spqr
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,774
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Post by spqr on Apr 8, 2019 17:10:01 GMT
Oh the remain campaigning was dreadful. Sorry if I’ve implied in previous posts that I thought it was good (or better)! Indeed it was dreadful and its why I'm incredibly nervous about a 2nd one. I not only think Leave would win again I think they'd win by a bigger margin and this will be entirely due to (more so than the 1st ref) the awful campaign the Remain camp will inevitably run. It will again be dominated by corporate suits and politicians NOBODY likes who will repeat the same bland statistics that lost them the 1st ref but with an added patronising flourish of "now don't be stupid and vote to leave again ok"
Meanwhile the Leave campaign can just run on a "Tell them again" platform and paint the whole thing as an establishment stitch up, they won't even need to mention a single supposed benefit of Brexit, instead just focus on the "Us vs the Elite" rhetoric and they'll win with 56-59% of the vote me thinks and that sadly is a mandate for something approaching a hard Brexit.
You're overstating the importance of political campaigning, I think (as do most politically-motivated people). Leave won because underlying populist resentment was already there, ripened after years of the political classes taking the electorate for granted and assuming they would put up with whatever was dished out to them. But any new referendum will inevitably take place in a different context from the last one, and that may not work to the Leavers' advantage. After all, they'll have to put their own massive differences aside (far bigger than what they were three years ago), and account not only for their often self-defeating activities since 2016 but the failure of the government to exit the EU in a dignified manner. I agree with you on the "now don't be stupid and vote to leave again ok" point, though. Some people just cannot help themselves.
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Post by timrollpickering on Apr 8, 2019 17:18:17 GMT
A real referendum as opposed to? One on the Lisbonstitution.
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Post by yellowperil on Apr 8, 2019 18:34:10 GMT
It is not often a complex situation can be described by a few specific words. But I consider the current Brexit kerfuffle can be adequately covered by just six words. Most MPs are lying little sh1ts. Six words but one of those is superfluous, surely. "Little" adds nothing.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Apr 8, 2019 21:30:08 GMT
Do you still not grasp just how useless the remain campaign was? How they entirely failed to understand that it wasn't about throwing around lots of statistics and facts, and that people who voted leave largely did so because of how they felt, not what they thought? Let alone a message that boiled down to "Unhappy with the status quo? Vote for the status quo!"
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Apr 8, 2019 21:36:23 GMT
We didn't have a debate though. We had one side saying it was a bad idea and the other screeching 'Project fear' at every opportunity whilst promising it would all be sunshine and unicorns if we left. & lets not forget circumstances changed over the past decade. The EU wasn't even a top ten issue in the 2010 election. The EU question had been settled, it was an opportunity for the Lib Dems to make some noise different from the LabCons. It took a massive global financial crisis and a huge anti-immigrant campaign run by Brexiteers for the EU to become a big issue. Who are you to determine how happy you are with the quality of the debate? The turnout was a record high. It was enough of a debate that Remain were happy with it on eve of poll. You suggest the EU question and been settled? That suggestion would appear to be delusional. It took massive global financial crisis you say. I say the EU was a factor in that crisis. The Euro was built on borrowing. You claim a huge anti immigration campaign. Indeed, it was EU wide. Turns out that open borders migration of the sort I favour is not universally popular. I'm also intrigued by this "huge anti-immigrant campaign run by Brexiteers for the EU to become a big issue". What to make of this well-known footage of a well-known Brexiteer running an anti-immigrant campaign.
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Post by Merseymike on Apr 8, 2019 21:36:46 GMT
Do you still not grasp just how useless the remain campaign was? How they entirely failed to understand that it wasn't about throwing around lots of statistics and facts, and that people who voted leave largely did so because of how they felt, not what they thought? Let alone a message that boiled down to "Unhappy with the status quo? Vote for the status quo!" Don't remind me. I remember seeing Harman and Cameron schlepping along that supermarket aisle and thinking, hell, I'm voting Leave. I didn't, but if you were uncertain. it would have been the obvious thing to do
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Post by finsobruce on Apr 8, 2019 22:15:49 GMT
Wow, we're all now reduced to arguing about who started it. I mentioned it once, but I think I got away with it.
