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Post by Deleted on Apr 5, 2019 22:51:54 GMT
Tories won Gower in 2015 - Lab held for 116 years. Blaenau Gwent (safest Lab seat in the country in ‘83 and ‘92) was lost in 2005. Every election throws up results like that, without it actually meaning anything. Blaenau Gwent is now back being safe Labour, and we retook Gower fairly comfortably last year. Gower should never have been lost.
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European Lefty
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Post by European Lefty on Apr 6, 2019 3:48:21 GMT
Every election throws up results like that, without it actually meaning anything. Blaenau Gwent is now back being safe Labour, and we retook Gower fairly comfortably last year. Gower should never have been lost. Your point? No, it probably shouldn't have been. But that doesn't make it part of any wider trend.
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Post by finsobruce on Apr 6, 2019 7:00:41 GMT
If the Welsh Tories were as dynamic as their Scottish counterparts, Newport West might've been gone blue last night! But it didn't and it won't, because at the end of the day Jeremy Corbyn is a far better strategist than May.. Well the strategy is down to Starmer. Corbyn has at least had the sense to let him take the lead. Although i suspect this doesn't entirely stop briefing against him.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 6, 2019 10:08:33 GMT
Every election throws up results like that, without it actually meaning anything. Blaenau Gwent is now back being safe Labour, and we retook Gower fairly comfortably last year. Gower should never have been lost. Indeed not, and it was only shocking complacency from Labour that allowed it to happen.
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Post by rivers10 on Apr 6, 2019 10:40:58 GMT
Without meaning to rain on anyone on this sites parade am I the only one who thinks some people are getting a bit ahead of themselves with the "this result is not what Labour should be achieving if its going to win at the next election" talk
Surely the polling in the run up to the last election plus Copeland and then the actual result in the 2017 election shows little to no parallels can be drawn between by-elections and a future GE result? And before anyone mentions how awful the Tory campaign was in 2017 yes it was but that's precisely the point, events in the final weeks before an election can drastically change the landscape so going on about midterms and the like seems like old hat to me.
My conclusion, this was a poor result for Lab but a predictable and not very worrying one in a remarkably bland by-election with a lot of small party action that took support from both main parties. The most notable factor was the notable but not really impressive rise in the UKIP vote which was nowhere near as significant as what we saw in the 2010-15 period so anyone predicting the second coming of UKIP are probably way off. After that it was a load of nothing if you ask me.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 6, 2019 15:11:49 GMT
They wouldn't be seen dead there!!! Tories won Gower in 2015 - Lab held for 116 years. Blaenau Gwent (safest Lab seat in the country in ‘83 and ‘92) was lost in 2005. Blaenau Gwent was a special circumstance, similar to Tatton in '97. Yes, it was a shock result but it's not really a particulary good example of one.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 6, 2019 15:28:22 GMT
Every election throws up results like that, without it actually meaning anything. Blaenau Gwent is now back being safe Labour, and we retook Gower fairly comfortably last year. Gower should never have been lost. the irony is UKIPs intervention probably took enough votes off Labour in 2015 but they went back to help them gain it back
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Post by Deleted on Apr 6, 2019 15:42:41 GMT
Tories won Gower in 2015 - Lab held for 116 years. Blaenau Gwent (safest Lab seat in the country in ‘83 and ‘92) was lost in 2005. Blaenau Gwent was a special circumstance, similar to Tatton in '97. Yes, it was a shock result but it's not really a particulary good example of one. Labour also lost the Rhondda seat in the Welsh Assembly on a 22% swing in 2016.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Apr 6, 2019 16:15:44 GMT
Blaenau Gwent was a special circumstance, similar to Tatton in '97. Yes, it was a shock result but it's not really a particulary good example of one. Labour also lost the Rhondda seat in the Welsh Assembly on a 22% swing in 2016. And ‘99. Of the five Assembly elections to date Labour have won three of them and Plaid two.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 6, 2019 16:20:37 GMT
Labour also lost the Rhondda seat in the Welsh Assembly on a 22% swing in 2016. And ‘99. Of the five Assembly elections to date Labour have won three of them and Plaid two. Well they can't have lost it on a 22% swing in 1999 because the Welsh Assembly didn't exist before that!
