Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 18, 2019 3:06:58 GMT
In PostalVoting, which is very common in SwitzerLand, InCreases are reported from the cities, but also from the rather nonurban (though commuting) AarGau, while it's stagnating in CentralCH.
So it seems, that the greenish ClimateProtest-youth is participating this time.
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,824
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 20, 2019 11:05:27 GMT
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,824
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 20, 2019 11:06:44 GMT
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,824
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 20, 2019 11:08:52 GMT
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,824
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 20, 2019 11:10:58 GMT
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,824
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 20, 2019 11:11:55 GMT
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,824
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 20, 2019 11:13:42 GMT
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,824
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 20, 2019 11:15:21 GMT
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,824
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 20, 2019 11:23:06 GMT
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,824
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 20, 2019 11:26:42 GMT
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,824
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 20, 2019 11:34:09 GMT
SVP seems to lose stronger than expected.
In AarGau, where SVP was hit by several accidents, they are projected to be reduced by more than 6%, what is not really surprising.
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,824
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 20, 2019 16:20:00 GMT
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Eastwood
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Post by Eastwood on Oct 20, 2019 19:50:43 GMT
Is the expectation that Greens will get a chance to nominate a Federal Councillor?
Presumably it would be the FDP who lose out but both of their Ministers are fairly recently elected so that may be tricky?
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,824
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 20, 2019 20:19:36 GMT
Is the expectation that Greens will get a chance to nominate a Federal Councillor? Presumably it would be the FDP who lose out but both of their Ministers are fairly recently elected so that may be tricky? I wrote on exactly this in the politics-thread: Already 1 year ago, when the GREEN wave was not detectable, it was likely, that MedLeft would demonstrate SVP&FDP their majority in the joint parliament. (Especially, since the 2 new FDP-ministers have often voted with the SVP-ones, what had not happened with the former FDP-Romand.) Now it is - despite all Swiss distaste for abrupt change - quite inevitable, that the MagicFormula (2:2:2:1) created 60 years ago will be replaced. Probably Left&CVP don't want SVP in (semi)opposition once again, instead they might prefer to deelect FDP's Cassis. Apropos: It's obvious, that at some time the concordance-government will fall and a coalition will take over. Unfortunately the direct election of the ministers was proposed recently by SVP (and formerly by SPS) and was widely rejected in a referendum, so it cannot be introduced in the near future. |
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Post by seanryanj on Oct 20, 2019 23:13:04 GMT
Is the expectation that Greens will get a chance to nominate a Federal Councillor? Presumably it would be the FDP who lose out but both of their Ministers are fairly recently elected so that may be tricky? I wrote on exactly this in the politics-thread: Already 1 year ago, when the GREEN wave was not detectable, it was likely, that MedLeft would demonstrate SVP&FDP their majority in the joint parliament. (Especially, since the 2 new FDP-ministers have often voted with the SVP-ones, what had not happened with the former FDP-Romand.) Now it is - despite all Swiss distaste for abrupt change - quite inevitable, that the MagicFormula (2:2:2:1) created 60 years ago will be replaced. Probably Left&CVP don't want SVP in (semi)opposition once again, instead they might prefer to deelect FDP's Cassis. Apropos: It's obvious, that at some time the concordance-government will fall and a coalition will take over. Unfortunately the direct election of the ministers was proposed recently by SVP (and formerly by SPS) and was widely rejected in a referendum, so it cannot be introduced in the near future. Many many thanks for the great coverage! I have to say as an election junkie ( like so many on this site) I have to say the swiss system almost seems like the most undemocratic thing on earth! |
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Post by seanryanj on Oct 20, 2019 23:21:22 GMT
