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Post by curiousliberal on Apr 5, 2019 7:37:09 GMT
I don't think this is confirmed yet - that is to say, the by-election does not provide quite enough evidence alone, considering protest votes and such - but I do think the 2017 GE was the high water mark for two-party politics, to which we will not return anytime soon. Considering the state of the main parties, that would be excellent if true, and we'll know soon enough after the locals (and possibly the euros).
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Apr 5, 2019 8:03:50 GMT
See above. Please no spinning. You have already tried to spin the result away yourself. |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,748
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Post by Chris from Brum on Apr 5, 2019 8:10:38 GMT
Surely UKIP threw the kitchen sink at this one? And they won't have a candidate with the recognition factor of Neil Hamilton available every time, will they? File under one-off, at least until something similar happens.
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Post by No Offence Alan on Apr 5, 2019 8:11:56 GMT
I think people are being a bit over generous to Labour with comments on here. Yes, we must apply the usual caveats about turnout, and the election being caused by the death of a popular incumbent, it was raining etc. The best thing you can say for them is its a hold. After being in opposition for 9 years and with a rubbish government, to only hold on by 2000 is poor. Not the sort of result that leads to a likely conclusion of a Labour government. But in Wales, Labour have been in government for 20 years. |
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Post by curiousliberal on Apr 5, 2019 8:12:04 GMT
Surely UKIP threw the kitchen sink at this one? And they won't have a candidate with the recognition factor of Neil Hamilton available every time, will they? File under one-off, at least until something similar happens. This is a good thing. |
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Post by Penddu on Apr 5, 2019 8:25:33 GMT
Labour did slightly better than I thought (I predicted 35%) and Plaid not as well (I predicted 11%) - I expected some more Labour to Plaid movement.
But otherwise I am satisfied with my prediction. The one that surprised me was Renew - I didnt expect them to do anything.
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Post by Penddu on Apr 5, 2019 8:28:30 GMT
Surely UKIP threw the kitchen sink at this one? And they won't have a candidate with the recognition factor of Neil Hamilton available every time, will they? File under one-off, at least until something similar happens. Recognition of Neil Hamilton will have reduced UKIP vote not increased it..... |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Apr 5, 2019 8:32:01 GMT
Labour did slightly better than I thought (I predicted 35%) and Plaid not as well (I predicted 11%) - I expected some more Labour to Plaid movement. But otherwise I am satisfied with my prediction. The one that surprised me was Renew - I didnt expect them to do anything. Perhaps they were a proxy for the TIG vote? |
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Post by curiousliberal on Apr 5, 2019 8:35:21 GMT
Labour did slightly better than I thought (I predicted 35%) and Plaid not as well (I predicted 11%) - I expected some more Labour to Plaid movement. But otherwise I am satisfied with my prediction. The one that surprised me was Renew - I didnt expect them to do anything. Twitter says they threw the kitchen sink at this and even had a plane fly over with a Renew banner. |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,748
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Post by Chris from Brum on Apr 5, 2019 8:36:43 GMT
Surely UKIP threw the kitchen sink at this one? And they won't have a candidate with the recognition factor of Neil Hamilton available every time, will they? File under one-off, at least until something similar happens. Recognition of Neil Hamilton will have reduced UKIP vote not increased it..... Don't you believe it ... notoriety can be as attractive as virtue to some people. |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,748
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Post by Chris from Brum on Apr 5, 2019 8:40:06 GMT
Labour did slightly better than I thought (I predicted 35%) and Plaid not as well (I predicted 11%) - I expected some more Labour to Plaid movement. But otherwise I am satisfied with my prediction. The one that surprised me was Renew - I didnt expect them to do anything. Plaid will, I think, be disappointed not to have taken third, what with their shiny new leader and all that. Granted that Newport isn't prime territory for them, but they had been trying to be as attractive to the Anglophone community as the Welsh-speakers. Clearly that's not as easy as it might seem. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Apr 5, 2019 8:40:50 GMT
Recognition of Neil Hamilton will have reduced UKIP vote not increased it..... Don't you believe it ... notoriety can be as attractive as virtue to some people. Name recognition is a net plus. Also, how many people remember what Hamilton was alleged to have done? Not to mention that people have since been somewhat desensitised by the expenses saga. |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,748
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Post by Chris from Brum on Apr 5, 2019 8:41:26 GMT
Labour did slightly better than I thought (I predicted 35%) and Plaid not as well (I predicted 11%) - I expected some more Labour to Plaid movement. But otherwise I am satisfied with my prediction. The one that surprised me was Renew - I didnt expect them to do anything. Twitter says they threw the kitchen sink at this and even had a plane fly over with a Renew banner. I'd love to see that on the expenses declaration! But it seems like an extravagance that they won't be able to afford every time. |
