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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 7, 2019 8:54:17 GMT
Surely the swing was from Conservative to Labour in 1992, 1997 and 2017. There was no swing in 1983 as it was a new seat but it had been notionally Labour in 1979 so the notional swing must have been the other way.
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Post by middleenglander on Apr 7, 2019 9:12:06 GMT
Surely the swing was from Conservative to Labour in 1992, 1997 and 2017. There was no swing in 1983 as it was a new seat but it had been notionally Labour in 1979 so the notional swing must have been the other way. Swing is 2019 from previous years, eg 2.4% Lab to Con is from 2017. The swing from 1983 (35 odd years ago) was 4.8% Con to Lab - Con won the seat then.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 7, 2019 9:13:39 GMT
Surely the swing was from Conservative to Labour in 1992, 1997 and 2017. There was no swing in 1983 as it was a new seat but it had been notionally Labour in 1979 so the notional swing must have been the other way. Swing is 2019 from previous years, eg 2.4% Lab to Con is from 2017. The swing from 1983 (35 odd years ago) was 4.8% Con to Lab - Con won the seat then. Ah I see I misunderstood. More coffee still needed..
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Apr 7, 2019 9:59:56 GMT
Oh I don't know. What about Renew? If you were to believe what the average Twitter profile with FBPE in the name says then Renew should have won with 120% of the vote since apparently the entire country except the ERG and Nigel Farage now think Brexit is a terrible idea.
On a more serious note the FBPE brigade are actually trying to spin the result to fit their own narratives claiming that a "clearly pro Remain candidate" won an election in an "overwhelmingly pro Brexit seat" and therefore this is evidence of how much the country has turned against Brexit...nevermind that Newport West was estimated to have been 56% Leave so hardly Boston and the Labour candidate said she respected the ref result and was focused on avoiding no deal Brexit so hardly David Lammy.
FBPE are just like any other social media political grouping in that they vastly overestimate the extent to which the average person cares about politics.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 7, 2019 10:07:20 GMT
But at least some of those groups talk to other people (whether online or in the "real world") occasionally, #FBPE seems a genuine hermetically sealed bubble.
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sirbenjamin
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Post by sirbenjamin on Apr 7, 2019 10:13:13 GMT
One for the psephological number crunchers:
If there is a 'typical' (based on thr last 30 years or so) uniform swingback to the governing party compared to by elections, does Newport West go Tory at the next GE?
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Post by rivers10 on Apr 7, 2019 10:54:13 GMT
I didn't think it was possible to beat the CyberNat's for sheer pig headedness but FBPE carry that trophy by a country mile. I've genuinely never seen anything like it, the level of spin and mental gymnastics to justify their outlook while simultaneously attacking and alienating every potential ally they could have had, the word "echo chamber" doesn't do them justice, I honestly am inclined to believe that FBPE has in fact been infiltrated by Pro Brexit types who run these accounts to make Remain voters seem like the most patronising a***holes imaginable.
Its telling that the only time I've ever come even remotely close to thinking Brexit might be something I could live with was at times when I thought it might be funny just to spite FBPE people. If your sole aim is stopping Brexit but your methods are peeving off arch Remainers like myself and providing incentives FOR Brexit then your movement is an abject failure.
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Post by finsobruce on Apr 7, 2019 11:06:44 GMT
If you were to believe what the average Twitter profile with FBPE in the name says then Renew should have won with 120% of the vote since apparently the entire country except the ERG and Nigel Farage now think Brexit is a terrible idea.
On a more serious note the FBPE brigade are actually trying to spin the result to fit their own narratives claiming that a "clearly pro Remain candidate" won an election in an "overwhelmingly pro Brexit seat" and therefore this is evidence of how much the country has turned against Brexit...nevermind that Newport West was estimated to have been 56% Leave so hardly Boston and the Labour candidate said she respected the ref result and was focused on avoiding no deal Brexit so hardly David Lammy.
FBPE are just like any other social media political grouping in that they vastly overestimate the extent to which the average person cares about politics. Ha! Yes.
Hang on... do they mean us? They surely can't..
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Apr 7, 2019 11:49:46 GMT
FBPE are just like any other social media political grouping in that they vastly overestimate the extent to which the average person cares about politics. Ha! Yes.
