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Post by Deleted on Apr 5, 2019 13:56:17 GMT
We heard them speaking in English before they were aware of our presence. And ... ? Are people not allowed to use the language of their choice? And could you have experienced the linguistic phenomenon (I cannot recall its name) where you pick up familiar sounds and interpret them as a language you recognise? Mrs TheGriff and I were on a train the other day. A chap was talking on his phone. Mrs TheGriff is convinced he was speaking in Welsh; I thought he was speaking in a Central European language, perhaps German. Who knows? I was simply replying to the suggestion put forward that it was probably an urban myth. They are perfectly within their rights to switch between languages if that is what they do. It’s just that the *impression* may be given of them putting up a barrier. Obviously that might come across to some visitors to the area as a little unfriendly. 🙂
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Post by carlton43 on Apr 5, 2019 14:14:36 GMT
Yes, there was a small pro-Tory swing. But the actual facts (dismissed by the likes of you as "spin") provided by myself, Sibb and others simply show that is not as meaningful as Tory zoomers like yourself are pretending. If you think otherwise, lets bring on that election shall we It is a by-election. It is a low TO. Very little should be read into it or out of it. These are turbulent times and it does not surprise me that the other parties pick up a modest dross protest vote. I really don't think that most of those voters as having even a cursory interest in or knowledge of what the parties are about. They are protesting at incompetence, delay and what must appear from the unknowing 'outside' to be a shiftless bunch who could not run a whelk stall. I think Farage and the Brexit party need to both establish a brand and fight elections and go for UKIP to kill it off, or back into and absorb it. Two Brexit parties will probably reduce the total take in votes and inevitably stall any chance of winning seats and wresting 3rd place from the LDs in regular polling; and that latter aspiration should be upper most in mind as millions like me are at the point of peeling off in their direction. In these times both LDs and PC should be making a much better showing. What on earth do the LDs want? They are the sole Remainer major party and tell us Remain is in the majority? Why are they not seen as such and why do they have no appeal when both the other majors are deeply split and very poorly led? And the SNP in these conditions would be hoovering up all and every seat from Borders to WI. My one area of surprise is that the Conservatives were more robust at holding share despite being in full self-destruct and melt-down! Perhaps whilst that is palpable to insiders it has not affected the electorate quite as much......Yet? That they got any actual swing to them from Labour cannot be talked away by Labour who should at this juncture be making strong inroads to the Conservatives. That they are not ought to be very worrying indeed.
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Post by justin124 on Apr 5, 2019 15:02:05 GMT
I recall the Berwick & East Lothian by election of November 1978 following the untimely death of John Mackintosh. There were high Tory hopes of winning this marginal from Labour yet the by election saw a swing to Labour and an increased majority. It was,of course, no guide at all to what lay ahead at the 1979 GE. It was, though, an accurate reading of what lay ahead in Scotland at the 1979 election. Not too far off it - though Labour did less well in Berwick at the May 1979 GE with the positive by election swing being more than reversed.
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Post by justin124 on Apr 5, 2019 15:05:41 GMT
Yes, there was a small pro-Tory swing. But the actual facts (dismissed by the likes of you as "spin") provided by myself, Sibb and others simply show that is not as meaningful as Tory zoomers like yourself are pretending. If you think otherwise, lets bring on that election shall we It is a by-election. It is a low TO. Very little should be read into it or out of it. These are turbulent times and it does not surprise me that the other parties pick up a modest dross protest vote. I really don't think that most of those voters as having even a cursory interest in or knowledge of what the parties are about. They are protesting at incompetence, delay and what must appear from the unknowing 'outside' to be a shiftless bunch who could not run a whelk stall. I think Farage and the Brexit party need to both establish a brand and fight elections and go for UKIP to kill it off, or back into and absorb it. Two Brexit parties will probably reduce the total take in votes and inevitably stall any chance of winning seats and wresting 3rd place from the LDs in regular polling; and that latter aspiration should be upper most in mind as millions like me are at the point of peeling off in their direction. In these times both LDs and PC should be making a much better showing. What on earth do the LDs want? They are the sole Remainer major party and tell us Remain is in the majority? Why are they not seen as such and why do they have no appeal when both the other majors are deeply split and very poorly led? And the SNP in these conditions would be hoovering up all and every seat from Borders to WI. My one area of surprise is that the Conservatives were more robust at holding share despite being in full self-destruct and melt-down! Perhaps whilst that is palpable to insiders it has not affected the electorate quite as much......Yet? That they got any actual swing to them from Labour cannot be talked away by Labour who should at this juncture be making strong inroads to the Conservatives. That they are not ought to be very worrying indeed. On the other hand, the Lewisham East by election last June saw a 4.5% swing to the Tories - despite the fact that the latter dropped to third place.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 5, 2019 15:07:12 GMT
Scotland - Con in Feb 1974, Lab in 1979
Berwick and East Lothian East Dunbartonshire Glasgow, Cathcart
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Apr 5, 2019 15:09:34 GMT
Non aligned as merely “Conservative”, as in U.K. wide, until Theresa fucks off. I remain a proud member of the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party but “Scottish Conservative” isn’t a forum designation, if it was I’d have asked for that instead. I'm sure the admin could make one It’s alright. I don’t want to bother BossMan given this forum is hard work enough without adding my requests.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 5, 2019 15:10:47 GMT
The 'Unionist' bit has greater purchase in Scotland.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 5, 2019 15:15:50 GMT
The 'Unionist' bit has greater purchase in Scotland. People of Scotland do not accept shoddy goods and promises from dodgy Unionist salesmen. If the Welsh Tories were as dynamic as their Scottish counterparts, Newport West might've been gone blue last night!