I wrote on exactly this in the politics-thread: Already 1 year ago, when the GREEN wave was not detectable, it was likely, that MedLeft would demonstrate SVP&FDP their majority in the joint parliament. (Especially, since the 2 new FDP-ministers have often voted with the SVP-ones, what had not happened with the former FDP-Romand.) Now it is - despite all Swiss distaste for abrupt change - quite inevitable, that the MagicFormula (2:2:2:1) created 60 years ago will be replaced. Probably Left&CVP don't want SVP in (semi)opposition once again, instead they might prefer to deelect FDP's Cassis. Apropos: It's obvious, that at some time the concordance-government will fall and a coalition will take over. Unfortunately the direct election of the ministers was proposed recently by SVP (and formerly by SPS) and was widely rejected in a referendum, so it cannot be introduced in the near future. Many many thanks for the great coverage! I have to say as an election junkie ( like so many on this site) I have to say the swiss system almost seems like the most undemocratic thing on earth! Unless I have this wrong? Are u automatically entitled to seats in cabinet or can a coalition vote their own in? |
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,824
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 20, 2019 23:36:57 GMT
I wrote on exactly this in the politics-thread: Already 1 year ago, when the GREEN wave was not detectable, it was likely, that MedLeft would demonstrate SVP&FDP their majority in the joint parliament. (Especially, since the 2 new FDP-ministers have often voted with the SVP-ones, what had not happened with the former FDP-Romand.) Now it is - despite all Swiss distaste for abrupt change - quite inevitable, that the MagicFormula (2:2:2:1) created 60 years ago will be replaced. Probably Left&CVP don't want SVP in (semi)opposition once again, instead they might prefer to deelect FDP's Cassis. Apropos: It's obvious, that at some time the concordance-government will fall and a coalition will take over. Unfortunately the direct election of the ministers was proposed recently by SVP (and formerly by SPS) and was widely rejected in a referendum, so it cannot be introduced in the near future. Many many thanks for the great coverage! I have to say as an election junkie ( like so many on this site) I have to say the swiss system almost seems like the most undemocratic thing on earth! For this statement any patriotic Swiss - who are proud for being the eldest European democracy (sure, for centuries it had been an oligarchic Republic of Alpine farmers and burghers, but since 1846, it was really Europe's first full democracy, thus despised by v.METTERNICH as "Europe's morast") - would murder You! But exactly this relatively long tradition (and often also the mentality of the people) let it be a conservative kind of democracy (just like the USA). |
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,824
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 20, 2019 23:48:08 GMT
Many many thanks for the great coverage! I have to say as an election junkie ( like so many on this site) I have to say the swiss system almost seems like the most undemocratic thing on earth! Unless I have this wrong? Are u automatically entitled to seats in cabinet or can a coalition vote their own in? In 1959 the 3 big parties at ~20% (FDP, SPS, CVP) and the smaller SVP (~11%) agreed to portion the ministers 2:2:2:1. This is not fixed by law (let alone written into the constitution), but pure convention; already altered in 2003, when the SVP got a second seat from CVP (and de facto 2007, when the parliament elected an exSVP; and 2015, when SVP got the second seat back). So far the bourgeois parties have stated, that a GREEN-success had to durate for several terms in order to prevent a permanent change of composition. Yet, with 13% for GPS alone and 21% for both GREEN-parties and 42% - exactly 3/7 - for the Lefties (incl. GreenLiberals and EVP) the MagicFormula will have to be changed to 2:2:1:1:1. |
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,824
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 21, 2019 0:01:09 GMT
The best-ever results for GPS and GLP, the worst-ever for SPS and FDP (and for a Blocher-led SVP).
Still, most interesting, i'd say, is, that the TurnOut did not increase, as the antiClimateChange-demonstrations and the exploding number of PostalVotes from cities had indicated (and all pundits had forecast as a consequence) - it was decreasing by 3.5% to just 45%!
So it seems, that on the one hand more young greenish voters participated, but at the same time lots of conservative Christians and farmers plagued by the heat in the last 2 years stood at home; also liberals unhappy with FDP's new green positions.
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Post by seanryanj on Oct 21, 2019 1:50:20 GMT
The best-ever results for GPS and GLP, the worst-ever for SPS and FDP (and for a Blocher-led SVP). Still, most interesting, i'd say, is, that the TurnOut did not increase, as the antiClimateChange-demonstrations and the exploding number of PostalVotes from cities had indicated (and all pundits had forecast as a consequence) - it was decreasing by 3.5% to just 45%! So it seems, that on the one hand more young greenish voters participated, but at the same time lots of conservative Christians and farmers plagued by the heat in the last 2 years stood at home; also liberals unhappy with FDP's new green positions. Thanks again for the brilliant information! Interesting about the low turnout and the green vote increase! Maybe low turnout doesn't mean that the radical element hasn't turned out? Or maybe the older generation are a bit more radically thought? |
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