Hang on... do they mean us? They surely can't.. No, unlike FBPE a significant majority on here actually have a passing grasp of politics and how it operates. I was told by one of them last night I should vote LD or Green in May. I pointed out there isn’t a LD candidate standing in the entire City, and the nearest Green candidate was about six miles away. I was then instructed I must vote Independent, when I pointed out my Independent candidate stood as UKIP four years ago I was blocked. :/
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Post by finsobruce on Apr 7, 2019 11:56:33 GMT
Ha! Yes.
Hang on... do they mean us? They surely can't.. No, unlike FBPE a significant majority on here actually have a passing grasp of politics and how it operates. I was told by one of them last night I should vote LD or Green in May. I pointed out there isn’t a LD candidate standing in the entire City, and the nearest Green candidate was about six miles away. I was then instructed I must vote Independent, when I pointed out my Independent candidate stood as UKIP four years ago I was blocked. :/ Well yes of course Tim but that doesn't mean we don't overestimate people's interest compared to our own.
That reminds me for some parallel reason of that sketch on the fast show when the guys are watching the telly in the pub, with the one guy arguing that Bergkamp can't play for Arsenal as he already plays for Holland....
Oh, you and your logical answers Tim. I bet he's crying into his customs union right now.
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Post by rivers10 on Apr 7, 2019 19:14:38 GMT
Ha! Yes.
Hang on... do they mean us? They surely can't.. No, unlike FBPE a significant majority on here actually have a passing grasp of politics and how it operates. I was told by one of them last night I should vote LD or Green in May. I pointed out there isn’t a LD candidate standing in the entire City, and the nearest Green candidate was about six miles away. I was then instructed I must vote Independent, when I pointed out my Independent candidate stood as UKIP four years ago I was blocked. :/ I stumbled upon peak FBPE a while back when one of them told me that they felt so betrayed by Labour over Brexit that they'd never vote for them again even if it meant guaranteeing a hard Brexit.
I pointed out that this was a prime example of cutting your nose off to spite your face
They explained that their fury towards Labour for "helping deliver Brexit" was so great that they were prepared to accept a hard Brexit as the price to pay for voicing that anger...
...righto
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Apr 7, 2019 20:03:23 GMT
No, unlike FBPE a significant majority on here actually have a passing grasp of politics and how it operates. I was told by one of them last night I should vote LD or Green in May. I pointed out there isn’t a LD candidate standing in the entire City, and the nearest Green candidate was about six miles away. I was then instructed I must vote Independent, when I pointed out my Independent candidate stood as UKIP four years ago I was blocked. :/ I stumbled upon peak FBPE a while back when one of them told me that they felt so betrayed by Labour over Brexit that they'd never vote for them again even if it meant guaranteeing a hard Brexit.
I pointed out that this was a prime example of cutting your nose off to spite your face
They explained that their fury towards Labour for "helping deliver Brexit" was so great that they were prepared to accept a hard Brexit as the price to pay for voicing that anger...
...righto
If it's any comfort to you, I once had someone raging at me that the LDs caused Brexit by enabling Cameron to become PM. Maybe he fell asleep asleep the day after the Coalition agreement and woke up the day before the Referendum.
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Post by timrollpickering on Apr 7, 2019 22:20:22 GMT
Just explain that it came more from Clegg simultaneously ramping up the validity of questioning membership by taking part in the #NickVsNigel debates but blocking attempts to hold a referendum back then, when at the time many withdrawalists (had "Brexiteer" been coined by then?) actually worried that a referendum would see the worst elements get control of the campaign and produce the Eurosceptic version of #Yes2AV.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Apr 8, 2019 2:03:06 GMT
I stumbled upon peak FBPE a while back when one of them told me that they felt so betrayed by Labour over Brexit that they'd never vote for them again even if it meant guaranteeing a hard Brexit.
I pointed out that this was a prime example of cutting your nose off to spite your face
They explained that their fury towards Labour for "helping deliver Brexit" was so great that they were prepared to accept a hard Brexit as the price to pay for voicing that anger...