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Izzyeviel
Lib Dem
I stayed up for Hartlepools
Posts: 3,279
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Post by Izzyeviel on Apr 9, 2019 10:23:32 GMT
We didn't have a debate though. We had one side saying it was a bad idea and the other screeching 'Project fear' at every opportunity whilst promising it would all be sunshine and unicorns if we left. & lets not forget circumstances changed over the past decade. The EU wasn't even a top ten issue in the 2010 election. The EU question had been settled, it was an opportunity for the Lib Dems to make some noise different from the LabCons. It took a massive global financial crisis and a huge anti-immigrant campaign run by Brexiteers for the EU to become a big issue. Who are you to determine how happy you are with the quality of the debate? The turnout was a record high. It was enough of a debate that Remain were happy with it on eve of poll. You suggest the EU question and been settled? That suggestion would appear to be delusional. It took massive global financial crisis you say. I say the EU was a factor in that crisis. The Euro was built on borrowing. You claim a huge anti immigration campaign. Indeed, it was EU wide. Turns out that open borders migration of the sort I favour is not universally popular. The BNP won seats in the Euros, but then lost them. There is limited appetite for racist shite, but the underlying concern is real and international. Far down the list of things I am narked about is that this EU nonsense has put back my wish for global free movement of labour back a generation. Considering most MP's don't understand how the EU works or what the implications of Brexit are going to be, it's safe to presume the quality of debate was dire. Doesn't matter what you think of the Euro, we're not in it. You choose to forget that UKIP were getting nowhere until they started using the anti-immigrant rhetoric of the BNP. For much of the past 40 years EU membership hasn't been a concern & yet we're led to believe an impulse decision made on the back of financial & refugee crises & by playing to people's fears about the NHS is perfectly sound & shouldn't be ever questioned. It's like making a decision when you're drunk & following through with it when you're sober. It's not going to end well.
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Izzyeviel
Lib Dem
I stayed up for Hartlepools
Posts: 3,279
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Post by Izzyeviel on Apr 9, 2019 10:37:18 GMT
Do you still not grasp just how useless the remain campaign was? How they entirely failed to understand that it wasn't about throwing around lots of statistics and facts, and that people who voted leave largely did so because of how they felt, not what they thought? Well to be fair there was logic to it. Economic issues have tended to be the biggest factor in winning elections, whoever pushes the best message on the economy tends to win. What the Remain campaign failed to do was engage in the wider issues, and made no attempt to change tack. It reminds me of the polling for Obama's/Trumps tax cuts. You may be better off on paper, but if people don't notice the tax cut & don't feel better off its not going to help you at the ballot box. If you're being told by a campaign jobs will be lost if you vote a certain way, then some people will think its hysteria, some will be like 'I have a shit job anyway' or 'i'm retired I won't be affected'. etc. There was no attempt to explain why the EU exists and what its for, the good it does for the UK, how it helps the UK on the world stage, the impact the UK has had on EU development, etc'. Anyway, back to Newport. Has anyone actually been there?
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hedgehog
Non-Aligned
Enter your message here...
