more than to GLP). |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 31, 2019 18:31:21 GMT
Changes 2015-2019 (black=minus): FDP:  GLP:  GPS:  SPS:  SVP:  |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 31, 2019 18:34:51 GMT
Gains&losses from which other parties (according to SOTOMO): GLP:  GPS:  |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Nov 3, 2019 17:56:31 GMT
Valais/Wallis elected its 2 StändeRäte today.
As always since VS sends deputies to Bern 2 from CVP were chosen. But apart from the first woman ever the sensation was, that the SPS-contender came extremely close (helped by the fact, that SVP ran too). Only german UpperWallis saved CVP. For pundits no surprise. (I personally - with no real ambition to be one - hadn't ruled out a victory for the left [supported there by many immigrated Liberals&Radicals in thriving LowerValais and oldfashioned FDPs with their anticlerical tradition in catholic cantons].)
This tendency in lower VS means, that basically the whole of French CH will be split ~ 50%:50% Left:Right in future.
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Toylyyev
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Post by Toylyyev on Nov 3, 2019 18:37:49 GMT
Valais/Wallis elected its 2 StändeRäte today. As always since VS sends deputies to Bern 2 from CVP were chosen. But apart from the first woman ever the sensation was, that the SPS-contender came extremely close (helped by the fact, that SVP ran too). Only german UpperWallis saved CVP. For pundits no surprise. (I personally - with no real ambition to be one - hadn't ruled out a victory for the left [supported there by many immigrated Liberals&Radicals in thriving LowerValais and oldfashioned FDPs with their anticlerical tradition in catholic cantons].) This tendency in lower VS means, that basically the whole of French CH will be split ~ 50%:50% Left:Right in future. Differential turnout made the difference, not for the first time in Switzerland.
Central Valais 52.82%
Lower Valais 44.01%
Upper Valais 55.21%
Valais 50.43% (+4.22 on 2015)
On a uniformily distributed turnout of 50.43% across the canton the PS/SP would have won by 550 votes instead of losing by 1370. Result by region: www.rts.ch/info/regions/valais/10833615-le-duo-pdc-beat-rieder-marianne-maret-elu-au-conseil-des-etats-.html#timeline-anchor-1572792184418 |
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