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Post by finsobruce on Apr 5, 2019 12:01:03 GMT
Twitter says they threw the kitchen sink at this and even had a plane fly over with a Renew banner. I'd love to see that on the expenses declaration! But it seems like an extravagance that they won't be able to afford every time. What's the betting they don't think the plane counts towards expenses?  |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Apr 5, 2019 12:03:55 GMT
Full ResultLab - 9,308 - 39.58% (-12.73%) Con - 7,357 - 31.29% (-8.00%) UKIP - 2,023 - 8.60% (+6.07%) Plaid - 1,185 - 5.04% (+2.56%) Lib - 1,088 - 4.63% (+2.38%) Renew - 879 - 3.74% (new) AWA - 205 - 0.87% (new) SDP - 202 - 0.86% (new) D&V - 185 - 0.79% (new) 4Brit - 159 - 0.68% (new) Grn - 924 - 3.93% (+2.79%) Swing - 2.36% from Lab to Con; 9.40% from Lab to UKIP. Well. There it is. More interesting than I expected. Some observations. Labour did win and Conservatives were second. UKIP did well to come third and must benefit from Conservative Leaver dismays. Hamilton probably neutral being well recognized and gradually less toxic. A PC with real ambitions should be doing lot better in any seat in Wales. The LDs as the Remainer alternative with Conservatives in car crash mode should be much better. Labour as nearly a decade on from office against dire government should be doing much better. TO in a febrile political atmosphere with much at stake is dreadfully low. The others really are of no consequence at all. For me that is a poor to bad Labour result and a surprising better than deserved result for Conservatives. I'd pretty well agree with that round-up. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,038
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Post by Sibboleth on Apr 5, 2019 12:18:44 GMT
See above. Please no spinning. You have already tried to spin the result away yourself. No, I have simply described the facts as they are. It helps that, unlike most people generating Takes about this here and elsewhere, I do actually know something of the constituency. Besides, anyone who thinks I have any interest in placing positive spin on anything for Labour at present has either not read my posts at all or is borderline illiterate. This was a pretty poor result for Labour, but that was to be expected (Labour nationally is not popular, the deceased incumbent appealed beyond party lines, particularly in the large commuter villages around Newport proper) and tells us little we did not already know. No one else performed well either. This also tells us very little: no one else is popular either. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Apr 5, 2019 12:24:00 GMT
You have already tried to spin the result away yourself. No, I have simply described the facts as they are. It helps that, unlike most people generating Takes about this here and elsewhere, I do actually know something of the constituency. Besides, anyone who thinks I have any interest in placing positive spin on anything for Labour at present has either not read my posts at all or is borderline illiterate. This was a pretty poor result for Labour, but that was to be expected (Labour nationally is not popular, the deceased incumbent appealed beyond party lines, particularly in the large commuter villages around Newport proper) and tells us little we did not already know. No one else performed well either. This also tells us very little: no one else is popular either. I don’t make a habit of reading your posts. Today was a rare exception I refer you to Forfarshire Conservative’s post above. You can’t spin the fact that there was a swing to the Conservatives, how often does that happen in a by election, especially with the government in such dire straits? |
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Post by justin124 on Apr 5, 2019 12:27:23 GMT
No, I have simply described the facts as they are. It helps that, unlike most people generating Takes about this here and elsewhere, I do actually know something of the constituency. Besides, anyone who thinks I have any interest in placing positive spin on anything for Labour at present has either not read my posts at all or is borderline illiterate. This was a pretty poor result for Labour, but that was to be expected (Labour nationally is not popular, the deceased incumbent appealed beyond party lines, particularly in the large commuter villages around Newport proper) and tells us little we did not already know. No one else performed well either. This also tells us very little: no one else is popular either. I don’t make a habit of reading your posts. Today was a rare exception I refer you to Forfarshire Conservative’s post above. You can’t spin the fact that there was a swing to the Conservatives, how often does that happen in a by election, especially with the government in such dire straits? I recall the Berwick & East Lothian by election of November 1978 following the untimely death of John Mackintosh. There were high Tory hopes of winning this marginal from Labour yet the by election saw a swing to Labour and an increased majority. It was,of course, no guide at all to what lay ahead at the 1979 GE. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,967
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 5, 2019 12:27:31 GMT
Yes, there was a small pro-Tory swing. But the actual facts (dismissed by the likes of you as "spin") provided by myself, Sibb and others simply show that is not as meaningful as Tory zoomers like yourself are pretending. If you think otherwise, lets bring on that election shall we  |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Apr 5, 2019 12:28:51 GMT
I'd love to see that on the expenses declaration! But it seems like an extravagance that they won't be able to afford every time. What's the betting they don't think the plane counts towards expenses? What, like Corbyn? |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Apr 5, 2019 12:29:31 GMT
I take back part of what I said earlier. I said that I thought we’d done badly too, I hadn’t realised there was a swing TO US! at that time so I now consider us to have done rather well given the circumstances of Westminster and being the incumbent government for nine years. Furthermore, to the poster, and those who the liked the post, that accused me of spinning, you are bloody hypocrites. Several of you are spinning this result and Labour people are spinning it so much that it’s bordering on the ludicrous yet there’s not a peep about “spinning”.🙄 Typical partisan holier than thou hypocrisy from two usual suspects.😠 ‘To us.’ I thought you’d gone non-aligned? |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,967