Posts: 6,826
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Post by hedgehog on Apr 9, 2019 16:12:34 GMT
Do you still not grasp just how useless the remain campaign was? How they entirely failed to understand that it wasn't about throwing around lots of statistics and facts, and that people who voted leave largely did so because of how they felt, not what they thought? Well to be fair there was logic to it. Economic issues have tended to be the biggest factor in winning elections, whoever pushes the best message on the economy tends to win. What the Remain campaign failed to do was engage in the wider issues, and made no attempt to change tack. It reminds me of the polling for Obama's/Trumps tax cuts. You may be better off on paper, but if people don't notice the tax cut & don't feel better off its not going to help you at the ballot box. If you're being told by a campaign jobs will be lost if you vote a certain way, then some people will think its hysteria, some will be like 'I have a shit job anyway' or 'i'm retired I won't be affected'. etc. There was no attempt to explain why the EU exists and what its for, the good it does for the UK, how it helps the UK on the world stage, the impact the UK has had on EU development, etc'. Anyway, back to Newport. Has anyone actually been there? Back in the 90's I spent 2 days there, it was cold, wet and depressing.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Apr 9, 2019 16:19:39 GMT
Anyway, back to Newport. Has anyone actually been there? I work there (on the edge not in the city centre). There’s a reason I live in the centre of Cardiff.
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 14,543
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Post by john07 on Apr 10, 2019 15:47:21 GMT
Anyway, back to Newport. Has anyone actually been there? I work there (on the edge not in the city centre). There’s a reason I live in the centre of Cardiff. I have been to Newport a depressingly large number of times. Apart from a couple of trips to Cardiff (one in the 1960s), Newport is the only place in South Wales I have ever visited. I can see why anyone would choose to live in Cardiff.
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
Posts: 3,558
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Post by cibwr on Apr 16, 2019 17:27:31 GMT
The city has a fascinating history. Once the largest town in Wales, and under the Marcher lords the import duties were 10% of Bristol so flourished. The last place in the UK which tried an armed revolution, and its bus station will be bigger than Cardiff's :-)
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Apr 16, 2019 19:38:58 GMT
its bus station will be bigger than Cardiff's :-) Not hard at the moment!
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,288
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Post by Tony Otim on Apr 16, 2019 19:41:24 GMT
The city has a fascinating history. Once the largest town in Wales, and under the Marcher lords the import duties were 10% of Bristol so flourished. The last place in the UK which tried an armed revolution, and its bus station will be bigger than Cardiff's :-) But will it be bigger than Preston's 😉
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Post by greenchristian on Apr 16, 2019 19:44:25 GMT
The city has a fascinating history. Once the largest town in Wales, and under the Marcher lords the import duties were 10% of Bristol so flourished. The last place in the UK which tried an armed revolution, and its bus station will be bigger than Cardiff's :-) But will it be bigger than Preston's 😉 Preston has a bus station? Bet it's a bit rubbish.
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,172
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Post by Chris from Brum on Apr 16, 2019 19:53:15 GMT
I think I was once told that due to Monmouthshire swapping between England and Wales pre-1974, that Newport RFC were formerly affiliated to the RFU rather than the WRU, with whom they had an associate membership. But this may be b0110x.
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Post by gwynthegriff on Apr 16, 2019 20:14:05 GMT
Only ever been to Newport Bus Station once, in the 1970s.
It was huge and bleak.
Its redeeming feature was the presence of buses from Jones of Aberbeeg, one of the very few National Bus Company operators using blue as a livery. (Most were red or green) Very attractive.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,282
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Post by Sibboleth on Apr 16, 2019 21:37:07 GMT
I think I was once told that due to Monmouthshire swapping between England and Wales pre-1974, that Newport RFC were formerly affiliated to the RFU rather than the WRU, with whom they had an associate membership. But this may be b0110x. They were one of the founder members of the WRU. Pontypool (also in Monmouthshire o/c) was as well.
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Post by froome on Apr 17, 2019 6:41:48 GMT
Only ever been to Newport Bus Station once, in the 1970s. It was huge and bleak. Its redeeming feature was the presence of buses from Jones of Aberbeeg, one of the very few National Bus Company operators using blue as a livery. (Most were red or green) Very attractive. During the 50s and early 60s almost every tiny community in every south Wales valley had its own bus company running services. And at that time Cardiff bus station was vast and linked well into the railway station. How times change.
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