The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,967
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 5, 2019 10:28:25 GMT
This and Lewisham East were bad for Lab. At this rate, Peterborough will fall. That is a genuine Labour-Tory marginal and the dynamics will be completely different from the other two. (though of course the circumstances of any byelection will not help us) |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 5, 2019 10:30:10 GMT
This and Lewisham East were bad for Lab. At this rate, Peterborough will fall. That is a genuine Labour-Tory marginal and the dynamics will be completely different from the other two. (though of course the circumstances of any byelection will not help us) Peterborough is far more marginal and the circumstances far worse for Lab. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,967
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 5, 2019 10:33:59 GMT
I don't think this is confirmed yet - that is to say, the by-election does not provide quite enough evidence alone, considering protest votes and such - but I do think the 2017 GE was the high water mark for two-party politics, to which we will not return anytime soon. Considering the state of the main parties, that would be excellent if true, and we'll know soon enough after the locals (and possibly the euros). Exactly the sort of sweeping conclusion that some pundits have drawn from this result, and equally dubiously. To me, its very simple - most of the "minor" parties put a great deal of effort into this byelection. Will that be the case at a GE? (the same was true at Lewisham, the LibDems will do well to have a tenth as many people there next time as they did last year) |
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Post by justin124 on Apr 5, 2019 10:34:34 GMT
That is a genuine Labour-Tory marginal and the dynamics will be completely different from the other two. (though of course the circumstances of any byelection will not help us) Peterborough is far more marginal and the circumstances far worse for Lab. Given that Onasanya has been expelled from the Labour Party, I am not sure that her conduct will damage her former party much at all - Chris Huhne's conviction did not prevent the LDs hanging on to Eastleigh at the 2013 by election despite their participation in the Coalition being highly unpopular by that time. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 5, 2019 10:40:30 GMT
But UKIP’s unwind seemed to benefit Labour in that seat in 2017.
If they’re on the up, it may be at Lab’s expense.
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Post by No Offence Alan on Apr 5, 2019 10:52:51 GMT
Peterborough is far more marginal and the circumstances far worse for Lab. Given that Onasanya has been expelled from the Labour Party, I am not sure that her conduct will damage her former party much at all - Chris Huhne's conviction did not prevent the LDs hanging on to Eastleigh at the 2013 by election despite their participation in the Coalition being highly unpopular by that time. I would say that MPs who voluntarily resign their seats (usually for a "better" job) cause their parties most problems in the subsequent by-election. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 5, 2019 11:10:21 GMT
I don't think this is confirmed yet - that is to say, the by-election does not provide quite enough evidence alone, considering protest votes and such - but I do think the 2017 GE was the high water mark for two-party politics, to which we will not return anytime soon. Considering the state of the main parties, that would be excellent if true, and we'll know soon enough after the locals (and possibly the euros). Exactly the sort of sweeping conclusion that some pundits have drawn from this result, and equally dubiously. To me, its very simple - most of the "minor" parties put a great deal of effort into this byelection. Will that be the case at a GE? (the same was true at Lewisham, the LibDems will do well to have a tenth as many people there next time as they did last year) There is some prospect of both Labour and the Conservatives being damaged by schisms within their respective parties/electorates. Indeed, I have no doubt that will happen if the European elections are held, as this would give a golden opportunity for Change and the Brexit Party to garner publicity and momentum in a contest which "doesn't matter" as far as most voters are concerned, as well as having a low turnout and being held under PR. I don't see any prospect of significant advances for any of the established minor parties - Lib Dems, Greens etc. In fact, rather the contrary, as the spotlight will not be on them. It's conceivable that they might pick up some crumbs if the vote shares of the majors are still depressed by breakaways by the time of the next general election, but that's about it. A major imponderable is that changes in the leadership of both the Labour and Conservative parties are highly likely over the next couple of years. That might benefit other new or existing parties - but then, it might not. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Apr 5, 2019 11:32:51 GMT
We heard them speaking in English before they were aware of our presence. And ... ? Are people not allowed to use the language of their choice? And could you have experienced the linguistic phenomenon (I cannot recall its name) where you pick up familiar sounds and interpret them as a language you recognise? Mrs TheGriff and I were on a train the other day. A chap was talking on his phone. Mrs TheGriff is convinced he was speaking in Welsh; I thought he was speaking in a Central European language, perhaps German. Who knows? |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Apr 5, 2019 11:35:21 GMT
The terms "UKIP" and "Nigel Farage" have widespread brand recognition but are now technically competing brands. Where only one is in play, I expect it to do reasonably well (as here) but if they find themselves in competition, I believe the Farage brand to be stronger and take 80% of their combined share of the vote against 10% for UKIP and 10% drop off for being in conflict with each other. In other words oblivion for Continuity UKIP over Brand Farage I think the brand recognition of UKIP may be more significant than you think. Many people may still assume it's Farage's party. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,967
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 5, 2019 11:36:54 GMT