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 5, 2019 12:29:34 GMT
What's the betting they don't think the plane counts towards expenses? What, like Corbyn? Sorry, explain? |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Apr 5, 2019 12:31:04 GMT
No, I have simply described the facts as they are. It helps that, unlike most people generating Takes about this here and elsewhere, I do actually know something of the constituency. Besides, anyone who thinks I have any interest in placing positive spin on anything for Labour at present has either not read my posts at all or is borderline illiterate. This was a pretty poor result for Labour, but that was to be expected (Labour nationally is not popular, the deceased incumbent appealed beyond party lines, particularly in the large commuter villages around Newport proper) and tells us little we did not already know. No one else performed well either. This also tells us very little: no one else is popular either. I don’t make a habit of reading your posts. Today was a rare exception I refer you to Forfarshire Conservative ’s post above. You can’t spin the fact that there was a swing to the Conservatives, how often does that happen in a by election, especially with the government in such dire straits? I really can’t see Sibboleth ‘spinning’ anything for the current Labour Party, in fairness. |
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WJ
Non-Aligned
Posts: 3,277
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Post by WJ on Apr 5, 2019 12:34:23 GMT
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Apr 5, 2019 12:35:08 GMT
Anyway, I don’t think this was a good result for anyone really but better for the more Brexity parties than the soft Brexit/Remain parties.
Good - None
Okay - Conservatives, UKIP, Greens
Bad - Labour, Plaid Cymru, Liberal Democrats
It probably offers very little in terms of what could happen in a Peterborough by election, apart from the fact UKIP are, relatively speaking, back in the game.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,967
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 5, 2019 12:37:16 GMT
Plaid's result was decent IMO, even if not living up to some of the hype.
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Apr 5, 2019 12:37:29 GMT
I take back part of what I said earlier. I said that I thought we’d done badly too, I hadn’t realised there was a swing TO US! at that time so I now consider us to have done rather well given the circumstances of Westminster and being the incumbent government for nine years. Furthermore, to the poster, and those who the liked the post, that accused me of spinning, you are bloody hypocrites. Several of you are spinning this result and Labour people are spinning it so much that it’s bordering on the ludicrous yet there’s not a peep about “spinning”.🙄 Typical partisan holier than thou hypocrisy from two usual suspects.😠 ‘To us.’ I thought you’d gone non-aligned? Non aligned as merely “Conservative”, as in U.K. wide, until Theresa fucks off. I remain a proud member of the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party but “Scottish Conservative” isn’t a forum designation, if it was I’d have asked for that instead. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Apr 5, 2019 12:41:59 GMT
Plaid's result was decent IMO, even if not living up to some of the hype. Maybe. 5% would have been a good result in a general election here but I thought they’d be better at mobilising an anti Welsh Labour government vote in a by-election, even if that’s probably minimal in Newport. Comfortably been behind UKIP makes the result not look too good for them IMO, although the Greens standing and actually managing a decent vote share by Green standards probably didn’t help. |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,748
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Post by Chris from Brum on Apr 5, 2019 12:51:54 GMT
Plaid's result was decent IMO, even if not living up to some of the hype. Ditto ours, though without the hype element. Vote share up despite almost zero publicity, and I'm not conscious that we really put much effort in - there was nothing on LD Voice about it, and I can't remember anything on the main party website. Perhaps the Welsh party gave it a mention. In Wales, I think our eyes are on a prize in a seat somewhere to the north. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Apr 5, 2019 13:29:50 GMT
I think Renew's share is what Change UK would get in a General Election.
This voted Leave. In a seat like Streatham, that share would be much more.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Apr 5, 2019 13:36:56 GMT
Combined Labour-Conservative vote here.
2019 b-e: 70.9%
2017 GE: 91.6%
2015 GE: 73.7%
2010 GE: 73.6%
2005 GE: 74.4%
2001 GE: 78.9%
1997 GE: 84.9%
1992 GE: 89.1%
1987 GE: 86.2%
1983 GE: 74.6%
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Apr 5, 2019 13:38:53 GMT
I don’t make a habit of reading your posts. Today was a rare exception I refer you to Forfarshire Conservative’s post above. You can’t spin the fact that there was a swing to the Conservatives, how often does that happen in a by election, especially with the government in such dire straits? I recall the Berwick & East Lothian by election of November 1978 following the untimely death of John Mackintosh. There were high Tory hopes of winning this marginal from Labour yet the by election saw a swing to Labour and an increased majority. It was,of course, no guide at all to what lay ahead at the 1979 GE. It was, though, an accurate reading of what lay ahead in Scotland at the 1979 election. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Apr 5, 2019 13:40:56 GMT
‘To us.’ I thought you’d gone non-aligned? Non aligned as merely “Conservative”, as in U.K. wide, until Theresa fucks off. I remain a proud member of the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party but “Scottish Conservative” isn’t a forum designation, if it was I’d have asked for that instead. I'm sure the admin could make one |
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