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Post by carlton43 on Apr 5, 2019 9:48:55 GMT
Full ResultLab - 9,308 - 39.58% (-12.73%) Con - 7,357 - 31.29% (-8.00%) UKIP - 2,023 - 8.60% (+6.07%) Plaid - 1,185 - 5.04% (+2.56%) Lib - 1,088 - 4.63% (+2.38%) Renew - 879 - 3.74% (new) AWA - 205 - 0.87% (new) SDP - 202 - 0.86% (new) D&V - 185 - 0.79% (new) 4Brit - 159 - 0.68% (new) Grn - 924 - 3.93% (+2.79%) Swing - 2.36% from Lab to Con; 9.40% from Lab to UKIP. Well. There it is. More interesting than I expected. Some observations. Labour did win and Conservatives were second. UKIP did well to come third and must benefit from Conservative Leaver dismays. Hamilton probably neutral being well recognized and gradually less toxic. A PC with real ambitions should be doing lot better in any seat in Wales. The LDs as the Remainer alternative with Conservatives in car crash mode should be much better. Labour as nearly a decade on from office against dire government should be doing much better. TO in a febrile political atmosphere with much at stake is dreadfully low. The others really are of no consequence at all. For me that is a poor to bad Labour result and a surprising better than deserved result for Conservatives. |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,908
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Post by Tony Otim on Apr 5, 2019 9:51:24 GMT
Full ResultLab - 9,308 - 39.58% (-12.73%) Con - 7,357 - 31.29% (-8.00%) UKIP - 2,023 - 8.60% (+6.07%) Plaid - 1,185 - 5.04% (+2.56%) Lib - 1,088 - 4.63% (+2.38%) Renew - 879 - 3.74% (new) AWA - 205 - 0.87% (new) SDP - 202 - 0.86% (new) D&V - 185 - 0.79% (new) 4Brit - 159 - 0.68% (new) Grn - 924 - 3.93% (+2.79%) Swing - 2.36% from Lab to Con; 9.40% from Lab to UKIP. Well. There it is. More interesting than I expected. Some observations. Labour did win and Conservatives were second. UKIP did well to come third and must benefit from Conservative Leaver dismays. Hamilton probably neutral being well recognized and gradually less toxic. A PC with real ambitions should be doing lot better in any seat in Wales. The LDs as the Remainer alternative with Conservatives in car crash mode should be much better. Labour as nearly 2-decades on from office against dire government should be doing much better. TO in a febrile political atmosphere with much at stake is dreadfully low. The others really are of no consequence at all. For me that is a poor to bad Labour result and a surprising better than deserved result for Conservatives. Labour nearly 2 decades on from office- it's not even a whole 1 yet... |
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Post by carlton43 on Apr 5, 2019 10:00:55 GMT
Well. There it is. More interesting than I expected. Some observations. Labour did win and Conservatives were second. UKIP did well to come third and must benefit from Conservative Leaver dismays. Hamilton probably neutral being well recognized and gradually less toxic. A PC with real ambitions should be doing lot better in any seat in Wales. The LDs as the Remainer alternative with Conservatives in car crash mode should be much better. Labour as nearly 2-decades on from office against dire government should be doing much better. TO in a febrile political atmosphere with much at stake is dreadfully low. The others really are of no consequence at all. For me that is a poor to bad Labour result and a surprising better than deserved result for Conservatives. Labour nearly 2 decades on from office- it's not even a whole 1 yet... Corrected. It just seems so long under this complete shower of incompetents that for a moment I convinced my self! Liquid ennui! The point made is still the same. A reasonable even if dull and plodding opposition ought to miles ahead in the polls and racking up a major gain in a by-election like this. Instead it see an actual swing to the government. I mean to say! The shame of losing on a swing away to this government! If Labour can't advance against May and the worst administration of my life, what is the point of them? |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,967
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 5, 2019 10:02:42 GMT
My god, is nine thousand really a winning Parliamentary vote!? A reminder that Labour won Stoke Central two years ago with less than 8k. And that was a hard fought high profile campaign with a bigger electorate. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 5, 2019 10:15:04 GMT
This and Lewisham East were bad for Lab.
At this rate, Peterborough will fall.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,967
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 5, 2019 10:19:05 GMT
I think people are being a bit over generous to Labour with comments on here. Yes, we must apply the usual caveats about turnout, and the election being caused by the death of a popular incumbent, it was raining etc. The best thing you can say for them is its a hold. After being in opposition for 9 years and with a rubbish government, to only hold on by 2000 is poor. Not the sort of result that leads to a likely conclusion of a Labour government. Labour are actually in power in Wales, I think people outside the principality underestimate the significance of this. |
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Post by justin124 on Apr 5, 2019 10:26:43 GMT
This is far from being a brilliant result for Labour - though far from the disaster of the Copeland by election of February 2017. I am not sure that 'swing' calculations reveal much in the current febrile atmosphere - and I strongly suspect that having been the ruling party at the Welsh Assembly for so long will have done Labour no favours. In a GE , the latter factor would probably be much less relevant.
The new MP comes across as a nice person!
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