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Post by BossMan on Apr 6, 2019 16:25:42 GMT
A bit late onto the scene here, but anyway... Notwithstanding Paul Flynn's personal popularity, it is surely not a good result for Labour to fall by 12% and see a swing against them nearly nine years into a Conservative led government. I detect more than a slight upsurge, for the smaller parties also; a Brexit backlash, if you will.
But I'd agree we can't read much into by-elections anymore in the grand scheme of things. Copeland pointed to a Tory landslide (I viewed it as sort of the equivalent of Hull North in 1966); instead we got a hung parliament.
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Apr 6, 2019 16:33:41 GMT
There's a tendency for voters to view the Assembly as Wales County Council and to vote accordingly.
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Apr 6, 2019 16:39:21 GMT
Without meaning to rain on anyone on this sites parade am I the only one who thinks some people are getting a bit ahead of themselves with the "this result is not what Labour should be achieving if its going to win at the next election" talk Well it isn't, but then if there was an election tomorrow Labour wouldn't win a majority, would they? Doesn't mean that this will be the situation in a year, two years, six months, whatever, from now. But all of these are essentially stock talking points. Labour performed badly, so did the Tories; no one else actually did well. Ideal conditions, then, for the use of stock talking points.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 6, 2019 16:46:59 GMT
Without meaning to rain on anyone on this sites parade am I the only one who thinks some people are getting a bit ahead of themselves with the "this result is not what Labour should be achieving if its going to win at the next election" talk Well it isn't, but then if there was an election tomorrow Labour wouldn't win a majority, would they? Doesn't mean that this will be the situation in a year, two years, six months, whatever, from now. But all of these are essentially stock talking points. Labour performed badly, so did the Tories; no one else actually did well. Ideal conditions, then, for the use of stock talking points. Oh I don't know. What about Renew?
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Post by rivers10 on Apr 6, 2019 19:13:53 GMT
Well it isn't, but then if there was an election tomorrow Labour wouldn't win a majority, would they? Doesn't mean that this will be the situation in a year, two years, six months, whatever, from now. But all of these are essentially stock talking points. Labour performed badly, so did the Tories; no one else actually did well. Ideal conditions, then, for the use of stock talking points. Oh I don't know. What about Renew? If you were to believe what the average Twitter profile with FBPE in the name says then Renew should have won with 120% of the vote since apparently the entire country except the ERG and Nigel Farage now think Brexit is a terrible idea.
On a more serious note the FBPE brigade are actually trying to spin the result to fit their own narratives claiming that a "clearly pro Remain candidate" won an election in an "overwhelmingly pro Brexit seat" and therefore this is evidence of how much the country has turned against Brexit...nevermind that Newport West was estimated to have been 56% Leave so hardly Boston and the Labour candidate said she respected the ref result and was focused on avoiding no deal Brexit so hardly David Lammy.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 6, 2019 19:14:35 GMT
And ‘99. Of the five Assembly elections to date Labour have won three of them and Plaid two. Well they can't have lost it on a 22% swing in 1999 because the Welsh Assembly didn't exist before that! The 1999 Assembly election was a very poor performance for Labour in which they lost all sorts of seats they shouldn't have, including the Rhondda.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Apr 6, 2019 20:46:32 GMT
And ‘99. Of the five Assembly elections to date Labour have won three of them and Plaid two. Well they can't have lost it on a 22% swing in 1999 because the Welsh Assembly didn't exist before that! Come on then smart arse, just to continue to boost your post count and test your Oxbridge education what’s the swing from ‘97 to ‘99 97: Lab 74.5% PC 13.4% 99: Lab 40.5% PC 48.7% Different election, same electorate etc.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 6, 2019 20:55:38 GMT
Well they can't have lost it on a 22% swing in 1999 because the Welsh Assembly didn't exist before that! Come on then smart arse, just to continue to boost your post count and test your Oxbridge education what’s the swing from ‘97 to ‘99 97: Lab 74.5% PC 13.4% 99: Lab 40.5% PC 48.7% Different election, same electorate etc. Just pulling your leg!