Now that I am firmly Unaligned, to the extent that I would probably not vote in a GE at all, do I get to express an opinion, or is it still spin? OK, Labour. Not good. Less than Conservative and UKIP combined when facing the worst Conservative government in my lifetime. Perhaps Paul Flynn had more personal vote than we thought, perhaps the demographics of the seat are changing over time, perhaps the low turnout favoured Leave identified candidates or even strong-opinion-on-the-EU candidates. This seat no longer looks safe, but let's see what a GE turnout does. Conservative. Not bad. How on earth does a candidate campaign when he is the candidate of Theresa May? Local party will be happy. If the weather had been like it was a week ago, both turnout and the Labour share would have been above 40% and I would have been quite happy with that. Tories quite possibly "won" the postal vote here, or at any rate came close. And of course much of that will have been cast before the present bout of "chaos". (and Flynn was quite popular personally, this has been widely accepted in the byelection reporting) |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Apr 5, 2019 11:39:31 GMT
I take back part of what I said earlier. I said that I thought we’d done badly too, I hadn’t realised there was a swing TO US! at that time so I now consider us to have done rather well given the circumstances of Westminster and being the incumbent government for nine years. Furthermore, to the poster, and those who the liked the post, that accused me of spinning, you are bloody hypocrites. Several of you are spinning this result and Labour people are spinning it so much that it’s bordering on the ludicrous yet there’s not a peep about “spinning”.🙄 Typical partisan holier than thou hypocrisy from two usual suspects.😠
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Post by finsobruce on Apr 5, 2019 11:41:28 GMT
The terms "UKIP" and "Nigel Farage" have widespread brand recognition but are now technically competing brands. Where only one is in play, I expect it to do reasonably well (as here) but if they find themselves in competition, I believe the Farage brand to be stronger and take 80% of their combined share of the vote against 10% for UKIP and 10% drop off for being in conflict with each other. In other words oblivion for Continuity UKIP over Brand Farage I think the brand recognition of UKIP may be more significant than you think. Many people may still assume it's Farage's party. Farage is going to have to get a shift on. He would quite possibly have come third here had he stood, but the longer he leaves it, his brand recognition will diminsh while - rightly or wrongly - UKIP's is maintained. |
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Izzyeviel
Lib Dem
I stayed up for Hartlepools
Posts: 3,279 
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Post by Izzyeviel on Apr 5, 2019 11:41:29 GMT
A really good result for Renew, did they heavily target this seat?
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,967
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 5, 2019 11:43:44 GMT
A really good result for Renew, did they heavily target this seat? They did, and had an absolutely gushing write up in the Graun - and still got less than 4%. Some perspective needed here, maybe? |
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Apr 5, 2019 11:48:46 GMT
This could be a sneak preview of hundreds of results at the next general election. Both major parties sharply declining but being saved by the 'neither of the above' vote being completely fragmented.
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Post by finsobruce on Apr 5, 2019 11:52:58 GMT
A really good result for Renew, did they heavily target this seat? They did, and had an absolutely gushing write up in the Graun - and still got less than 4%. Some perspective needed here, maybe? What they would want is another by-election and asap..... |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,967
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 5, 2019 11:54:19 GMT
This could be a sneak preview of hundreds of results at the next general election. Both major parties sharply declining but being saved by the 'neither of the above' vote being completely fragmented. Again, I think this is reading a bit too much into a byelection with its own peculiar characteristics. (another point here is that the relatively low turnout means that committed single issue - at the moment, that means Brexit - voters were over-represented) It wouldn't be a surprise to see the share for the "big two" decline a bit next time - after all in 2017 it was historically high. But we shouldn't overdo it. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Apr 5, 2019 11:55:36 GMT
Honestly, if we can all stay up for it, surely a candidate can. It depends what the other commitment was. It might be something a long distance away. It might be a private reason which the interviewee was not willing to specify. Our constituency Chairman once stood in a deeply rural, very Conservative ward. He wasn't at the count. The local paper reported it as "the Liberal Democrat Leader lost his seat and wasn't even at the count". He was a medic. He was at an international conference. (I think it was linked to AIDS treatment.) It was in Australia. Bloody dilettante! |
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Post by carlton43 on Apr 5, 2019 11:58:51 GMT
A really good result for Renew, did they heavily target this seat? LOL |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Apr 5, 2019 11:59:21 GMT
Correct me if I’m wrong but wouldn’t something similar see the Tories pick up a marginal seat like, oh I don’t know, Peterborough? That would depend on what kind of similarity we're talking about. What basically happened was that a load of both Labour and Conservative votes went to smaller parties (most likely the Tory vote went mostly to UKIP, with the Labour vote going four ways to Plaid, the Lib Dems, the Greens, and Renew). It would have to be both a similar trend and in similar proportions between the two parties to throw the seat. Also, nobody genuinely thought this seat could change hands. So we're talking about a very different kind of election campaign. And in by-elections that can make all the difference. Given the reduced turnout is it not likely that very few votes actually moved between parties? |
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