...righto
If it's any comfort to you, I once had someone raging at me that the LDs caused Brexit by enabling Cameron to become PM. Maybe he fell asleep asleep the day after the Coalition agreement and woke up the day before the Referendum. I can actually see some faint logic in that argument in that there was a void on the Remain side amongst people who’d voted LD to keep the Conservatives out (my uncle in Cheadle) who were so disillusioned by the Coalition that they just turned out anything Clegg, Ashdown et al were saying during the referendum campaign and retreated to their predominantly leave backing newspapers. I’ve always felt that particularly Ashdown, who, rightly or wrongly, was perceived pre-Coalition as centre-left anti-Tory, could have spoken to some of Labour’s 97 voters who were still to be convinced by Corbyn.
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Post by Merseymike on Apr 8, 2019 9:32:46 GMT
Its easily forgotten that it was actually the LibDems who initially proposed having a Leave/Remain referendum. Of course, they thought Remain would walk it.
Ed Miliband always opposed having a referendum, and he was right. I shall never believe in them. I will go along with a second one if thats what happens, but I can't pretend I'm enthusiastic.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 8, 2019 9:44:35 GMT
Of course, in the immediate aftermath of the 2015 GE Ed's opposition to a EU referendum was one of the things his internal opponents slagged him off for.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Apr 8, 2019 9:50:38 GMT
If it's any comfort to you, I once had someone raging at me that the LDs caused Brexit by enabling Cameron to become PM. Maybe he fell asleep asleep the day after the Coalition agreement and woke up the day before the Referendum. I can actually see some faint logic in that argument in that there was a void on the Remain side amongst people who’d voted LD to keep the Conservatives out (my uncle in Cheadle) who were so disillusioned by the Coalition that they just turned out anything Clegg, Ashdown et al were saying during the referendum campaign and retreated to their predominantly leave backing newspapers. I’ve always felt that particularly Ashdown, who, rightly or wrongly, was perceived pre-Coalition as centre-left anti-Tory, could have spoken to some of Labour’s 97 voters who were still to be convinced by Corbyn. Firstly a post 2010 Lab/LD Coalition didn't have the numbers to work and any self respecting member of this forum should be able to acknowledge that. Secondly even if it did and the Conservatives remained in opposition between 2010 and 2014/15 for a fourth consecutive term they would have lunged further to the right (regardless of who was leader) and an In/Out referendum on membership would in all likleyhood have been a central plank of the 2014/2015 GE espeaiclly as a Lab/LD Govt wouldn't have halted UKIPs rise. So to say the Lib Dems helped facilitate the 2016 referendum is fanciful at best. Its easily forgotten that it was actually the LibDems who initially proposed having a Leave/Remain referendum. Of course, they thought Remain would walk it. That was as stupid policy originally proposed by Ming Campbell when he was leader and I said so at the time but that's by the by. The policy itself was actually a referendum following a significant treaty change and would essentially given the public the option to endorse the new treaty or leave.
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Apr 8, 2019 9:55:31 GMT
Its easily forgotten that it was actually the LibDems who initially proposed having a Leave/Remain referendum. Of course, they thought Remain would walk it. Of course! That was our cunning plan all along, while we were preventing Cameron having a referendum during the Coalition years. It's obvious now, looking back on it. Isn't it? Well, no, and Mike you are twisting the truth somewhat, and not for the first time.
We *did* suggest a referendum back in 2008, on the Lisbon treaty. But that was passed into law, and became a dead issue. After that, we have only been in favour of a referendum if the relationship between the EU and the UK were to change in a fundamental way. The 2016 referendum was not based on anything like this, and was completely gratuitous. So we were opposed to it, as we had been while in government. That referendum was a Tory enterprise, and they should own it completely.
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Post by Merseymike on Apr 8, 2019 10:06:49 GMT
I think that's called 'wriggling on the hook'
But all three parties went along with having a referendum after the 2015 election. All of them agreed to implement the outcome of the result. None of them recommended any thresholds, whether that be based on vote percentage or all four parts of the UK having to vote to leave.
Its rather pathetic to hear people try and forget that they didn't do these things - from all the parties.
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Apr 8, 2019 10:12:44 GMT
Nope. Our 2015 manifesto was opposed to the 2016 referendum (actually then thought to be more likely in 2017).
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