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Post by jimboo2017 on Apr 6, 2019 21:50:56 GMT
There's a tendency for voters to view the Assembly as Wales County Council and to vote accordingly. Holyrood strives for such recognition
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Post by middleenglander on Apr 6, 2019 23:33:29 GMT
A few thoughts on Thursday's by-election taking a circa 35 year perspective, including Assembly of Wales elections (WA). Year of election | Labour share | Conservative share | Two party share | Swing | Swing | Electorate | 2019 | 39.6% | 31.3% | 70.9% |
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| 63,623 | 2017 | 52.3% | 39.3% | 91.6% | Lab to Con | 2.4% | 64,399 | 2016 WA | 43.8% | 29.0% | 72.8% | Lab to Con | 3.3% | ~ 62,100 | 2015 | 41.2% | 32.5% | 73.8% | Lab to Con | 0.2% | 62,137 | 2011 WA | 52.2% | 33.9% | 86.0% | Lab to Con | 5.0% | ~ 62,500
| 2010 | 41.3% | 32.3% | 73.6% | Lab to Con | 0.3% | 62,111 | 2007 WA | 40.5% | 34.6% | 75.1% | Con to Lab | 1.2% | ~ 59,000
| 2005 | 44.8% | 29.6% | 74.4% | Lab to Con | 3.5% | 60,303 | 2003 WA | 46.9% | 29.4% | 76.3% | Lab to Con | 4.6% | ~ 61,900 | 2001 | 52.7% | 26.2% | 78.9% | Lab to Con | 9.1% | 59,345 | 1999 WA | 47.6% | 28.2% | 75.8% | Lab to Con | 5.6% | ~ 57,300 | 1997 | 60.5% | 24.4% | 84.9% | Lab to Con | 13.7% | 53,914 | 1992 | 53.1% | 36.0% | 89.1% | Lab to Con | 4.4% | 54,871 | 1987 | 46.1% | 40.1% | 86.2% | Con to Lab | 1.2% | 55,455 | 1983 | 36.6% | 38.0% | 74.6% | Con to Lab | 4.8% | 54,125 |
* The Labour share of the vote was the lowest in all elections since 1983, when the Conservatives narrowly won the parliamentary seat by less than 600 votes - it was over 20% down on the 1997 share when Labour won its first landslide and almost 1% below 2007 (WA). * The Conservative share was lower in 1997, 1999 WA, 2001, 2003 WA and 2005, when Labour formed the UK Government, as well as 2016 WA - but only circa 1% down on 2010 and 2015 * The Labour plus Conservative share was the lowest in the recent history of the seat although only 3% or 4% on 1983, 2005, 2007 WA, 2010, 2015 ad 2016 WA - 2017 saw the highest two party share at over 91%, some 2½% above 1997 * There was a Labour to Conservative swing of 2.4% compared to 2017 but only a modest ~ ¼% compared to the 2010 and 2015 General Elections - the 2007 WA election was the only one since 1983 and 1987 when there was a Conservative to Labour swing * The electorate was relative stable from 1983 until after the 1997 General Election when it increased some 5,400 by 2001, - thereafter growing more slowly. * The number of valid votes cast on Thursday at 23,515 was very similar to that at some WA elections - 21,228 (for 2003 WA), 23,014 (2011 WA), 23,025 (2007 WA), 24,239 (1999 WA) and 27,380 (2016 WA)
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