timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823 
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Post by timmullen1 on Apr 1, 2019 13:38:28 GMT
There seems some certainty that they’ll contest a number of Council seats (largely with incumbents who’ve defected with them) and, by their own admission, they’re calculating the UK will participate in the Euro elections where they hope to run sizeable slates in most areas. They're not yet actually fully registered as a party - will everything be sorted in time for them to have their name on ballot papers for May? Especially if Change.org.uk's objections to the name are registered and taken seriously. I assume as there’s next to no chance of getting an agreement to an extension that requires participation in the European elections the usual timetables for nominations etc with the Electoral Commission will be amended by legislation should the need arise giving them slightly more time. As for Change.org.uk’s objections I defer to somebody ( Davıd Boothroyd ?) more conversant in electoral law. |
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Post by timrollpickering on Apr 1, 2019 13:46:19 GMT
I was thinking more of the local elections but I suspect this means that anyone hoping to stand for them will appear as Independent or No Description.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Apr 1, 2019 13:49:24 GMT
Yes that would be a very respectable vote for a fringe London based party but I don't understand why you think their lack of infrastructure and experience should lead to them getting such a respectable vote Sorry inspite of their lack of resources/experience not due to. |
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Post by Merseymike on Apr 1, 2019 14:08:56 GMT
TIG was formed the day Paul Flynn died, tough ask to find and vet candidate and also remember they've only just registered as a party (too late for this election). But yes, at some point (soon) they need to start contesting seats, otherwise we'll have the bizarre situation of a political party which doesn't contest elections. FWIW I think Renew will poll respectfully well on Thursday given they're a new start up party with little infrastructure, experience and knowledge etc. The nutters of the hard/far left have traditionally been far keener on waving placards than actually standing for election, haven't they? Well, if they are dedicated revolutionaries, they wouldn't wish to stand in bourgeois elections anyway! |
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
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Post by timmullen1 on Apr 1, 2019 14:13:17 GMT
I was thinking more of the local elections but I suspect this means that anyone hoping to stand for them will appear as Independent or No Description. I see what you mean; yes, probably stand as Indie or ND and then if elected Group as ChangeUK pending the EC ruling on Change.org.uk’s objection. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Apr 1, 2019 14:26:59 GMT
Would be funny if the Tories win, call an election, and fail to win a majority.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Apr 1, 2019 14:30:15 GMT
Would be funny if the Tories win, call an election, and fail to win a majority. They did that in 2017 after Copeland. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Apr 1, 2019 16:44:34 GMT
Yes that would be a very respectable vote for a fringe London based party but I don't understand why you think their lack of infrastructure and experience should lead to them getting such a respectable vote This sums it all up. I'm not sure why anyone thinks that a party with zero profile, that has been overtaken by a shinier new version of the same thing and showed minimal appeal to voters even in areas tailor-made for their rather shrill message. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Apr 1, 2019 16:56:23 GMT
The SDP could break the mould here!
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Post by greenchristian on Apr 1, 2019 20:52:02 GMT
The SDP could break the mould here! And get more votes than nomination signatures? |
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Post by Penddu on Apr 2, 2019 6:06:43 GMT
They're not yet actually fully registered as a party - will everything be sorted in time for them to have their name on ballot papers for May? Especially if Change.org.uk's objections to the name are registered and taken seriously. I assume as there’s next to no chance of getting an agreement to an extension that requires participation in the European elections the usual timetables for nominations etc with the Electoral Commission will be amended by legislation should the need arise giving them slightly more time. As for Change.org.uk’s objections I defer to somebody ( Davıd Boothroyd ?) more conversant in electoral law. From recent experience of Electoral Commission, they are extremely pedantic and could very well reject name. The procedure involves publishing party name, logo, etc for public viewing for 30 days. If everything goes well it takes 6 weeks from application to acceptance. But if any objection it can double that. I have just checked EC site and their notice was published on 29/03 (with a neat and effective logo). So they could recieve news around 1st week April. When is deadline for EU candidature? 6th April?? Cutting it fine!!! |
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Post by Penddu on Apr 2, 2019 14:14:34 GMT
My final predictions..
Lab 35%
Con 30%
Plaid 11%
Ukip 7%
LibDem 5%
Green 4%
ATWA 2%
Brexit 2%
Renew 1%
SDP 1%
D&V 1%
FB 1%
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Post by carlton43 on Apr 2, 2019 14:19:54 GMT
My final predictions.. Lab 35% Con 30% Plaid 11% Ukip 7% LibDem 5% Green 4% ATWA 2% Brexit 2% Renew 1% SDP 1% D&V 1% FB 1% You posit a close call then in a two-horse race? Is this armchair or with on the street knowledge? And which of those many lower in the list is your own outfit as I am a bit out of touch with Welsh politics? |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Apr 2, 2019 15:43:52 GMT
Go on then, I’ll play this game....
Labour - 55%
Conservative - 22%
Lib Dem - 6%
UKIP - 6%
Plaid Cymru - 5%
Greens - 2%
Abolish the Welsh Assembly - 2%
For Britain - 1%
Renew - 1%
SDP - 0%
Democrats & Veterans - 0%
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Post by rivers10 on Apr 2, 2019 16:12:28 GMT
My final predictions.. Lab 35% Con 30% Plaid 11% Ukip 7% LibDem 5% Green 4% ATWA 2% Brexit 2% Renew 1% SDP 1% D&V 1% FB 1% Absolutely no local knowledge but I think your off on the "mid tier" parties
I can just about see the Libs getting 5% but I cant see Plaid leaping from 2.5% to 11% in a overwhelmingly English speaking seat and I cant see UKIP jumping from 2.5% to 7% when they're already losing 2% to the Brexit party Greens on 4% is too high as well, more like 2%
I think Plaid and UKIP will be down in the 3-5% territory with the Libs and Lab and the Tories will be in the high 30's with the winner breaking 40%
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Post by finsobruce on Apr 2, 2019 16:35:04 GMT
Would be funny if Abolish The Welsh Assembly beats Plaid Cymru Very unlikely but a valuable comedy politics thought. |
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Post by greenhert on Apr 2, 2019 16:58:04 GMT
My prediction (answers given to one decimal place):
Labour 49.2
Conservative 31.5
Plaid Cymru 4.2
Green 4.2
Liberal Democrats 3.4
Abolish the Welsh Assembly 3.0
UKIP 2.0
Renew 1.5
For Britain 0.5
Democrats & Veterans 0.3
SDP 0.2
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Apr 2, 2019 17:02:59 GMT
LAB HOLD 6,000 Maj.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Apr 2, 2019 17:20:42 GMT
Based on what turnout or are you plucking figures out of thin air just to generate posts? |
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jamie
Top Poster
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Post by jamie on Apr 2, 2019 17:24:30 GMT
Labour - 45%
Conservatives - 29%
UKIP - 8.5%
Plaid - 6.5%
Lib Dem’s - 4.5%
Greens - 2%
ATWA - 1.5%
Renew - 1.5%
DaV - 0.5%
For Britain - 0.5%
SDP - 0.5%
UKIP’s polling is up a lot on 2017 and this was one of their better constituencies so they should get in the high single digits.
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