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Apr 5, 2019 15:19:22 GMT
People of Scotland do not accept shoddy goods and promises from dodgy Unionist salesmen. If the Welsh Tories were as dynamic as their Scottish counterparts, Newport West might've been gone blue last night! It won’t happen if and until there is a threat to the union in Wales, that’s what invigorated Ruth. We also got lucky with our previous pretty charismatic leaders in McLetchie and Goldie who kept the party alive whilst we were reduced to a third placed irrelevance.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 5, 2019 15:22:28 GMT
Unionism is a stronger card to play in Scotland precisely because independence is a stronger force in Scotland. If Plaid were as much of a threat as the SNP then it would be a different ball game; but then the Tories seem to have a higher natural level of support in Wales anyway.
Edit: Hah. Two other posters have said the same thing at the same time. Still, it emphasises the point.🙂
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Post by gwynthegriff on Apr 5, 2019 16:06:09 GMT
Plaid's result was decent IMO, even if not living up to some of the hype. Ditto ours, though without the hype element. Vote share up despite almost zero publicity, and I'm not conscious that we really put much effort in - there was nothing on LD Voice about it, and I can't remember anything on the main party website. Perhaps the Welsh party gave it a mention. In Wales, I think our eyes are on a prize in a seat somewhere to the north. I too was struck by how little hectoring I've had from the party re Newport West.
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Apr 5, 2019 16:09:03 GMT
If the Welsh Tories were as dynamic as their Scottish counterparts, Newport West might've been gone blue last night! But it didn't and it won't, because at the end of the day Jeremy Corbyn is a far better strategist than May.. Ye gods, how low are you setting the bar there?
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Post by Andrew_S on Apr 5, 2019 18:23:30 GMT
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Apr 5, 2019 18:56:43 GMT
It does not resonate in Wales because there is no threat. When PC become the biggest party in Wales, the Conservatives will be the second biggest. No such danger. Plaid show yet again that they have managed to be outflanked by just about everyone, and particularly by Labour.
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jimboo2017
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Post by jimboo2017 on Apr 5, 2019 19:54:25 GMT
Not so. Very low turnout and pishing rain, If Labour was on its way to government, and my god given the chaos why wouldn’t they, surely they'd do better than that? It’s not good for us, but it’s worse for Labour imo You are under the impression people give a damn
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jimboo2017
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Post by jimboo2017 on Apr 5, 2019 21:20:31 GMT
A net swing from Lab to Con! Yippee! Let's hope that our triumphantly brilliant leader Mrs May will use this spectacular triumph as a springboard and a bandwagon, and call a snap general election. We will crush Corbyn's chaotic communist clique and get a massive landslide for an immediate hard No-Deal Brexit! I will support the workers, throw my zimmer on the barricade
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Post by jimboo2017 on Apr 5, 2019 21:21:26 GMT
It does not resonate in Wales because there is no threat. When PC become the biggest party in Wales, the Conservatives will be the second biggest. No they won't most Labour party supporters would rather vote PC than vote for the Tories. Notice the lack of Tory representation in the South Wales valley's there a reason for that you know.. They wouldn't be seen dead there!!!
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Post by syorkssocialist on Apr 5, 2019 21:37:30 GMT
It does not resonate in Wales because there is no threat. When PC become the biggest party in Wales, the Conservatives will be the second biggest. The Conservatives already are the second biggest party in Wales, both at Westminster and Cardiff Bay.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 5, 2019 21:46:16 GMT
No they won't most Labour party supporters would rather vote PC than vote for the Tories. Notice the lack of Tory representation in the South Wales valley's there a reason for that you know.. They wouldn't be seen dead there!!! Tories won Gower in 2015 - Lab held for 116 years. Blaenau Gwent (safest Lab seat in the country in ‘83 and ‘92) was lost in 2005.
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European Lefty
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Post by European Lefty on Apr 5, 2019 22:02:06 GMT
They wouldn't be seen dead there!!! Tories won Gower in 2015 - Lab held for 116 years. Blaenau Gwent (safest Lab seat in the country in ‘83 and ‘92) was lost in 2005. Every election throws up results like that, without it actually meaning anything. Blaenau Gwent is now back being safe Labour, and we retook Gower fairly comfortably last year.
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